Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALCIDE-18
Off-shore

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2018-11-11 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 111500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111133129
2018111112 03S ALCIDE 023 02 315 03 SATL 025
T000 123S 0519E 035 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 121S 0518E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM

>

2018-11-11 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAD BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE WEAKENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 03S IS NOW EXPOSED TO
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE

>

2018-11-11 14:27

WTXS51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111133129
2018111112 03S ALCIDE 023 02 315 03 SATL 025
T000 123S 0519E 035 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 121S 0518E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 10 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111018 128S 526E 50
0318111018 128S 526E 50
0318111100 126S 524E 45
0318111106 125S 521E 40
0318111112 123S 519E 35
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 14:26

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAD BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE WEAKENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 03S IS NOW EXPOSED TO
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, COOL DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE AND WILL LEAD
TO THE DISSIPATION OF TC ALCIDE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 12:07

WTIO22 FMEE 111207
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ALCIDE) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 52.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 00 UTC:
12.3 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 12 UTC:
11.9 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2018-11-11 08:37

WTXS51 PGTW 110900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111075853
2018111106 03S ALCIDE 022 02 290 03 SATL 020
T000 125S 0521E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 122S 0520E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 119S 0519E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 114S 0517E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS

>

2018-11-11 08:37

WTXS31 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-11 08:29

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111075853
2018111106 03S ALCIDE 022 02 290 03 SATL 020
T000 125S 0521E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 122S 0520E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 119S 0519E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 114S 0517E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 52.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111018 128S 526E 50
0318111018 128S 526E 50
0318111100 126S 524E 45
0318111106 125S 521E 40
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 08:28

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 52.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE RAGGED BUT
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED AS THE
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ERODE MAINLY DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY
SOONER. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 06:12

WTIO22 FMEE 110610
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ALCIDE) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 52.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 18 UTC:
12.2 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 06 UTC:
12.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-11 02:24

WTXS51 PGTW 110300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111012846
2018111100 03S ALCIDE 021 02 325 05 SATL 030
T000 123S 0522E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 120S 0521E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 116S 0519E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 111S 0517E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-11 02:24

WTXS31 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-11 02:05

WTXS51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181111012846
2018111100 03S ALCIDE 021 02 325 05 SATL 030
T000 123S 0522E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 120S 0521E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 116S 0519E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 111S 0517E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.1S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111018 127S 525E 50
0318111018 127S 525E 50
0318111100 123S 522E 45
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 02:04

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.1S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 102303Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING AND LIMITED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
HAMPERED BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS RECENTLY CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS, FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. WITH A
SPREAD OF ABOUT 76 NM BY TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-11 00:39

WTIO22 FMEE 110038
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ALCIDE) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 52.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.3 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 00 UTC:
12.0 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 21:09

WTXS51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110202135
2018111018 03S ALCIDE 020 02 315 03 SATL 030
T000 127S 0525E 050 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 126S 0524E 045 R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 123S 0523E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 118S 0521E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 113S 0519E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

2018-11-10 21:09

WTXS31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-11-10 21:05

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110202135
2018111018 03S ALCIDE 020 02 315 03 SATL 030
T000 127S 0525E 050 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 126S 0524E 045 R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 123S 0523E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 118S 0521E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 113S 0519E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.8S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.3S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111018 127S 525E 50
0318111018 127S 525E 50
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 21:03

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.8S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.3S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 101808Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. BASED ON FINAL T NUMBERS OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45
KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSETTING A VERY LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO UPWELLING FROM THE QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) STORM TRACK. THE RECENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT A
SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO STEER
THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS, FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY
TAU 48. GENERALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE STORM TRACK.
SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS UNDER 100 NM BY TAU 48 BUT THE QS NATURE
OF MOVEMENT LENDS ITSELF TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 20:10

WTIO31 FMEE 102003

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/2/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 80 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/11/2018 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ALCIDE CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER AVEC
UNIQUEMENT DES BOUFFETS CONVECTIVES SE MAINTENANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES VONT DE 30 A 50 KT (VENTS
10-MIN) POUR DES CI ALLANT DE 2.5 A 3.5. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
(SATCON, ADT) LE PLUS RECENTES SONT A 45-50 KT. L'INTENSITE FINALE
RETENUE EST AU SEUIL MINIMAL DE TEMPETE MAIS CELA PARAIT MEME
GENEREUX COMPTE TENU DE LA PERTE DE STRUCTURE AFFICHEE SUR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES RECENTES.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H LE DEPLACEMENT D'ALCIDE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD-NORD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DE
BASSES COUCHES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER
LEGEREMENT.

UNE POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RESTE ENVISAGEE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
ET SANS AUCUNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES DE GRANDE ECHELLE VENANT
ALIMENTER LE SYSTEME.=

>

2018-11-10 20:10

WTIO30 FMEE 102003

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/14 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY SPORADIC BURST OF
CONVECTION ONLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 KT (10-MIN WINDS) WITH CI FROM 2.5 TO 3.5.
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 KT. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KT AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT POOR MW
SIGNATURE.

DURING THE NEXT 24H, ALCIDE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME ON A SLOW
NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PATTERN . FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD.

A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS STILL FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE MID-LEVELS AND NO LARGE SCALE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.=

>

2018-11-10 19:08

WTIO22 FMEE 101907
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 18 UTC:
12.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 14:59

WTXS51 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110134455
2018111012 03S ALCIDE 019 02 315 01 SATL 030
T000 129S 0527E 055 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 127S 0526E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 125S 0525E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 123S 0524E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 120S 0522E 035
T072 106S 0513E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E

>

2018-11-10 14:59

WTXS31 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-10 14:36

WTXS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110134455
2018111012 03S ALCIDE 019 02 315 01 SATL 030
T000 129S 0527E 055 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 127S 0526E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 125S 0525E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 123S 0524E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 120S 0522E 035
T072 106S 0513E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111012 129S 527E 55
0318111012 129S 527E 55
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 14:35

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH COMPACT RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS
SPIRALING INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED
BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES
STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 13:08

WTIO22 FMEE 101308 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 12:51

WTIO31 FMEE 101250

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/2/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AU SEIN D'ALCIDE A REPRIS EN COURS DE MATINEE
ET SE CONCENTRE MAINTENANT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST LOIN DU CENTRE.
LES RARES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SUGGERENT UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION
TEMPORAIRE DE LA STRUCTURE EN 89GHZ VERS 06Z (AMSU 0535Z ET FY3C
0617Z). CEPENDANT AU VU DE LA TENDANCE GENERALE ET DE LA
CONFIGURATION ACTUELLE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SEMBLE TOUJOURS EN COURS.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H LE DEPLACEMENT D'ALCIDE DEVRAIT RESTER
LENT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PRIVILEGIE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX
DETERMINSITES, LA POURSUITE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST MAIS CELA RESTE ENCORE INCERTAIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER LEGEREMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, EN S'ELOIGNANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DES EAUX
REFROIDIS, LE POTENTIEL POURRAIT REDEVENIR SUFFISANT. CEPENDANT,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT SEC ET LE MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE COTE EQUATORIAL
DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION. LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES SEMBLENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO ET PROPOSENT UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2018-11-10 12:51

WTIO30 FMEE 101250

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ALCIDE RESUMED AROUND 06Z BUT IS NOW FAR
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. RARE MICROWAVE DATA
(0535Z AMSU AND 0617Z FY3C) SUGGEST A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF THE
INNER STRUCTURE IN 89GHZ. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAIN TREND AND THE
CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN, WEAKENING IS STILL ONGOING.


DURING THE NEXT 24H, ALCIDE MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT
FORECAST FAVOUR IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, THE CONTINUATION
OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FROM MONDAY,
THE SYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD.

WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COOLED WATERS, OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY
TO BE AGAIN SUFFICIENT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
THE LACK OF EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
REINTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND SUGGEST A SLOW WEAKENING.=

>

2018-11-10 12:25

WTIO22 FMEE 101224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 08:41

WTXS51 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110073323
2018111006 03S ALCIDE 018 02 360 01 SATL 025
T000 130S 0528E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 128S 0528E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 127S 0528E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 125S 0527E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 123S 0526E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 113S 0520E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-10 08:41

WTXS31 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-10 08:31

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110073323
2018111006 03S ALCIDE 018 02 360 01 SATL 025
T000 130S 0528E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 128S 0528E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 127S 0528E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 125S 0527E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 123S 0526E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 113S 0520E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z,
AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
0318111006 130S 528E 60
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 08:28

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS REDUCED AND WEAKER CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
COMPACT RAIN BANDS THAT CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS), RAGGED, AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW BRIGHTNESS LLC
FEATURE IN THE 100535Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE
PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS THEN WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF AN EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z, AND
110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 07:44

WTIO31 FMEE 100640

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/2/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 52.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALCIDE S'EST TRES NETTEMENT DEGRADEE CE
MATIN, AVEC UN RECHAUFFEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ET
L'EFFONDREMENT DE LA CONVECTION DANS UNE GRANDE PARTIE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES TEMOIGNENT DE CETTE EVOLUTION
RAPIDE AVEC LA DISPARITION DE LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL EN 89GHZ ENTRE LES
SSMIS DE 0008Z ET 0252Z. LA PASSE GMI DE 0416Z MONTRE QUE LA
STRUCUTRE DE BASSES COUCHES RESISTE MIEUX. L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE
ABAISSE A 45KT MAIS CELA EST PEUT-ETRE TROP CONSERVATEUR.

