Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GABEKILE-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 75.3E.
18FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
852 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. AN
181238Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 180405Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. TC 16S IS

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 75.3E.
18FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
852 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. AN
181238Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 180405Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER STRONG
(35-45 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.9S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.9S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.1S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E.
18FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
827 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A 180005Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
NOTCH FEATURE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES
SUPPORTED BY A 171629Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTING A REGION OF
30-34 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THESE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CREATE AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, TC 16S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, LOCATED IN A COL
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WEST. AS
THE STR PATTERN SHIFTS, TC 16S WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THE NEAR-TERM, WARM SST AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE HIGH VWS AND SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER (LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS) SST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. WITHIN THE COL, THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSIT
SOUTHWEST, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, PLACING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180029 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180029 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A PEU CHANGE DURANT LA NUIT: LE
VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE AU NORD ET AU
NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION ORAGEUSE QUI RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET PEU
ETENDUE. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ABAISSEE A 30 KT PAR EXTRAPOLATION
DES DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES DE LA NUIT DERNIERE.

LE SYSTEME S'EST DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD CETTE
NUIT SELON LES DERNIERS FIX MICRO-ONDES FIABLES. UN DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST OU LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE EN JOURNEE SUIVI,
DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, D'UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD EN
DIRECTION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA CEINTURE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS DE
BASSES COUCHES GENEREE PAR UNE PUISSANTE DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC L'ARRIVA E D'UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE
ANTICYCLONIQUE DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME, GABEKILE, EN COURS DE
COMBLEMENT, DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST. LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC
CE SCENARIO.

L'AIR SEC ET LE CISAILLEMENT ONT EU RAISON DE GABEKILE. MERCREDI,
LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD, LE SCENARIO D'UNE INTERACTION
BAROCLINE EN ENTREE DE JET DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE RETROUVE
MAINTENANT SUR PLUSIEURS MODELES (GFS, IFS, HWRF). LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT REDEVELOPPER DU COUP DE VENT AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE POST-TROPICALE (COEUR CHAUD PEU EPAIS ET ASYMETRIQUE).

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT: THE LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF SOME INTERMITTENT BURST OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN EXTRAPOLATION OF SOME PREVIOUS
SCATT DATA.

BASED ON LATEST RELIABLE MW FIX, THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWARDS DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. A WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION
SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARDS TURN TUESDAY NIGHT
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES DRIVEN BY
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVELS MID-LAT TROUGH FORCING. FROM THURSDAY, WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CELL IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
GABEKILE AS IT FILLS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE WESTWARD. THE MODELS
ARE NOW RATHER IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAD TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GABEKILE. WEDNESDAY THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND THE
CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING IS PRESENT
AMONGST SEVERAL RELIABLE GUIDANCE (IFS, GFS, HWRF). BY THAT TIME THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITH AN ASYMMETRIC AND
SHALLOW WARM CORE.

LAST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180016
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/02/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 9 (GABEKILE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2020/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
21.5 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171821 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 350 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171821 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 350 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A PEU CHANGE DEPUIS LA FIN DE
JOURNEE: SOUS L'EFFET DE L'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A
QUASIMENT DISPARU DE LA CIRCULATION AVEC UN CENTRE COMPLETEMENT
EXPOSE. SEULES QUELQUES BOUFFA ES DE CONVECTION PERSISTENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST. LA PASS COMPLETE DE HY-2B VERS 1330Z ET LA PASS
TRES PARTIELLE ASCAT-B DE 1628Z NE MONTRENT PLUS QUE DES VENTS A 30
KT AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST REDUITE A 35 KT
SUPPOSE ENCORE PRESENT PRES DU CENTRE MAIS UNIQUEMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE JOURNEE ONT PERMIS DE
RELOCALISER LE CENTRE PLUS A L'EST QUE PRECEDEMMENT ESTIME. LE
SYSTEME A EN FAIT EFFECTUE UNE DERIVE LENTE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
JOURNEE ET EST MAINTENANT ESTIMER ETRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A NOUVEAU.
UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST OU LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN SUIVI, DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI,
D'UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD EN DIRECTION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
CEINTURE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS DE BASSES COUCHES GENEREE PAR UNE
PUISSANTE DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC L'ARRIVA E
D'UNE NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME,
GABEKILE EN COURS DE COMBLEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT RELATIVEMENT EN
ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO.

L'AIR SEC ET LE CISAILLEMENT SONT EN TRAIN D'AVOIR RAISON DE GABEKILE
QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 6H.
MERCREDI, LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD, LE SCENARIO D'UNE
INTERACTION BAROCLINE EN ENTREE DE JET DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE
RETROUVE MAINTENANT SUR PLUSIEURS MODELES (GFS, IFS, HWRF). LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT REDEVELOPPER DU COUP DE VENT AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE POST-TROPICALE (COEUR CHAUD PEU EPAIS ET ASYMETRIQUE).

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY:
UNDER THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED
FROM THE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. ONLY A FEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. COMPLETE HY-2B SCATT
PASS NEAR 1330Z AND PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA AT 1628Z SHOW ONLY 30 KT
WINDS WITHIN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 35 KT WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO EXIST CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND
ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

MW DATA OF THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE CENTER MORE TO
THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. IN FACT, THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
EASTWARDS TODAY AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE QUASI-STAT AGAIN CURRENTLY. A
WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION SHOULD RESUME TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY
A SOUTHWARDS TURN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVELS MID-LAT TROUGH
FORCING. FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CELL
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GABEKILE AS IT FILLS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
CURVE WESTWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOW RATHER IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAD TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GABEKILE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON. WEDNESDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND THE CLOCKWISE LOW
LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING IS PRESENT AMONGST SEVERAL
RELIABLE GUIDANCE (IFS, GFS, HWRF). BY THAT TIME THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITH AN ASYMMETRIC AND SHALLOW WARM
CORE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED TERRITORIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
20.5 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
21.0 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.8S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.8S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.9S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.6S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.3E.
17FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
810 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOT (KT) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS MOSTLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 171116Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. STRONG (OVER 25 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM A NEARBY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ARE
OVERCOMING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TC 16S IS
QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO BEING LOCATED IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, CHANGES
IN THE STR PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171206 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171206 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171206
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
SOUS L'EFFET DE L'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A QUASIMENT DISPARU
DE LA CIRCULATION AVEC UN CENTRE COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE. SEULES QUELQUES
BOUFFA ES DE CONVECTION AVEC DES SOMMETS RELATIVEMENT CHAUD
PERSISTENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

LE SYSTEME A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS L'OUEST. DANS LA NUIT DE
MARDI A MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PLONGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
DIRECTION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA CEINTURE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS DE
BASSES COUCHES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC L'ARRIVA E D'UNE NOUVELLE
CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME, GABEKILE EN COURS DE
COMBLEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST.
LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO.

AUJOURD'HUI EN MARGE DU JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTA ME CONNAIT UNE
BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL. MAIS, A PARTIR DE CETTE
NUIT, LA CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE RENFORCER EN RAISON D'UNE
ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICAL A L'OUEST IMMA DIAT DU SYSTEME FORCA E
PAR UNE ANOMALIE DYNAMIQUE DE TROPOPAUSE. LE SCENARIO PRIVILA GIA
POUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA
CIRCULATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS EN RAISON DU FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ET DE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC.
NOTONS QUE LE MODA LE EUROPA EN MONTRE LA POSSIBILITA D'UNE
INTERACTION ENTRE LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET L'ANOMALIE CYCLONIQUE DE
BASSES COUCHES AVEC UN CREUSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DE LA CIRCULATION AU
COURS DE LA JOURNA E DE MERCREDI. CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS SUIVI DANS
CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITA .

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171206
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED
FROM THE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. ONLY A FEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITH RELATIVELY WARM TOPS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AGAIN SLOWLY WESTWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONIC
CELL IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GABEKILE AS IT FILLS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND CURVE WESTWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOW RELATIVELY AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

TODAY IN THE MARGINS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A
TEMPORARY DROP IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT FROM THIS NIGHT THE
CONSTRAINT SHOULD QUICKLY BE REINFORCED DUE TO UNDULATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FORCED BY A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ANOMALY. THE PREFERRED
SCENARIO FOR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT DAYS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN
MODEL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ALTITUDE
TROUGH AND THE CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING
DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED IN THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.2 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170644 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170644 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTA ME CONTINUE DE SE DA GRADER AVEC
MAINTENANT UNE CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSA E ET UNE CONVECTION
UNIQUEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION.

COMME PRA VU LE SYSTEME A RALENTI ET SEMBLE OPA RER UNE BOUCLE. LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES DA TERMINISTES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD SUR UN
DEPLACEMENT LENT ORIENTE VERS LE NORD-OUEST AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION
DE COL DURABLE ET AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI VA MIGRER VERS LES
BASSES COUCHES.

AUJOURD'HUI EN MARGE DU JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT
CONNAITRE UNE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL. MAIS, A
PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT, LA CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE RENFORCER
EN RAISON D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICAL FORCA E PAR UNE
ANOMALIE DYNAMIQUE DE TROPOPAUSE. LE SCENARIO PRIVILA GIA POUR LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA
CIRCULATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS EN RAISON DU FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. NOTONS QUE LE MODA LE EUROPA EN
MONTRE LA POSSIBILITA D'UNE INTERACTION ENTRE LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ET L'ANOMALIE CYCLONIQUE DE BASSES COUCHES AVEC UN CREUSEMENT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA CIRCULATION AU COURS DE LA JOURNA E DE MERCREDI. CE
SCENARIO N'EST PAS SUIVI DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITA .

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEGRADE WITH NOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION AND A CONVECTION ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.

AS EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND SEEMS TO OPERATE A LOOP.
IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A SLOW MOTION WITH PROBABLY A NORTH-WESTERWARD TREND WITHIN THE
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A SOUTHWARDS OR
SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW LEVELS STEERING
FLOW.

TODAY IN THE MARGINS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A TEMPORARY DROP IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT FROM THIS
NIGHT THE CONSTRAINT SHOULD QUICKLY BE REINFORCED DUE TO UNDULATION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET FORCED BY A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ANOMALY. THE
PREFERRED SCENARIO FOR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A REGULAR WEAKENING
OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT DAYS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ALTITUDE TROUGH AND THE
CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170608
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.7S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.2S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.2E.
17FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
809 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SLIGHT
UNRAVELING OF THE RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
IMAGES WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES THAT INDICATE A TIGHT
LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM
HAS REACHED THE COL BETWEEN THE STEERING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LAYERED (700MB DOWN) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST
TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE NER AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TC 16S. ALTHOUGH SST VALUES REMAIN WARM
AT 28-29C AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT
AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS OVERALL CAUSING
CONVECTIVE DECAY RESULTING IN THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36, TC 16S
WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
OUT OF THE COL, DRIVEN BY THE STR. COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS
WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD TO OVER 300NM AT TAU 72,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170021 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170021 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GABEKILE S'EST NETTEMENT DETERIORE AU
COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS L'IMPACT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ANALYSE AUTOUR DE 30KT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
D'APRES LE CIMSS. L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 2244Z CONFIRME QUE LE CENTRE SE
TROUVE BIEN AU NORD DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD A CESSE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, ET
LE CENTRE S'EST PEU DEPLACE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES
SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD SUR UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ORIENTE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL DURABLE ET AVEC UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR QUI VA MIGRER VERS LES BASSES COUCHES.

L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIE AU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST VONT CONTINUER D'ACCELERER LA TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT COMME LE SUGGERE L'ENSEMBLE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
FIABLES. LE VORTEX DE SURFACE POURRAIT SE TROUVER APPARENT EN
JOURNEE.

EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT AU
VU DE DEUX SCENARIOS PROPOSES PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES. DANS UN CAS
(GFS18Z, QUELQUES MEMBRES DE L'EPS), LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL CONTINUERAIT
SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST EN DISPARAISSANT. DANS LE SECOND CAS ENCORE
SUPPORTE PAR LES DERNIERS D'IFS ET DES MEMBRES DE SON ENSEMBLE, LE
RESTES DE GABELIKE SERAIENT ABSORBES AU SEIN D'UN THALWEG DE SURFACE
FORCE PAR UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVANT DE CONNAITRE UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION POTENTIELLEMENT DE NATURE TROPICALE OU SUBTROPICALE
SOUS LE THALWEG. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET LES DERNIERES PREVISIONS
NE SUGGERENT PAS UNE REINTENSIFICAITION AU DELA DU STADE DE TEMPETE.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION RESTE UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DEUX SCENARIOS (A
LA FOIS EN TRACK ET INTENSITE)

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN STRONGLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
UNDERGOING SEVERE NORTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR (AROUND 30KT IN
MID SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMSS). 2244Z SSMIS CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER
IS NORTH OF THE CDO.

THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION STOPPED IN THE LATE HOURS, AND THE CENTER SINCE
BARELY MOVED. IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A SLOW MOTION WITH PROBABLY A NORTH-WESTERWARD TREDN
WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A
SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.

DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
LIKELY ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEXT HOURS AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX COULD BECOME
APPARENT TODAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
TWO SCENARIOS AMONG BY THE GUIDANCE. IN ON CASE (GFS 18Z, SOME EPS
MEMBERS), THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE
DISAPPEARING. IN THE OTHER ONE (IFS AND SEVERAL OF THE MEMBER OF THE
EPS) GABEKILE COULD BE INCORPORATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AT SOUTH, AND THEN START A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL PROCESSES UNDER THE TROUGH.DUE TO
THE ALCK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND THE LAST TREND IN THE GUIDANCES,
WINDS IN THIS SCENARIO SHOULD NOT EXCEED GALE FORCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL AN INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO (AS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST)

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170013
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161835 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161835 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161835
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GABEKILE A BEAUCOUP EVOLUE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC L'APPARITION DURANT QUELQUES HEURES D'UN OEIL
EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE. NEANMOINS DEPUIS 17Z, CETTE STRUCTURE A
DISPARU AU PROFIT D'UNE PUISSANTE BANDE CONVECTIVE (SOMMETS AUTOUR DE
-86C) DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. CETTE DERNIERE EVOLUTION SEMBLE
CONCORDANTE AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA
SSMIS DE 1327Z MONTRE UN DEGRADATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA CONTRAINTE. PARMI LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES, UNE PASSE SMAP PARTIELLE A 1256Z
DONNAIT 68KT POUR VALEUR MAXIMALE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 60KT MAIS IL N'EST PAS IMPOSSIBLE QUE L'INTENSITE REELLE
SOIT A 65KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD A CONTINUE DE RALENTIR AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC UN POSSIBLE DEBUT DE REMONTEE VERS LE NORD SUR
LES DERNIERES IMAGES. DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES DETERMINISTES SONT MAINTENANT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD SUR UN
DEPLACEMENT LENT ORIENTE VERS LE NORD-OUEST AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION
DE COL DURABLE ET AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI VA MIGRER VERS LES
BASSES COUCHES.

L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIE AU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, A COMMENCE A AFFECTER LE
SYSTEME. LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DEMAIN
COMME LE SUGGERE L'ENSEMBLE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES FIABLES.

EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT AU
VU DE DEUX SCENARIOS PROPOSES PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES. DANS UN CAS
(GFS12Z, PLUSIEURS MEMBRES DE L'EPS), LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL
CONTINUERAIT SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST EN DISPARAISSANT LENTEMENT. DANS
LE SECOND CAS ENCORE SUPPORTE PAR LES RUNS D'IFS ET DES MEMBRES DE
SON ENSEMBLE, LE RESTES DE GABELIKE SERAIT ABSORBE AU SEIN D'UN
THALWEG DE SURFACE FORCE PAR LE THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVANT DE CONNAITRE
UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION POTENTIELLEMENT DE NATURE TROPICALE OU
SUBTROPICALE SOUS LE THALWEG. EN L'ABSENCE D'UN REEL CHOIX DE
SCENARIO POUR L'INSTANT, LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UNE PROPOSITION
INTERMEDIAIRE ENTRE CES DEUX SCENARIOS.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED FREQUENTLY DURING THE LAST HOURS, WITH THE
SHORT APPARITION OF AN EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER SINCE
17Z, THIS STRUCTURE DISAPPEARED, REPLACED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT (SUMMITS AROUND -86C). THIS LAST CHANGE
SEEMES RELATED TO THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. 1327Z SSMIS SHOW A DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE. AMONG LAST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATION, A PARTIAL SMAP GAVE 68KT AT 1256Z. IN
THIS CONTEXT, INTENSITY IS HELD TO 60KT EVEN IF IT IS POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER.

THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH A POSSIBLE COME
BACK NORTHWARD ON THE LAST IMAGES. IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW MOTION PROBABLY
NORTH-WESTERWARD WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A
RESUME OF A SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN
A LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOW.

DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-SHEAR INCREASE HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEXT HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RELIABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
TWO SCENARIOS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE. IN ON CASE (GFS 12Z, SEVERAL
EPS MEMBERS), THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE
DISAPPEARING. IN THE OTHER ONE (IFS AND SEVERAL OF THE MEMBER OF THE
EPS) GABEKILE COULD BE INCORPORATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AT SOUTH, AND THEN START A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL PROCESSES UNDER THE TROUGH. LACKING
A REAL CHOICE OF SCENARIO THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A INTERMEDIATE
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161822
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 75.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 75.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.8S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 75.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 75.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.8S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.3S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.2S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.0E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
799 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN A 161141Z GMI
COLORIZED 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL 75 KT INTENSITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS
EVIDENCED BY MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES RANGING
FROM AROUND T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT AROUND 20 KTS BUT WITH MUCH STRONGER
VWS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). ALSO, THERE IS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT MAY BE BEGINNING TO IMPACT
THE SYSTEM, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI SUGGESTS VWS MAY BE INCREASING
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THOSE TWO STEERING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH
ANOTHER STR SITUATED BEHIND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY COMPLEX. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND 16S SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY UNTIL
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE
COAMPS-TC WITH GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS BECAUSE THE TRACK FROM THAT
INTENSITY MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREDICTED STORM TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND,
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161229 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161229 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161229
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GABEKILE S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE CET
APRES-MIDI AVEC UN OEIL (POINT CHAUD) QUI A DISPARU EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE (IR). L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE MONTRE QUE LE COEUR INTERNE EST
ENCORE BIEN CONSTITUE MALGRE UNE EROSION DE LA PARTIE OUEST. LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES SONT A 65-80 KT ET LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
SONT SENSIBLEMENT MOINS FORTES A 50-60 KT. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST
ESTIMEE A 60 KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR AU COURS DE LA
NUIT PROCHAINE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE SITUATION DE COL. A PARTIR
DE DEMAIN, LES DEUX PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES SONT MAINTENANT
GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD SUR UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A QUASI-STAIONNAIRE
(DERIVE NORD A NORD-OUEST POSSIBLE) AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL
DURABLE ET AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI VA MIGRER VERS LES BASSES
COUCHES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST OU LE SUD DANS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
RESTANT PLUTOT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES.

L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIE AU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, A COMMENCE A AFFECTER LE
SYSTEME. UNE TENDANCE D'ABORD LENTE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST EN COURS
MAIS DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DEMAIN COMME LE SUGGERE L'ENSEMBLE DES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES FIABLES D'INTENSITE. AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT
MAINTENANT PREVU OMNI-PRESENT ET UNE PRESENCE DURABLE D'AIR SEC A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS PARAIT AVOIR PEU DE CHANCE
DE SE PRODUIRE. ON NOTERA QUE LE MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN PROPOSE
QUE LE SYSTEME CONNAISSE UNE BAISSE SIGNIFICATIVE DE CISAILLEMENT
MERCREDI OU JEUDI ALORS QU'IL POURRAIT EVOLUER SOUS UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. POUR L'INSTANT CETTE HYPOTHESE NE FAIT PAS L'UNANIMITE
DANS LES GUIDANCES ET N'EST PAS RETENUE DANS LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EYE
(WARM SPOT) IS NO MORE PRESENT ON VISIBLE (IR) IMAGERY. MW DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE INNER-CORE IS STILL WELL DEFINED ALTHOUGH A WEAKNESS
STILL EXIST WITHIN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 65 TO 80 KT AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 KT. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO STOP TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL. TOMORROW, THE TWO
MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW TO ALMOST
STATIONARY MOTION WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION (A NORTHWARDS
OR NORTHWESTWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE), FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A
SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.

DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-SHEAR INCREASE HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. FIRST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWED BY A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING TREND TOMORROW AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE. AS SHEAR AND MID LEVELS DRY AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH, THERE IS ONLY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGEST
THAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY BENEFIT FROM A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE WITHIN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161212
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160639 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.5- CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160639 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.5- CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.5- CI=4.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GABEKILE A ETE PLUTOT STABLE DEPUIS LA
FIN DE NUIT MEME SI LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES MONTRE PAR CONTRE QUE LE PETIT OEIL SUBIT DES
FLUCTUATIONS AVEC UNE TENDANCE A L'EROSION DANS LA PARTIE OUEST. UNE
PASS SMAP VERS 01Z CE MATIN DONNE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 70 KT.
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 65 KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE LA
TENDANCE DES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES. ELLE EST COMPLETEMENT EN
PHASE AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON DE 0418Z.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: LE DEPLACEMENT SE
FAIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SUR LA FACADE OUEST DE LA DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET A L'AVANT D'UNE PROFONDE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD VERS 70E. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE ET DEVIENT
LIEE A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. A CETTE ECHEANCE, LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE RESTE IMPORTANTE, BIEN QUE LES DEUX PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES SONT MAINTENANT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD SUR LE
DEPLACEMENT, UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A QUASI-STAIONNAIRE (DERIVE NORD A
NORD-OUEST POSSIBLE) LUNDI, PUIS SUD A SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI.

SI LES CONDITIONS EN HAUTE TROPOSPHERE RESTENT FAVORABLES, LES
ANALYSES DU CIMSS DETECTENT BIEN UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
DE MOYENNE TROPO A 20-30 KT. CETTE CONTRAINTE EST ASSOCIEE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTAL PLUS SEC PAR LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT PLAFONNER ALORS QUE SON
DEVELOPPEMENT EST GENE PAR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC INTERMITTENTES.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RENCONTRER A NOUVEAU DES CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. L'IMPACT DE CES
CONDITIONS TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAVORABLE SUR L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT
DETERMINER LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPO A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE DE
RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, A
L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR
LE SYSTEME.


CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.5- CI=4.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER MW IMAGERY REVEAL
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EYE PATTERN WITH A LIKELY EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EYEWALL. A SMAP PASS THIS MORNING NEAR 01Z SHOW NEAR 70 KT
WINDS. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO 65 KT BASED ON MW
IMAGERY AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH A SATCON ESTIMATES AT 0418Z.

NO MAJOR CHANGESIN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY: THE FORWARD MOTION
IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM MONDAY THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS
LARGE, EVEN IF THE TWO MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING
GLOBALLY IN AGREEMENT, FORECASTING A TRACK SLOW TO ALMOST STATIONARY
MONDAY (A NORTHWARDS OR NORTHWESTWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE), THEN A SOUTH
TO SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM TUESDAY

DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT MID-SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE
CIMSS REVEAL 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IMPEDING THE SYSTEM. THIS
MID-SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS.
MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF
THE SHEAR. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE TRACK FORECAST.
CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT ABOUNDANCE OF DRY MID-LEVELS AIR WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN
UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250-300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 74.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 74.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.0S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 74.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 74.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.0S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.9S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.2S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.8S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 74.6E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
689 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12HRS. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE COMPACT
AND A FORMATIVE EYE HAS APPEARED ON AND OFF WHILE MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INTERMITTENT EYE IN THE EIR
LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 152221Z
GPM COLORIZED 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW 5-10KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM 29C
ALONG-TRACK SST. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE EAST. TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AND SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE STR RECEDES AND WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
UP TO TAU 48. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASING
VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A
BUILDING STR TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 120, TC GABEKILE WILL DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCESSIVELY WIDE DISAGREEMENT, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160043 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160043 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2020 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 21/02/2020 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN
CDO QUI S'AGRANDI AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI RESTENT TRES FROID, AU
SEIN DUQUEL UN OEIL DE TRES PETITE TAILLE APARAIT TEMPORAIREMENT EN
CONSERVANT UNE TEMPERATURE FROIDE.

LE DEPLACEMENT SE FAIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SUR LA FACADE
OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET A
L'AVANT D'UNE PROFONDE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD
VERS 70E. A PARTIR DE LUNDI LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES
INCERTAINE ET DEVIENT LIEE A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. A CETTE
ECHEANCE, LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE RESTE IMPORTANTE, BIEN QUE LES
DEUX PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES SONT MAINTENANT GLOBALEMENT EN
ACCORD SUR LE DEPLACEMENT, UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A QUASI-STAIONNAIRE
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, PUIS SUD SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES ONT PERMIS LA POURSUITE
DU RENFORCEMENT DU SYSTEME AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
COTE POLAIRE. CE QUI A PERMIS AU SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TRAOPICALE. CEPENDANT, EN DEBUT DE JOURNA E, UNE CONTRAINTE
DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT APPARAITRE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTAL PLUS SEC. AINSI,
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT PLAFONNER ALORS QUE SON DEVELOPPEMENT
EST GENE PAR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC INTERMITTENTES.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RENCONTRER A NOUVEAU DES CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. L'IMPACT DE CES
CONDITIONS TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAVORABLE SUR L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT
DETERMINER LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE
SUR UNE PAUSE TEMPORAIRE DANS LE PROCESSUS D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, A L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.


CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN ENLARGING CDO
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING VERY COLD, WITHIN WHICH A VERY
SMALL EYE TEMPORARILY APPEARS KEEPING A COOL TEMPERATURE. ARD


THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE, EVEN IF THE TWO MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
NOW FORECASTING GLOBALLY IN AGREEMENT, FORECASTING A TRACK SLOW TO
QUITE STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN SOUTH SOUTH-WESTWARDS
TRACK FROM TUESDAY

CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT, WITH
STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO REACH THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (HURRICANE) STRENGTH . HOWEVER ON SUNDAY
MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT
COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS,
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS
DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS.
MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF
THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING
TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY
NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A
STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160035
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151816 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151816 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151816
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN
CDO AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FROID, AU SEIN DUQUEL
APARAIT UN POINT CHAUD. LA PASS SSMI DE 1043Z MONTRE QU'UN OEIL S'EST
CONSTITUE DANS LES COUCHES MOYENNES, ET LA PASSE ASCATAL DE 17H
COMFIRME LA PRESENTE DE 50KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT SE FAIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SUR LA FACADE
OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET A
L'AVANT D'UNE PROFONDE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD
VERS 70E. A PARTIR DE LUNDI LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES
INCERTAINE ET DEVIENT LIEE A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. A CETTE
ECHEANCE, LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE DEVIENT IMPORTANTE ALORS QUE
CERTAINS MEMBRES ET D'AUTRES MODELES DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS
UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE A L'EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT
DU SYSTEME AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE.
CEPENDANT, EN DEBUT DE JOURNA E, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST A
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT APPARAITRE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIEE A DE
L'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTAL PLUS SEC. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT PLAFONNER ALORS QUE SON DEVELOPPEMENT EST GENE PAR DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC INTERMITTENTES. COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION
RECENTE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS ETRE A LA LIMITE DU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RENCONTRER A NOUVEAU DES
CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. L'IMPACT
DE CES CONDITIONS TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAVORABLE SUR L'INTENSITE
DEVRAIT DETERMINER LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION
TABLE SUR UNE PAUSE TEMPORAIRE DANS LE PROCESSUS D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, A L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.


CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151816
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVEWITH A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH
CLOUD TOPS BECOMING COLDER AND COLDER, WITHIN WHICH A WARM SPOT IS
VISIBLE. THE SSMI PASS AT 1043Z REVEAL THAT AN EYE PATTERN IS
BUILDING AT THE MID-LEVELS. THE LAST ASCATAL DATA CONFIRM WIND OF
LESS 50KT.


THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER BEFORE
SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL
AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(HURRICANE) STRENGTH BY THAT TIME. MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE
TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.7S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 74.1E.
15FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
607 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN APPROXIMATE 100 NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING. TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN A 151143Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (45 KTS).
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A SECOND STR,
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT MAKE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSIFY FORECAST QUITE HIGH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD. SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK WITH A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT (GALWEM, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) WHILE THE OTHERS HAVE A
WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACKERS WITH
A WESTWARD COMPONENT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151308 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151308 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151308
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/9/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 17/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE
BANDE INCURVEE QUI A EVOLUE EN CDO AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES
FROIS. LA PASS SSMI DE 1043Z MONTRE QU'UN OEIL S'EST CONSTITUE DANS
LES COUCHES MOYENNES. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 50 KT
DANS LA FOURCHETTE HAUTE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES
(3.0-3.5).

LE DEPLACEMENT SE FAIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SUR LA FACADE
OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET A
L'AVANT D'UNE PROFONDE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD
VERS 70E. A PARTIR DE LUNDI LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES
INCERTAINE ET DEVIENT LIEE A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. A CETTE
ECHEANCE, LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE DEVIENT IMPORTANTE ALORS QUE
CERTAINS MEMBRES ET D'AUTRES MODELES DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS
UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE A L'EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT
DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A CE SOIR, AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
COTE POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, AVANT LA FIN DE NUIT, UNE CONTRAINTE DE
SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT APPARAITRE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTAL PLUS SEC. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME POURRAIT PLAFONNER ALORS QUE SON DEVELOPPEMENT EST GENE PAR
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC INTERMITTENTES. COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION
RECENTE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS ETRE A LA LIMITE DU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RENCONTRER A NOUVEAU DES
CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. L'IMPACT
DE CES CONDITIONS TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAVORABLE SUR L'INTENSITE
DEVRAIT DETERMINER LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION
TABLE SUR UNE PAUSE TEMPORAIRE DANS LE PROCESSUS D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, A L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.


CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151308
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A BANDING CLOUD PATTERN TO A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SSMI PASS AT 1043Z REVEAL THAT AN EYE PATTERN IS
BUILDING AT THE MID-LEVELS. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 50 KT
ON THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE BETWEEN 3.0 AND 3.5.


THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER BEFORE
SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL
AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(HURRICANE) STRENGTH BY THAT TIME. MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE
TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151225
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO
350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT .

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150649 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150649 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/9/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER DEPUIS
LA FIN DE NUIT AVEC UNE CONSOLIDATION DE LA BANDE INCURVEE. LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST MAINTENANT BONNE DANS TOUS LES QUADRANTS
COMME EN TEMOIGNE L'EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET
ASCAT DE CE MATIN REVELENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE TRES ASYMETRIQUE A
LA FOIS DE LA REPARTITION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE ET DU CHAMP DE
VENT. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 40 KT DANS LA FOURCHETTE HAUTE
DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES (2.5-3.0). LE SYSTEME A ETE
BAPTISE GABEKILE PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A 05 UTC.

LE DEPLACEMENT SE FAIT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SUR LA FACADE
OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET A
L'AVANT D'UNE PROFONDE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD
VERS 70E. A PARTIR DE LUNDI LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT
INCERTAINE ET DEVIENT LIE A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. L'HYPOTHESE QUI
CONTINUE D'ETRE PRIVILEGIEE EST QUE LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLISSANT
DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES
PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST. A CETTE ECHEANCE, LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE
DEVIENT IMPORTANTE ALORS QUE CERTAINS MEMBRES ET D'AUTRES MODELES
DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE A L'EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT
DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A CE SOIR, AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
COTE POLAIRE. DIMANCHE CEPENDANT, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST A
SUD-OUEST APPARAIT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR
ENVIRONNEMENTAL PLUS SEC. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT
RAPIDEMENT PLAFONNER ALORS QUE SON DEVELOPPEMENT EST GENE PAR DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC INTERMITTENTES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, A
L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LE FORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR
LE SYSTEME.


CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

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Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BUILDING
BANDING FEATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN EVERY
SECTORS BASED ON THE CIRRUS CANOPY. MW DATA AND SCATT DATA FROM ASCAT
THIS MORNING REVEAL AN ASYMMETRIC WIND AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT ON THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0. THE SYSTEM HAS
THEREFORE BEEN NAMED GABEKILE BY THE NWS OF MAURITIUS AT 05 UTC.


THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MAIN PHILOSOPHY REMAIN THAT A WEAKENING
SYSTEM COULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH-WEST. AT THIS FORECAST LEASTIME, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER SUNDAY,
A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED
BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY EVENING, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=

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Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150621
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO
350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT .

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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