Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OSCAR-18
in Iceland, Ireland, United Kingdom, Faroe Islands, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Norway, Sweden

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-11-01 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 010355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 8.3N 129.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.11.2018 0 8.3N 129.7W 1010 21
1200UTC 01.11.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.11.2018 0 40.3N 48.9W 969 57
1200UTC 01.11.2018 12 44.9N 45.0W 967 53
0000UTC 02.11.2018 24 49.0N 38.7W 969 48
1200UTC 02.11.2018 36 53.2N 33.8W 958 53
0000UTC 03.11.2018 48 54.7N 27.1W 953 59
1200UTC 03.11.2018 60 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.5N 110.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.11.2018 36 14.8N 110.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 03.11.2018 48 15.2N 109.2W 1001 35
1200UTC 03.11.2018 60 15.3N 108.0W 997 44
0000UTC 04.11.2018 72 15.6N 106.9W 990 51
1200UTC 04.11.2018 84 16.7N 106.2W 975 58
0000UTC 05.11.2018 96 18.0N 106.0W 971 65
1200UTC 05.11.2018 108 19.6N 105.8W 975 68
0000UTC 06.11.2018 120 21.7N 105.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 06.11.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.7N 118.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2018 60 12.4N 118.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 04.11.2018 72 13.1N 118.4W 1005 37
1200UTC 04.11.2018 84 13.1N 118.6W 1003 38
0000UTC 05.11.2018 96 13.9N 118.4W 1002 34
1200UTC 05.11.2018 108 14.4N 119.0W 1000 34
0000UTC 06.11.2018 120 15.7N 119.1W 998 40
1200UTC 06.11.2018 132 17.0N 119.1W 1000 35
0000UTC 07.11.2018 144 18.1N 119.1W 1003 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010355

>

2018-11-01 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 010355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 8.3N 129.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2018 8.3N 129.7W WEAK
12UTC 01.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2018 40.3N 48.9W STRONG
12UTC 01.11.2018 44.9N 45.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.0N 38.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 53.2N 33.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 54.7N 27.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.5N 110.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.11.2018 14.8N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 15.2N 109.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 15.3N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2018 15.6N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2018 16.7N 106.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2018 18.0N 106.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2018 19.6N 105.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 21.7N 105.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.7N 118.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2018 12.4N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2018 13.1N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 13.1N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.9N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 14.4N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 15.7N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 17.0N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 18.1N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010355

>

2018-10-31 20:39

WTNT41 KNHC 312034
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has
become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central
convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud
features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show
hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that
the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous
overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65
kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy
wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far
northeastern Atlantic.

The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should
move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward
speed.

Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the
size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-31 20:38

WTNT31 KNHC 312034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-31 20:38

WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT...360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2018-10-31 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 311555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.4N 127.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2018 0 10.4N 127.6W 1010 19
0000UTC 01.11.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2018 0 35.0N 52.4W 977 53
0000UTC 01.11.2018 12 40.6N 48.9W 962 61
1200UTC 01.11.2018 24 44.8N 44.6W 964 55
0000UTC 02.11.2018 36 49.0N 38.5W 968 47
1200UTC 02.11.2018 48 53.3N 33.1W 960 53
0000UTC 03.11.2018 60 55.0N 25.7W 954 58
1200UTC 03.11.2018 72 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.7N 109.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2018 60 15.2N 108.7W 1003 33
1200UTC 03.11.2018 72 15.6N 107.6W 1000 37
0000UTC 04.11.2018 84 16.4N 106.6W 996 43
1200UTC 04.11.2018 96 17.5N 105.5W 986 52
0000UTC 05.11.2018 108 18.8N 104.7W 984 54
1200UTC 05.11.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.7N 119.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2018 72 13.6N 119.2W 1006 32
0000UTC 04.11.2018 84 13.9N 119.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 04.11.2018 96 14.1N 118.6W 1000 43
0000UTC 05.11.2018 108 14.5N 118.3W 995 43
1200UTC 05.11.2018 120 15.3N 117.6W 991 48
0000UTC 06.11.2018 132 16.1N 117.0W 992 45
1200UTC 06.11.2018 144 16.9N 116.7W 1000 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311555

>

2018-10-31 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 311555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.4N 127.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2018 10.4N 127.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2018 35.0N 52.4W STRONG
00UTC 01.11.2018 40.6N 48.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 44.8N 44.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.0N 38.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 53.3N 33.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 55.0N 25.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.7N 109.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2018 15.2N 108.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 15.6N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 16.4N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 17.5N 105.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2018 18.8N 104.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.7N 119.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2018 13.6N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 13.9N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 14.1N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 14.5N 118.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2018 15.3N 117.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 16.1N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 16.9N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311555

>

2018-10-31 14:36

WTNT41 KNHC 311432
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

Oscar is quickly transforming into an extratropical low. Although
there is still a little bit of deep convection just north of the
center, a more prominent cloud shield extends northward from the
western part of the circulation. In addition, GOES-16 derived
products show Oscar's center nearly embedded within a frontal zone
and cold air advection occurring on the back side of the system.
The maximum winds are a bit uncertain, but for now they are held at
65 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB and
the latest microwave estimates, which range from 60-70 kt.

Oscar is expected to complete extratropical transition later today
when it becomes fully attached to the frontal boundary. Baroclinic
energy is likely to keep the cyclone's intensity relatively steady
for the next 48 hours or so, although it should be noted that the
GFS shows some intensification later today as a sting jet develops
to the west of the center. After 48 hours, the post-tropical
cyclone is expected to gradually lose strength, and the NHC
intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the GFS model,
which is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Despite this
weakening, Oscar's wind field is expected to grow substantially,
affecting a large portion of the north Atlantic Ocean over the next
several days.

A northeastward acceleration continues with an initial motion of
035/25 kt. Further acceleration toward the north Atlantic is
expected during the next 48 hours while Oscar becomes more fully
embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The new NHC track forecast
was shifted slightly northward and westward from the previous
forecast to trend closer to the latest consensus aids, but
otherwise the track forecast reasoning remains unchanged.

Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions
of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products
from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 36.6N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 44.5N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 48.4N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 52.1N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 57.8N 18.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 64.0N 5.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-31 14:36

WTNT31 KNHC 311432
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

...OSCAR DOING A QUICK COSTUME CHANGE INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
LOW...
...HIGH SURF TO CONTINUE ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 51.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 51.6 West. Oscar is
accelerating toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and an
even faster motion toward the northeast or north-northeast over the
north Atlantic Ocean is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean later today. Although gradual
weakening is expected during the next several days, Oscar is
expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the
north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
today. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-31 14:35

WTNT21 KNHC 311431
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 270SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 110SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 390SE 360SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 48.4N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 110SW 70NW.
34 KT...330NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.1N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...360NE 450SE 400SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 57.8N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...390NE 480SE 480SW 420NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 64.0N 5.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 51.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-10-31 08:47

WTNT41 KNHC 310842
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

Oscar continues to become less tropical-looking in appearance.
Central convection is now minimal, and the overall cloud pattern is
quite asymmetric, with the main area of dense overcast over the
western portion of the circulation, stretching northward over an
approaching frontal boundary. The current intensity estimate is 65
kt in accord with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB and SAB. Oscar is expected to merge with the nearby front in
12-18 hours, by which time the global models depict considerable
cold and warm advection around the center. This indicates that
Oscar will become an extratropical cyclone tonight, but energy from
baroclinic processes will likely maintain the system near hurricane
strength for the next couple of days. Only gradual weakening is
expected thereafter and post-tropical Oscar will likely be a strong
cyclone for the next 4 days or so. Post-tropical Oscar is forecast
to merge with another extratropical cyclone at high latitudes over
the weekend. The official intensity forecast is close to the
latest GFS prediction, which should be appropriate for a
mid-latitude system.

Oscar is moving quickly toward the northeast, or 035/19 kt. The
hurricane is being steered by the flow on the eastern side of a
trough that is passing through Atlantic Canada. In a day or so,
post-tropical Oscar should become embedded within the trough and
move rapidly northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the
north-central and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in
fairly good agreement, aside from some speed differences in the
latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast is close
to the latest dynamical model consensus, and is similar to the
previous NHC track.

Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions
of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products
from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 34.1N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 37.6N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 42.2N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1800Z 46.0N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0600Z 49.7N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 56.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 61.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-31 08:39

WTNT31 KNHC 310835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 53.6W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 53.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster north-
northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by tonight. Although gradual
weakening is expected during the next several days, Oscar is
expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the
north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
today. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-31 08:38

WTNT21 KNHC 310834
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 53.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 53.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 54.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 37.6N 50.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.2N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 49.7N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 50NW.
34 KT...420NE 480SE 480SW 420NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 61.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 53.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2018-10-31 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 310356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.10.2018 0 11.4N 126.0W 1009 20
1200UTC 31.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 56.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.10.2018 0 31.6N 56.2W 973 60
1200UTC 31.10.2018 12 35.0N 52.3W 967 59
0000UTC 01.11.2018 24 40.8N 48.5W 954 65
1200UTC 01.11.2018 36 45.0N 44.5W 957 54
0000UTC 02.11.2018 48 49.6N 38.2W 963 47
1200UTC 02.11.2018 60 53.6N 34.0W 956 48
0000UTC 03.11.2018 72 54.9N 27.9W 952 58
1200UTC 03.11.2018 84 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.2N 109.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.11.2018 60 15.2N 109.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 03.11.2018 72 15.6N 109.0W 1003 34
1200UTC 03.11.2018 84 15.7N 107.8W 999 41
0000UTC 04.11.2018 96 16.1N 106.6W 996 43
1200UTC 04.11.2018 108 16.7N 105.1W 993 46
0000UTC 05.11.2018 120 17.6N 104.5W 989 53
1200UTC 05.11.2018 132 18.5N 104.7W 995 50
0000UTC 06.11.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.3N 118.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2018 72 13.3N 118.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 03.11.2018 84 14.0N 118.2W 1004 37
0000UTC 04.11.2018 96 14.1N 118.1W 1001 42
1200UTC 04.11.2018 108 14.2N 118.1W 997 42
0000UTC 05.11.2018 120 14.5N 117.7W 987 50
1200UTC 05.11.2018 132 15.3N 117.4W 982 60
0000UTC 06.11.2018 144 16.3N 117.0W 982 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 129.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2018 96 11.4N 129.2W 1007 25
1200UTC 04.11.2018 108 11.4N 129.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 05.11.2018 120 11.9N 129.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 05.11.2018 132 12.1N 130.4W 1005 27
0000UTC 06.11.2018 144 12.5N 131.2W 1005 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310356

>

2018-10-31 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 310356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.10.2018 11.4N 126.0W WEAK
12UTC 31.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 56.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.10.2018 31.6N 56.2W STRONG
12UTC 31.10.2018 35.0N 52.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 40.8N 48.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 45.0N 44.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.6N 38.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 53.6N 34.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 54.9N 27.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.2N 109.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.11.2018 15.2N 109.5W WEAK
00UTC 03.11.2018 15.6N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 15.7N 107.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2018 16.1N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 16.7N 105.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 17.6N 104.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 18.5N 104.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.3N 118.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2018 13.3N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 14.0N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 14.1N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 14.2N 118.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2018 14.5N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2018 15.3N 117.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2018 16.3N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 129.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2018 11.4N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 11.4N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 11.9N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 12.1N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 12.5N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310356

>

2018-10-31 02:36

WTNT41 KNHC 310232
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

While conventional satellite imagery continues to show an area of
deep convection over the center of Oscar, recent microwave data
suggest that the inner core has become fragmented and that the
circulation is tilted from southwest to northeast. The overall
cloud pattern has also expanded northward as Oscar begins to
interact with a frontal zone that is approaching the system from
the northwest. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity (CI) numbers yields an initial wind speed of 70 kt for
this advisory. Oscar will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into
an area of higher vertical wind shear tonight and Wednesday which
is likely to cause some additional weakening during that time. The
hurricane should complete its extratropical transition in about 24
hours, and the dynamical models indicate that the post-tropical
cyclone is likely to maintain 60-65 kt winds for at least another
couple of days. Some weakening is expected by 96 hours before the
system merges with another low pressure area over the far
northeastern Atlantic.

Oscar has turned northeastward and continues to accelerate. An
additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next
day or two, as the cyclone becomes embedded within deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Late in the
period, the post-tropical low is forecast to slow down over the
northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, except for some forward speed differences late in the
period. The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various
consensus aids and very similar to the previous advisory.

Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions
of the coast of Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 32.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1200Z 44.3N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0000Z 48.2N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0000Z 55.2N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 61.0N 12.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-10-31 02:35

WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR CONTINUES ACCELERATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 55.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 55.2 West. Oscar is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster north-
northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast during the
next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful
post-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean
by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-10-31 02:35

WTNT21 KNHC 310231
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0300 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 55.2W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 330SE 450SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 55.2W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.3N 44.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 48.2N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 55.2N 24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 50NW.
34 KT...420NE 480SE 480SW 420NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 61.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2018-10-30 20:36

WTNT31 KNHC 302032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR ACCELERATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 56.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 56.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion
in the same general direction is expected through Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful
post-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-30 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 301556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.10.2018 0 9.6N 124.0W 1009 18
0000UTC 31.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.10.2018 0 29.0N 57.9W 964 78
0000UTC 31.10.2018 12 31.7N 56.5W 966 65
1200UTC 31.10.2018 24 35.4N 52.7W 963 60
0000UTC 01.11.2018 36 41.0N 48.9W 952 62
1200UTC 01.11.2018 48 45.2N 44.1W 958 54
0000UTC 02.11.2018 60 49.8N 37.7W 966 48
1200UTC 02.11.2018 72 53.1N 31.8W 955 58
0000UTC 03.11.2018 84 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.8N 128.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2018 60 11.1N 128.0W 1006 24
1200UTC 02.11.2018 72 11.4N 127.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 03.11.2018 84 12.2N 127.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 03.11.2018 96 12.4N 128.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 04.11.2018 108 12.8N 128.2W 1006 26
1200UTC 04.11.2018 120 12.5N 129.1W 1005 29
0000UTC 05.11.2018 132 12.5N 129.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 05.11.2018 144 13.0N 130.7W 1003 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.9N 113.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2018 108 14.7N 113.3W 1002 41
1200UTC 04.11.2018 120 15.7N 112.1W 998 41
0000UTC 05.11.2018 132 16.6N 112.5W 997 47
1200UTC 05.11.2018 144 17.0N 113.2W 995 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301556

>

2018-10-30 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 301556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.10.2018 9.6N 124.0W WEAK
00UTC 31.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.10.2018 29.0N 57.9W STRONG
00UTC 31.10.2018 31.7N 56.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2018 35.4N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2018 41.0N 48.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 45.2N 44.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.8N 37.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 53.1N 31.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.8N 128.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2018 11.1N 128.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 11.4N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 12.2N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 12.4N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 12.8N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 12.5N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 12.5N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 13.0N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.9N 113.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2018 14.7N 113.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2018 15.7N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 16.6N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 17.0N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301556

>

2018-10-30 14:39

WTNT41 KNHC 301435
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

Cloud-top temperatures have warmed a bit overall, and the convective
pattern is becoming more asymmetric as dry air is infiltrating the
southern and eastern part of Oscar's circulation. However, the
hurricane is still producing plenty of inner-core convection and
some lightning strikes. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB still support maximum winds of 90-100 kt, but objective
numbers are much lower (65-75 kt), so Oscar's initial intensity is
lowered slightly to 85 kt.

