Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BARRY-19
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-07-15 15:56

WTNT82 EGRR 151555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 93.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2019 0 34.5N 93.4W 1009 20
0000UTC 16.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.3N 125.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.07.2019 72 12.3N 125.4W 1005 24
0000UTC 19.07.2019 84 14.1N 127.5W 1005 24
1200UTC 19.07.2019 96 15.5N 129.8W 1004 27
0000UTC 20.07.2019 108 17.2N 131.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 20.07.2019 120 19.0N 131.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 21.07.2019 132 20.5N 131.2W 1004 35
1200UTC 21.07.2019 144 20.7N 131.1W 1006 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.4N 136.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2019 96 12.0N 137.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 20.07.2019 108 13.3N 137.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 20.07.2019 120 14.9N 137.6W 1005 29
0000UTC 21.07.2019 132 15.8N 137.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 21.07.2019 144 16.0N 137.3W 1010 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151555

>

2019-07-15 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 151555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 93.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.07.2019 34.5N 93.4W WEAK
00UTC 16.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.3N 125.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.07.2019 12.3N 125.4W WEAK
00UTC 19.07.2019 14.1N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2019 15.5N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2019 17.2N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2019 19.0N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2019 20.5N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2019 20.7N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.4N 136.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2019 12.0N 137.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.07.2019 13.3N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2019 14.9N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2019 15.8N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2019 16.0N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151555

>

2019-07-15 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 150355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 33.1N 93.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2019 0 33.1N 93.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 12 34.7N 93.2W 1008 21
0000UTC 16.07.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.0N 140.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2019 120 12.0N 140.9W 1007 28
1200UTC 20.07.2019 132 13.7N 141.1W 1007 23
0000UTC 21.07.2019 144 15.0N 141.3W 1008 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 132.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2019 120 15.8N 132.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2019 132 17.9N 133.0W 1008 30
0000UTC 21.07.2019 144 19.5N 133.5W 1009 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.6N 109.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2019 132 11.6N 109.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 21.07.2019 144 12.5N 111.1W 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150355

>

2019-07-15 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 150355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 33.1N 93.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.07.2019 33.1N 93.6W WEAK
12UTC 15.07.2019 34.7N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.0N 140.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2019 12.0N 140.9W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2019 13.7N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2019 15.0N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 132.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2019 15.8N 132.2W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2019 17.9N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2019 19.5N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.6N 109.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2019 11.6N 109.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.07.2019 12.5N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150355

>

2019-07-14 20:37

WTNT42 KNHC 142033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has
continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to
locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport,
Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position. Although
sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the
past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
(PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds.
Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery
of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend
of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA.

Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone
continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant
low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over
the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path
inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi,
southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday.
Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central
Louisiana.

2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into
this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana.
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 20:36

WTNT32 KNHC 142032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Barry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 93.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Barry
was located by NOAA Doppler radars and surface observations near
latitude 32.8 North, longitude 93.6 West. The depression is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is
forecast tonight through Monday morning. A motion toward the
north-northeast and northeast is expected Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across
the northwestern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast well to
the southeast and south of the center. Further weakening is
expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by Monday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southern coast of Louisiana
will continue to subside into this evening. However, some minor
coastal flooding is still possible through today. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, southeast Missouri, and
northwest Mississippi.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm
totals of 10-15 inches are expected across south-central Louisiana.
This additional rainfall will lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.

WIND: Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, could occur across
the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana into this evening.
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Sunday night
across parts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama,
eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header
WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 20:36

WTNT22 KNHC 142032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 93.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 93.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 93.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-14 17:51

WTNT32 KNHC 141747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY CONTINUES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. The Tropical Storm
Warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located by NOAA Doppler radars and surface observations near
latitude 32.4 North, longitude 93.6 West. Barry is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion
is forecast tonight through Monday morning. A motion toward the
north-northeast and northeast is expected Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across
the northwestern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas
tonight and Monday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast well to
the southeast and south of the center. Weakening is expected as
the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to
a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at an NOS site
at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southern coast of Louisiana
are gradually receding. However, some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through today. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rain accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist
through early this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions
of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, eastern
Arkansas, and western Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 14:54

WTNT42 KNHC 141451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's radar and satellite presentations have continued to
degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However,
some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds still exist over water and along the south-central and
southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. Polk
WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt
at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf
of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt.
Thus, Barry's intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC
synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to
around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently
been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana.
Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC
advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface
observations.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the
subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast
late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the
various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model.

Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and
it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner.
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours
and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 14:49

WTNT32 KNHC 141445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the
Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. The Tropical Storm
Warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located by NOAA Doppler radars and surface observations near
latitude 31.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to
continue through Monday morning. A motion toward the north-northeast
and northeast is expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Barry will move across the western and
northern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and
Monday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast well to
the southeast of the center. Weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (64 km/h)
and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at an NOS site
at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was
also recently reported at a Weatherflow site at Cameron, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southern coast of Louisiana
are gradually receding. However, some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through today. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rain accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist
through early this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions
of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, eastern
Arkansas, and western Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 14:49

WTNT22 KNHC 141445
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 93.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 93.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 93.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 93.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-14 11:44

WTNT32 KNHC 141140
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 93.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PEASON RIDGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Mouth of Atchafalaya River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will move across the western and northern
portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast to the
southeast of the center. Weakening is expected as the center moves
farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind
of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cypremort Point,
Louisiana, located in Vermilion Bay.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist
through the morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and eastern
Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-14 08:43

WTNT42 KNHC 140839
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the
minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are
estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data,
but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These
lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective
band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and
southeast of the center.

The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but
smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt.
The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast
motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The
NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous
one, due to the initial position being further west than
anticipated.

Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should
become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models
suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and
become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely
shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central
Louisiana.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-14 08:43

WTNT32 KNHC 140839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 93.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Mouth of Atchafalaya River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across the western portion of central and
northern Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the
center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland,
and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions could persist
through the morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and eastern
Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-14 08:41

WTNT22 KNHC 140837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MOUTH OF ATCHAFALAYA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 93.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 93.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 93.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-14 05:54

WTNT32 KNHC 140549
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning from east of Morgan City to Grand Isle,
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New
Orleans has been discontinued.

All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning from the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to
Biloxi MS, including Lake Pontchartrain has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across central and northern Louisiana today, and
over Arkansas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast to
the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as
the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to
a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-
threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
through the morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle during the next few
hours.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and
southern and eastern Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-14 02:45

WTNT42 KNHC 140241
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry
continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the
winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds
are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion
Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the
basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue
to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into
a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours.

Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global
models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally
northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next
day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to
turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus
models.

It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry
over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected
to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.


Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and
continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches
or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier
rain that will lead to rapid water rises.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-14 02:44

WTNT32 KNHC 140240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Mississippi River
to east of Grand Isle has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle to Cameron
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Sunday, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across central Louisiana tonight, through
northern Louisiana on Sunday, and over Arkansas Sunday night
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast
to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected
as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken
to a depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-
threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
into Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Sunday across
portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and
southern and eastern Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-14 02:43

WTNT22 KNHC 140239
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO EAST OF GRAND ISLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE TO CAMERON
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 93.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 93.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 93.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-13 23:50

WTNT32 KNHC 132346
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY CONTINUES MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 92.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Cameron Louisiana has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 92.7 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will move across central Louisiana tonight, through northern
Louisiana on Sunday, and over Arkansas Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast
to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected
as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken
to a depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, has recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph and a
wind gust of 55 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in
New Iberia, Louisiana, recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous,
life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight
across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast
Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-13 21:25

WTNT32 KNHC 132121 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Corrected to remove Storm Surge Watch east of Biloxi

...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Louisiana coast has been
discontinued east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

The Storm Surge Watch east of Biloxi has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continued tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will move across southern and southwestern Louisiana this
evening, through central Louisiana tonight, and through northern
Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are near the coast to the
southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the
center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a
depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A United State Geological Survey station at
Cypremort Point, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of
62 mph, while the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 55 mph and a wind gust of
72 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in New Iberia,
Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a wind
gust of 61 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life
threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight
across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast
Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 21:23

WTNT22 KNHC 132118 CCA
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE STORM SURGE WATCH

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 92.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 92.3W AT 13/2100Z...INLAND
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 92.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 92.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-13 21:00

WTNT42 KNHC 132056
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and
Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system
has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial
intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from
Eugene Island and Cypremort Point.

The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue
north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next
30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level
ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should
encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they
dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the
previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models.

Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it
is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in
about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a
remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It
should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will
likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana
coast and the coastal waters.

Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center
definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in
post-analysis.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves
farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long
duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week,
extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 20:59

WTNT32 KNHC 132055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Louisiana coast has been
discontinued east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continued tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will move across southern and southwestern Louisiana this
evening, through central Louisiana tonight, and through northern
Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are near the coast to the
southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the
center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a
depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A United State Geological Survey station at
Cypremort Point, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of
62 mph, while the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 55 mph and a wind gust of
72 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in New Iberia,
Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a wind
gust of 61 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life
threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight
across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast
Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 20:59

WTNT22 KNHC 132054
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 92.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 92.3W AT 13/2100Z...INLAND
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 92.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 92.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-13 17:50

WTNT32 KNHC 131746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND WEAKENS
TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City.

The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast will likely be
discontinued later this afternoon as Barry moves farther inland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 92.1 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry
will move through southern Louisiana this afternoon, into central
Louisiana tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are located over water to the southeast of
the center. Weakening is expected as Barry moves farther inland,
and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph and a
wind gust of 72 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Warning areas to the east of the center. Wind
gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions
of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 14:59

WTNT42 KNHC 131455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of
the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in
terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5.
The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few
hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through
Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness
in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial
position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves
onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical
storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the
coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake
Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry
moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry
will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from
Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north
across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 14:58

WTNT32 KNHC 131454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast
from Cameron to Sabine Pass.

The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Barry is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will
move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana
tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean
Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of
the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm
Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 14:58

WTNT22 KNHC 131453
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM CAMERON TO SABINE PASS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST EAST OF GRAND ISLE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 92.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 92.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 120SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 92.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-13 11:56

WTNT32 KNHC 131152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the
south-central Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward
through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph
(115 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph and a
wind gust of 85 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 991 mb (29.26 inches). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-13 08:45

WTNT42 KNHC 130841
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some
of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana.
Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an
asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to
the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly
shear. The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are
starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate
some decrease in shear. The initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Doppler radar velocities between
10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on
surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing
down to the surface. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should
provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity.

Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest.
Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt.
A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected
to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to
12 hours. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and
north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi
Valley toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is
still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later
today. After landfall, steady weakening is expected and
Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours
and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days. The global
models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3
or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models
after that.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur
later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 29.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-13 08:44

WTNT32 KNHC 130840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest should begin soon, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central
Louisiana coast later today. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast later today. Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A mesonet observation in Houma, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A storm surge of 2.8 feet was recently reported at a National Ocean
Service tide gauge at New Canal Station.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-13 08:44

WTNT22 KNHC 130840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 91.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 91.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 105SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-13 05:39

WTNT32 KNHC 130534
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY INCHING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST AND EXPECTED TO
BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 91.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 91.1 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest should begin soon, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central
Louisiana coast later today. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast later today. Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Terrebonne Parish,
Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (65 km/h)
with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A storm surge of 2.7 feet was recently reported at a National Ocean
Service tide gauge at New Canal Station.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late today across
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-13 02:51

WTNT42 KNHC 130247
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this
afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective
mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There
has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern
and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this
evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of
64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite
northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in
convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level
outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a
hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this
is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical
models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the
center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system
is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the
longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn
northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should
bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast
of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry
is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the
aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into
the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC
track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side
of the envelope.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.6N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-13 02:51

WTNT32 KNHC 130246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest should begin overnight, followed by a turn
toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Barry will approach the south-central coast of
Louisiana tonight and then make landfall along the south-central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. An observation platform at South Timbalier Block
off the coast of Louisiana has recently reported a sustained wind
of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as Saturday morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions
currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area by tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through
Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-13 02:50

WTNT22 KNHC 130245
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 91.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 110SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 91.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-13 00:01

WTNT32 KNHC 122357
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 90.9 West. Barry has
been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to
resume a motion toward the west-northwest near 4 mph (6 km/h).
A motion toward the northwest should begin overnight, followed by
a turn toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will approach the south-central coast of
Louisiana tonight and then make landfall over the south-central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A reporting station near Houma, Louisiana,
recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to
48 mph (78 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at
Patterson, Louisiana, within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across
western portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions
currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical
Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by
tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls
are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through
Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-12 20:43

WTNT42 KNHC 122039
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite
imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A
prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the
eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there
were several reports of strong winds in association with this
feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but
to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from
becoming better organized.

The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn
northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a
weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and
this motion should bring the center across the central coast of
Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point,
after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies.
The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last
advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant
changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again
has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east
of the the various consensus models.

Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective
structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry
air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts
continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC
forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is
expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall
between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.7N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.1N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 31.3N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1800Z 35.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 38.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 20:41

WTNT32 KNHC 122037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 90.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest should begin during the next several hours,
followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Barry will approach the central or
southeastern coast of Louisiana through tonight and then make
landfall over the central Louisiana coast on Saturday. After
landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the
Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. An oil rig located southwest of the Mouth of the
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph and a
wind gust of 85 mph at an elevation of 295 ft.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across
western portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning
area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight
or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are
possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through
Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 20:41

WTNT22 KNHC 122037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 90.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 91.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.1N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 110SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.3N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 90.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-12 17:53

WTNT32 KNHC 121749
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 90.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 90.6 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and
Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the
Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
55 mph and a wind gust of 66 mph at an elevation of 125 ft. An oil
rig located southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River recently
reported sustained winds of 76 mph and a wind gust of 87 mph at an
elevation of 295 ft.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along
with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life
threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight
or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are
possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and
the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 121600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 105.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 0 14.7N 105.1W 1008 19
0000UTC 13.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 36.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 0 10.1N 36.5W 1013 22
0000UTC 13.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 90.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 0 28.0N 90.2W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 12 28.5N 90.9W 995 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 24 29.5N 92.3W 992 56
0000UTC 14.07.2019 36 30.6N 93.1W 993 47
1200UTC 14.07.2019 48 31.7N 94.2W 999 35
0000UTC 15.07.2019 60 33.0N 94.5W 997 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 72 34.8N 94.9W 1000 20
0000UTC 16.07.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121559

>

2019-07-12 14:52

WTNT42 KNHC 121448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Barry has strengthened during the past several hours.
The Air Force plane reported maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 62
kt and reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt in the strong
convection that has developed in the southern quadrant. In
addition, the data from both planes indicate the central pressure
has fallen to near 998 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt. Data from the NOAA plane, which is
flying near 460 mb, shows that the center at that level is south of
the low-level center, likely due to ongoing northerly shear.

The initial motion is an erratic 290/4. While there is still a
larger than normal spread between the UKMET on the left side and the
HWRF on the right side, the track guidance has come into better
agreement that Barry will turn northwestward later today or tonight,
with this motion continuing until the center makes landfall along
the Louisiana coast in 24-30 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge of high pressure over
the United States until the 72 h point, after which it should
recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new track forecast
has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near
the various consensus models.

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 14:52

WTNT32 KNHC 121448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT BARRY IS STRENGTHENING...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Lake Pontchartrain
and east of Shell Beach to Biloxi Mississippi.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along
with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life
threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight
or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are
possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and
the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 14:51

WTNT22 KNHC 121447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND EAST OF SHELL BEACH TO BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 90.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 110SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 220SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 90.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 90.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-12 11:49

WTNT32 KNHC 121145
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical
Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.3
West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or
southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then move
inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane tonight or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center. An United States Geological Survey
station near Point a la Hache, Louisiana recently reported sustained
winds of 38 mph.

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin later today. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical
Storm Warning area starting early today, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by tonight or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama
coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-12 08:39

WTNT42 KNHC 120835
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone
on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a
cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and
the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center.
Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force
winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane
sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level
winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial
intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance
plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours.

Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius,
and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC
intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a
hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall
in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening
despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air.
After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated.

The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward
the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the
average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger
circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward
the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level
ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC
forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the
middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-12 08:38

WTNT32 KNHC 120834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY HEADING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical
Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 90.2
West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or
southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then
move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, a few
hours ago, indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane
tonight or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana
coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure estimated from a surface
observations nearby was 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin later today. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical
Storm Warning area starting early today, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by tonight or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama
coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-12 08:38

WTNT22 KNHC 120834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0900 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 90.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 90.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 90.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 90.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-12 05:50

WTNT32 KNHC 120546
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 89.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin later
today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and
then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Barry could become a hurricane Friday night or early
Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is
expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-12 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 120355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 103.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 14.0N 103.4W 1008 17
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.1N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 9.1N 33.5W 1013 20
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120355

>

2019-07-12 03:08

WTNT32 KNHC 120303 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 7...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

CORRECTED STORM SURGE WATCH SECTION

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 89.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-12 03:07

WTNT22 KNHC 120302 CCA
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019

CORRECTED STORM SURGE WATCH SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 89.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-12 02:59

WTNT42 KNHC 120255
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the
storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has
strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45
kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased
to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also
reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and
dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity
guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during
the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast.
Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show
Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur
before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected
while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best
agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model.

Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical
storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around
the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After
that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn
northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall
track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET
is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the
18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the
envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous
official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus
models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-12 02:57

WTNT32 KNHC 120253
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 89.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-12 02:57

WTNT22 KNHC 120253
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 89.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-11 23:57

WTNT32 KNHC 112353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry has
moved little over the past few hours, but a motion toward the west
near 3 mph (5 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two,
and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday
when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected
after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-11 21:03

WTNT42 KNHC 112058
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Barry has become a little better organized since the last advisory,
with a convective band forming closer to the center in the southern
semicircle and the central pressure falling to near 1003 mb.
However, the strongest winds are still 70 nm or more from the
center, and there are several cloud swirls rotating around the mean
center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on earlier
aircraft and scatterometer data, but it is possible this is a little
conservative.

The initial motion is 275/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low-
to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is
forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the
cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However,
there remains a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and
HMON forecast Barry to move generally northward across southeastern
Louisiana, while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean take the
cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian
models lie between these extremes. There was a slight westward
shift in the guidance envelope since the last advisory, which
resulted in the consensus models being close to the previous NHC
forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is similar to
the previous track, and it calls for the center of Barry to make
landfall on the central Louisiana coast between 36-48 h. After
72 h, the cyclone should recurve northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies.

Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16
airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from
the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this
has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good
agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for
intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the
forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a
hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with
the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it
moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become
a remnant low by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 27.9N 89.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 28.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 29.0N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 30.0N 91.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 21:00

WTNT32 KNHC 112056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana
from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday,
and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry
could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the
center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust
of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 20:58

WTNT22 KNHC 112054
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC THU JUL 11 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOWE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO SHELL BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 89.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.3N 90.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 91.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.5N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 89.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-11 17:57

WTNT32 KNHC 111753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday.
On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and
Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 14:57

WTNT42 KNHC 111453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 14:56

WTNT32 KNHC 111452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from
the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast
east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
metropolitan New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from
the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 88.7 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late
Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 14:56

WTNT22 KNHC 111452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC THU JUL 11 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO SHELL BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER...AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO SHELL BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 88.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 88.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-11 11:57

WTNT32 KNHC 111153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Warnings and additional watches may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today. Interests elsewhere along the U.S.
Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.6 North, longitude 88.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

The associated thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming
better organized, and the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days ...high...near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure based on recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-11 08:51

WTNT42 KNHC 110846
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The convective activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation
is not well defined at this time. Both surface and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt. The modest
northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further
development. Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today,
and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is
indicated. The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were
in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane
status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the
coast.

During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely
moved due to weak steering currents. However, a westward or
260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon. The system is
heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should
induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north
during the next 3 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast continues to
be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has
been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the
multi-model ensemble TVCA. It should be noted that track errors
are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more
mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the
track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high at the moment.


Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 27.5N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-11 08:50

WTNT32 KNHC 110845
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-11 08:49

WTNT22 KNHC 110845
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-11 05:48

WTNT32 KNHC 110543
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. The system has barely moved
during the past few hours, but a motion toward the west-southwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h) should resume later today. A west-northwest
motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track
by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the Louisiana coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
later today.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-11 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 110355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 87.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.07.2019 0 27.9N 87.8W 1010 21
1200UTC 11.07.2019 12 27.9N 88.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 12.07.2019 24 27.6N 89.3W 1000 33
1200UTC 12.07.2019 36 27.9N 91.1W 995 47
0000UTC 13.07.2019 48 28.1N 92.1W 986 59
1200UTC 13.07.2019 60 28.5N 93.5W 975 76
0000UTC 14.07.2019 72 29.8N 94.2W 963 71
1200UTC 14.07.2019 84 31.6N 95.2W 980 38
0000UTC 15.07.2019 96 32.8N 96.9W 992 26
1200UTC 15.07.2019 108 34.3N 98.0W 1001 21
0000UTC 16.07.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110355

>

2019-07-11 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 110355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 87.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.07.2019 27.9N 87.8W WEAK
12UTC 11.07.2019 27.9N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2019 27.6N 89.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2019 27.9N 91.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2019 28.1N 92.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.07.2019 28.5N 93.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2019 29.8N 94.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.07.2019 31.6N 95.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.07.2019 32.8N 96.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2019 34.3N 98.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110355

>

2019-07-11 02:49

WTNT42 KNHC 110245
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

The system is becoming better organized, and it is almost a
tropical depression. Satellite images show a persistent area of
deep convection near the estimated center with loosely organized
bands surrounding that feature. Earlier, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
found that the pressure has dropped a little to 1009 mb, although
the center is not yet well defined. The estimated initial intensity
is still 25 kt based on surface observations and the NOAA dropsonde
data.

The broad low is moving west-southwestward at about 8 kt. The track
models are in general agreement that a mid-level ridge centered over
the Rockies should cause the system to move slowly westward on
Thursday and west-northwestward on Friday. After that time,
however, the models diverge considerably with some solutions showing
an abrupt northward turn toward a weakness in the ridge and others
showing a more gradual one. The latest GFS run has shifted to the
west of its previous track, closer to the previous NHC forecast,
while the HWRF model has shifted to the right. Based on the overall
guidance spread, this track forecast is nudged to the east of the
previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus models,
which typically are the most reliable. However, this forecast is
still near the western edge of the model envelope. It should be
noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical
cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run
consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the
details of the forecast is not high at the moment.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, only slow
strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so. However,
after that time more significant strengthening is likely due to
very warm SSTs across the northern Gulf of Mexico, a fairly moist
atmosphere, and a favorable upper-level pattern over the system.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a
hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely
beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is
predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days. This forecast is
fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form on Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed on Thursday. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be needed on Thursday. Residents in the watch area should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1200Z 27.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.9N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.3N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.2N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 35.5N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-11 02:41

WTNT32 KNHC 110237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-northwest motion on
Friday and a northwestward motion by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early
Thursday, a tropical storm by late Thursday, and a hurricane by late
Friday.

The circulation of the low continues to become better defined, and
the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-11 02:40

WTNT22 KNHC 110236
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
0300 UTC THU JUL 11 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 88.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 88.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.6N 88.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.9N 90.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.3N 91.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 88.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-10 23:36

WTNT32 KNHC 102332
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected on Thursday, followed by west-northwest motion on
Friday and a northwestward motion by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf
Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early
Thursday, a tropical storm by Thursday night, and a hurricane on
Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is expected to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm on Thursday.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1010 mb (29.86
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-10 21:03

WTNT42 KNHC 102059
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
center.

The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
and HCCA models.

Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 28.1N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-10 20:40

WTNT32 KNHC 102036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected
to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-10 20:40

WTNT22 KNHC 102036
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 87.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 87.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-10 17:35

WTNT32 KNHC 101731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk...please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 86.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion
is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-10 15:56

WTNT82 EGRR 101555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 86.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2019 0 29.4N 86.5W 1012 24
0000UTC 11.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.8N 89.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 24 27.8N 89.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 12.07.2019 36 27.5N 90.7W 997 41
1200UTC 12.07.2019 48 27.2N 92.6W 987 63
0000UTC 13.07.2019 60 27.5N 94.0W 972 72
1200UTC 13.07.2019 72 28.4N 95.2W 947 88
0000UTC 14.07.2019 84 29.7N 96.3W 965 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 96 31.3N 97.3W 976 47
0000UTC 15.07.2019 108 32.7N 99.0W 984 37
1200UTC 15.07.2019 120 33.9N 100.1W 993 34
0000UTC 16.07.2019 132 35.2N 101.3W 997 30
1200UTC 16.07.2019 144 36.9N 101.0W 997 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101555

>

2019-07-10 15:01

WTNT42 KNHC 101457
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-10 14:41

WTNT32 KNHC 101437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-10 14:39

WTNT22 KNHC 101435
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>