CETTE EVOLUTION EST PROBABLEMENT LIEE AU CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE
D'ALCIDE QUI REPASSE ACTUELLEMENT SUR DES EAUX DEJA REFROIDI HIER.
UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SEC POURRAIT EGALEMENT PARTICIPER A CETTE TENDANCE.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H LE DEPLACEMENT D'ALCIDE DEVRAIT RESTER
LENT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PRIVILEGIE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX
DETERMINSITES, LA POURSUITE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE
NORD-NORD-OUEST MAIS CELA RESTE ENCORE INCERTAIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER LEGEREMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, EN S'ELOIGNANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DES EAUX
REFROIDIS, LE POTENTIEL POURRAIT REDEVENIR SUFFISANT. CEPENDANT,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT SEC ET LE MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE COTE EQUATORIAL
DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION. LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES SEMBLENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO ET NE PROPOSENT QU'UN
LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2018-11-10 07:44

WTIO30 FMEE 100640

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ALCIDE CLOUD PATTERN DECAY STRONGLY THIS MORNING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN A VAST
EASTERN PART. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THAT RAPID EVOLUTION WITH THE
DISAPPEARING OF THE EYE IN 89GHZ BY 0008Z AND 0252Z SSMIS. 0416Z GMI
SHOW THE INNER CORE IS STILL RESISTING. INTENSITY WAS DOWNGRADED TO
45KT , BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE.

THIS TREND IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CHANGE OF TRACK WHICH IS MOVING
BACK OVER COOLED WATERS. A WESTERLY MID LEVEL CONSTRAINT WITHIN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT MAY HAVE ALSO TOOK A PART IN THIS EVOLUTION.

DURING THE NEXT 24H, ALCIDE MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT
FORECAST FAVOUR IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, THE CONTINUATION
OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FROM MONDAY,
THE SYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COOLED WATERS, OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY
TO BE AGAIN SUFFICIENT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
THE LACK OF EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
REINTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND SUGGEST A SLOW WEAKENING.=

>

2018-11-10 06:34

WTIO22 FMEE 100633 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 18 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 06:26

WTIO22 FMEE 100625
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 18 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-10 03:33

WTXS51 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110023950
2018111000 03S ALCIDE 017 01 270 01 SATL 030
T000 131S 0528E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 130S 0528E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 129S 0528E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 127S 0527E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 125S 0526E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 117S 0517E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-10 03:19

WTXS31 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-10 03:17

WTXS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181110023950
2018111000 03S ALCIDE 017 01 270 01 SATL 030
T000 131S 0528E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 130S 0528E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 129S 0528E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 127S 0527E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 125S 0526E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 117S 0517E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.7S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318110918 131S 529E 65
0318111000 131S 528E 60
0318111000 131S 528E 60
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 03:15

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.7S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 100008Z SSMIS PASS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SSMIS
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. SLOW MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
GUIDE THE CIRCULATION NORTHWESTWARD. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72 DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, COOLED THROUGH OCEANIC UPWELLING BY THE SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEM, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT
TRACK MOTION WILL BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TC 03S REMAINS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36,
BUT GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIES WITHIN AN ENVELOPE OF PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS
AND NOT FAR FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE NEAR-TERM AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-10 00:48

WTIO31 FMEE 100031

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/2/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 20 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/11/2018 00 UTC: 10.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALCIDE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO)
S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DES 6 HEURES PASSEES. LA CONVECTION RESTE
BIEN PRESENTE AVEC DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE ASSEZ FORTE ET
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST DU METEORE. CEPENDANT CETTE
CONVECTION S'ESSOUFFLE AVEC UNE VENTILATION D'ALTITUDE MOINDRE. LA
DIMINUTION D'INTENSITE D'ALCIDE PERSISTE ET LA DERNIERE ANALYSE
DVORAK LAISSE ALCIDE AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE MAIS PLUS
POUR LONGTEMPS.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE DE ALCIDE CONTINUENT A
ETRE DELICATES ET ETROITEMENT LIEES, MAIS UN CONSENSUS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES SEMBLE SE METTRE EN PLACE. SANS REEL FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET BAIGNANT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ SEC, ALCIDE EST
PREVU FAIRE QUASIMENT DU SUR PLACE AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE SAMEDI.
ALCIDE VA PAR LA SUITE ENTAMER UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSMENT DE SON INTENSITE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
ALCIDE VA ETRE CONTROLER PAR UN FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES. CE FLUX
DIRECTEUR, ENCORE TIMIDE, VA PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN FIN DE WEEK-END.

DANS CES CONDITIONS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST GOUVERNEE PAR L'OCEAN, LE SYSTEME PASSANT SUR DES EAUX
REFROIDIES. LE SYSTEME EST DONC PREVU ACCENTUER SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
AU COURS DES 30H PROCHAINES HEURES. SE RETROUVANT DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SEC, LORS DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT, ALCIDE NE
POURRA PAS PRETENDRE A UNE REINTENSIFICATION ET DEVRAIT DONC
MAINTENIR UN STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE AVANT DE SE COMBLER
LENTEMENT EN SE DEPLACANT AU NORD DE MADAGASCAR.=

>

2018-11-10 00:48

WTIO30 FMEE 100031

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 20 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/14 00 UTC: 10.8 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE ALCIDE'S CLOUD PATTERN WAS MAINTAINED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL PRESENT WITH
FAIRLY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION BOOSTS AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR. HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION WEAKS WITH A UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
IS LOWER. THE ALCIDE'S WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY PERSISTS AND THE
LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS MAINTAINS ALCIDE AT THE THRESHOLD OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM BUT NOT FOR LONG.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTION CONTINUE TO BE DELICATE AND CLOSELY
RELATED, BUT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS SEEMS TO BE
EMERGING. WITHOUT STEERING FLOW AND BEING IN A FAIRLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT, ALCIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SATURDAY.
ALCIDE WILL THEN START A SLOW TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY, IT IS A STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THAT WILL CONTROL THE ALCIDE TRACK. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

UNDER THESE NO-MOVEMENT CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
GOVERNED BY THE OCEAN, THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER COOLED WATER. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT WHEN ITS DISPLACEMENT RESUMES, ALCIDE
WILL NOT BE READY FOR REINTENSIFICATION AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A STAGE
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING UP DURING ITS MOVEMENT
TO NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.=

>

2018-11-10 00:12

WTIO22 FMEE 100010
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-09 20:34

WTXS51 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109194457
2018110918 03S ALCIDE 016 01 160 03 SATL 030
T000 134S 0531E 065 R064 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD
085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 132S 0532E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 129S 0531E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 127S 0526E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 125S 0521E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 119S 0511E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 20:34

WTXS31 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 20:14

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109194457
2018110918 03S ALCIDE 016 01 160 03 SATL 030
T000 134S 0531E 065 R064 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 132S 0532E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 129S 0531E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 127S 0526E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 125S 0521E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 119S 0511E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110912 131S 530E 65
0318110918 134S 531E 65
0318110918 134S 531E 65
0318110918 134S 531E 65
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 20:13

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEPEST
RAIN BANDS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 091725Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (LESS THAN 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
UPWELLING OF COOL WATER DUE TO THE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS. TC 03S IS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND POOR OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING AND THE DIRECTION OF THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE, LENDING HIGH UNCERTAINTY TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 19:05

WTIO31 FMEE 091827

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/2/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALCIDE A
EVOLUE ET EST MAINTENANT UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO). BIEN QUE
LA CONVECTION PRESENTE TOUJOURS DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE
ASSEZ FORTE, L'INTENSITE D'ALCIDE EST EN DECLIN. LA DERNIERE PASSE
ASCAT DE 1725UTC DEFINIT DIFFICILEMENT DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
45/50KTS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO PERMET D'OBTENIR UN CI DE 4.0
LAISSANT SUPPOSER DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 55KTS, EN ACCORD
AVEC LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE DE 1542UTC MONTRANT UNE BELLE RESISTANCE
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE DE ALCIDE CONTINUENT A
ETRE DELICATES ET ETROITEMENT LIEES, CERTAINS MODELES AYANT BEAUCOUP
DE MAL A BIEN ANALYSER LE SYSTEME. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ENCORE FAIBLE, ALCIDE EST PREVU FAIRE
QUASIMENT DU SUR PLACE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES ET JOURNEE DE
SAMEDI. ALCIDE VA PAR LA SUITE ENTAMER UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSMENT DE L'INTENSITE, C'EST UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR DANS LES BASSES COUCHES QUI VA CONTROLER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
ALCIDE. CE FLUX DIRECTEUR, ENCORE TIMIDE, VA PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE
ACCELERATION EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN FIN DE WEEK-END.

DANS CES CONDITIONS DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST GOUVERNEE PAR L'OCEAN, LE SYSTEME PASSANT SUR DES EAUX
REFROIDIES. LE SYSTEME EST DONC PREVU ACCENTUER SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
AU COURS DES 36H PROCHAINES HEURES. LORS DE LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT, ALCIDE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UN STADE DE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE AVANT DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT AU NORD DE MADAGASCAR.=

>

2018-11-09 19:05

WTIO30 FMEE 091827

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ALCIDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED AND IS
NOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). ALTHOUGH CONVECTION STILL HAS
QUITE STRONG DEEP CONVECTION BOOSTS, ALCIDE'S INTENSITY IS
DECREASING. THE 1725UTC ASCAT SWATHS DEFINES WINDS OF THE ORDER OF
45/50KTS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO ALLOWS TO OBTAIN 4.0, SUGGESTING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 55KTS, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 1542UTC
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A GOOD RESISTANCE OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTION CONTINUE TO BE DELICATE AND CLOSELY
RELATED, SOME MODELS HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY IN PROPERLY ANALYZING
THE SYSTEM. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALCIDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SATURDAY.
ALCIDE WILL THEN START A SLOW TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY, IT IS A STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THAT WILL CONTROL THE ALCIDE TRACK. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

UNDER THESE NO-MOVEMENT CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
GOVERNED BY THE OCEAN, THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER COOLED WATER. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WHEN ITS DISPLACEMENT RESUMES, ALCIDE SHOULD MAINTAIN A STAGE
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING UP NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.=

>

2018-11-09 18:14

WTIO22 FMEE 091811
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 53.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 06 UTC:
13.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 18 UTC:
13.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-09 14:43

WTXS51 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109134710
2018110912 03S ALCIDE 015 01 180 01 SATL 040
T000 131S 0530E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD
095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 132S 0532E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 129S 0533E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 126S 0530E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 125S 0523E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 120S 0514E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 111S 0501E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 14:43

WTXS31 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 14:38

WTXS51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109134710
2018110912 03S ALCIDE 015 01 180 01 SATL 040
T000 131S 0530E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 132S 0532E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 129S 0533E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 126S 0530E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 125S 0523E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 120S 0514E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 111S 0501E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.9S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.6S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110912 131S 530E 70
0318110912 131S 530E 70
0318110912 131S 530E 70
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 14:36

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.9S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.6S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 03S HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
BUT MAINTAINED ITS SPIRAL BANDING, AND CONVECTION IS NEWLY FLARING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND THE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
BETWEEN THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 KTS) AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS), WHILE A 080554Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 62 KTS. TC 03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CAUSING UPWELLING OF LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) WATER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS A SMALL AREA OF SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS, FURTHER
DEPRIVING THE SYSTEM OF ENERGY. TC 03S IS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST HAS WEAKENED AND IS
RE-ORIENTING, LEAVING TC 03S IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW
OHC) AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN LATER TAUS, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND
THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR.
THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ALSO
DRIVE TC 03S TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SUBJECT TO LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A
POSSIBLE LOOP, THEN THE EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT REMAINS
IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 13:29

WTIO31 FMEE 091314

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 52.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/11/2018 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 14/11/2018 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALCIDE A GLOBALEMENT CONTINUE DE SE
DETERIORER AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC DES SOMMETS SE
RECHAUFFANT ET DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI DEVIENNENT
MOINS DURABLES AUTOUR DU CENTRE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE
1022Z MONTRE UN COEUR DONT L'ORGANISATON BIEN QU'EN DECLIN, RESTE
BIEN CONSTITUEE. L'ENSEMBLE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SONT ENTRE 4.0 ET
4.5 (ENTRE 57 ET 69 KT 10 MIN). LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (SATCON,
ADT) SONT PLUS FAIBLES A 50/55 KT. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 60 KT EN
COMPROMIS DE L'ENSEMBLE DES ESTIMATIONS.

MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ENCORE FAIBLE, LES ANALYSES
DE MODELES SUGGERRENT QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS SEMBLE LIER A
UNE POSSIBLE COMBINAISON ENTRE INFLUENCE DE L'AIR SEC A 400 HPA ET
UNE RETROACTION NEGATIVE DE L'OCEAN.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE SPLITEE ENTRE LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE
ICNW QUI PREVOIT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ LENT SUR LES PROCHAINES
30/36H ET DES MODELES TRES AGRESSIFS DANS L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT COMME IFS
ET AROME INDIEN. COMPTE TENU QUE LE SYSTEME EST PREVU PEU SE DEPLACER
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, LA CONSOMMATION DU FAIBLE POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT DANS TOUS LES CAS ABOUTIR A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE DU SYSTEME.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME A RALENTIT DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR
NET. CET APRES-MIDI, UNE LENTE DERIVE SUD-SUD-OUEST S'EST MISE EN
PLACE MAIS NE DEVRAIT PAS PERDURER. AVEC LA BAISSE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT D'ICI 24/36H ETRE REPRIS
VERS LE NORD-OUEST. SI LES SCENARIOS DES MODELES CONVERGENT A TERME
VERS CETTE SOLUTION, UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DES
PROCHAINES 24/36H ET UN CALAGE ETONNAMMENT MAUVAIS DE CERTAINS
MODELES FIABLES (IFS/ UK) CONFERENT A CETTE PREVISION UN FAIBLE DEGRE
DE CONFIANCE A COURTE ECHEANCE.=

>

2018-11-09 13:29

WTIO30 FMEE 091314

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 52.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/13 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/14 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALCIDE HAS GLOBALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS WIH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LESS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. MW IMAGERY FROM AMSR2 AT 1022Z SHOW A
STILL A WELL DEFINED INNER-CORE. AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 4.0 TO 4.5 (OR 57-69 KT 10-MIN WINDS). OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
(SATCON, ADT) ARE WEAKER AT 50/55 KT. THE CURRENT 60 KT ESTIMATES IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THIS ESTIMATES.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW, THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND MAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 400 HPA DRY AIR INTRUSION
INTO THE INNER CORE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE OCEAN OVER LIMITED
TCHP CONTAIN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
ICNW THAT SHOW A RATHER SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 30-36H AND
SOME VERY AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE WEAKENING TREND AS IFS AND
AROME-INDIEN NOTABLY. WITH A SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, OCEAN RETRO ACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN UNFAVORABLE FACTOR, SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN IN AN AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STEERING FLOW.THIS AFTERNOON, A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DRIFT HAS
OCCURED BUT THIS SHOULD STOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE LOWERING OF THE
STEERING LEVEL INTO THE LOW LEVEL, A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK
AROUND LEAD TIME 24 OR 36H. IF ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONVERGE
TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS AN UNUSUAL SPREAD AT THE SHORT RANGE
DUE TO THE POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE TC INITIAL POSITION BYE SOME
USUALLY RELIABLE MODELS (IFS, UK). THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN USUAL AT SHORT RANGE.=

>

2018-11-09 12:29

WTIO22 FMEE 091229
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 52.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 TO 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 00 UTC:
13.2 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 12 UTC:
13.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-09 08:44

WTXS51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109075009
2018110906 03S ALCIDE 014 01 180 03 SATL 020
T000 130S 0530E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 132S 0531E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0534E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0534E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 127S 0529E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 123S 0524E 040 R034 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 113S 0513E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-11-09 08:44

WTXS31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 08:40

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109075009
2018110906 03S ALCIDE 014 01 180 03 SATL 020
T000 130S 0530E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 132S 0531E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0534E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0534E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 127S 0529E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 123S 0524E 040 R034 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 113S 0513E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
0318110906 130S 530E 80
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 08:39

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CONVECTION PARTIALLY COVERING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 090306Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 090306Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, ITS DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WEAKENING, AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL, LEADING TO DETERIORATING AND
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. TC 03S IS CAUSING UPWELLING OF
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS A SMALL AREA OF SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS,
FURTHER DEPRIVING THE SYSTEM OF ENERGY. TC 03S HAS CURVED TO THE
SOUTH, TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHICH IS WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTING,
LEAVING TC 03S IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STR
REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED.
DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW OHC) AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY STR TO
THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ALSO DRIVE TC 03S TO THE
NORTHWEST AT LATER TAUS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES SUBJECT TO
LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON
AN INITIAL SLOWING AND POSSIBLE LOOP, THEN THE EVENTUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST, BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER THAT DOES NOT PREDICT A
LOOP, AND INSTEAD DEPICTS A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK AT LATER TAUS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 07:18

WTIO31 FMEE 090708

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 53.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 14/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE
DE SE DEGRADER AVEC NOTAMMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE RECHAUFFANT. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT UNE DETERIORATION DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME ET SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE, UN CENTRE, ASSEZ LARGE, EST DEVENU
VISIBLE SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE SE BASE SUR DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK CONVERGENTES A 4.5
MAIS LE SATCON DE 0306Z SUGGERE QUE L'INTENSITE POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU
PLUS BASSE.

MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ENCORE FAIBLE, LES ANALYSES
DE MODELES SUGGERRENT QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS SEMBLE LIER A
L'IMPACT DE L'AIR SEC A 400 HPA QUI POURRAIR AVOIR PENETRER LE COEUR
DU SYSTEME PAR L'OUEST ET UNE RETROACTION NEGATIVE DE L'OCEAN.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST SPLITEE ENTRE LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE
ICNW QUI PREVOIT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT SUR LES PROCHAINES 48H ET
DES MODELES TRES AGRESSIFS DANS L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT COMME IFS ET AROME
INDIEN. LA TENDANCE ACTUELLE INCITE A FAVORISER LA SECONDE OPTION.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME A RALENTIT DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR.
PAR LA SUITE, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE REMONTER VERS LE NORD-OUEST,
POUSSEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR SITUE EN BASSE TROPO.=

>

2018-11-09 07:18

WTIO30 FMEE 090708

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/14 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 06 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
WITH NOTABLY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. LATEST MW IMAGERY SHOW A
WEAKENING OF THE EYE PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND LATEST
VIS IMAGERY REVEALS A SOMEWHAT LARGE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 4.5 BUT
LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE OF 0306Z SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE
LOWER THAN THAT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW, THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND MAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 400 HPA DRY AIR INTRUSION
INTO THE INNER CORE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE OCEAN OVER LIMITED
TCHP CONTAIN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICNW
THAT SHOW A RATHER LOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 48H AND SOME
VERY AGRESSIVE MODEL IN THE WEAKENING TREND AS IFS AND AROME-INDIEN
NOTABLY. THE ONGOING TREND FAVOR THE SECOND OPTION.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN IN AN AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STEERING FLOW. THEREAFTER, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UPWARDS TO
THE NORTH-WEST, PUSHED BY A LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.=

