Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NADINE-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2018 0 29.6N 109.5W 1004 23
1200UTC 13.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 22.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2018 0 34.3N 22.0W 964 73
1200UTC 13.10.2018 12 37.2N 14.5W 974 67
0000UTC 14.10.2018 24 41.4N 8.2W 985 54
1200UTC 14.10.2018 36 43.9N 4.0W 1000 41
0000UTC 15.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2018 0 16.4N 38.5W 1009 41
1200UTC 13.10.2018 12 16.0N 41.5W 1012 29
0000UTC 14.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N 134.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 108 11.5N 135.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 18.10.2018 120 12.2N 136.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 18.10.2018 132 12.5N 137.8W 1003 27
0000UTC 19.10.2018 144 13.0N 139.3W 1001 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 114.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 108 10.9N 114.8W 1007 23
0000UTC 18.10.2018 120 11.7N 114.3W 1006 24
1200UTC 18.10.2018 132 12.0N 113.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 19.10.2018 144 12.1N 112.3W 1005 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.0N 93.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 108 15.0N 93.3W 1003 34
0000UTC 18.10.2018 120 15.8N 95.2W 1000 36
1200UTC 18.10.2018 132 16.6N 98.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 19.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.2N 104.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2018 120 17.2N 104.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 18.10.2018 132 17.8N 105.7W 1001 30
0000UTC 19.10.2018 144 17.7N 106.1W 1002 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130356


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 130356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2018 29.6N 109.5W WEAK
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 22.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2018 34.3N 22.0W STRONG
12UTC 13.10.2018 37.2N 14.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 41.4N 8.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 43.9N 4.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2018 16.4N 38.5W WEAK
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.0N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N 134.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 11.5N 135.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.10.2018 12.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.5N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.0N 139.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 114.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 10.9N 114.8W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 11.7N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.0N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 12.1N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.0N 93.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 15.0N 93.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 15.8N 95.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 16.6N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.2N 104.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2018 17.2N 104.5W WEAK
12UTC 18.10.2018 17.8N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 17.7N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130356


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130232
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

ASCAT data indicate that Nadine no longer has a closed circulation
nor a well-defined center. This is also confirmed by low cloud
motions from GOES-16. Thus Nadine has degenerated into an open
wave, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind
speed is reduced to 30 kt to match the value from the scatterometer.
Strong shear should cause the remnants to slowly weaken as the
system moves quickly westward beneath the Atlantic subtropical
ridge.

Future information on the remnants of Nadine can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF NADINE
12H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...NO MORE NADINE, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 39.5W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Nadine were located near
latitude 16.0 North, longitude 39.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130231
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 39.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 39.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 38.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 39.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 122033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

The center of Nadine is now completely exposed to the west of a
waning area of deep convection due to 35-40 kt of southwesterly
shear. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers
from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt.
This could be a little generous, but hopefully ASCAT will sample
the system later this evening to provide a better idea of how much
the winds have weakened. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
from the previous one, and now shows Nadine becoming a depression by
12 hours and a remnant low by 24 hours, but both could happen
sooner.

The now shallow cyclone has turned west-northwestward, with an
initial motion estimate of 285/13. Nadine and its remnants should
move quickly westward in the low-level trade wind flow until
dissipation. The new NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.4N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.5N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.7N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...WEAKENING NADINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 37.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 37.7 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion
toward the west at a similar forward speed is expected tonight
through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Nadine is expected to weaken
to a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 122032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 39.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.7N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 37.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 121442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Strong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become
well removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the
center has become further removed from the convection since that
time, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this
advisory. The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist
over Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady
weakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner.

Nadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have
resumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt. As the storm
weakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and
accelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward
initial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC
track forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward
until dissipation occurs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.0N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...NADINE WEAKENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 36.2W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 36.2 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward speed
is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 121441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 36.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120846
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

A 0353 UTC AMSR-2 microwave overpass and GOES-16 shortwave infrared
imagery show that the 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear, depicted
in the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, is partially exposing, or
decoupling, Nadine's surface circulation from the convective mass.
The cloud pattern, however, hasn't changed during the past 6 hours
and in fact, the cloud top temperatures in the curved band over the
north semicircle have decreased somewhat. TAFB and SAB satellite
intensity estimates remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt.

