Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EMA-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 140832
TCDCP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ema Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 PM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

The low-level circulation center of Ema has been exposed since
around 13/1200Z, with only a few brief pulses of convection on the
periphery of the system since that time. The lack of persistent
deep convection in combination with continued strong vertical wind
shear of around 30 kt over the next day or two should continue to
weaken the system. As a result, Ema has been designated a
post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt for this advisory, with the motion set at 345/15 kt.

Ema is being steered toward the north-northwest between a mid-level
low to the west and a large sub-tropical ridge to the east. This
motion is expected to continue tonight, with Ema degenerating into a
trough on Monday. Little change in intensity is forecast through
dissipation.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Ema. Additional information on the post-tropical remnant
low can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO
header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 25.4N 168.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 14/1800Z 27.4N 169.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 140831
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...EMA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 168.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17
MPH (28 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH
THE REMNANT LOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THE
REMNANT LOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON EMA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOHSFNP, WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HFO/HSFNP.

..
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 140830
TCMCP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 168.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 168.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 168.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.4N 169.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 168.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON EMA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

..
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 140246 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EMA SHOWS A LOW CLOUD SPIRAL WITH NO NEARBY
DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE 30 KT FROM HFO AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. SAB FOUND EMA TO BE TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. AN ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT IN
THE EAST QUADRANT OF EMA. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 330/15 KT. EMA
CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY IN
RESPONSE TO A BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINING SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. EMA IS NEAR
THE WEST END OF A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A HIGH NEAR 35N
145W. A HIGH NEAR 40N 180W IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
24 HOURS. EMA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WESTERN
HIGH MOVES INTO POSITION NORTH OF THE LOW.

STRONG SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER EMA.
AS A RESULT, THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT OF EMA AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE LOW DISSIPATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 140246
TCDCP5

Tropical Depression Ema Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

Satellite imagery over Ema shows a low cloud spiral with no nearby
deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 30 kt from HFO and 25 kt from JTWC. SAB found Ema to be too
weak to classify. An ASCAT-C pass showed maximum winds to 30 kt in
the east quadrant of Ema. I have kept the initial intensity for this
advisory at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 330/15 kt. Ema
continued to track northwest around 10 kt for much of the day. The
track has shifted further north over the past few hours, possibly in
response to a brief burst of convection northeast of the center.
With the tropical cyclone remaining shallow, the primary steering
mechanism will be surface high pressure to the north. Ema is near
the west end of a ridge extending southwest from a high near 35N
145W. A high near 40N 180W is forecast to move southeast over the
24 hours. Ema is forecast to turn toward the west as the western
high moves into position north of the low.

Strong southwest vertical wind shear is forecast to remain over Ema.
As a result, the latest forecast continues to show slow weakening of
the system during the next 24 hours. Ema is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by dissipation.
The pressure gradient between the remnant of Ema and the high to
the north will likely maintain an area of 25 kt winds even after
the low dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 28.0N 171.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 29.0N 173.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 140242 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 167.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28
KM/H). THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMA BECOMES
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EMA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 140242
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ema Advisory Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 167.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ema was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 167.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h). The track is forecast to gradually turn toward the west at
about the same forward speed over the next 24 hours as Ema becomes
a post-tropical remnant low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ema is expected to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours as the
system becomes a post-tropical remnant low. The low is forecast to
dissipate within 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are possible tonight and tomorrow for portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Necker Island to
Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema will likely affect the
area from Necker Island to Maro Reef through Monday.

SURF: Elevated seas and swells associated with Ema will likely
affect portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Donaldson


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 140238
TCMCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 167.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 167.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 167.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.4N 168.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.0N 171.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.0N 173.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 167.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON



>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 132115
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR EMA HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT FROM
HFO, AND 35 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB. I HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 30 KT. EMA IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINING SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR NOW IS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 310/10 KT. EMA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAN, EMA IS EXPECT TO TRACK BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AS A NEW HIGH BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG SOUTHWEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER EMA. AS A RESULT, THE
LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 23.0N 167.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 24.0N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.0N 169.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 29.1N 170.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 132101 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 167.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF
HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H).
EMA IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS..

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 132101
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ema Advisory Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 167.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ema was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 167.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).
Ema is forecast to turn to the north over the next 24 hours, then
turn back toward the northwest over the following 24 hours.!

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued slow weakening is forecast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are possible in the watch area later
today and tonight from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema will likely affect
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through early Monday.

SURF: Elevated seas and swells associated with Ema will likely
affect portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
through early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Donaldson


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 132058
TCMCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 167.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 167.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 166.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 168.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.1N 170.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 167.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON



>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131748 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
800 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 166.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.6 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). EMA IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131748
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
800 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 166.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 166.6 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Ema is
forecast to begin moving toward the northwest at a slightly faster
forward speed starting later today or tonight. This motion is
expected to persist until dissipation of the system on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ema is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later
today or tonight, followed by dissipation on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
starting later today or tonight from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema will likely affect
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through early Monday.

SURF: Elevated seas and swells associated with Ema will likely
affect portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
through early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Donaldson


>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 131459 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

THERE WAS A BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT COVERED MOST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF EMA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER
TONIGHT. THE LLCC IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL DEVELOPING MORE THAN 45 N MI NORTH OF THE LLCC. AN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0727Z CONFIRMED THAT THERE WERE STILL 35 KT
WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF EMA. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HFO INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NEAR
35 KT. THEREFORE, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY AT 35 KT.

WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINING SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM IS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS 300/9 KT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS EMA
WILL LIKELY START TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS NORTHWEST MOTION IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EMA REMAINS
NORTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH KEEPS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. AS A RESULT, THE
LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES EMA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 131459
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

There was a brief burst of deep convection that covered most of the
low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Ema for a few hours earlier
tonight. The LLCC is now completely exposed, but a few thunderstorms
are still developing more than 45 n mi north of the LLCC. An earlier
scatterometer pass from 0727Z confirmed that there were still 35 kt
winds in the northeast quadrant of Ema. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and HFO indicate the intensity is near
35 kt. Therefore, we will maintain the initial intensity for this
advisory at 35 kt.

With the tropical cyclone remaining shallow, the primary steering
mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast of the
main Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate for this advisory
is 300/9 kt. Most of the reliable guidance remains in close
agreement on the near-term track forecast. This guidance shows Ema
will likely start to move toward the northwest at a slightly faster
forward speed during the next 12 hours. This northwest motion is
forecast to persist through the next 24 to 36 hours. Ema remains
north of a mid- to upper-level ridge axis, which keeps strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the LLCC. As a result, the
latest forecast continues to show a steady spin-down of the tropical
cyclone during the next 12 to 24 hours. The intensity forecast
indicates Ema may weaken to a tropical depression during the next
12 to 24 hours. After that, it is forecast to weaken to a
post-tropical remnant low within 36 hours, followed by dissipation.

Note that Ema poses no direct threat to the main Hawaiian Islands.
However, since there is still uncertainty in the rate of weakening
and the eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted
for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.2N 166.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 23.7N 167.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.1N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.4N 168.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131447 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 166.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.2 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). EMA IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131447
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 166.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 166.2 West. Ema is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Ema is
forecast to begin moving toward the northwest at a slightly
faster forward speed starting later today or tonight. This motion
is expected to persist until dissipation of the system on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression later today or tonight, followed by dissipation
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
starting later today or tonight from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema will likely affect
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through early Monday.

SURF: Elevated seas and swells associated with Ema will likely
affect portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
through early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 131442
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 166.2W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 166.2W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 167.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.1N 168.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.4N 168.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 166.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131146 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
200 AM HST SUN OCT 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 165.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND EMA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 131146
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
200 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 165.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 165.9 West. Ema is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to
dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
later today or tonight, mainly from near French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema will likely affect
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through tonight.

SURF: Elevated seas and swells associated with Ema will likely
affect portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130851 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF EMA THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
RECENTLY BEEN SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH TOPS OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 50 THOUSAND FEET, THEY HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING SOON AFTER DEVELOPING. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF EMA ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 25 KT. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.

WITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 305/9 KT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE, THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. NOW THAT EMA
HAS MOVED NORTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING
OVER THE CENTER. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
A STEADY SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE, EMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130851
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

Conventional infrared satellite imagery clearly shows the exposed
low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Ema this evening. There has
recently been sporadic deep convection developing in the northwest
quadrant of the system. However, even though tops of these
thunderstorms are estimated to be up to 50 thousand feet, they have
been dissipating soon after developing. The latest estimates of
vertical wind shear in the vicinity of Ema are from the southwest
at about 25 kt. As a result of the continued steady weakening of
the tropical cyclone, the initial intensity estimate for this
advisory has been lowered to 35 kt.

With the cyclone becoming increasingly shallow, the primary
steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast
of the main Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate for this
advisory is 305/9 kt. Most of the reliable guidance remains in close
agreement on the near-term track forecast. Therefore, this general
motion is expected to persist until dissipation occurs. Now that Ema
has moved north of a mid- to upper-level ridge axis, the forecast
guidance shows that even stronger southwesterly vertical wind shear
will likely preclude any significant deep convection from persisting
over the center. As a result, the latest forecast continues to show
a steady spin-down of the tropical cyclone during the next 12 to 24
hours. The latest forecast for track and intensity closely follows
the previous advisory. Therefore, Ema is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by dissipation.

Note that Ema poses no direct threat to the main Hawaiian Islands.
However, since there is still uncertainty in the rate of weakening
and the eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted
for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.2N 165.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 23.5N 166.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 25.7N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130849 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 165.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.4 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND EMA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 130850
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 165.4W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 165.4W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 165.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 166.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.7N 168.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 165.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130849
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 165.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 165.4 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to dissipate by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Sunday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 130835
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 165.4W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 165.4W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 165.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 166.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.7N 168.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 165.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130543 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
800 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...EMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 164.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.9 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND EMA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130543
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
800 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...EMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...EMA IS NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 164.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 164.9 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to
dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Sunday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130304 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OF EMA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS NOW BEEN
SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
NEAR 25 KT. LATEST GOES-17 HIGH-RESOLUTION 1-MINUTE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LLCC ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL CENTER. AN
ASCAT-C PASS AROUND 2100Z VALIDATED THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY USED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND WAS ALSO USED TO FINE TUNE WIND RADII
FOR THIS FORECAST. GIVEN THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.

WITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 310/10 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. WITH EMA NOW
NORTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER, AND A STEADY SPIN-DOWN
IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, EMA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL PATH OF EMA, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130304 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 164.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.5 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND EMA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130304
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

The deep convection that had been over the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) of Ema overnight and this morning has now been
shunted to the northeast, due to southwesterly vertical wind shear
near 25 kt. Latest GOES-17 high-resolution 1-minute imagery reveals
an increasingly exposed LLCC about 150 miles southwest of the
convection associated with a well developed mid-level center. An
ASCAT-C pass around 2100Z validated the 45 kt initial intensity used
in the previous advisory, and was also used to fine tune wind radii
for this forecast. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate
for this advisory has been lowered to 40 kt.

With the cyclone becoming increasingly shallow, the primary
steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast,
and the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 310/10 kt. This
general motion is expected until dissipation occurs. With Ema now
north of a mid- and upper-level ridge axis, continued strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely preclude significant
convection from persisting over the center, and a steady spin-down
is expected. Given this forecast philosophy, Ema is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The updated track and intensity
forecasts are supported by most of the reliable dynamical models.

Given uncertainties associated with the rate of weakening and
eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.7N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.7N 165.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.6N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130304
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 164.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 164.5 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to dissipate by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Sunday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130255 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OF EMA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS NOW BEEN
SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
NEAR 25 KT. LATEST GOES-17 HIGH-RESOLUTION 1-MINUTE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LLCC ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL CENTER. AN
ASCAT-C PASS AROUND 2100Z VALIDATED THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY USED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND WAS ALSO USED TO FINE TUNE WIND RADII
FOR THIS FORECAST. GIVEN THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.

WITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 310/10 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. WITH EMA NOW
NORTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER, AND A STEADY SPIN-DOWN
IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, EMA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL PATH OF EMA, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 130255
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

The deep convection that had been over the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) of Ema overnight and this morning has now been
shunted to the northeast, due to southwesterly vertical wind shear
near 25 kt. Latest GOES-17 high-resolution 1-minute imagery reveals
an increasingly exposed LLCC about 150 miles southwest of the
convection associated with a well developed mid-level center. An
ASCAT-C pass around 2100Z validated the 45 kt initial intensity used
in the previous advisory, and was also used to fine tune wind radii
for this forecast. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate
for this advisory has been lowered to 40 kt.

With the cyclone becoming increasingly shallow, the primary
steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast,
and the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 310/10 kt. This
general motion is expected until dissipation occurs. With Ema now
north of a mid- and upper-level ridge axis, continued strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely preclude significant
convection from persisting over the center, and a steady spin-down
is expected. Given this forecast philosophy, Ema is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The updated track and intensity
forecasts are supported by most of the reliable dynamical models.

Given uncertainties associated with the rate of weakening and
eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.7N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.7N 165.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.6N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130242 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 164.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.5 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND EMA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 130242
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMA PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NECKER
ISLAND...
...NO THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 164.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 164.5 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Ema is expected to dissipate by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Sunday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 130236
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 164.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 164.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 164.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 165.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 167.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 164.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 122349 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
200 PM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA APPROACHING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 164.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.1 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (70 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
EMA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 122349
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
200 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA APPROACHING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 164.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 164.1 West. Ema is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, with little change in forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Ema is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef tonight through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight through Sunday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 122059 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES
INDICATING AN IMPROVED STRUCTURE - MOST NOTABLY THE 1436Z AND 1721Z
SSMI PASSES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE WIDE-RANGING,
FROM 2.0/30 KT TO 3.5/55 KT, WHILE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7/39 KT.
WITH A NOD TO THE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/11 KT. THE
INCREASED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (PROVIDED BY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, RESPECTIVELY) HAVE GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE
SHORT-TERM TRACK. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
PRESENTED EARLIER, WITH EMA MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH OF
THESE RIDGES, AND A SHARP TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO ITS WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE THAT WILL RESULT IN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES SHALLOW, AND INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS IN 48
HOURS AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 122059
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 AM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

A ball of deep convection has persisted over the center of the
tropical storm through the morning, with several microwave passes
indicating an improved structure - most notably the 1436Z and 1721Z
SSMI passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are wide-ranging,
from 2.0/30 kt to 3.5/55 kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS is 2.7/39 kt.
With a nod to the microwave passes indicating an eye-like feature,
the initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been increased
to 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 350/11 kt. The
increased vertical depth of the cyclone has allowed the south to
southwest flow aloft (provided by mid- and upper-level ridges to
the northeast and east, respectively) have greater influence on the
short-term track. There is little change to the forecast philosophy
presented earlier, with Ema moving into an area of increasing
southwesterly wind shear after about 24 hours as it moves north of
these ridges, and a sharp trough aloft deepens to its west. This
will lead to weakening of the cyclone that will result in a turn
toward the northwest as it becomes shallow, and increasingly steered
by a surface high centered well to the northeast. The system is
still expected to dissipate over increasingly cooler waters in 48
hours as the vertical wind shear persists. The updated track
forecast is close to the previous, and closely follows the reliable
dynamical guidance.

The forecast requires a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.1N 163.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 22.0N 165.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 23.3N 167.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 25.6N 169.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 122040 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA APPROACHING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 163.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.9 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND EMA

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 122040
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
1100 AM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA APPROACHING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 163.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 163.9 West. Ema is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, with little change in forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ema
is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Sunday, mainly from Necker Island to French Frigate Shoals to
Gardner Pinnacles.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef tonight through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated swells associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight through Sunday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 122036 RRA
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 163.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 163.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 163.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 165.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.3N 167.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.6N 169.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 163.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/0000Z

>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 122036
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 163.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 163.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 163.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 165.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.3N 167.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.6N 169.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 163.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 PHFO/HFOTCPCP5...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 121456 RRA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 AM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII HAD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. A 0826Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS AND A SINGLE 35 KNOT WIND BARB.
BASED ON THIS DATA AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE ASCAT
DATA, AND THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE SET AT 325/10 KNOTS.

EMA WILL BE ENTERING AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOST CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EMA IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR (WHICH SEEMS TO BE ALREADY AFFECTING
EMA OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS), SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS EMA INTO
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 121456
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 AM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicated that the area of low
pressure far southwest of Hawaii had become better organized
overnight. A 0826Z ASCAT pass showed a closed circulation along
with a broad area of 30 knot winds and a single 35 knot wind barb.
Based on this data and persistent deep convection over the
low-level circulation center through much of the night, advisories
have been initiated on newly formed Tropical Storm Ema. The initial
intensity will be set at 35 knots, which is in line with the ASCAT
data, and the initial motion will be set at 325/10 knots.

Ema will be entering an increasingly unfavorable environment over
the next couple days, with increasing west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear and dry mid-level air. This should result in a more
shallow system driven by the low-level boundary layer flow. The
official forecast track is most closely in line with the ECMWF
solution which seems to have the best handle on the initial
intensity and motion of the tropical cyclone. Ema is expected to
track off to the northwest over the next couple days, and dissipate
Sunday night.

Although sea surface temperatures along the forecast track will
remain conducive for intensification, the increasing vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level air (which seems to be already affecting
Ema over the past couple hours), should result in little change in
strength today and tonight. The official forecast weakens Ema into
a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday, with dissipation expected
Sunday night. The intensity forecast is slightly below the guidance
envelope through dissipation.

Although Tropical Storm force winds are not expected to affect the
northwest Hawaiian Islands, interests in the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument should continue to monitor the progress of
Ema.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.0N 163.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 21.3N 164.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.6N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 167.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 121454 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
500 AM HST SAT OCT 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 163.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SW OF NIHOA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.5 WEST. EMA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH EMA
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY, AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH EMA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 121454
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM EMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 163.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 163.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 163.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.3N 164.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N 166.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 167.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 163.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 121454
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ema Advisory Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 AM HST Sat Oct 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM EMA FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 163.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SW OF NIHOA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Ema.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ema was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 163.5 West. Ema is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight, with Ema
expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday, and
dissipate Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Ema may affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef tonight through Sunday night.

SURF: Elevated surf associated with Ema may affect portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef tonight through Sunday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>