>

2018-11-09 06:34

WTIO22 FMEE 090630
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 TO 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 18 UTC:
12.8 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-09 03:02

WTXS51 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109021000
2018110900 03S ALCIDE 013 01 215 05 SATL 025
T000 127S 0530E 090 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD
085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 130S 0529E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0532E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 131S 0534E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 128S 0533E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 120S 0526E 040 R034 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 109S 0514E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

>

2018-11-09 03:02

WTXS31 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-09 02:55

WTXS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181109021000
2018110900 03S ALCIDE 013 01 215 05 SATL 025
T000 127S 0530E 090 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 130S 0529E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0532E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 131S 0534E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 128S 0533E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 120S 0526E 040 R034 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 109S 0514E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.8S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.0S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.9S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
0318110900 127S 530E 90
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 02:54

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.8S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.0S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.9S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION
COVERING UP THE LLCC, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 090021Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26
CELSIUS) AND OHC REMAINS VERY UNFAVORABLE. TC 03S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU
12, CAUSING TC 03S TO SLOW DOWN AND ENTER A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE.
AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW
OHC) AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST
WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC
03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THIS STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE
ON THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING
SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-09 00:34

WTIO31 FMEE 090033

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 52.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 40
64 KT NE: SE: 40 SO: 40 NO:

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 14/11/2018 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0 CI=4.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SE DA GRADE LENTEMENT TRADUISANT
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR-D'EAU TRADUIT UNE
BAISSE DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC DES EPANCHEMENTS DE CI DE
MOINS EN MOINS IMPORTANTS. ENFIN, L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT DANS LEQUEL
EVOLUE ALCIDE VA CONTINUER A REDUIRE LA TAILLE DU SYSTEME.

ALCIDE CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD.
AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX
DIRECTEUR REALISANT ALORS UNE BOUCLE. PAR LA SUITE, LA TRAJECTOIRE
EST PREVUE REMONTER VERS LE NORD-OUEST, POUSSEE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
SITUE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX ALORS QU'ALCIDE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR.

AUJOURD'HUI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT SE DA GRADER. LE
CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR AVEC LE DA CALAGE DU
JET SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST. DE PLUS, LE DA CALAGE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE PEU MARQUA AU DESSUS D'ALCIDE PUIS L'ARRIVA E D'UNE
SORTIE GAUCHE DE JET PAR L'OUEST DEVRAIT ENCORE DIMINUER LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CETTE CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT A GALEMENT
ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT SUR LE SYSTEME. DANS LE MA
ME TEMPS, LE RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME VA CONTRIBUER A DIMINUER
NOTABLEMENT LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN. LES MODELES SONT EN
ACCORD POUR ENVISAGER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DU SYSTEME A
PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, APRES SA BOUCLE,
ALCIDE EST PRA VU DE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN POURSUIVANT SA DERIVE
VERS LE NORD-OUEST.=

>

2018-11-09 00:34

WTIO30 FMEE 090033

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 52.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 40
64 KT NE: SE: 40 SW: 40 NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/14 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5+

CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SLOWLY. VAPOUR WATER IMAGERIES SHOW
THE A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
LESS AND LESS EXTENSIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR WHERE ALCIDE EVOLVES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

ALCIDE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT STEERING BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN AN AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW AND THEN MAKE A LOOP. THEREAFTER,
THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UPWARDS TO THE NORTH-WEST, PUSHED BY A
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHEREAS ALCIDE SHOULD WEAKEN.

TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SHIFT EASTWARD. MOREOVER, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ABOVE
THE SYSTEM. THEN THE ARRIVAL FROM WEST OF AN EQUATORWARD EXIT OF AN
ANOTHER JET SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
FURTHERMORE, THIS PATTERN SHOULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IN
THE SAME TIME, THE LOW SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT CONTRIBUTES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE OCEAN. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FROM TODAY.
NEXT WEEK, ALCIDE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL UP PROGRESSIVELY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.=

>

2018-11-09 00:08

WTIO22 FMEE 090007
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 52.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 12 UTC:
12.9 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/10 AT 00 UTC:
12.9 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-08 21:09

WTXS51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108201424
2018110818 03S ALCIDE 012 01 225 06 SATL 025
T000 123S 0533E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD
090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 127S 0532E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 130S 0532E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0535E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 127S 0535E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 121S 0530E 040 R034 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 114S 0524E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

>

2018-11-08 21:09

WTXS31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-08 21:05

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108201424
2018110818 03S ALCIDE 012 01 225 06 SATL 025
T000 123S 0533E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 127S 0532E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 130S 0532E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0535E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 127S 0535E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 121S 0530E 040 R034 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 114S 0524E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110812 119S 537E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
0318110818 123S 533E 95
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 21:04

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED BUT
THICK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 081746Z METOP-A
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
ALONG WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (27
CELSIUS) AND OHC REMAINS VERY UNFAVORABLE. TC 03S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY
TAU 24, CAUSING TC 03S TO SLOW DOWN AND ENTER A QUASI-STATIONARY
STATE. AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL
WATER (DUE TO LOW OHC) AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN LATER TAUS,
A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH
AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THIS
STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER
WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT REMINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO.
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 18:11

WTIO22 FMEE 081810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 06 UTC:
12.6 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 18 UTC:
12.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-08 14:36

WTXS51 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108133212
2018110812 03S ALCIDE 011 01 225 06 SATL 015
T000 120S 0537E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 125S 0533E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 130S 0534E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 131S 0536E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 130S 0537E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD
080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 123S 0534E 040 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 117S 0527E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

>

2018-11-08 14:36

WTXS31 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-08 14:13

WTXS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108133212
2018110812 03S ALCIDE 011 01 225 06 SATL 015
T000 120S 0537E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 125S 0533E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 130S 0534E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 131S 0536E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 130S 0537E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 123S 0534E 040 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 117S 0527E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110812 120S 537E 95
0318110812 120S 537E 95
0318110812 120S 537E 95
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 14:12

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED, DISORGANIZED EYE THAT IS FILLING WITH
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW, OF T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115
KTS), AND AGREES WITH A 081014Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KTS. TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH A FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT WAS ENHANCING OUTFLOW HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST,
DISRUPTING THE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD TO TC 03S AND
LEADING TO SLACKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW, NEAR SINGLE DIGITS. TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU 24,
LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
MOST MODELS CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A SLOW MEANDERING LOOP BETWEEN TAU
24 AND TAU 72. ECMWF DISSENTS, PREDICTING THAT 03S WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH ECMWF DOES DEPICT A SLOWDOWN
IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AS WELL. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY
STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM, AND TC 03S WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWS
DOWN AND CAUSES UPWELLING OF COOLER, LOW OHC WATER BELOW THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH,
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOP SCENARIO
BETWEEN TAU 24-72, ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 081225

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.0 S / 53.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 20 NO: 20
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 13/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=5.0

LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL A BIEN SOUFFERT D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR
EST CONTRIBUANT A DECLASSER ALCIDE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 0940UTC MONTRENT TOUTEFOIS UNE STRUCTURE EN
BASSES COUCHES QUI RESISTENT BIEN AVEC DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT FORT
TOUJOURS TRES REDUITES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE PLUS PRESENTE
DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST.

ALCIDE CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST A LA MEME
ALLURE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SITUEE AU SUD. UNE LEGERE ORIENTATION SUD-OUEST SEMBLE SE METTRE EN
PLACE TOUT RECEMMENT. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE ALCIDE EST
DELICATE CAR TRES DEPENDANTE DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME ET CONTROLEE
PAR DES CENTRES DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS ASSEZ FLUCTUANTS AVEC
L'ALTITUDE. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE CERTAINS MODELES COMME
CELLE DU CEPMMT PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LENTE EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST. CETTE OPTIQUE N'EST PAS SUIVIE, ET LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE
LA DORSALE DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME NE RALENTISSE DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR
REALISANT ALORS UNE BOUCLE AU COURS DE SA TRAJECTOIRE. PAR LA SUITE,
LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE REMONTER VERS LE NORD-OUEST, POUSSES PAR UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR SITUE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX ALORS QU'ALCIDE DEVRAIT
ETRE BIEN AFFAIBLI.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST INITIE CE MATIN PERTURBE ALCIDE
ET CONTINUERA D'ALTERER SA STRUCTURE. LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT CONTRIBUE A DIMINUER NOTABLEMENT LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
DE L'OCEAN PARTICIPANT AINSI A UNE RETROACTION NEGATIVE SUR
L'INTENSITE D'ALCIDE D'AUTANT PLUS MARQUE AU COURS DE LA BOUCLE. A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT NEUTRE ET UNE ATMOSPHERE
PLUTOT SECHE, ALCIDE CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR EN DERIVANT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST.=

>

2018-11-08 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 081225

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 53.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 20 NW: 20
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/09 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/13 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS SUFFERED FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR,
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE ALCIDE'S DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
GRADE. HOWEVER, THE 0940UTC MW IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE THAT
RESISTS WELL WITH WIND EXTENSIONS THAT ARE ALWAYS VERY LIMITED.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE PREVALENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR.

ALCIDE CONTINUES ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT AT THE SAME SPEED BY A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE PREDICTION OF THE ALCIDE'S
TRACK IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM AND IS CONTROLLED BY HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL THAT FLUCTUATE WITH
ALTITUDE. THE TRACK PREDICTION OF SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THAT
OF THE ECMWF PROPOSES A SLOWER TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS APPROACH
IS NOT FOLLOWED, AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, BEFORE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN IN AN AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW AND THEN MAKES A LOOP DURING ITS
TRACK. THEREAFTER, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UPWARDS TO THE
NORTH-WEST, PUSHED BY A LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHEREAS ALCIDE SHOULD BE WELL
WEAKENED.

THE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INITIATED THIS MORNING DISRUPTS
ALCIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALTER ITS STRUCTURE. THE LOW SPEED OF
DISPLACEMENT CONTRIBUTES TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE ENERGY
POTENTIAL OF THE OCEAN, THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ON
THE ALCIDE INTENSITY, WHICH IS ALL THE MORE MARKED DURING THE LOOPING
TRACK. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND A RATHER DRY
ATMOSPHERE, ALKIDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARD.=

>

2018-11-08 12:06

WTIO22 FMEE 081203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 53.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 10 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 00 UTC:
12.3 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-08 09:08

WTXS51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108082423
2018110806 03S ALCIDE 010 01 230 06 SATL 020
T000 116S 0541E 100 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 122S 0535E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 127S 0532E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 130S 0538E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 126S 0536E 045 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 120S 0528E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 109S 0517E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

>

2018-11-08 09:08

WTXS31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-08 09:02

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108082423
2018110806 03S ALCIDE 010 01 230 06 SATL 020
T000 116S 0541E 100 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 122S 0535E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 127S 0532E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 130S 0538E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 126S 0536E 045 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 120S 0528E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 109S 0517E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
0318110806 116S 541E 100
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 09:00

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 18NM
WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
KNES AND FMEE, IN AGREEMENT WITH A 080319Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103
KTS, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW CI ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS). TC
03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DRAWN INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN
ENABLING STRONG PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TC 03S
IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT
BY TAU 24, LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS, MOST MODELS CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A SLOW MEANDERING LOOP
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72. ECMWF DISSENTS, PREDICTING THAT 03S WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH ECMWF DOES DEPICT A
SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AS WELL. IN LATER TAUS, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, AND TC 03S WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. TC 03S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT SLOWS DOWN AND CAUSES UPWELLING OF COOLER, LOW OHC WATER BELOW
THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
ENHANCING OUTFLOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH,
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AT TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO PORTRAY THE LOOP SCENARIO FAVORED
BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT IN THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 07:38

WTIO31 FMEE 080657

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 54.1 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 20 NO: 20
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL PRESENTE UN
LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR EST CONFIRMEE PAR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
91GHZ DE 0318UTC. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET DE PASSER ALCIDE EN CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE MAIS LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT FORT RESTENT TRES
REDUITES, CARACTERISANT UN SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE, AYANT DU MAL A
GENERER UNE HOULE REMARQUABLE. DU FAIT DE LA PETITESSE DU SYSTEME, LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 0513UTC A DU MAL A DEFINIR DES VENTS SUPERIEURS A
60KTS.

ALCIDE CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD. LE DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME NE RALENTISSE DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX
DIRECTEUR REALISANT ALORS UNE BOUCLE AU COURS DE SA TRAJECTOIRE. LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CEPMMT PROPOSE UNE FORTE DISPERSION MAIS UNE
NETTE MAJORITE PROPOSE LA REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, POUSSES PAR UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR SITUE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX ALORS QU'ALCIDE DEVRAIT
ETRE BIEN AFFAIBLI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUJOURS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT
AU NORD DE 15S. UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET
LENTEMENT EN PLACE EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE ET DEVRAIT ALTERER
LA STRUCTURE D'ALCIDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT CONTRIBUE A DIMINUER NOTABLEMENT LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
DE L'OCEAN PARTICIPANT AINSI A UNE RETROACTION NEGATIVE SUR
L'INTENSITE D'ALCIDE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
NEUTRE ET UNE ATMOSPHERE PLUTOT SECHE, ALCIDE CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR
LENTEMENT EN DERIVANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST.=

>

2018-11-08 07:38

WTIO30 FMEE 080657

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 54.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 20 NW: 20
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/08 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/09 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE EAST SECTOR CONFIRMED BY THE 0318UTC 91GHZ MW IMAGE. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO PASS ALCIDE LIKE AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
EXTENSIONS OF STRONG WIND REMAIN VERY LIMITED, CHARACTERIZING A SMALL
SIZE TROPICAL SYSTEM, HAVING DIFFICULTY TO GENERATE A REMARKABLE
SWELL. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE 0513UTC ASCAT SWATH
HAD DIFFICULTY DEFINING WINDS ABOVE 60KTS.

ALCIDE CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE
SHOULD DRIVE A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING IN AN AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW ANYMORE, THEN
MAKING A LOOP DURING ITS TRACK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
PROPOSES A STRONG DISPERSION BUT A CLEAR MAJORITY ARE HEADING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS ALCIDE SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL NORTH OF 15S. A
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND IS EXPECTED TO ALTER THE ALCIDE'S
STRUCTURE THIS FRIDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTRIBUTES IN THE INDUCED
UNDERLYING WATER COOLING PARTICIPATING IN A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ON THE
ALCIDE'S INTENSITY. FROM SUNDAY, IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND A
RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE, ALCIDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARD.=

>

2018-11-08 06:44

WTIO22 FMEE 080643 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 54.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 10 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 18 UTC:
11.9 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-08 06:17

WTIO22 FMEE 080616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 54.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 10 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 18 UTC:
11.9 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 0 , TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 0 , TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-08 03:33

WTXS51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108015800
2018110800 03S ALCIDE 009 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 112S 0546E 100 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD
070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 117S 0539E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 121S 0536E 095 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 124S 0536E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 127S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 124S 0533E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 118S 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 110S 0519E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 54.6E

>

2018-11-08 03:33

WTXS31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-08 02:57

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181108015800
2018110800 03S ALCIDE 009 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 112S 0546E 100 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 117S 0539E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 121S 0536E 095 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 124S 0536E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 127S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 124S 0533E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 118S 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 110S 0519E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.7S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.0S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
0318110800 112S 546E 100
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 02:56

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.7S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.0S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE 12NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
080000Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND HEDGED BETWEEN A 072140Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS AND A FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU 24. TC 03S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE STR AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE STR
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TC 03S WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. BY TAU 96, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BUILD AND ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-08 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 080024

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3 S / 54.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL N'A CESSE DE
S'AMELIORER. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89GHZ AMSR2 DE 2124Z MONTRE TOUJOURS
UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION SOLIDE, AVEC CEPENDANT UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. LES ANALYSES MODELES PROPOSENT EN EFFET
UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST, QUI NE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT PAS
EMPECHER ALCIDE DE S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE LEGEREMENT AUJOURD'HUI, SUR
DES EAUX TOUJOURS ASSEZ CHAUDES.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD. AUJOURD'HUI, LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE
PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-OUEST, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME NE RALENTISSE DANS
UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE DU CEP PROPOSE UNE FORTE DISPERSION. QUELQUES MEMBRES
DESCENDENT LE LONG DES COTES MALGACHES MAIS UNE NETTE MAJORITE
REMONTENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST, POUSSES PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR SITUE
DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX ALORS QU'ALCIDE DEVRAIT ETRE BIEN AFFAIBLI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUJOURS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT
AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT APPARAITRE EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE ET
ALTERER LA STRUCTURE D'ALCIDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. MA ME SI CETTE
CONTRAINTE EST PREVUE RESTER MODEREE, SES EFFETS SUR CE SYSTEME DE
TAILLE MODESTE POURRAIENT A TRE SIGNIFICATIFS. LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT INDUIT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES
DEVRAIENT EGALEMENT PARTICIPER A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF. A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT NEUTRE ET UNE ATMOSPHERE
PLUTOT SECHE, ALCIDE CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT EN DERIVANT
VERS LE NORD-OUEST.=

>

2018-11-08 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 080024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 54.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/08 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/09 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALCIDE'S EYE PATTERN STEADILY IMPROVED. AMSR2
2124Z 89GHZ MW IMAGE STILL SHOWS A ROBUST CONVECTION RING, BUT A
LITTLE WEAKNESS APPEARS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE MODELS
ANALYSIS ARE INDEED SUGGESTING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BUT THIS
WEAK CONSTRAINT SHOULD NOT PREVENT ALCIDE FROM SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING
FURTHER TODAY, OVER WARM WATERS.