The Decay SHIPS statistical intensity model indicates that the shear
will persist and increase a little more which should cause Nadine to
spin down and dissipate in 48 hours, or possibly sooner. The
large-scale models all show the cyclone opening up into a trough of
low pressure and ultimately dissipating over the deep tropical
central Atlantic at that time. The official forecast follows suit
and is an update of the previous advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7
kt. A low to mid-level ridge anchored between Nadine to the south
and Hurricane Leslie to the north, should steer the cyclone
west-northwestward and then westward at an accelerated pace until
dissipation. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a little
south and toward both the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.8N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...NADINE UNRAVELING...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 35.5W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the partially exposed center of Tropical
Storm Nadine was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 35.5
West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
expected to dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 35.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 35.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 35.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.4N 37.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 39.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 42.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120254
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Although Nadine remains under the influence of strong southwesterly
shear, a new burst of convection went up a few hours ago and covered
the low-level center again. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Even
stronger shear is expected to cause Nadine to weaken during the
next day or two, and the global models all agree that the system
will open up into a trough by 48 hours. The updated NHC forecast
is unchanged from the previous one.

Nadine is moving west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A low-level
ridge is forecast to steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then
westward at an increasing speed until it dissipates by 48 hours.
The new track guidance has bended slightly southwestward on this
cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that
direction toward the multi-model consensus aids and HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...NADINE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 35.5W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 35.5 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
expected to dissipate by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120253
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 35.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 35.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine continues to be strongly sheared. A brief burst of deep
convection occurred near the center of the cyclone a few hours ago,
but the center has since become exposed once again. The initial
intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based primary on the latest
TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Additional weakening is likely over the
next day or so while Nadine remains strongly sheared. The regional
and global models now show Nadine degenerating into a trough of low
pressure within 48 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward with an initial
speed of 7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Nadine will
continue on a similar heading and speed for the next 24 h or so,
before turning toward the west as it weakens. The NHC forecast has
been nudged to the southwest at most forecast points, and is
generally near the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.5N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.9N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.5N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...NADINE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 34.9W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 34.9 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward
the west with an increase in forward speed is anticipated by Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 112038
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 34.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.9N 36.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 111446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine is strongly sheared and the low-level center of the
tropical storm is now completely exposed, nearly 50 n mi to the
southwest of the nearest deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased since last night, so the intensity has
been lowered to 50 kt. This value is still on the high side of the
available intensity estimates, but Nadine's intensity has generally
been near the top of the intensity estimates for the past few days.

Steady weakening is still anticipated because the shear is forecast
by all models to increase further during the next day or two. By
72 h, if not sooner, all of the dynamical models forecast that
Nadine will have lost its deep convection and degenerated into a
trough of low pressure. No significant changes were made to the NHC
intensity forecast.

Nadine is still moving northwestward at 7 kt. Since Nadine's
surface circulation has become completely exposed and the vortex is
likely becoming very shallow, a quicker turn toward the
west-northwest and west is now shown in the official track forecast.
The track forecast has therefore been adjusted toward the southwest
at most forecast times, but is still close to HCCA and TVCN through
the short forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.1N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.8N 34.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 15.5N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 15.9N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 111445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...NADINE WEAKENING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 34.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 34.0 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest with a similar forward speed is expected later
today, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 111445
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 34.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 34.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 33.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.8N 34.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.5N 36.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110850
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine is a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located
near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT
pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt
range, and since the satellite appearance has not changed much, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. This value is near the high end
of the satellite-based intensity estimates. The environment near
Nadine is expected to become even more hostile during the next
couple of days due to the combined effects of strong west-
southwesterly shear and drier air. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and dissipation is expected to occur in 2 to 3 days when
the shear is forecast to be in excess of 30 kt. The models are in
good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast.

The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. Nadine is expected
to continue moving northwestward for about another day while the
tropical storm remains relatively deep, or vertically coherent.
After that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is
forecast to turn to the left in the low-level flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is not too
different than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.1N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...NADINE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 33.3W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 33.3 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is anticipated to continue during the next day or so. A turn
toward the west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110850
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.3W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.3W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 33.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 34.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 33.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Another burst of deep convection has formed near the center of
Nadine, which is typical in sheared tropical cyclones. A recent
ASCAT pass indicated several believable 50-55 kt winds, so the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The shear is
only forecast to increase over the next couple of days, which
should lead to weakening, especially by Friday. All of the dynamical
models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the weekend, and no significant changes were made to
the previous forecast.

Nadine continues to move northwestward due to a ridge near the Cabo
Verde Islands. This general course is forecast for the next day or
so until Nadine become a more shallow system, which should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. The previous
interpolated forecast came in basically on top of the new consensus
and corrected-consensus guidance, so the new track forecast is very
close to the previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.6N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.3N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...NADINE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 32.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 32.7 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the
west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65
mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110251
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 32.7W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 32.7W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 32.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 33.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 34.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 32.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 102038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

The exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from
beneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held
at 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible
that some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly
wind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better
organized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now
calls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical
models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows
dissipation occuring by that point.

Nadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of
315/7 kt. As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should
stay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good
agreement on its track. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA
consensus aids at all times. From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its
remnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection
and turn westward in low-level easterly flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 13.1N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 13.8N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.8N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.2N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 102038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...NADINE BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 32.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the
west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 102038
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 32.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 32.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 32.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.8N 32.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.8N 34.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 32.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 101449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Several microwave overpasses after 0600 UTC indicated that Nadine
very quickly developed a well-defined mid-level eye overnight.
This signature is typically associated with strengthening tropical
cyclones. Although more recent visible imagery indicates that strong
shear has since caused the cyclone to become tilted with height, a
pair of ASCAT passes around 1200 UTC indicated maximum winds of
45-50 kt. Given the small size of the tropical storm, the ASCAT
likely under-sampled the true maximum, so the initial intensity has
been raised to 55 kt. Due to limitations in our ability to observe
the intensity of small tropical storms far from land, it should be
noted that this estimate is fairly uncertain.

Since the tropical storm appears to have become more tilted since
last night, further strengthening is not likely. Shear analysis
from UW-CIMSS shows that Nadine is moving into a region of 20-30 kt
of westerly shear, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the shear
could increase to near 40 kt in another couple of days. All of the
intensity guidance indicates that Nadine will weaken quickly by
tomorrow, and it could become a depression by 72 h. Dissipation
will likely follow shortly after, as shown by nearly all of the
global and regional models.

The aforementioned ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the
center of Nadine at 1200 UTC, and the tropical storm is moving
northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next day or
two. By Friday, a turn toward the west will likely begin as the
low-level circulation of Nadine becomes separated from its
convection and turns westward in the low-level easterlies. Nadine
is essentially on the track of the previous NHC forecast, and no
significant changes to the track forecast were required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 12.6N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 13.5N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.7N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.5N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.5N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 101447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...NADINE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 31.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 31.6 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. A
turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today, with
weakening likely by tomorrow. Nadine is forecast to dissipate over
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 101447
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 31.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.5N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.6N 32.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.7N 33.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 35.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 39.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 31.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100835
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Nadine continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave images indicate
that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a
concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite
imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement
with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nadine has
about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable
atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN
guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period.
Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in
southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening. The combination of strong shear,
drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open
into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner.

The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the
center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track. A
continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the
next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the
east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in.
After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left
until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward
initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 12.8N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.9N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 38.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100834
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 31.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 31.1 West. Nadine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to
occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100834
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 31.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 31.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 30.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.8N 31.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.1N 33.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 38.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 31.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Deep convection has been increasing in the eastern semicircle of
Nadine, with the center close to the western edge of large
convective band. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved
in the past several hours, although the outflow is limited west of
the center. While subjective estimates are unchanged from the last
advisory, microwave-based estimates suggest Nadine is somewhat
stronger, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt. Light or
moderate shear is anticipated during the next day or so, along
with sufficiently warm waters, which should promote strengthening.
However, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that
time, which will likely cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later
on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. The most
significant change is that the model guidance is notably higher
than the last cycle, with a few models even making Nadine a
hurricane eventually. That seems unlikely given the strength of
the forecast shear, but the forecast is nudged higher than the
previous one and the model consensus.

Nadine continues to turn rightward and is now moving northwestward
at about 7 kt. This general course is forecast for the next couple
of days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde
Islands. After that time, a west-northwestward or westward turn is
expected as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates. The
model spread is still fairly wide, with the stronger guidance
generally on the eastern side of the model envelope, and the weaker
guidance on the western side. There is definitely a slight trend
to the northeast with the latest model guidance, and since we are
expecting a stronger system, the official forecast is adjusted in
that direction, but not nearly as far to the right as most of the
GFS-based guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 11.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.3N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 13.4N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.8N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 17.5N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 31.0W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 31.0 West. Nadine is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
is expected for the next couple of days, with a turn to the
west-northwest possible on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or
so, with weakening anticipated on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100256
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 31.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 31.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 30.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.3N 31.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.4N 32.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 33.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 31.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 092031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Nadine is a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon with the center
partially exposed on the southwestern side of an increasing area of
convection. Dvorak estimates are unchanged since earlier, so the
initial wind speed remains 35 kt. The shear is forecast to remain
low enough to support strengthening during the next day or so, along
with sufficiently warm waters. However, Nadine should encounter a
large upper trough after that time, which should cause weakening to
begin on Thursday. Later on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are
expected to cause Nadine to degenerate into a trough of low pressure
by the weekend. Model guidance is in fair agreement on this
scenario, and the new NHC prediction is close to the previous one
and the model consensus.

Satellite imagery today shows that Nadine has turned rightward and
is moving 300/7. A northwestward track should begin overnight and
continue for the next few days due to steering from a mid-level
ridge near the Cabo Verde Islands. A westward turn is expected
beyond day 3 as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates. The
track forecast isn't super confident because it is somewhat
dependent on the intensity. For example, a stronger cyclone like the
GFS shows would have the potential to move more toward the north-
northwest as it attempts to remain a vertically coherent system.
Since Nadine isn't expected to get very strong, the official
forecast will stay near or just south of the model consensus, which
results in no significant change to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 10.9N 30.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 11.6N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 12.6N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 092030
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...NADINE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 30.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 30.6 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a motion
generally toward the northwest is anticipated over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so,
with weakening anticipated on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 092030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 30.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 30.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 30.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.6N 31.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.7N 33.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 30.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 091435
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

The cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps
around the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used
for the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The
environment appears conducive for some additional strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally
light to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear
increases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below
27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all
of the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days.
The NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various
consensus aids through the forecast period.

Based on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine
currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will
weaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs
southward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to
turn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine
should bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new
initial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to
the TVCA multi-model consensus after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 10.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.1N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 11.9N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.3N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.7N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NADINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 30.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 30.0 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast on Wednesday
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Wednesday, with weakening expected to begin by early Thursday.
Nadine is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 091434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 30.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 30.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.1N 31.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.9N 32.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.0N 33.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 34.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.7N 36.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 30.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 090952
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the
low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth
one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications
from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a
little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable
oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant
increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the
depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official
forecast predicts dissipation accordingly.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a
well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The
depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in
that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves
toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that
Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and
becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models
are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090951
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 29.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 29.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected tonight and that
general motion should continue on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 090951
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018
1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 29.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 29.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI