Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MELISSA-19
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2019 0 23.9N 112.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 89.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2019 0 11.0N 89.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 18.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2019 0 14.0N 18.7W 1010 23
0000UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 172.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2019 0 25.5N 172.1W 1011 28
0000UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 41.1N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2019 0 41.1N 52.7W 1010 27
0000UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.1N 91.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 24 12.7N 91.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 16.10.2019 36 14.0N 95.1W 999 38
1200UTC 16.10.2019 48 15.2N 96.8W 1000 52
0000UTC 17.10.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.6N 127.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2019 96 10.6N 127.0W 1009 23
0000UTC 19.10.2019 108 11.2N 126.8W 1009 24
1200UTC 19.10.2019 120 11.4N 126.4W 1010 23
0000UTC 20.10.2019 132 11.5N 126.1W 1009 21
1200UTC 20.10.2019 144 11.1N 126.1W 1009 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.0N 89.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 120 26.0N 89.0W 1003 29
0000UTC 20.10.2019 132 27.8N 87.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 144 30.1N 84.8W 1006 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141557

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2019 23.9N 112.0W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 89.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2019 11.0N 89.6W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 18.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2019 14.0N 18.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 172.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2019 25.5N 172.1W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 41.1N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2019 41.1N 52.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.1N 91.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 12.7N 91.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2019 14.0N 95.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 15.2N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.6N 127.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.10.2019 10.6N 127.0W WEAK
00UTC 19.10.2019 11.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2019 11.4N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 11.5N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 11.1N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.0N 89.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 26.0N 89.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2019 27.8N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 30.1N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141557

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141438
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow
convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the
center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a
frontal zone. The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds
with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into
the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship
report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds
are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be
this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is
expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate
before it reaches the Azores.

Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within
mid-latitude westerlies. This general motion is expected to
continue until the cyclone dissipates.

This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 41.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 51.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Melissa was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 51.4 West.
Melissa is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The cyclone should gradually weaken before it dissipates on
Tuesday.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to
the southeast through southwest of the from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along
much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141437
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 51.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140830
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 54.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 54.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.5N 43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa is hanging on to tropical storm status. Satellite images
indicate that an area of deep convection continues to pulse in the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but the remainder of the
cyclone consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The center of
Melissa is losing definition as it is becoming increasingly
elongated from northeast to southwest due to the interaction with
a front about 90 n mi to its northwest. An ASCAT-C pass from around
0100 UTC showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at that value. This
wind speed estimate is a little higher than the Dvorak estimates.

Melissa is expected to remain in hostile conditions of strong
westerly wind shear and dry mid-level air, and it is headed for
progressively cooler waters. These conditions should promote
weakening and ultimately dissipation within a day or two.
Although the official forecast doesn't show Melissa dissipating
until 36 hours, most of the models show the storm opening up into a
trough later today, so it could certainly dissipate sooner than
forecast.

The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 17 kt. An even
faster east-northeast to east motion is expected until the
cyclone dissipates as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 40.7N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 41.2N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 41.5N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...MELISSA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 54.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster
east-northeast or east motion is expected later today and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along
much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2019 0 22.6N 112.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 14.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 19.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2019 0 13.0N 19.3W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 167.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2019 0 23.2N 167.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 14.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.1N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2019 0 40.1N 57.7W 1005 31
1200UTC 14.10.2019 12 41.1N 52.8W 1010 29
0000UTC 15.10.2019 24 41.6N 46.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 15.10.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.5N 92.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 36 12.5N 92.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 16.10.2019 48 13.6N 95.4W 996 41
1200UTC 16.10.2019 60 15.5N 97.8W 991 58
0000UTC 17.10.2019 72 17.8N 101.7W 1001 26
1200UTC 17.10.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.3N 22.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 36 15.3N 22.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 16.10.2019 48 16.7N 22.9W 1007 31
1200UTC 16.10.2019 60 18.0N 23.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 17.10.2019 72 19.7N 24.1W 1011 25
1200UTC 17.10.2019 84 20.5N 24.4W 1013 22
0000UTC 18.10.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.4N 171.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 120 11.7N 171.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 19.10.2019 132 12.8N 170.4W 1008 24
0000UTC 20.10.2019 144 14.2N 169.9W 1006 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140357

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease
in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been
held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak
current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that
revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center. Strong
westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of
storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate
into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday. The global
models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt. There has been
no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Melissa should
accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or
two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 40.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 56.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A further increase in
forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday,
with that motion continuing into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected tonight, and Melissa is forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding will occur along some
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast through
early Monday around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa that are affecting much of
U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada will gradually subside on Monday. These swells are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140244
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132040
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has
decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the
past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the
northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming
dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data
showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and
subsequent erosion of the convective pattern.

Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the
initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in
forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is
expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly
packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more
than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the
current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by
Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with
a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 39.9N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 58.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 58.8 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A further increase
in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday,
with that motion continuing into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Melissa is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or
early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches) is
based on reports from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
today around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132039
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 58.8W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 58.8W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 58.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 16.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2019 0 14.0N 16.3W 1009 21
0000UTC 14.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2019 0 20.2N 113.2W 1005 24
0000UTC 14.10.2019 12 21.2N 113.0W 1005 24
1200UTC 14.10.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 165.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2019 0 22.1N 165.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 14.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 39.6N 61.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2019 0 39.6N 61.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 14.10.2019 12 40.3N 57.9W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.10.2019 24 41.4N 53.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 15.10.2019 36 41.7N 47.1W 1013 27
1200UTC 15.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 92.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 48 13.2N 94.0W 1000 38
0000UTC 16.10.2019 60 14.2N 97.0W 990 56
1200UTC 16.10.2019 72 16.4N 99.8W 993 55
0000UTC 17.10.2019 84 17.4N 103.8W 1001 41
1200UTC 17.10.2019 96 18.5N 105.6W 998 41
0000UTC 18.10.2019 108 20.0N 106.9W 987 54
1200UTC 18.10.2019 120 21.4N 107.4W 986 52
0000UTC 19.10.2019 132 22.2N 106.6W 984 54
1200UTC 19.10.2019 144 23.2N 105.8W 1003 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.1N 21.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 48 15.1N 21.8W 1009 27
0000UTC 16.10.2019 60 16.7N 22.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.10.2019 72 18.2N 22.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 17.10.2019 84 20.6N 22.9W 1011 25
1200UTC 17.10.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 16.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2019 14.0N 16.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2019 20.2N 113.2W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2019 21.2N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 165.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2019 22.1N 165.7W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 39.6N 61.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2019 39.6N 61.7W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2019 40.3N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 41.4N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2019 41.7N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 92.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 13.2N 94.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2019 14.2N 97.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2019 16.4N 99.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 17.4N 103.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2019 18.5N 105.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2019 20.0N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2019 21.4N 107.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2019 22.2N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2019 23.2N 105.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.1N 21.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 15.1N 21.8W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2019 16.7N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 18.2N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 20.6N 22.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131555

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 131434
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

After an overnight convective hiatus, likely due to Melissa passing
over a narrow band of cold water, deep convection has increased near
the center and a curved band of broken convection has developed in
the eastern semicircle. A 12Z TAFB shear pattern satellite intensity
estimate resulted in 45 kt while the curved band pattern produced 35
kt. An average of these estimates yields 40 kt, which is close to
the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates of 44 kt and 43
kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

Melissa is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward and the
initial motion estimate is now 075/15 kt. A further increase in
forward speed combined with an eastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days as Melissa moves around the northern periphery
of the deep-layer Bermuda-Azores high. By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Melissa is forecast to turn toward the east-southeast as
a weakening extratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track
forecast was nudged a little to the right of the previous advisory,
and lies near the middle of the tightly-packed consensus guidance
envelope.

The westerly wind shear across Melissa is currently around 20 kt and
the cyclone is moving over sub-25 degree C sea-surface temperatures
(SST). Water temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to
decrease to 21-22 deg C within 12 hours, while the shear is expected
to increase to 25-30 kt. The combination of these two negative
factors will result in weakening by this evening, which will
continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, with
Melissa becoming a post-tropical remnant by Monday and merging with
a frontal system or larger extratropical low by Wednesday. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 39.8N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 40.5N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 41.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0000Z 41.9N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z 41.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 60.9W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 60.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today. An increase in forward speed
and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday, with that motion
continuing into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low by tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
today around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 131431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 60.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 60.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.5N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.4N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.9N 47.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.8N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 60.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

Satellite images indicate that Melissa has lost organization
overnight. Deep convection separated from the low-level center a
little before 0000 UTC, and now its convection is confined to a new
area about 50 n mi north and northeast of the center. This degraded
appearance in the cyclone's structure is due to about 20 kt of
westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. An ASCAT pass
from around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range,
but since the convective pattern has degraded since then, the
initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt. This estimate is also near
an average of the Dvorak FT and CI numbers from TAFB.

The westerly shear is expected to increase even more during the
next couple of days. These hostile winds aloft combined with the
continued influence of dry and stable air should cause continued
weakening, and Melissa is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in
about 24 hours, when it is forecast to be over SSTs below 22 C. The
global models show the remnants of Melissa becoming absorbed or
merging with a front in 2 to 3 days.

Melissa has moved a little to the north of the previous track, with
the initial motion now estimated to be 065/12 kt. The steering
pattern is expected to become more zonal during the next couple of
days, which should cause Melissa to move generally eastward at
increasing forward speeds before it is absorbed within the
frontal zone. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to
the north of the previous one to account for the initial motion and
position. This forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 39.3N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 40.2N 59.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 41.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z 42.0N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0600Z 42.3N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 62.6W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 62.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). An
increase in forward speed and a turn to the east are expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low by tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
today around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130830
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 62.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 62.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 41.1N 55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 42.0N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 42.3N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 114.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2019 0 19.0N 114.1W 1004 23
1200UTC 13.10.2019 12 20.2N 113.1W 1004 24
0000UTC 14.10.2019 24 22.0N 113.4W 1004 23
1200UTC 14.10.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 164.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2019 0 20.8N 164.5W 1010 22
1200UTC 13.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2019 0 38.6N 64.9W 999 37
1200UTC 13.10.2019 12 39.6N 61.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 14.10.2019 24 40.3N 58.1W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.10.2019 36 41.1N 53.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 15.10.2019 48 41.3N 48.6W 1014 25
1200UTC 15.10.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.7N 20.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 48 14.7N 20.4W 1007 25
1200UTC 15.10.2019 60 15.3N 20.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 16.10.2019 72 16.8N 21.6W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.10.2019 84 18.7N 22.1W 1003 37
0000UTC 17.10.2019 96 20.7N 22.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 17.10.2019 108 22.0N 22.1W 1011 27
0000UTC 18.10.2019 120 22.5N 22.5W 1013 23
1200UTC 18.10.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 92.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 60 13.0N 94.3W 997 39
0000UTC 16.10.2019 72 14.1N 97.1W 988 54
1200UTC 16.10.2019 84 16.3N 100.1W 989 59
0000UTC 17.10.2019 96 17.8N 103.6W 998 53
1200UTC 17.10.2019 108 18.6N 105.4W 994 49
0000UTC 18.10.2019 120 20.4N 105.9W 986 54
1200UTC 18.10.2019 132 21.6N 106.4W 990 48
0000UTC 19.10.2019 144 22.0N 104.9W 1003 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.4N 119.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 108 11.4N 119.6W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.10.2019 120 12.2N 118.4W 1005 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 132 13.8N 117.0W 1006 36
0000UTC 19.10.2019 144 15.3N 115.3W 1007 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130355

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 130355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 114.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2019 19.0N 114.1W WEAK
12UTC 13.10.2019 20.2N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2019 22.0N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 164.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2019 20.8N 164.5W WEAK
12UTC 13.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2019 38.6N 64.9W MODERATE
12UTC 13.10.2019 39.6N 61.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2019 40.3N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 41.1N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2019 41.3N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.7N 20.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2019 14.7N 20.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.10.2019 15.3N 20.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2019 16.8N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 18.7N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 20.7N 22.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2019 22.0N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2019 22.5N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 92.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 13.0N 94.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2019 14.1N 97.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2019 16.3N 100.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 17.8N 103.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2019 18.6N 105.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.10.2019 20.4N 105.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2019 21.6N 106.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2019 22.0N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.4N 119.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2019 11.4N 119.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2019 12.2N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2019 13.8N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2019 15.3N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130355

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130242
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over
Melissa, and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the
western edge of the central convective mass. However, this has not
yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity
thus remains 45 kt. There have been significant changes to the
initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is now 080/12. Melissa should be steered
generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of
the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a
frontal zone after 72 h. There is little change to either the
forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory,
and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus
models.

Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the
next three days. In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy
of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm
should encounter much colder water. This combination should cause
Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after
24 h. While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous
forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep
Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage
over the warm water eddy.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Key Messages:

1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still
expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern
coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend.
For more information, see products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 38.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 64.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward
speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday or
Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130241
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 64.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 64.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 122034
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa
throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects
of increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from the
western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late
this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm
had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of
the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had
decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical
structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely
that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some
point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an
objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer
pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to
gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the
cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper
trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection
will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or
so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken,
and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by
Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be
capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the
northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone
itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,
and continues to be lower than the global model guidance.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasing
westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through
Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in
a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone.
The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the
middle of the various consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Key Messages:

1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the
east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected
along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts
around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more
information, see products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA MAKES A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 65.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast at near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will
continue to move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England
coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 122033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 65.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..720NE 120SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 65.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 121556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2019 11.5N 97.7W WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 115.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2019 14.9N 115.5W WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2019 18.8N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2019 20.8N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2019 21.8N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 163.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2019 19.4N 163.3W WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.1N 67.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2019 38.1N 67.5W MODERATE
00UTC 13.10.2019 38.6N 65.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2019 39.3N 62.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2019 40.1N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 40.9N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2019 41.7N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2019 41.5N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2019 40.9N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.9N 21.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2019 13.9N 21.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.10.2019 14.2N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2019 15.3N 22.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 16.9N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 18.5N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2019 19.7N 23.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2019 20.5N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121556

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 121556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2019 0 11.5N 97.7W 1008 26
0000UTC 13.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 115.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2019 0 14.9N 115.5W 1005 24
0000UTC 13.10.2019 12 18.8N 113.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 13.10.2019 24 20.8N 113.9W 1003 24
0000UTC 14.10.2019 36 21.8N 113.1W 1004 24
1200UTC 14.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 163.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2019 0 19.4N 163.3W 1011 23
0000UTC 13.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.1N 67.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2019 0 38.1N 67.5W 997 29
0000UTC 13.10.2019 12 38.6N 65.3W 1000 32
1200UTC 13.10.2019 24 39.3N 62.1W 1004 30
0000UTC 14.10.2019 36 40.1N 58.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.10.2019 48 40.9N 54.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 15.10.2019 60 41.7N 49.2W 1013 24
1200UTC 15.10.2019 72 41.5N 43.9W 1014 24
0000UTC 16.10.2019 84 40.9N 39.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 16.10.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.9N 21.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 60 13.9N 21.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 15.10.2019 72 14.2N 22.1W 1007 26
0000UTC 16.10.2019 84 15.3N 22.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 16.10.2019 96 16.9N 23.4W 1005 34
0000UTC 17.10.2019 108 18.5N 23.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 17.10.2019 120 19.7N 23.7W 1011 28
0000UTC 18.10.2019 132 20.5N 24.8W 1012 24
1200UTC 18.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121556

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121449
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

A small area of deep convection has persisted for the past several
hours over and around the center of Melissa. Recent AMSU microwave
temperature data indicate that a warm core exists at least above 550
mb. It is uncertain, however, if this warm core is due to the
intrusion of warmer temperatures aloft embedded in the upper trough
over Melissa, or if the warming was induced by convective feedback.
If deep convection persists into the afternoon, then it is more
likely that the warm core is due to the convection, and Melissa
could transition to a tropical cyclone by that time. Based on
nearby surface observations, the wind field immediately surrounding
Melissa has contracted, with no evidence of gale-force winds beyond
150 n mi from the center. Given the convection near the center, the
strongest winds are now most likely occurring in that region. The
latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB is 45-50 kt, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON tropical estimates are
41 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity is
being held at 45 kt.

The upper trough over Melissa is forecast to weaken and lift
northeastward through tonight, which would remove the upper-level
support for the subtropical storm. Increasing westerly wind shear
and progressively cooler SSTs should weaken the cyclone over the
next few days, with Melissa moving over waters of 23-24 C tonight.
This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and transition
to a remnant low by Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone is expected
to persist for a couple of days just ahead of a frontal zone before
it is finally absorbed by the front in 3-4 days. The NHC forecast
is near the consensus aids at 12 hours, but a little below that
guidance through Sunday, as the global models appear to be capturing
the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast
of Melissa, and not directly associated with the cyclone itself.

Melissa is now moving east-northeastward, or 070/08 kt. Increasing
westerly flow will cause the cyclone to accelerate tonight through
Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by
a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous
one and in the middle of the various consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Gale-force winds that extend from offshore of Nova Scotia eastward
over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii since they are
associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and
coastal flooding impacts.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England
coasts around times of high tide today. For more information,
see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast
offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 38.1N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 38.7N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 39.6N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 40.3N 58.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 41.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z 42.2N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Melissa
is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On the
forecast track, Melissa will continue to move away from the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening
tonight. Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
by Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New
England coast today around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121446
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 30SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..780NE 120SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.7N 65.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.6N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.3N 58.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.0N 54.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 42.2N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 67.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120831
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Deep convection has increased a little near the center of Melissa
during the past few hours, likely because it has moved over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream current. However, convection is
quite limited elsewhere. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 40 kt in the northwestern quadrant.
However, this pass did not completely capture the entire
circulation, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt given that
stronger winds could exist in the regions not sampled. This
intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest
satellite estimates as well.

Melissa is expected to resume weakening later today due to a
combination of an increase in westerly wind shear and intrusions of
dry air. The cyclone will likely degenerate to a remnant low in
about 24 hours when the system is forecast to be over SSTs of 23 to
24 C. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least a couple of
days before it is absorbed within a frontal zone over the north
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models.

The subtropical storm has turned northeastward during the last
several hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 055/6
kt. The weakening system is expected to become more embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next few days, and as a
result, a turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward
speed is forecast, taking the cyclone away from the Mid-Atlantic and
northeast U.S. coastline. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest model runs.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend from Nova Scotia eastward over the
Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are
associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and
coastal flooding impacts.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England
coasts around times of high tide today. For more information,
see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast
offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 38.1N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 38.4N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 39.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 40.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 41.6N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 68.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 68.2 West. The storm
is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a gradual
increase in forward speed on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, Melissa will gradually move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
and New England coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Melissa is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight or early Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible across portions of Cape
Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket during the next few hours.

COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New
England coast today around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120830
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 68.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..780NE 120SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 68.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.4N 66.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.6N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.3N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.6N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 98.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2019 0 13.5N 98.9W 1008 22
1200UTC 12.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 114.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2019 0 14.4N 114.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 12.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.7N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2019 0 37.7N 68.9W 997 37
1200UTC 12.10.2019 12 38.2N 67.8W 996 30
0000UTC 13.10.2019 24 38.5N 65.6W 998 32
1200UTC 13.10.2019 36 39.1N 62.4W 1003 32
0000UTC 14.10.2019 48 39.5N 58.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.10.2019 60 40.1N 54.6W 1009 25
0000UTC 15.10.2019 72 40.9N 49.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 15.10.2019 84 40.8N 44.7W 1013 26
0000UTC 16.10.2019 96 39.7N 40.5W 1015 25
1200UTC 16.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.4N 19.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 72 15.1N 20.5W 1007 27
1200UTC 15.10.2019 84 15.8N 21.3W 1005 34
0000UTC 16.10.2019 96 17.2N 21.5W 1005 35
1200UTC 16.10.2019 108 19.1N 21.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 17.10.2019 120 20.8N 20.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 17.10.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120356

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 98.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2019 13.5N 98.9W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 114.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2019 14.4N 114.9W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.7N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2019 37.7N 68.9W MODERATE
12UTC 12.10.2019 38.2N 67.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2019 38.5N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2019 39.1N 62.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2019 39.5N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2019 40.1N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2019 40.9N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2019 40.8N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2019 39.7N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.4N 19.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2019 15.1N 20.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.10.2019 15.8N 21.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2019 17.2N 21.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2019 19.1N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 20.8N 20.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120356

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120234
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Although Melissa's convection hasn't been very deep for much of the
day, there has been a slight cooling of cloud tops during the past
few hours. This could possibly be due to the system's center now
moving over the core of the Gulf Stream current, where water
temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. There has also been
sporadic lightning strikes observed within the convection to the
north of the center. Despite this, the latest Hebert-Poteat
subtropical classification from TAFB is ST2.5/35 kt, and a UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate from a few hours ago was 44 kt. Based on these
data, Melissa's winds are lowered to 45 kt.

Melissa is moving a little faster and now toward the southeast, or
125/6 kt. Although Melissa and its parent upper-level low are cut
off from the mid-latitude westerlies, a ridge currently located over
the Appalachian Mountains is expected to flatten on Saturday,
causing westerly flow to become established and force Melissa out
to sea. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate eastward starting on
Saturday and continuing into early next week. No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast on this cycle.