ALCIDE IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. TODAY, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THIS RIDGE SHOULD DRIVE A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW
ANYMORE. FROM SATURDAY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SHOWS AN
INCREASED SPREAD. A FEW MEMBERS DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MADAGASCAN
COASTLINE BUT A CLEAR MAJORITY ARE HEADING BACK NORTHWESTWARD,
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS ALCIDE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD, AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM TONIGHT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID-LEVELS AND ALTER ALCIDE'S STRUCTURE FRIDAY.
EVEN IF THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE, THE EFFECTS
ON THIS SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE WEAKENING DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE INDUCED UNDERLYING WATER COOLING SHOULD
PARTICIPATE IN A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STORM. FROM SUNDAY,
WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND DRIER CONDITIONS, ALCIDE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.=

>

2018-11-08 00:10

WTIO22 FMEE 080006
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 54.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 12 UTC:
11.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/09 AT 00 UTC:
12.2 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 21:19

WTXS51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107201007
2018110718 03S ALCIDE 008 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 108S 0553E 085 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD
065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 114S 0542E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 119S 0536E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 123S 0535E 090 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 126S 0535E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 127S 0532E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 121S 0526E 040 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 110S 0514E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

>

2018-11-07 21:19

WTXS31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-07 21:06

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107201007
2018110718 03S ALCIDE 008 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 108S 0553E 085 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 114S 0542E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 119S 0536E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 123S 0535E 090 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 126S 0535E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 127S 0532E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 121S 0526E 040 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 110S 0514E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.9S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 55.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
0318110718 108S 553E 85
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 21:05

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.9S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 55.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS AND A BETTER DEFINED 10 NM RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE OBSERVED IN A 071731Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EYE IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY NORTH OT THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS JUST BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY RECENT ADT AND
SATCON ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND 88 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE AS IT ENTERS A COL REGION BETWEEN
THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THAT WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AIDED
BY DECREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASED VWS. BY TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL CEASE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. THIS
STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER
WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS.
BY TAU 120, TC ALCIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREES ON AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING AND
NORTHWESTWARD TURN BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN, LENDING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 18:40

WTIO31 FMEE 071820

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 55.4 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SO: 210 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL D'ALCIDE EST RESTE DECHIQUETE
SUR LES ANIMATIONS SATELLITE IR. CE N'EST QUE SUR LES TOUTES
DERNIERES IMAGES QU'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EST APPARU. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE DVORAK EST CONSERVATRICE, EN NE PRENANT PAS ENCORE EN
COMPTE CETTE AMELIORATION DE DERNIERE MINUTE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
91GHZ SSMIS DE 1430Z MONTRAIT DEJA UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION SOLIDE ET
ASSEZ LARGE. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE IMPRESSIONNANTE.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD. DEMAIN, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER A S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD AVANT DE
RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE, ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE PRECITEE DISPARAIT. DANS CES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES FLOUES,
ALCIDE DEVRAIT PEU SE DEPLACER. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE MONTRE QU'UNE
DESCENTE AU SUD DE 15S EST TRES IMPROBABLE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES AUGMENTE ALORS QU'ALCIDE, AFFAIBLI, POURRAIT
ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, NOTAMMENT COTE POLAIRE, ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR,
UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT APPARAITRE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET ALTERER LA STRUCTURE D'ALCIDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
MA ME SI CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT RESTER MODEREE, SES EFFETS SUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE POURRAIENT A TRE SIGNIFICATIFS. LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT INDUIT DES EAUX SOUS
JACENTES SONT EGALEMENT PRIS EN COMPTE A TRAVERS LES PREVISIONS DU
MODELE EUROPEEN, DONT LE COUPLAGE OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE DEVRAIT BIEN
ANTICIPER CES EFFETS. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT NEUTRE ET PLUTOT SEC, ALCIDE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR
LENTEMENT EN DERIVANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST.=

>

2018-11-07 18:40

WTIO30 FMEE 071820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 55.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/08 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/08 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/09 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALCIDE'S EYE REMAINED VERY RAGGED ON THE IR
SAT ANIMATIONS. ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES, A WELL-DEFINED EYE APPEARED.
THE CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE DOES NOT YET TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THIS LAST MINUTE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE 1430Z SSMIS MW
IMAGE WAS ALREADY SHOWING A SOLID AND WIDE CONVECTION RING. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE REMAIN IMPRESSIVE.

ALCIDE IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FROM TOMORROW, THE TRACK WILL
BEGIN TO BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
COLLAPSES. WITHIN A RATHER NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, ALCIDE
SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH. ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
NOT LIKELY TO CROSS 15S. AT LONG RANGE, THE MODEL DISPERSION
INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD, AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM THURSDAY EVENING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN THE MID-LEVELS AND ALTER ALCIDE'S STRUCTURE FRIDAY.
EVEN WITH A MODERATE CONSTRAINT EXPECTED, THE EFFECTS ON THIS SMALL
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE WEAKENING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND THE INDUCED UNDERLYING WATER COOLING SHOULD IS ALSO TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT, MAINLY THROUGH THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH RUNS AN
OCEAN/ATMOSPHERIC COUPLING THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCURATELY
ANTICIPATE THESE EFFECTS. FROM MONDAY, WITHIN A RATHER DRY AND
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, ALCIDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.=

>

2018-11-07 18:12

WTIO22 FMEE 071808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 55.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 06 UTC:
11.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 18 UTC:
12.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 14:18

WTXS51 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107130018
2018110712 03S ALCIDE 007 01 255 09 SATL 010
T000 104S 0560E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD
065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 110S 0548E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 117S 0540E 095 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 121S 0537E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 124S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 125S 0533E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD
040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 122S 0528E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 118S 0525E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2018-11-07 14:18

WTXS31 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-07 14:12

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.8S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND MAINTAINED
A SMALLER 15-NM RAGGED EYE. COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071144Z SSMIS PASS THAT
STACKED UP VERTICALLY TO THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 03S
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE AS IT ENTERS A
COL BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT
WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, VWS WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 30 KNOTS AND SSTS WILL COOL DOWN TO 26 CELSIUS AND CAUSE
GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU 120,
TC ALCIDE WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN WIDE DISARRAY WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT ALL LEADING TO AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWEST TRACK, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 14:07

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107130018
2018110712 03S ALCIDE 007 01 255 09 SATL 010
T000 104S 0560E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 110S 0548E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 117S 0540E 095 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 121S 0537E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 124S 0536E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 125S 0533E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 122S 0528E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 118S 0525E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.8S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
0318110712 104S 560E 75
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 13:32

WTIO31 FMEE 071331 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

ALCIDE A CONNU SA MEILLEURE CONFIGURATION LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR
AGALEGA AVEC UN OEIL BIEN FORME EN IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE. LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A RELEVE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE
993 HPA LORS DU PASSAGE DU METEORE SUR L'A LE A 07Z. DEPUIS 10Z, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SE DEGRADE AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETA QUI
S'OBSCURCIT. MAIS L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1144Z MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN 85GHZ CE QUI LAISSE A
PENSER QUE LA DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE OBSERVEE
N'EST QUE TEMPORAIRE.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN.
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD
AVANT DE RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE AFFAIBLI POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET
SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET IMPACTER LA STRUCTURE DE ALCIDE. MA ME SI LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER MODERE, LES EFFETS SUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE POURRAIT A TRE SIGNIFICATIF.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT A TRE AUSSI FAVORISA PAR LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE SUR LE MODELE EUROPEEN DONT LE
COUPLAGE OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE DEVRAIT BIEN ANTICIPER LA BAISSE
D'INTENSITE LIA AU FAIBLE DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI.=

>

2018-11-07 13:32

WTIO30 FMEE 071331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/08 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/08 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/09 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

THE BEST ALCIDE CLOUD PATTERN WAS OBSERVED WHEN ALCIDE HAS TRANSITED
OVER AGALEGA ISLAND WITH AN WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE MAURICIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS MEASURED A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 993 HPA AT
0700Z DURING THE TRANSIT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE 1000Z, CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED WITH A RAGGED AND OBSCURED EYE. BUT 1144Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH AN 85 GHZ
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE. SO, THE CURRENT WEAKENING CLOUD PATTERN IS
PROBABLY TEMPORARELY.

ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW. IN THAT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER STRONG. AT LONG RANGE, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY
THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT ALCIDE STRUCTURE. EVEN IF THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE, THE EFFECT ON THIS SMALL SIZE
SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THUS THE UNDERLYING WATER COOLING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON ECMWF MODEL WITH AN OCEAN/ATMOSPHERIC COUPLING
THAT SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE WEAKENING OF SYSTEM LINKED TO THE SLOWLY
MOVING FROM WEDNESDAY.=

>

2018-11-07 13:31

WTIO22 FMEE 071330 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 13:20

WTIO31 FMEE 071301

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/2/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

ALCIDE A CONNU SA MEILLEURE CONFIGURATION LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR
AGALEGA AVEC UN OEIL BIEN FORME EN IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE. LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A RELEVE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE
993 HPA LORS DU PASSAGE DU METEORE SUR L'A LE A 07Z. DEPUIS 10Z, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SE DEGRADE AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETA QUI
S'OBSCURCIT. MAIS L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1144Z MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN 85GHZ CE QUI LAISSE A
PENSER QUE LA DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE OBSERVEE
N'EST QUE TEMPORAIRE.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN.
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD
AVANT DE RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE AFFAIBLI POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET
SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET IMPACTER LA STRUCTURE DE ALCIDE. MA ME SI LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER MODERE, LES EFFETS SUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE POURRAIT A TRE SIGNIFICATIF.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT A TRE AUSSI FAVORISA PAR LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE SUR LE MODELE EUROPEEN DONT LE
COUPLAGE OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE DEVRAIT BIEN ANTICIPER LA BAISSE
D'INTENSITE LIA AU FAIBLE DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI.=

>

2018-11-07 13:20

WTIO30 FMEE 071301

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/08 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/08 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/09 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/10 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

THE BEST ALCIDE CLOUD PATTERN WAS OBSERVED WHEN ALCIDE HAS TRANSITED
OVER AGALEGA ISLAND WITH AN WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE MAURICIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS MEASURED A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 993 HPA AT
0700Z DURING THE TRANSIT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE 1000Z, CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED WITH A RAGGED AND OBSCURED EYE. BUT 1144Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH AN 85 GHZ
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE. SO, THE CURRENT WEAKENING CLOUD PATTERN IS
PROBABLY TEMPORARELY.

ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW. IN THAT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER STRONG. AT LONG RANGE, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY
THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT ALCIDE STRUCTURE. EVEN IF THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE, THE EFFECT ON THIS SMALL SIZE
SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THUS THE UNDERLYING WATER COOLING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON ECMWF MODEL WITH AN OCEAN/ATMOSPHERIC COUPLING
THAT SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE WEAKENING OF SYSTEM LINKED TO THE SLOWLY
MOVING FROM WEDNESDAY.=

>

2018-11-07 13:00

WTIO22 FMEE 071259 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 12:52

WTIO22 FMEE 071252 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 12:14

WTIO22 FMEE 071213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ALCIDE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 56.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 08:26

WTXS51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107073118
2018110706 03S ALCIDE 006 01 255 07 SATL 015
T000 102S 0569E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD
085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 107S 0557E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 114S 0546E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 117S 0543E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 122S 0540E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 127S 0538E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD
040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 130S 0536E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 129S 0532E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

>

2018-11-07 08:26

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-07 08:21

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107073118
2018110706 03S ALCIDE 006 01 255 07 SATL 015
T000 102S 0569E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 107S 0557E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 114S 0546E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 117S 0543E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 122S 0540E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 127S 0538E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 130S 0536E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 129S 0532E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110700 100S 576E 50
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
0318110706 102S 569E 65
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 08:21

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED
A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE COMPACT AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN A COL AS A
SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. COINCIDENTALLY,
VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS AND SSTS WILL COOL DOWN TO 26
CELSIUS AND CAUSE GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. BY
TAU 120, TC ALCIDE WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN WIDE DISARRAY SPREADING TO OVER 320 NM BY TAU
120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 07:33

WTIO31 FMEE 070732 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/2/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 56.9 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ALCIDE S'EST BIEN RENFORCA . TOUT
D'ABORD EN FIN DE NUIT, LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0152Z A MONTRE
UNE NETTE AMA LIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC LA FORMATION
D'UN OEIL EN 85 GHZ. PUIS, UN OEIL EST APPARU EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE A
LA FOIS EN IR ET VIS. COMPTE-TENU DE CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITE A ETE
ELEVEE AU STADE SUPA RIEURE DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICALE.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN.
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD
AVANT DE RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE AFFAIBLI POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES. IFS ET GFS PROPOSENT UNE PHILOSOPHIE SIMILAIRE
MAIS L'ANALYSE DU MODELE EUROPEEN RESTE TROP DECALE VERS LE NORD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET
SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET IMPACTER LA STRUCTURE DE ALCIDE. MA ME SI LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER MODERE, LES EFFETS SUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE POURRAIT A TRE SIGNIFICATIF.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT A TRE AUSSI FAVORISA PAR LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES.=

>

2018-11-07 07:33

WTIO30 FMEE 070732 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 56.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/07 18 UTC: 10.9 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/08 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/08 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALCIDE HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST,
AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, SSMIS 0152Z IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CLEAR
IMPROVEMENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH A 85GHZ EYE. THEN, AN EYE
HAS APPEARED IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY. SO, WITH THESE ELEMENTS, THE
CURRENT ASSESSMENT INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 60 KT.

ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITOUT
SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW. IN THAT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER STRONG. AT LONG RANGE, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY
THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MAJOR MODELS. IFS AND
GFS MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS WRONGLY
SHIFTED NORTH ALREADY AT ANALYSIS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT ALCIDE STRUCTURE. EVEN IF THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE, THE EFFECT ON THIS SMALL SIZE
SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THUS THE UNDERLYING WATER COOLING.=

>

2018-11-07 07:29

WTIO31 FMEE 070728

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/2/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 56.9 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ALCIDE S'EST BIEN RENFORCA . TOUT
D'ABORD EN FIN DE NUIT, LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0152Z A MONTRE
UNE NETTE AMA LIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC LA FORMATION
D'UN OEIL EN 85 GHZ. PUIS, UN OEIL EST APPARU EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE A
LA FOIS EN IR ET VIS. COMPTE-TENU DE CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITE A ETE
ELEVEE AU STADE SUPA RIEURE DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICALE.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN.
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD
AVANT DE RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE AFFAIBLI POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES. IFS ET GFS PROPOSENT UNE PHILOSOPHIE SIMILAIRE
MAIS L'ANALYSE DU MODELE EUROPEEN RESTE TROP DECALE VERS LE NORD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET
SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET IMPACTER LA STRUCTURE DE ALCIDE. MA ME SI LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER MODERE, LES EFFETS SUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE POURRAIT A TRE SIGNIFICATIF.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT A TRE AUSSI FAVORISA PAR LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES.=

>

2018-11-07 07:29

WTIO30 FMEE 070728

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 56.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/07 18 UTC: 10.9 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/11/08 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/11/08 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/11/10 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALCIDE HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST,
AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, SSMIS 0152Z IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CLEAR
IMPROVEMENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH A 85GHZ EYE. THEN, AN EYE
HAS APPEARED IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY. SO, WITH THESE ELEMENTS, THE
CURRENT ASSESSMENT INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 60 KT.

ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITOUT
SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW. IN THAT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER STRONG. AT LONG RANGE, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY
THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MAJOR MODELS. IFS AND
GFS MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS WRONGLY
SHIFTED NORTH ALREADY AT ANALYSIS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT ALCIDE STRUCTURE. EVEN IF THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE, THE EFFECT ON THIS SMALL SIZE
SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THUS THE UNDERLYING WATER COOLING.=

>

2018-11-07 06:36

WTIO22 FMEE 070636
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 56.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/07 AT 18 UTC:
10.9 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 06 UTC:
11.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-07 02:32

WTXS31 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.4S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-07 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107012720
2018110700 03S ALCIDE 005 01 265 08 SATL 030
T000 099S 0575E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 104S 0561E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 110S 0551E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 116S 0544E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 121S 0541E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 129S 0541E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 133S 0539E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 136S 0536E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
000 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

>

2018-11-07 02:26

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.4S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.3S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH OF AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55
KNOTS). THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC
03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE INFLUENCE OF AN STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE ALONG-TRACK SPEED TO SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AND DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECASTED TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
BUT BELOW THE HWRF MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THE MEMBERS REACT DIFFERENTLY
TO THE CHANGING STEERING INFLUENCES AND THE TRACKS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRACK TRENDS WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 02:17

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181107012720
2018110700 03S ALCIDE 005 01 265 08 SATL 030
T000 099S 0575E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 104S 0561E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 110S 0551E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 116S 0544E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 121S 0541E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 129S 0541E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 133S 0539E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 136S 0536E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.4S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.3S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
0318110700 99S 575E 50
0318110700 99S 575E 50
NNNN

>

2018-11-07 01:05

WTIO31 FMEE 070036

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/2/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.1 S / 57.6 E
(DIX DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 0 / 0 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/11/2018 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 08/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/11/2018 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 09/11/2018 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 10/11/2018 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/11/2018 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
120H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
LEGEREMENT EVOLUE EN UNE BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LA
DIVERGENCE APPARAIT TOUJOURS EXCELLENTE SUR LES IMAGES IR ET WV
NOTAMMENT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD. L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE REHAUSSE EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK.
EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE QUALITE, LA POSITION DU CENTRE
EST PLUS INCERTAINE. ALCIDE SE TROUVE A PRESENT A PRESQUE 100KM A
L'EST-NORD-EST D'AGALEGA.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN.
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD
AVANT DE RALENTIR DANS UNE ZONE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR MARQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE
D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEPENDRA DE L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE NETTEMENT AFFAIBLI POURRAIT ETRE
REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES. IFS ET GFS PROPOSENT UNE PHILOSOPHIE SIMILAIRE
MAIS LE MODELE EUROPEEN APPARAIT TROP DECALE VERS LE NORD DES LES
PREMIERES ECHEANCES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES AUJOURD'HUI AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE N'EST PAS EXCLUE MAIS LA STRUCTURE ENCORE ALLONGEE EN SURFACE
(GMI 1606Z) POURRAIT LIMITER CE RISQUE. L'INTENSITE POURRAIT DONC
ATTEINDRE LE PREMIER STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET
SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT ET DESTRUCTURER ALCIDE. CET AFFAIBLISSMENT
POURRAIT ETRE AUSSI FAVORISER PAR LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET
LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES. PAR RAPPORT A LA
PRECEDENTE PREVISION, LE TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A ETE UN PEU
RALENTI EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES.=

>

2018-11-07 01:05

WTIO30 FMEE 070036

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 57.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/07 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/08 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/08 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/11/09 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/09 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/10 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/11 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN SLIGHTLY EVOLVED INTO A CURVED
BAND IN THE NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT
ACCORDING TO IR AND WV IMAGERY ESPECIALLY POLARSIDE. INTENSITY WAS
THUS INCREASED IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS.
LACKING FROM RECENT RELIABLE MICROWAVE DATA, POSITION AT 00Z IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. ALCIDE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT NEARLY 100KM FROM AGALEGA,
IN ITS EAST-NORTH-EAST.


ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN AN AREA WITOUT
SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW. IN THAT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER STRONG AND VERY DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTIVE INTENSITY. AT
LONG RANGE, A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN AWAY BY THE TRADE
WINDS FLOW.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MAJOR MODELS. IFS AND
GFS MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS WRONGLY
SHIFTED NORTH ALREADY AT ANALYSIS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TODAY WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ENOUGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
NORTH OF 15S. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS NOT EXCLUDED BUT THE
ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION (GMI 1606Z) MAY LIMIT THAT RISK.
MAXIMUM WINDS MAY THEREFORE REACH HE FIRST LEVEL OF HURRICANE FORCE.
FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRIGGER A SEVERE DECAY.
IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND THUS THE UNDERLYING
WATER COOLING. COMPARING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WEAKENING IS A
BIT SLOWED DOWN GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.=

>

2018-11-07 00:20

WTIO22 FMEE 070018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 57.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/07 AT 12 UTC:
10.7 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/08 AT 00 UTC:
11.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-06 22:02

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-11-06 21:45

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.3S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.8S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 061751Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AND
THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). TC 03S IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER STR TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY
TO 80 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, COOL SST, HIGH VWS, AND DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE TC 03S TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY THROUGH 72 THEN MORE
RAPIDLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT SPREAD GETS LARGE AS THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST
COMPETES TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
PREDICTING A SLOW DRIFT POLEWARD AS THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE. BASED
ON TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES HAVING SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON TC 03S,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 21:34

WTXS51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106201419
2018110618 03S ALCIDE 004 01 255 09 SATL 030
T000 098S 0583E 045 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 103S 0569E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 109S 0558E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 117S 0550E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 123S 0546E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 128S 0543E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 131S 0540E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 134S 0535E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

>

2018-11-06 21:08

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106201419
2018110618 03S ALCIDE 004 01 255 09 SATL 030
T000 098S 0583E 045 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 103S 0569E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 109S 0558E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 117S 0550E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 123S 0546E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 128S 0543E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 131S 0540E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 134S 0535E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.3S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.8S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 592E 40
0318110618 98S 583E 45
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 19:47

WTIO31 FMEE 061846

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/2/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.8 S / 58.4 E
(NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 07/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 09/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
120H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PLUSIEURS POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT PRODUITES AU NORD IMMEDIAT DU CENTRE, AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS
(-90C). LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 1442Z ET GMI 1606Z)
SEMBLE INDIQUER QUE LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE EST MIEUX DEFINIE ET
S'EST RECALEE PAR RAPPORT AU VORTEX D'ALTITUDE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT A AUGMENTE.
AU VU DE CES DONNEES, LE SYSTEME A ETE ELEVE AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE ET BAPTISE ALCIDE PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE
MAURICIEN. LES DONNEES SMAP DE 1424Z ET LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE
1751Z SEMBLENT CONFIRMER LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT.

ALCIDE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, LES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VONT PRENDRE LA MAIN
ET LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT VENIR BUTER DANS UNE ZONE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SITUEE AU SUD. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER
PAR S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD JEUDI EN RALENTISSANT. DANS CES
CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES, L'INCERTITUDE EST RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE
D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SERA TRES DEPENDANT DE
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ALCIDE NETTEMENT AFFAIBLI
POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES. IFS ET GFS PROPOSENT UNE PHILOSOPHIE SIMILAIRE
MAIS LE MODELE EUROPEEN APPARAIT DECALE VERS LE NORD A CAUSE D'UNE
MAUVAISE ANALYSE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES CE SOIR ET DEMAIN
AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 15S. UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE N'EST PAS EXCLUE MAIS LA STRUCTURE ENCORE
ALLONGEE EN SURFACE (GMI 1606Z) POURRAIT LIMITER CE RISQUE.
L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC SE RAPPROCHER DU PREMIER STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE JEUDI ET SURTOUT VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT ET DESTRUCTURER
ALCIDE. CET AFFAIBLISSMENT POURRAIT ETRE AUSSI FAVORISER PAR LA
FAIBLE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS
JACENTES.=

>

2018-11-06 19:47

WTIO30 FMEE 061846

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 58.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/07 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/07 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/08 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/08 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/09 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/09 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/10 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SEVERAL CONVECTIVE THRUSTS OCCURRED JUST NORTH
OF THE CENTER WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS (-90C). LAST MICROWAVE DATA (SSMIS
1442Z AND GMI 1606Z) SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER SURFACE
CIRCULATION WHICH SHIFTED UNDER THE UPPER VORTEX. THUS, MOVEMENT
SPEED INCREASED.
GIVEN THESE DATA, THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS AND NAMED ALCIDE BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
1424Z SMAP DATA AS WELL AS PARTIAL 1751Z ASCAT SWATHS SUGGEST ALSO
THE EXISTENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

ALCIDE IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD M STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPENING,
THE MID-LEVELS PATTERNS WILL TAKE OVER AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
STORM SHOULD BE EVENTUALLY BLOCKED BY A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE TRACK WILL THUS BEGIN TO BEND
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING. IN THAT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG AND VERY DEPENDING ON THE
EFFECTIVE INTENSITY. AT LONG RANGE, A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM COULD BE
TAKEN AWAY BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MAJOR MODELS. IFS AND
GFS MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS SHIFTED
NORTH MAYBE DUE TO A BAD ANALYSIS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH AN
EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ENOUGH
OCEANIC POTENTIAL NORTH OF 15S. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS NOT
EXCLUDED BUT THE CURRENT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION (GMI 1606Z)
MAY LIMIT THAT RISK.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIKELY TO COME CLOSER TO THE FIRST LEVEL OF
HURRICANE FORCE. FROM THURSDAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY, NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
TRIGGER A SEVERE DECAY. IT MAY ALSO BE FAVORED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND THEREFORE THE UNDERLYING WATER COOLING.=

>

2018-11-06 18:26

WTIO22 FMEE 061824
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 58.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/07 AT 06 UTC:
10.3 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/07 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

>

2018-11-06 14:09

WTXS51 PGTW 061500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106132352
2018110612 03S THREE 004 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 096S 0593E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 102S 0578E 045 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 108S 0566E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 115S 0557E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 122S 0551E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 127S 0548E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 132S 0544E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 135S 0539E 035 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-06 14:09

WTXS31 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.2S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-06 14:05

WTXS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106132352
2018110612 03S THREE 004 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 096S 0593E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 102S 0578E 045 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 108S 0566E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 115S 0557E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 122S 0551E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 127S 0548E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 132S 0544E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 135S 0539E 035 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.2S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.7S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM NORTH OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
0318110612 96S 593E 35
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 14:04

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.2S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.7S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM NORTH OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CONCENTRATED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE TO A DEFINED LOW BRIGHTNESS LLC FEATURE IN THE
060952Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28-29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO 75 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. AFTERWARD, VWS
WILL INCREASE TO VERY HIGH VALUES (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS). THIS, IN
ADDITION TO COOLING SSTS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING.
BY TAU 120, TC 03S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CTCX THE NOTABLE
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. BY TAU 120, THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE
INTO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH THE WIDEST SPREAD AT OVER 330 NM. THIS
VERY ERRATIC PATTERN IS AN INDICATION OF DRASTIC WEAKENING. IN VIEW
OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 09:41

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED WARNING TIMES.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 09:07

WTXS51 PGTW 060900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106065039
2018110606 03S THREE 002 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 092S 0600E 035 R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 097S 0584E 045 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 103S 0570E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 110S 0558E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 119S 0551E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 129S 0544E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 135S 0541E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 139S 0537E 045 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-06 09:07

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-06 08:46

WTXS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106065039
2018110606 03S THREE 002 01 240 08 SATL 025
T000 092S 0600E 035 R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 097S 0584E 045 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 103S 0570E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 110S 0558E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 119S 0551E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 129S 0544E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 135S 0541E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 139S 0537E 045 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
0318110606 92S 600E 35
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 08:46

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO FAINT, BUT DEFINED LOW BRIGHTNESS LLC FEATURES IN THE
061516Z AMSU AND 060436Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28-29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THIS TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. VWS
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS
FROM TAU 48-72. AFTERWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE TO VERY HIGH VALUES
(GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS). THIS, IN ADDITION TO COOLING SSTS WILL LEAD
TO GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 03S WILL BE REDUCED
TO 45 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
CTCX THE NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. BY TAU 120, THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS BECOME VERY ERRATIC, AN INDICATION OF DRASTIC WEAKENING. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 02:32

WTXS51 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106014034
2018110600 03S THREE 001 01 255 13 SATL 060
T000 088S 0607E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 095S 0589E 045 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 101S 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 107S 0559E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 115S 0550E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 129S 0542E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 146S 0535E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 158S 0532E 050 R050 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

>

2018-11-06 02:32

WTXS31 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.5S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.1S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-11-06 02:25

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 181106014034
2018110600 03S THREE 001 01 255 13 SATL 060
T000 088S 0607E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 095S 0589E 045 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 101S 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 107S 0559E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 115S 0550E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 129S 0542E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 146S 0535E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 158S 0532E 050 R050 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.5S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.1S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.7S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
0318110406 65S 696E 25
0318110412 65S 683E 25
0318110418 67S 671E 25
0318110500 72S 654E 25
0318110506 75S 639E 25
0318110512 78S 632E 30
0318110518 84S 620E 30
0318110600 88S 607E 35
NNNN

>

2018-11-06 02:25

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.5S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.1S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.7S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING A 052318Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 03S IS
TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, ACHIEVING A NEARLY SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 120.
THROUGH TAU 72, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, COOLER SST AND
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 50 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF MODEL
BECAUSE THAT MODEL HAS A FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH HAS A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
AROUND THE STR, SIMILAR TO THE HWRF, ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS. THE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE TC COULD TURN EQUATORWARD OR WESTWARD BUT
THERE IS NOT ANOTHER ATTRACTOR AMONG THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. BASED ON
THE LARGE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 050800).//
NNNN

>