Increasing shear and stronger upper-level divergence will likely
offset each other in the short term, causing Oscar to maintain its
intensity or only slightly weaken during the next 24 hours.
However, a cold front is quickly approaching Oscar from the
northwest, and their interaction is expected to cause Oscar to
complete extratropical transition and become fully embedded within
the frontal zone in about 36 hours. Oscar's winds should gradually
diminish after it becomes extratropical, but the NHC official
forecast remains above the various consensus aids from 36 hours and
beyond and lies closest to the GFS and ECMWF global models, which
should have a good handle on the cyclone's structure during the
post-tropical phase.

Oscar continues to accelerate and has turned north-northeastward,
or 020/12 kt, while entering the flow between a large high over the
eastern/central Atlantic and a mid-latitude trough now moving over
the western Atlantic. Oscar is expected to become embedded within
the trough by 36 hours (the completion of extratropical transition),
with the entire system becoming a cut-off low north of the jet
stream by days 4 and 5. The track models are in fairly good
agreement on Oscar's future path, but there are speed differences
by the end of the forecast period. Of particular note, the ECMWF
is much faster than the other models, showing a more progressive
pattern on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to the
previous official forecast to maintain continuity, but it is still
faster than the GFS, HWRF, and the TVCN multi-model consensus at
day 5.

Large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 29.7N 57.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 31.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 40.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1200Z 45.1N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z 52.6N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z 59.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 63.5N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-30 14:39

WTNT31 KNHC 301435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Oscar is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days,
but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over
the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-30 14:39

WTNT21 KNHC 301435
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 57.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 57.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.6N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.1N 44.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.6N 31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...330NE 390SE 360SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 59.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 63.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 57.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-10-30 08:38

WTNT41 KNHC 300834
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

Oscar's eye is less distinct on infrared satellite imagery than it
was several hours ago. Conventional and microwave imagery suggest
that the center is tilted a bit to the northeast with height, and
there continues to be some erosion of convection over the
southwestern quadrant of the hurricane. This is indicative of some
southwesterly shear over the system, and Oscar does not appear
likely to strengthen further. The current intensity is held at 90
kt based on a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB. Model guidance indicates that the shear will not increase
further until tonight, so the intensity is held steady for the next
12 hours. After that time, south-southwesterly shear if forecast to
increase and become quite high in 36-48 hours. Around that time,
global models show Oscar interacting with a frontal zone, and
causing significant warm and cold air advection around the center,
indicating the transition to a vigorous extratropical cyclone.
Not surprisingly, the global guidance also shows a substantial
increase in the size of the system during and after the
extratropical transformation, and this is reflected in the NHC wind
radii forecasts.

Oscar is beginning to move faster, just to the east of due north, or
around 010/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast
reasoning from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days,
Oscar should continue to accelerate, toward the north-northeast,
in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-latitude trough that has
just moved off the United States east coast. Later in the period,
post-tropical Oscar should become more embedded within the trough
and in the mid-latitude westerlies, and move northeastward over the
northeastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to
the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions.

Large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.6N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 34.0N 54.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 43.5N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0600Z 50.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 57.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 63.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-30 08:36

WTNT31 KNHC 300832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 58.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 58.2 West. Oscar is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The hurricane is forecast
to accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight.
Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the
north-central Atlantic by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-30 08:35

WTNT21 KNHC 300831
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 58.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 58.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 58.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 43.5N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 57.5N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 63.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 58.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2018-10-30 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 300358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2018 0 11.7N 111.2W 1009 18
1200UTC 30.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 121.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2018 0 10.1N 121.0W 1009 17
1200UTC 30.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2018 0 27.0N 58.1W 957 77
1200UTC 30.10.2018 12 29.3N 57.9W 953 82
0000UTC 31.10.2018 24 32.0N 56.3W 960 71
1200UTC 31.10.2018 36 35.6N 52.3W 959 66
0000UTC 01.11.2018 48 41.3N 48.5W 951 63
1200UTC 01.11.2018 60 45.2N 44.5W 954 54
0000UTC 02.11.2018 72 48.9N 38.7W 963 48
1200UTC 02.11.2018 84 53.4N 32.4W 961 47
0000UTC 03.11.2018 96 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 126.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.11.2018 48 11.0N 126.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 01.11.2018 60 11.1N 127.1W 1006 28
0000UTC 02.11.2018 72 11.4N 127.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.11.2018 84 11.1N 127.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 03.11.2018 96 11.7N 127.5W 1005 25
1200UTC 03.11.2018 108 12.5N 127.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 04.11.2018 120 12.7N 128.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 04.11.2018 132 12.8N 128.7W 1006 29
0000UTC 05.11.2018 144 13.2N 129.6W 1005 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N 114.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2018 108 16.0N 115.0W 1004 34
0000UTC 04.11.2018 120 16.1N 113.7W 1001 42
1200UTC 04.11.2018 132 16.6N 113.4W 992 53
0000UTC 05.11.2018 144 17.0N 113.9W 981 56


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357

>

2018-10-30 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 300357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2018 11.7N 111.2W WEAK
12UTC 30.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 121.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2018 10.1N 121.0W WEAK
12UTC 30.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2018 27.0N 58.1W INTENSE
12UTC 30.10.2018 29.3N 57.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2018 32.0N 56.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 35.6N 52.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2018 41.3N 48.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 45.2N 44.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 48.9N 38.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 53.4N 32.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 126.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2018 11.0N 126.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 11.1N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 11.4N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 11.1N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 11.7N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 12.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 12.7N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 12.8N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.2N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N 114.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2018 16.0N 115.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 16.1N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 16.6N 113.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2018 17.0N 113.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357

>

2018-10-30 02:46

WTNT41 KNHC 300242
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

The satellite presentation of Oscar continued to improved after
the release of the previous advisory, with the small eye becoming
a little more distinct around 0000 UTC, but it has again become
cloud filled within the past hour or so. Recent microwave imagery
continues to depict a tiny eye with a solid ring of deep convection
surrounding it, but there is little outer banding over the
southwestern portion of the circulation likely due to shear and
dry air. Objective satellite intensity estimates which may be
having trouble discerning the small eye are around 80 kt, while
subjective T-numbers range from T5.0 from SAB to T5.5 from TAFB.
As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt
for this advisory.

Although the NHC intensity forecast does not explicitly show
additional strengthening, Oscar has another 12 hours or so over
SSTs of 26-26.5 deg C in which some slight intensification could
occur. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
waters along the forecast track should cause the hurricane to weaken
gradually as extratropical transition begins. Oscar is forecast to
complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours, and remain a
powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for much of
the forecast period. The global models indicate that Oscar's wind
field will quickly expand during its transition to a post-tropical
cyclone, and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

The hurricane has been moving slightly east of due north or 010/8
kt. Oscar is forecast to begin to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving over
the western Atlantic on Tuesday. The hurricane should be well
embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the
trough by Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the cyclone is expected to
move rapidly northeastward across the north-central and northeastern
Atlantic later this week. There has been little change to the
guidance envelope, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially
an update of the previous advisory. The official forecast again
lies near the various consensus aids and is near the middle of the
tightly clustered model guidance.

Although Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas,
large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.4N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 28.8N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 31.5N 55.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 35.3N 52.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 40.1N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0000Z 49.1N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 56.2N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z 62.5N 9.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-10-30 02:45

WTNT31 KNHC 300240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 58.3 West. Oscar is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible
tonight and early Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.
Oscar is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low over the
north-central Atlantic by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-10-30 02:44

WTNT21 KNHC 300240
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 58.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 150SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 58.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 57.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.5N 55.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.3N 52.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.1N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.1N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.2N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 62.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 58.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2018-10-29 20:36

WTNT41 KNHC 292032
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

The overall cloud pattern of Oscar is somewhat asymmetrical, and
convective banding is limited to the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone. However, recent visible and microwave imagery indicate
that tight eyewall of the hurricane is still very well defined,
despite the 20 kt or more of westerly shear analyzed in SHIPS and
UW-CIMSS diagnostics. It appears that the shear is not having much
of an affect on Oscar's inner-core, and in fact the small eye of the
hurricane has become better defined over the past 6 hours. Recent
objective and subjective intensity estimates support an intensity of
75-80 kt, and given the small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of
Oscar, it seems more appropriate to round up, yielding an estimated
intensity of 80 kt.

All of the dynamical intensity guidance calls for additional
intensification in the short term. Persistent lightning inside the
hurricane's RMW during the past several hours also supports the
notion of additional strengthening, as this signal has been
associated with intensifying hurricanes in the past. By 24 h and
beyond, Oscar will likely level off in intensity and then begin to
weaken while it moves over much cooler SSTs and begins extratropical
transition. Although this process will likely result in a rapid
expansion of Oscar's tropical-storm-force wind field, it should also
cause the maximum winds associated with the cyclone to steadily
decrease through the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and generally follows IVCN
through the forecast period.

Oscar's eye has wobbled during the past several hours, but the
hurricane appears to have already begun its expected turn toward the
north. The hurricane is essentially on-track, and no major changes
were required to the NHC track forecast. A large mid-latitude
trough to the west will likely cause Oscar to accelerate
north-northeastward or northeastward beginning by late Tuesday, and
then rapidly move across the northern central Atlantic in that
direction. The global models are in reasonably good agreement on
the speed and heading of Oscar through day 5, which is somewhat
unusual for a recurving cyclone. The new official track forecast is
based on a blend of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus
aids, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.

Although Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas,
large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.9N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 37.3N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 46.7N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 54.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 60.0N 12.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-29 20:35

WTNT31 KNHC 292031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR TURNS NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 58.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the small eye of Hurricane Oscar was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight and Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-29 20:35

WTNT21 KNHC 292031
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 58.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 58.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.9N 57.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 37.3N 50.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.7N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 54.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 60.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 58.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-10-29 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 291556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.0N 118.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2018 0 9.0N 118.7W 1008 21
0000UTC 30.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2018 0 11.3N 107.5W 1010 18
0000UTC 30.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2018 0 25.8N 58.1W 986 57
0000UTC 30.10.2018 12 27.0N 58.7W 984 56
1200UTC 30.10.2018 24 28.8N 58.4W 975 60
0000UTC 31.10.2018 36 31.1N 56.6W 970 62
1200UTC 31.10.2018 48 34.1N 52.7W 967 61
0000UTC 01.11.2018 60 39.1N 48.3W 956 82
1200UTC 01.11.2018 72 44.2N 43.8W 956 55
0000UTC 02.11.2018 84 47.5N 38.7W 961 52
1200UTC 02.11.2018 96 50.7N 31.7W 968 44
0000UTC 03.11.2018 108 54.0N 24.2W 960 51
1200UTC 03.11.2018 120 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 124.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2018 48 11.2N 124.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 01.11.2018 60 11.6N 125.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 01.11.2018 72 11.7N 126.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 02.11.2018 84 11.8N 126.3W 1001 33
1200UTC 02.11.2018 96 12.2N 126.3W 999 35
0000UTC 03.11.2018 108 12.9N 126.1W 997 37
1200UTC 03.11.2018 120 13.1N 126.3W 995 40
0000UTC 04.11.2018 132 13.3N 127.0W 998 46
1200UTC 04.11.2018 144 13.8N 128.0W 1002 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.6N 115.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2018 84 13.6N 115.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.11.2018 96 14.9N 115.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 03.11.2018 108 15.2N 115.3W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.11.2018 120 15.6N 114.8W 1001 38
0000UTC 04.11.2018 132 15.6N 114.1W 997 48
1200UTC 04.11.2018 144 16.4N 112.4W 978 63


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291556

>

2018-10-29 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 291556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.0N 118.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2018 9.0N 118.7W WEAK
00UTC 30.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2018 11.3N 107.5W WEAK
00UTC 30.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.8N 58.1W MODERATE
00UTC 30.10.2018 27.0N 58.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2018 28.8N 58.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 31.1N 56.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 34.1N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2018 39.1N 48.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 44.2N 43.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 47.5N 38.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 50.7N 31.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 54.0N 24.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 124.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2018 11.2N 124.9W WEAK
00UTC 01.11.2018 11.6N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2018 11.7N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 11.8N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 12.2N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 12.9N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 13.1N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 13.3N 127.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 13.8N 128.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.6N 115.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2018 13.6N 115.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.11.2018 14.9N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 15.2N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 15.6N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 15.6N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 16.4N 112.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291556

>

2018-10-29 14:38

WTNT41 KNHC 291434
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

Oscar's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve since the
previous advisory, with a small, cloud-filled eye now apparent in
visible satellite imagery and also in a recent SSMI/S microwave
pass. In addition, cirrus outflow has been expanding in all
quadrants, especially in the eastern semicircle. The initial
intensity of 75 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate
of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, a Data-T-number of T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and
an NHC objective intensity estimate of T4.4/75 kt. It is also worth
noting that bursts of lightning activity in the eastern eyewall have
been occurring since around 1100 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is now 285/06 kt. Oscar has slowed its
forward motion significantly and has made the advertised turn toward
the west-northwest. A motion toward the northwest is expected by
late afternoon today as the hurricane rounds the southwestern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge. A turns toward the north and then
toward the north-northeast are forecast on Tuesday as Oscar moves
north of the ridge axis ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer
trough currently approaching Bermuda. The trough is expected to
continue advancing eastward over the next couple of days,
accelerating Oscar toward the northeast at forward speeds near 25 kt
on Wednesday through Friday. Although a strong shortwave trough is
still forecast to dig southward to the west of Oscar on Wednesday,
none of the model guidance shows the hurricane being captured any
longer, and instead keep the cyclone as a separate entity that
accelerates northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as a
strong extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to an average of the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE and the simple consensus
models TVCA and TVCX.

Deep-layer (850-200 mb) shear calculations by the SHIPS model and
UW-CIMSS are at least 25 kt from the northwest, which clearly is not
negatively affecting the improving cirrus outflow. This is likely
due to the large 1000-km domain that the SHIPS model uses to compute
vertical wind shear. Furthermore, most of the cloud top temperatures
within the outflow layer appear to be mostly below the 200-mb level,
and closer to the 250-mb level. The large shear values are resulting
in much less intensification forecast by the SHIPS and LGEM
statistical-dynamical intensity models. As a result, the official
intensity forecast leans more toward the HCCA and FSSE models, which
are weighing more heavily the stronger intensity forecasts provided
by the HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models, which have Oscar
strengthening to just below major hurricane status in 24-36 hours.
By 48 hours and beyond, sharply decreasing SSTs along with
increasing southwesterly shear ahead of a deep-layer trough are
expected to cause Oscar to gradually weaken and transition to a
strong extratropical low in 60-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 25.8N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2018-10-29 14:38

WTNT31 KNHC 291434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a motion toward the north tonight. On Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase
in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate
quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2018-10-29 14:38

WTNT21 KNHC 291434
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 58.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 58.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 58.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2018-10-29 08:39

WTNT41 KNHC 290835
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

The cloud pattern of Oscar has continued to become better
organized, with a growing CDO and convective banding features
are better defined, especially over the southern semicircle of
the hurricane. Upper-level outflow is gradually becoming better
established to the south. Although the most recent Dvorak Current
Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 65 kt, given that the
eye is becoming better defined, the advisory intensity is set at 70
kt. Oscar is currently under some northerly to north-northwesterly
shear, but the shear is expected to diminish somewhat later today.
Also, the tropical cyclone is expected to move through a modestly
moist air mass for the next day or two. Therefore, additional
strengthening is forecast through 36 hours in agreement with the
latest intensity model consensus. Around 48 hours into the forecast
period, the shear begins to increase significantly, with notably
cooler SSTs. This should lead to the onset of a steady weakening
trend. By about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Oscar
will become embedded in a frontal zone, so the official forecast
shows the system becoming an extratropical cyclone at that time.

Oscar has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at about
270/11 kt. A mid-level high to the north of the cyclone is
expected to quickly shift eastward, while a mid-latitude trough
approaches Oscar from the west in a day or so. This evolution of
the steering flow should cause Oscar to turn northward to
north-northeastward in 24-48 hours. Later in the forecast period,
Oscar is likely to move quickly northeastward on the eastern side
of the trough. There has been some inconsistencies in the track
model guidance around 5 days over the last few forecast cycles,
with the model consensus, TVCN, shifting significantly southward and
then northward. The official forecast track is somewhat to the
left of the previous one near the end of the period, to reflect the
latest consensus prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.7N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.0N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 41.5N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 46.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-29 08:36

WTNT31 KNHC 290832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 57.8W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 57.8 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to
accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-29 08:35

WTNT21 KNHC 290831
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 57.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 57.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.1N 58.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 58.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 41.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 46.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 48.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2018-10-29 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 290356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 105.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2018 0 11.4N 105.0W 1009 19
1200UTC 29.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2018 0 25.5N 56.5W 987 52
1200UTC 29.10.2018 12 25.5N 58.2W 986 51
0000UTC 30.10.2018 24 26.7N 58.6W 982 56
1200UTC 30.10.2018 36 28.6N 58.2W 974 65
0000UTC 31.10.2018 48 31.3N 56.6W 965 69
1200UTC 31.10.2018 60 34.2N 53.4W 959 66
0000UTC 01.11.2018 72 38.8N 49.5W 952 77
1200UTC 01.11.2018 84 42.4N 45.1W 958 60
0000UTC 02.11.2018 96 45.2N 39.3W 975 53
1200UTC 02.11.2018 108 48.1N 31.0W 977 56
0000UTC 03.11.2018 120 52.2N 17.3W 974 54
1200UTC 03.11.2018 132 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 124.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.11.2018 72 11.5N 125.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 01.11.2018 84 11.4N 125.9W 1005 28
0000UTC 02.11.2018 96 11.5N 126.1W 1004 26
1200UTC 02.11.2018 108 12.1N 126.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 03.11.2018 120 13.2N 125.8W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.11.2018 132 13.9N 125.9W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.11.2018 144 14.4N 126.3W 1004 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.1N 115.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.11.2018 84 14.1N 115.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.11.2018 96 14.2N 115.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 02.11.2018 108 15.0N 116.0W 1003 33
0000UTC 03.11.2018 120 15.5N 115.8W 1000 37
1200UTC 03.11.2018 132 15.4N 114.7W 999 41
0000UTC 04.11.2018 144 15.8N 113.9W 996 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290356

>

2018-10-29 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 290356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 105.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2018 11.4N 105.0W WEAK
12UTC 29.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.5N 56.5W MODERATE
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.5N 58.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 26.7N 58.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 28.6N 58.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 31.3N 56.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 34.2N 53.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 38.8N 49.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 42.4N 45.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 45.2N 39.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 48.1N 31.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 52.2N 17.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 124.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2018 11.5N 125.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 11.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 11.5N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 12.1N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 13.2N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 13.9N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 14.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.1N 115.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.11.2018 14.1N 115.9W WEAK
00UTC 02.11.2018 14.2N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 15.0N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 15.5N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 15.4N 114.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 15.8N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290356

>

2018-10-29 02:49

WTNT41 KNHC 290245
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the structure of Oscar has changed
little over the past several hours. Microwave imagery has shown a
ring or eye feature which is at least partly encircled by deep
convection, and an eye has made occasional appearances in infrared
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the
initial intensity remains 65 kt. One change from the previous
advisory is that recent scatterometer data show that Oscar has
smaller 34-kt wind radii than previously thought, so the initial
and forecast wind radii have been modified.

The initial motion remains 270/14. Oscar is approaching the
western end of a large low- to mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic, and thus it should turn northwestward with a decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 h or so. From 24-72 h, the
hurricane should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on the
east side of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through the western
and central Atlantic. The models are in good agreement on the
forecast track through 72 h, then show significant differences based
on whether Oscar merges with a new cut-off low pressure area over
the central Atlantic or remains a separate system in the westerlies.
The latest GFS has joined the UKMET in showing Oscar racing
northeastward into the northeastern Atlantic by 120 h as a separate
system. In contrast, the HWRF and the FV3 models show a sharp turn
toward the south as the new low captures Oscar. The ECMWF is
between these extremes in showing a more gradual turn toward the
east well to the east of the HWRF/FV3 and well to the southwest of
the GFS/UKMET. The new forecast track is a little west of the
previous track in the early part of the forecast based on the
current position and motion. Later in the forecast period, it has
been shifted a little to the east in best agreement with the ECMWF.

Oscar is forecast to remain in a moist and unstable environment for
the next 36-48 h, and the trough approaching from the west is
likely to create a divergent outflow pattern. Based on this, the
intensity forecast now shows a faster rate of strengthening than
the previous advisory. After reaching its peak intensity in 36-48
h, it appears likely that the extratropical transition will occur
near the 72 h point before the winds drop below hurricane force.
After transition, Oscar is expected to gradually decay. It should
be noted that if the FV3 scenario verifies, Oscar may maintain
tropical cyclone status beyond 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.6N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.9N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.1N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 39.0N 48.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 45.0N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-29 02:49

WTNT31 KNHC 290245
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed are expected overnight, followed by
a turn toward the west-northwest early Monday and a northwestward
motion on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin
moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly
toward the northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, followed by
gradual weakening thereafter.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that Oscar has a small area of
strong winds. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles
(30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-29 02:48

WTNT21 KNHC 290244
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 57.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 120SE 120SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 57.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.1N 58.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 39.0N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2018-10-28 21:01

WTNT41 KNHC 282057
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that Oscar's
convective pattern has continued to improve overall today, with a
small eye having developed and been briefly evident between
1700-1800Z. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt
(TAFB and SAB) to T4.4/75 kt (UW-CIMSS ADT). The initial intensity
has been increased to 65 kt, which is just below the UW-CIMSS
SATCON consensus estimate of 68 kt.

Oscar is moving westward or 270/14 kt. The compact hurricane is
expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 36 hours or so, resulting in a
westward motion overnight, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest on Monday, with a slow motion toward
the north expected by early Tuesday. By late Tuesday and continuing
into Friday, Oscar is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate
ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough that currently lies
just east of the U.S. east coast. This large synoptic-scale feature
is expected to keep Oscar away from the United States, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda. The only fly-in-the-ointment concerning the track
forecast occurs on day 5 when a strong shortwave trough is forecast
to dig southward down the west side of Oscar, possibly capturing the
small cyclone over the north Atlantic and forcing it southward
instead of allowing the small hurricane to recurve deeper into the
high-latitude westerlies. All of the global and regional models are
now indicating this interaction, with the only difference being
whether Oscar remains a separate tropical system or merges with the
shortwave trough. For now, the new official forecast follows the
trend of the previous advisory and shows Oscar remaining a separate
entity, but slowing down considerably as an extratropical cyclone on
days 4 and 5, which is similar to that depicted by the consensus
models HCCA and TVCN.

Oscar is forecast to remain within an environment of mid- to
upper-level temperatures that are colder than average by 2-3 deg C
due to the cyclone still being embedded within the original parent
larger-scale upper-level low/trough. The combination of the below-
average environmental temperatures overlying relatively warm SSTs of
26.5 deg C will result in strong instability, which will aid the
generation of deep convection, especially overnight. Add in Oscar's
small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi, and conditions
appear to be conducive for continued strengthening. The shear
directly over the inner-core region is fairly low as noted by
anticyclonic cirrus outflow now apparent in visible and water vapor
imagery, a condition that also favors continued strengthening for
the next 48 hours or so. The HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models
bring Oscar to major hurricane strength by 48 hours, which isn't out
of the realm of possibilities based on the small RMW and expected
low vertical wind shear. However, the official intensity forecast
remains on the conservative side due to expected occasional
intrusions of very dry mid-level air, which could briefly interrupt
the intensification process. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing
southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is
expected to induce a weakening trend, which will be enhanced by
Oscar moving over sub-23 deg C SSTs shortly thereafter. The cold
SSTs are expected to aid the transition to a strong extratropical
cyclone. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, except to push forward the timing of peak intensity to 48
hours, and it is a little below the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus models due to the aforementioned dry air issues.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 25.7N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.1N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.2N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 30.7N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 38.0N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 45.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 45.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2018-10-28 21:00

WTNT31 KNHC 282056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday
afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the
north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the
northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2018-10-28 21:00

WTNT21 KNHC 282056
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 90SE 120SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.1N 57.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.2N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 38.0N 50.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 45.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 45.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2018-10-28 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 281556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 102.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2018 0 10.5N 102.5W 1009 20
0000UTC 29.10.2018 12 11.3N 104.7W 1009 20
1200UTC 29.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 53.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2018 0 25.3N 53.1W 994 45
0000UTC 29.10.2018 12 25.3N 56.5W 991 45
1200UTC 29.10.2018 24 25.4N 57.9W 989 46
0000UTC 30.10.2018 36 26.7N 58.6W 984 52
1200UTC 30.10.2018 48 28.3N 57.9W 976 57
0000UTC 31.10.2018 60 31.1N 56.1W 962 68
1200UTC 31.10.2018 72 33.9N 53.0W 961 62
0000UTC 01.11.2018 84 38.1N 49.2W 957 74
1200UTC 01.11.2018 96 41.0N 44.3W 964 60
0000UTC 02.11.2018 108 43.8N 37.1W 977 50
1200UTC 02.11.2018 120 46.8N 26.5W 978 71
0000UTC 03.11.2018 132 50.6N 14.5W 960 64
1200UTC 03.11.2018 144 54.7N 4.9W 966 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.6N 125.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.11.2018 96 11.4N 125.7W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.11.2018 108 12.3N 125.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 02.11.2018 120 12.9N 125.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 03.11.2018 132 13.9N 126.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 03.11.2018 144 14.5N 127.0W 1007 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 117.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.11.2018 96 13.9N 117.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 02.11.2018 108 14.8N 117.2W 1006 33
1200UTC 02.11.2018 120 16.2N 118.1W 1004 32
0000UTC 03.11.2018 132 17.0N 118.2W 1003 32
1200UTC 03.11.2018 144 17.3N 117.9W 1002 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281556

>

2018-10-28 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 281556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 102.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2018 10.5N 102.5W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2018 11.3N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 53.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2018 25.3N 53.1W MODERATE
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.3N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.4N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 26.7N 58.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 28.3N 57.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 31.1N 56.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 33.9N 53.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2018 38.1N 49.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2018 41.0N 44.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 43.8N 37.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 46.8N 26.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 50.6N 14.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.11.2018 54.7N 4.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.6N 125.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.11.2018 11.4N 125.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 12.3N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 12.9N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 13.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 14.5N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 117.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.11.2018 13.9N 117.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.11.2018 14.8N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 16.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2018 17.0N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2018 17.3N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281556

>

2018-10-28 14:54

WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Oscar since early
this morning and its low-level center is no longer exposed.
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed since last night and
the estimated intensity of 60 kt is above the various techniques.
The initial intensity estimate is based primarily on the latest
available ASCAT data from last night around 0100 UTC that showed
maximum winds of 55-60 kt. Given the recent increase in convection
observed near the center of Oscar, it seems unlikely that the winds
have decreased since that time. It is worth noting that the small
inner-core of Oscar increases the uncertainty of the intensity
estimate, and could make the cyclone susceptible to short term
intensity fluctuations that are nearly impossible to forecast or
precisely detect.

Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. The
tropical storm is moving over sufficiently warm water to support
intensification and it is located within a light to moderate shear
environment. All the intensity models forecast at least some
strengthening, and Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later
today or tonight, with some additional strengthening possible
through Wednesday. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin
soon thereafter, which will likely result in a decrease in the
maximum winds, even as the extent of tropical-storm-force winds
rapidly increases. This process is expected to be complete by 120 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the intensity
consensus IVCN at all forecast hours.

Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast
to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the
south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.
Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the
cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models
agree on this general scenario, though there are differences
regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature
and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.
That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-28 14:54

WTNT31 KNHC 281450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued westward
motion is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest late tonight or early Monday. By Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. The cyclone is then expected to quickly
accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast through the
middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days and Oscar is forecast to become a hurricane later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-28 14:53

WTNT21 KNHC 281449
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 53.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 60SE 120SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 53.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-10-28 08:39

WTNT41 KNHC 280834
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Deep convection near the center of Oscar has diminished somewhat
over the past several hours. However, there are tightly curved
cloud bands very near the center indicating a well-organized
cyclone. Given that the central convection has not increased, the
current intensity estimate is held at 55 kt which is a little above
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates but close to
the value indicated by the previous scatterometer data. Oscar
should remain in a moderate vertical shear environment, and over
26-27 deg C SSTs, for the next couple of days which would allow for
some strengthening. The official forecast is close to the latest
intensity model consensus and calls for the system to become a
hurricane soon. Near or just beyond 96 hours, the shear is forecast
to increase substantially and Oscar should begin to make the
transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The storm has been moving southwestward, or 235/13 kt, on the
southeastern side of a northeast to southwest-oriented mid-level
ridge. The ridge is likely to build to the north of Oscar within
12 to 24 hours, resulting in a turn toward the west. The cyclone
should then turn toward the northwest and north as the ridge shifts
eastward and a trough moves off the eastern U.S. coast. In the
latter half of the forecast period, the system should accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow ahead of the
trough. The official track forecast is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, and similar to the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.0N 52.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.4N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.9N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 34.6N 53.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 42.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 50.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-28 08:36

WTNT31 KNHC 280832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 52.6W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 52.6 West. Oscar is
moving toward the southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. After that,
Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north on Monday
night or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-10-28 08:35

WTNT21 KNHC 280831
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 52.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 60SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 52.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 56.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.9N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.6N 53.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 50.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2018-10-28 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 100.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2018 0 11.3N 100.4W 1009 17
1200UTC 28.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 51.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2018 0 26.0N 51.1W 985 63
1200UTC 28.10.2018 12 25.3N 53.3W 989 50
0000UTC 29.10.2018 24 25.4N 56.3W 985 53
1200UTC 29.10.2018 36 25.8N 58.1W 985 48
0000UTC 30.10.2018 48 27.0N 58.9W 983 54
1200UTC 30.10.2018 60 29.1N 58.2W 973 61
0000UTC 31.10.2018 72 32.4N 56.2W 961 67
1200UTC 31.10.2018 84 36.7N 52.9W 958 62
0000UTC 01.11.2018 96 41.4N 49.0W 952 66
1200UTC 01.11.2018 108 44.7N 43.1W 963 54
0000UTC 02.11.2018 120 49.0N 34.1W 970 49
1200UTC 02.11.2018 132 52.5N 25.3W 955 65
0000UTC 03.11.2018 144 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

2018-10-28 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 100.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2018 11.3N 100.4W WEAK
12UTC 28.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 51.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2018 26.0N 51.1W MODERATE
12UTC 28.10.2018 25.3N 53.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.4N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.8N 58.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 27.0N 58.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2018 29.1N 58.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 32.4N 56.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 36.7N 52.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2018 41.4N 49.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 44.7N 43.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.0N 34.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2018 52.5N 25.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.11.2018 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

2018-10-28 02:42

WTNT41 KNHC 280237
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Oscar has
become better organized, with increased banding around the low-
level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data indicate that
the system now has a relatively small wind field with a radius of
maximum winds of about 25 n mi. Although the cyclone is still
tangled up with the upper-level low to the point where it has not
yet developed the anticyclonic outflow of a tropical cyclone, the
convection and the wind field now justify calling the system a
tropical storm. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt
based on the scatterometer data, and it is possible this is a little
conservative.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 240/17, as the
short-term motion has been more toward the southwest or south. For
the next several hours, Oscar should continue to pivot around the
upper-level low to its east. Thereafter, it should turn more
westward with a decrease in forward speed on the south side of a
large ridge over the North Atlantic. After about 36 h, a large
deep-layer trough moving eastward across the western Atlantic
should cause Oscar to turn northwestward and northward, followed by
recurvature into the westerlies and acceleration. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario,
although by 120 h there is some spread in both the direction and
forward speed after recurvature. The new forecast track is near
the various consensus models, and the early part of it is shifted a
little to the south of the previous forecast due to the current
location and motion.

The global models suggest that the core of Oscar should mostly avoid
nearby strong upper-level winds through 24-36 h, and then encounter
strong upper-level divergence associated with the deep-layer trough.
While the environment is not ideal for a tropical cyclone,
conditions appear favorable for additional intensification, and the
intensity forecast now calls for Oscar to reach hurricane strength
in about 24 h. Interaction with the trough after 72 h should start
extratropical transition, which should be complete between 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 25.7N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25.2N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.8N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.2N 58.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 32.5N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 41.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 48.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-28 02:41

WTNT31 KNHC 280236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 51.4W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.4 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west-southwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the west and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. After that,
Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the
northeast Monday night or Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that Oscar has become a tropical storm and
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely
during the next couple of days, and Oscar is forecast to become a
hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-10-28 02:40

WTNT21 KNHC 280236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 90SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.2N 54.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.1N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.8N 58.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 58.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 48.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2018-10-27 20:36

WTNT41 KNHC 272032
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

Oscar is still located beneath an upper-level low, however it its
convective structure is now more reminiscent of a tropical cyclone.
Deep convection is primarily occuring in a small burst just south
of the center of Oscar, however this convective activity appears to
be displaced by light northerly shear associated with the upper-low.
Earlier AMSU sounding data indicated that the cyclone has developed
a weak but vertically deep warm core which also indicates that Oscar
is nearly a tropical cyclone, if it isn't one already. Oscar is
moving quickly westward away from the upper-low, and will likely
become a tropical storm later tonight if its current structural
trends continue.

The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, based primarily on the
latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB. The
intensity guidance has bounced back, and the most of the intensity
guidance is higher than it was six hours ago. While little change
was made to the NHC intensity forecast, it now lies very near the
intensity consensus at all forecast hours. Gradual intensification
is still expected and Oscar is forecast to approach hurricane
strength by Monday. Slight additional intensification is possible
through the middle of next week, until extratropical transition
occurs by 120 h.

Oscar moved very quickly westward this afternoon, but a more
representative motion estimate is 265/15 kt. The latest runs of the
typically reliable global models are in better agreement than they
were this morning. Oscar is forecast to move west-southwestward or
westward for the next day or two on the south side of a mid-level
ridge to the north. The cyclone is then expected to recurve and
accelerate northeastward ahead of a substantial mid-latitude trough
moving across the western and central Atlantic by the middle of next
week. The official track forecast has been adjusted westward to
bring it closer to the latest track consensus, especially for the
first 72 h of the forecast. By day 5, the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous advisory, but with a slightly slower forward
speed for Oscar.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 26.9N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-27 20:36

WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional
strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after
transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next
week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-27 20:36

WTNT21 KNHC 272032
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 50.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 50.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-10-27 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 271556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 99.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 0 11.0N 99.1W 1009 17
0000UTC 28.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 0 27.5N 48.0W 998 49
0000UTC 28.10.2018 12 26.1N 51.4W 989 57
1200UTC 28.10.2018 24 25.1N 53.4W 991 47
0000UTC 29.10.2018 36 25.5N 56.2W 988 49
1200UTC 29.10.2018 48 25.8N 57.7W 989 47
0000UTC 30.10.2018 60 27.4N 58.3W 985 54
1200UTC 30.10.2018 72 29.5N 57.5W 974 62
0000UTC 31.10.2018 84 33.0N 55.6W 963 71
1200UTC 31.10.2018 96 37.6N 52.4W 959 63
0000UTC 01.11.2018 108 42.5N 49.0W 953 59
1200UTC 01.11.2018 120 45.8N 43.3W 968 51
0000UTC 02.11.2018 132 48.4N 37.0W 969 60
1200UTC 02.11.2018 144 50.8N 27.4W 967 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.1N 125.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.11.2018 108 11.5N 125.6W 1007 25
1200UTC 01.11.2018 120 12.0N 126.6W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.11.2018 132 12.4N 126.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 02.11.2018 144 13.0N 126.7W 1009 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271556

>

2018-10-27 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 271556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 99.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 11.0N 99.1W WEAK
00UTC 28.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 27.5N 48.0W MODERATE
00UTC 28.10.2018 26.1N 51.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 25.1N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.5N 56.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.8N 57.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 27.4N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2018 29.5N 57.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 33.0N 55.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 37.6N 52.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 42.5N 49.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 45.8N 43.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 48.4N 37.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 50.8N 27.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.1N 125.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2018 11.5N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 12.0N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 12.4N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2018 13.0N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271556

>

2018-10-27 14:49

WTNT41 KNHC 271444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

Oscar's organization has improved this morning. Although the
subtropical storm is still entangled with an upper-level low,
convection has increased near the center of the cyclone since last
night. The most recent Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate
from TAFB has increased accordingly to 45-50 kt. Furthermore,
Canadian drifting buoy 47546 recently reported a minimum pressure of
just below 996 mb to the east of Oscar's center, suggesting the
central pressure of the cyclone has decreased since the last
advisory. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 50 kt for
this advisory.

Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. The GFS and
many of its associated models (HWRF, DSHP, LGEM) have changed
abruptly and forecast far less intensification than they did just 6
hours ago. However, the CTCI, HMON, and ECMWF-based statistical
guidance still show Oscar reaching hurricane strength within a few
days. Rather than chase a possible short-term trend in the intensity
guidance, the official intensity forecast will stay the course for
now and is a little above the intensity consensus, bringing Oscar to
hurricane strength in around 48 h. After that time, some slight
additional intensification is possible, but Oscar is ultimately
expected to undergo extratropical transition by the end of the
forecast period, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken.