Melissa's journey across the warm Gulf Stream waters will be short
lived, only lasting for about 12 hours, and upper-level westerly
winds will be increasing over the system significantly on Saturday.
Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, with the NHC intensity
forecast more or less mirroring the guidance provided by the GFS
and ECMWF global models. Melissa is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant low is likely
to be absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic by day
4.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend from the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia
eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since
they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast overnight and on Saturday, resulting in a gradual
decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England
coasts on Saturday around times of high tide. For more information,
see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast
offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 37.7N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 37.8N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 38.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 38.5N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 39.0N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 40.4N 50.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

...MELISSA GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND COASTS...
...COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ON SATURDAY AROUND
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 68.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 68.8 West. Melissa
is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward
the east is expected on Saturday, followed by a gradual increase in
forward speed late Saturday through Monday. On the forecast track,
Melissa will gradually move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New
England coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Melissa
is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night or early
Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward over waters up to 275
miles (445 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible across portions of Cape
Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket overnight.

COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New
England coast on Saturday around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120233
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..900NE 240SE 540SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N 58.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.4N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 68.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 112032
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Melissa continues to churn south-southwest of New England. A
late-morning scatterometer overpass indicated that the large wind
field remains in tact with only a slight decrease in maximum winds,
while satellite imagery continues to show banding surrounding the
circulation center. A recent Hebert-Poteat intensity estimate from
TAFB also suggests some slight weakening, and the intensity will be
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

Strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Melissa to weaken over
next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become
post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then
expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

For the past few hours, Melissa has been moving slowly
south-southeastward as the cyclone remains in weak steering flow
under an upper-level trough. Later tonight, an approaching
mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin
to force an eastward motion, with a gradual increase in forward
speed Saturday through Monday. This motion will continue until
the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast
was adjusted a little to the right due to a southward shift in the
guidance and lies on the northern edge of the consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the
central Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are
associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. The expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along
portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to
southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these
hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices at weather.gov.

2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away
from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease
in wind and coastal flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 38.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 38.3N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 38.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 39.2N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 40.7N 52.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THOSE IMPACTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 69.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office at
weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 69.5 West. Melissa
is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the east is forecast tonight followed by an increase in
forward speed on Saturday. This motion will continue through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will move away from the
east coast of the United States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and
Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by
Saturday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the
center, primarily over waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to 50 mph are likely to continue over portions of
Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket through the early
evening.

COASTAL FLOODING: Coastal flooding will continue through the
late evening along portions of the U.S. east coast from the
mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 112031
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT.......300NE 60SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..900NE 240SE 480SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 38.8N 63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.2N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.7N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 111452
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Convection increased near the center of the nor'easter centered
southeast of New England overnight. First-light visible satellite
imagery briefly showed an eye-like feature before the convection
around the immediate center began to weaken. However, a large
convective band still persists over the northern semicircle, and
this structure indicated the system has transitioned to a
subtropical cyclone. The latest Hebert-Poteat classification from
TAFB indicates an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this is also
supported by an earlier scatterometer overpass showing a large area
of winds near 50 kt in the northwest quadrant.

Melissa is currently located underneath an upper-level trough,
resulting in a light shear environment. This trough will begin to
lift northeastward later today, and strong upper-level westerlies
should begin to affect the storm by tonight. This pattern is
expected to cause a weakening trend, and Melissa is forecast to
become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is
then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

Melissa is currently embedded in weak steering flow under the upper-
level trough, and little net motion is expected today. Later
tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing
the upper Midwest will begin to force an east-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed. This motion will continue until
the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast is
closest to the ECMWF ensemble mean.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the
central Atlantic that are not included in the wind radii, since they
are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. While the nor'easter centered southeast of New England has become
Subtropical Storm Melissa, the expected magnitude of wind and
coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from
the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed.
For information on these hazards, see products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov.

2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away
from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease
in wind and coastal flooding impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 38.5N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 38.2N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 39.0N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 13/1200Z 39.9N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/1200Z 41.3N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 111450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

...NOR'EASTER CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BECOMES A
SUBTROPICAL STORM...
...CHANGE IN STORM STATUS DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM WIND
AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 69.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office at
weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 69.6 West. Melissa
is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but
little net motion is expected today. A turn toward the east-
northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast tonight and
this motion will continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa will move away from the east coast of
the United States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days,
and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by
Saturday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the
center, primarily over waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to 50 mph are likely to continue over portions of
Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket through much of today.

COASTAL FLOODING: Coastal flooding will continue today along
portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to
southeastern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 111450
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 69.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
34 KT.......300NE 90SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..900NE 300SE 480SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 69.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 69.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.2N 69.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 60SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 39.0N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.9N 61.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.3N 52.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 69.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>