Oscar has turned toward the west and the initial motion estimate is
now 270/11 kt. A west-southwestward motion is anticipated later
today as Oscar moves around the back side of an mid- to upper-level
trough over the central Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the west
on the south side of a subtropical ridge to the north. As long as
Oscar intensifies as forecast, it should turn sharply northeastward
early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough advancing across the
western and central Atlantic, and then accelerate in that direction
while undergoing extratropical transition. The GFS is an outlier,
showing a much weaker and vertically shallow cyclone that does not
fully recurve, but all of the other global models are in generally
good agreement with the scenario listed above. Despite the
inconsistency of the GFS, the model consensus has not changed
significantly since the last advisory, so only minor adjustments
were made to the NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 27.3N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 26.5N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.2N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 47.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-27 14:48

WTNT31 KNHC 271444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could
become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later
this weekend or early next week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-10-27 14:47

WTNT21 KNHC 271443
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.9N 50.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N 53.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 56.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.5N 57.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.2N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 47.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-10-27 08:43

WTNT41 KNHC 270839
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

Oscar's convective pattern has not changed much since the previous
advisory. The surface center is displaced just to the southeast of
a burst of deep convection, and other convective elements extend
along a broken band over the eastern part of the circulation.
Although satellite classifications have not increased, a drifting
buoy (47546) near Oscar's center recently reported a pressure of
998.8 mb, implying a significant drop in the cyclone's central
pressure from the previous estimate. Based on pressure-wind
relationships, this low pressure would equate to maximum winds
around 45 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity for this
advisory.

Oscar is careening around the northern side of a mid- to
upper-level low, and its initial motion is now west-northwestward,
or 300/10 kt. As the circulation becomes more vertically aligned
in the coming days, the cyclone is forecast to be pushed
westward to west-southwestward by the flow on the back side of a
trough that is dropping southward over the eastern Atlantic. After
48 hours, Oscar is expected to recurve sharply and accelerate toward
the north Atlantic ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.
The global models have come into much better agreement on Oscar's
eventual recurvature and acceleration, and confidence in the NHC
track forecast has increased. In fact, the 00Z guidance suite
required a significant increase in Oscar's forecast forward speed
on days 4 and 5, and the new NHC track forecast is much faster than
the previous one at the end of the forecast period, jumping
northward by about 10 degrees of latitude. This new forecast is
close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA model on day 5,
but it's still not as fast as the 00Z GFS and ECMWF guidance.

Gradually decreasing shear and warmer waters ahead of Oscar should
allow for a steady increase in intensity during the next few days,
and the cyclone is also expected to take on a more tropical
convective pattern in about 36 hours. The intensity models are
showing a little more intensification than before, and the new NHC
intensity forecast has been nudged upward, showing Oscar becoming a
hurricane in 3-4 days. Still, this forecast lies near the lower
bound of the intensity guidance, and additional upward adjustments
may be required in future advisories. Now that most of the models
are showing more acceleration of Oscar toward the north Atlantic
later in the forecast period, there is also more definitive
consensus that Oscar will become an extratropical low by day 5, and
that is now indicated in the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 27.3N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 27.1N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 26.2N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 29/0600Z 25.9N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.4N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 35.0N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 45.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-27 08:42

WTNT31 KNHC 270838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 47.0W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 47.0 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
to west-southwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected today and tonight, followed by a reduction in speed on
Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next several days, and Oscar is expected to make a transition
to a tropical storm on Sunday. Oscar could then become a hurricane
by Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches)
based on data from a nearby drifting buoy.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-10-27 08:42

WTNT21 KNHC 270838
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 46.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.1N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.2N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.7N 54.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.9N 56.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 35.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 45.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-10-27 04:02

WTNT82 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2018 0 26.2N 45.8W 1005 34
1200UTC 27.10.2018 12 27.4N 47.8W 1004 40
0000UTC 28.10.2018 24 26.1N 51.6W 1001 38
1200UTC 28.10.2018 36 24.9N 53.3W 997 45
0000UTC 29.10.2018 48 25.2N 56.0W 996 38
1200UTC 29.10.2018 60 26.1N 57.6W 995 45
0000UTC 30.10.2018 72 27.4N 58.4W 990 47
1200UTC 30.10.2018 84 29.4N 57.9W 982 56
0000UTC 31.10.2018 96 32.9N 55.8W 964 73
1200UTC 31.10.2018 108 37.5N 51.8W 958 69
0000UTC 01.11.2018 120 43.3N 47.1W 951 65
1200UTC 01.11.2018 132 48.6N 41.3W 950 56
0000UTC 02.11.2018 144 49.9N 37.1W 950 59

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.5N 165.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2018 72 16.5N 165.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.10.2018 84 19.2N 164.0W 1003 30
0000UTC 31.10.2018 96 23.3N 161.8W 998 42
1200UTC 31.10.2018 108 28.0N 158.7W 991 53
0000UTC 01.11.2018 120 34.5N 153.9W 995 51
1200UTC 01.11.2018 132 42.4N 148.0W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.11.2018 144 50.4N 140.3W 993 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 123.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2018 144 13.8N 123.9W 1007 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270358

2018-10-27 04:02

WTNT80 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2018 26.2N 45.8W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2018 27.4N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2018 26.1N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 24.9N 53.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.2N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 26.1N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 27.4N 58.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 29.4N 57.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 32.9N 55.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 37.5N 51.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 43.3N 47.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 48.6N 41.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2018 49.9N 37.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.5N 165.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.5N 165.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.10.2018 19.2N 164.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2018 23.3N 161.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2018 28.0N 158.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 34.5N 153.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2018 42.4N 148.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2018 50.4N 140.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 123.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2018 13.8N 123.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270358

2018-10-27 03:02

WTNT41 KNHC 270233
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate the circulation
of the broad low pressure area over the central Atlantic has become
better defined, with a low-level center developing to the south of
a convective burst. The scatterometer data indicate 35-40 kt winds
about 70-90 n mi from the center, and satellite imagery shows that
the cyclone is entangled with a developing upper-level low. Based
on these factors, advisories are being initiated on the latest in
this year's series of subtropical storms, Oscar.

Due to the recent development of the center, the initial motion is
an uncertain 335/8. The track guidance is in excellent agreement
that Oscar should should turn sharply westward and west-
southwestward during the next 24 h as it pivots around the north
side of the upper-level low, with this general motion continuing
through about 48 h. After that, the cyclone should turn more
westward at a slower forward speed as it approaches a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A northeastward motion appears likely from
72-120 h due to a mid-latitude trough approaching Oscar from the
west. However, there are significant differences in the forward
speed between the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that make this part
of the forecast low confidence. Overall, the forecast track is
close to the TVCN consensus model, and it splits the difference
between the divergent global models late in the forecast period.

Gradual strengthening is forecast as Oscar remains in the deep-layer
cyclonic flow of the upper-level low during the first 36-48 h.
After that time, the global models suggests the system will have a
chance to develop a tropical cyclone outflow pattern, and based on
this the forecast calls for Oscar to become a tropical cyclone near
the 48 h point. Interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough may allow some additional intensification before Oscar
encounters stronger shear near the 120 h point. The FV3 model shows
a much weaker Oscar than the other dynamical models, and it is
possible that dry air entrainment may hamper development through
the forecast period. Thus, the intensity forecast is below the
intensity consensus and on the weaker side of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 26.7N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-27 03:02

WTNT31 KNHC 270233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 45.7W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the west and west-southwest at a faster forward speed is
expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through Sunday
night.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could become a
tropical storm on Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-27 03:02

WTNT21 KNHC 270232
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 45.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 45.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN