Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELIDA-20
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 121433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Elida's remaining deep convection, located northeast of the center
of circulation, continues to shrink in coverage and wane in
intensity now that the cyclone is over waters of 23-24 degrees
Celsius. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers are 55-65 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are much lower.
Elida has weakened to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is
set at 55 kt as a blend of the estimates. With even colder waters
ahead and a steady increase in southwesterly shear, Elida is
expected to weaken quickly and likely lose its deep convection
within the next 24 hours, making it a remnant low by this time
tomorrow. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will
dissipate in 2-3 days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. The cyclone has
reached a break in the subtropical ridge, with a low- to mid-level
trough extending southwest of California. This pattern should
cause Elida to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest
during the next couple of days, and the track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario. The NHC track prediction is similar to
the previous forecast during the first 24 hours and then is nudged
slightly to the right after that time to lean closer to the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.5N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 121432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 118.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Elida is
expected to become a remnant low on Thursday. The remnant low
should dissipate by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will continue to affect portions
of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and will
begin to subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 121432
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 120834
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep
convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage,
while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is
on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak
data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a
large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt.
The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is
essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the
latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the
cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the
cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly
drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should
cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the
cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24
h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help
to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida
around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to
the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening,
and is similar to the previous forecast.

Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over
the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn
northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed.
This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant
low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and
is near the well-clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 120833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
northwest along with some decrease in forward speed is expected to
occur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so as
Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm today and degenerate to a remnant low on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 120833
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 126.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2020 12.3N 126.9W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2020 13.3N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 13.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 13.8N 131.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 14.0N 132.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2020 14.0N 133.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2020 13.9N 134.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 14.4N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 15.0N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2020 15.3N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2020 15.6N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2020 15.6N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2020 12.0N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2020 12.5N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2020 12.9N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 13.8N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 15.0N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 16.2N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2020 16.9N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2020 22.2N 116.3W STRONG
12UTC 12.08.2020 23.2N 118.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.08.2020 24.2N 120.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2020 25.5N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2020 26.9N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 139.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2020 12.5N 139.5W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2020 12.3N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2020 12.2N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2020 11.4N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 10.8N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 10.8N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2020 10.9N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2020 11.5N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2020 12.8N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.5N 118.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2020 15.8N 119.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2020 15.9N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 17.0N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 17.7N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2020 18.2N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2020 18.9N 126.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2020 18.6N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.3N 159.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2020 11.5N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 11.6N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2020 11.2N 164.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2020 10.5N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2020 9.6N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.0N 94.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2020 12.4N 96.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2020 13.4N 98.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2020 15.0N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2020 16.3N 104.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.0N 157.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2020 10.0N 157.9W WEAK
00UTC 18.08.2020 10.1N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120404

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed,
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level
center is located a little south of recent position estimates
using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed
toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours.
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep
convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the
various consensus aids.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a
trough located well west of southern California is expected to
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down
and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the
previous forecast was required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 120235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the
next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday
and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 120235
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 112035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last
advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye
inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than
the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to
justify lowering the initial intensity yet.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is
in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level
low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the
forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from
the previous advisory.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This
should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with
the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by
72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate
by 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 112035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 115.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 115.4 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as Elida moves
over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a
tropical storm Wednesday or Wednesday night and degenerate to a
remnant low Thursday or Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 112035
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 111545 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 11...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Correct seed to speed in motion paragraph

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 113.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 113.8 West. Elida is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as
Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to
weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant
low on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 111439
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the
eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then,
the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the
hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the
initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new
forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there
is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models,
which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining
guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off
of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the
northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has
been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This
should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous
forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new
forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the
global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 111439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 113.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 113.8 West. Elida is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward seed is expected
during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as
Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to
weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant
low on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 111439
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized
since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a
white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level
outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition,
earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida
possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the
recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the
intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.

Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So
much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin
turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of
300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be
any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course
over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually
turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For
now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast
period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory
track to the south and the consensus models to the north.

Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some
additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning
before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface
temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease
along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and
to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12
hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by
continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous
advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 113.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning. Weakening
is expected to begin by late afternoon and continue into Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110843
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110240
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida
had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the
eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the
system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed
is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should
steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward
speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is
that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing
(instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few
days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically
deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level
weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida
would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC
official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4,
with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still
on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward
adjustments could still be required overnight.

The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it
then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida.
In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last
advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler
waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the
northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the
post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is
consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...ELIDA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 112.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 112.1 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible on
Tuesday, with weakening likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110238
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 102033
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show
that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and
curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images
show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it
from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates
have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane.
The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island.

The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional
strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that,
however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in
southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening
trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when
it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C
waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high
end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of
the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge
located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer
the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed
for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge
with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward
motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF,
UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level
flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 102032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...ELIDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 110.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.9 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during
the next day or so, but steady weakening is forecast to begin
late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 102032
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 32.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2020 0 11.6N 32.7W 1013 20
0000UTC 11.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2020 0 18.5N 109.5W 991 52
0000UTC 11.08.2020 12 19.7N 112.1W 984 53
1200UTC 11.08.2020 24 20.8N 114.5W 982 60
0000UTC 12.08.2020 36 22.0N 117.2W 986 52
1200UTC 12.08.2020 48 22.9N 119.5W 996 38
0000UTC 13.08.2020 60 23.6N 121.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 13.08.2020 72 24.0N 122.1W 1007 21
0000UTC 14.08.2020 84 24.5N 123.2W 1009 20
1200UTC 14.08.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 129.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2020 36 12.4N 129.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 12.08.2020 48 12.8N 130.1W 1004 30
0000UTC 13.08.2020 60 14.2N 131.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 13.08.2020 72 14.7N 134.1W 1002 32
0000UTC 14.08.2020 84 15.3N 136.4W 1000 35
1200UTC 14.08.2020 96 15.6N 138.3W 997 39
0000UTC 15.08.2020 108 15.6N 140.2W 996 41
1200UTC 15.08.2020 120 15.4N 141.8W 997 39
0000UTC 16.08.2020 132 15.5N 142.7W 999 34
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 15.6N 143.0W 1001 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.8N 41.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2020 48 12.8N 41.5W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2020 60 13.0N 43.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 13.08.2020 72 13.9N 45.5W 1010 23
0000UTC 14.08.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.5N 119.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2020 108 15.5N 121.4W 1002 28
1200UTC 15.08.2020 120 16.3N 123.3W 999 32
0000UTC 16.08.2020 132 17.8N 125.0W 996 39
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 19.8N 126.4W 992 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.5N 150.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2020 132 11.5N 151.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 11.5N 152.8W 1005 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.2N 107.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2020 132 12.2N 107.8W 1003 30
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 11.9N 109.0W 1001 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.3N 174.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2020 132 11.3N 174.4W 1006 24
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 12.4N 175.2W 1005 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 166.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2020 144 12.5N 166.4W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101605

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 32.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2020 11.6N 32.7W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2020 18.5N 109.5W MODERATE
00UTC 11.08.2020 19.7N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2020 20.8N 114.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2020 22.0N 117.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2020 22.9N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2020 23.6N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2020 24.0N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2020 24.5N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 129.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2020 12.4N 129.1W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2020 14.2N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 14.7N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 15.3N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 15.6N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2020 15.6N 140.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2020 15.4N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 15.5N 142.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 15.6N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.8N 41.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 41.5W WEAK
00UTC 13.08.2020 13.0N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 13.9N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.5N 119.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2020 15.5N 121.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.08.2020 16.3N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2020 17.8N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 19.8N 126.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.5N 150.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 151.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.2N 107.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2020 12.2N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2020 11.9N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.3N 174.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2020 11.3N 174.4W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2020 12.4N 175.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 166.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2020 12.5N 166.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101605

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 101436
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC
SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was
somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of
north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics).
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while
the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher.
Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery,
the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the
intensity estimates.

Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific,
Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the
track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main
driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a
west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3
days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further
due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance
does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a
significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to
be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface
circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly
north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of
Elida's recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the
previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches.

The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting
Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has
about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius.
These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the
next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility.
For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly
all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening
should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of
weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear
increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and
dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the
global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 101435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...ELIDA ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during
the next day or so, and Elida is forecast to become a hurricane
later today. Steady weakening is expected to begin late Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 101435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100851
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

After the earlier burst of deep convection and the development of a
small 10-nmi-wide low- to mid-level eye noted in passive microwave
satellite imagery, convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature
has eroded in the northwestern semicircle due to entrainment of dry
air, along with some modest northwesterly vertical wind shear. A
0314Z ASCAT-A overpass revealed peak winds of only 43 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds (RMW)
of 10-15 nmi. Satellite intensity estimates range from T3.5/55 kt
from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate of 53 kt and an ADT estimate of 59 kt. An average of these
intensity estimates, and allowing for some undersampling by the
scatterometer instrument due to Elida's small RMW, supports
maintaining an intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/13 kt.
Both the forecast track and rationale remain straight-forward and
basically unchanged from the previous advisory. Elida is expected to
be steered west-northwestward by a deep layer ridge to the north for
the next 72 hours or, followed by a westward motion on days 4 and 5
when Elida will be weakening over much cooler waters and becoming a
shallower cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance remains tightly
packed and, thus, the new official forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies near the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA
consensus track models.

The brief intensity hiatus that Elida is experiencing is expected
to be short-lived due to the cyclone's small RMW and the vertical
shear forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 12-36 hour
time frame. This should allow for Elida to strengthen -- possibly
even rapidly -- during the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling
off in the intensity due to the cyclone moving over sub-26C
sea-surface temperatures (SST). By 48-60 h, SSTs less than 25C and
modest southwesterly vertical wind shear will combine to induce
steady weakening. By 96 h or so, Elida is forecast to degenerate
into a post-tropical cyclone. The new official intensity forecast is
a little lower than the previous advisory, but is a little above
the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.3N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 108.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 108.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Elida is expected to become a hurricane later today. Steady
weakening is forecast begin Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100235
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Trends in satellite imagery over the past several hours indicate
that Elida continues to quickly increase in organization. There has
been an expanding central dense overcast, with the center of
circulation presumed to be underneath cloud tops of about -70 C.
Satellite intensity estimates TAFB and SAB as well as those from
UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt.

Environmental conditions favor rapid intensification over the next
24 h or so. The latest SHIPS RI index indicates a better than 30
percent chance of Elida strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h,
and based on the convective trends, the official forecast closely
follows this guidance. By 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to cross the
26 C SST isotherm, and begin to enter a progressively drier and more
stable atmospheric environment. This should cause steady weakening
to occur. By 96 h, Elida is forecast to have been over waters cooler
than 25 C for nearly 36 h. And as a result, the simulated satellite
imagery by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all indicate that the
deep convection will dissipate by that time. Therefore, Elida is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the 96 h forecast
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
from previous one, is close to the HCCA model intensity guidance for
the next couple of days, then trends towards the SHIPS guidance
thereafter.

Elida continues to move west-northwestward at 13 k, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico to the east Pacific.
This pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next few days.
After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is
expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade
wind flow. The model track forecasts are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the latest NHC forecast track is in the middle of the
consensus track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 17.8N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

...ELIDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 107.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.4 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane by Monday
morning. Steady weakening is forecast begin Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092040
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite
images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more
tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass
from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the
storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little
higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the
18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below
the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.

Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the
environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the
storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands,
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some
additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters
in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air
should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to
steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA,
in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance
envelope at the longer range times.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The
track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge
that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the
east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward
motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.4 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on
Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 104.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 104.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.4N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.0N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.7N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.2N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 105.6W.
09AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1202
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING WITH NAME OF THE TROPICAL STORM.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2020 11.4N 25.8W WEAK
00UTC 10.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 104.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2020 16.4N 104.6W WEAK
00UTC 10.08.2020 17.7N 107.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2020 18.7N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2020 19.8N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2020 20.3N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2020 20.6N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2020 20.8N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2020 21.1N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 21.1N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.8N 128.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 128.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2020 13.2N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2020 14.3N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2020 14.8N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2020 15.9N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2020 16.6N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2020 15.8N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2020 14.5N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 16.6N 119.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2020 16.6N 119.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091603

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a
well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region
surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm
strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the
improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side
of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at
40 kt.

The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been
really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible
imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida
is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across
northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida
on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After
that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow
and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5.
This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there
are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new
NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the
cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low
shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level
moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity
around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about
2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast
has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA
model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble.
Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's
structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48
hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend.
In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection
dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC
forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 105.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on
Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the
past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast
quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed
that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat
elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also
showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant
of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida
the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season.

Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to
track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of
Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night,
and further reformations of the center will be possible until the
system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the
position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in
that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to
move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered
by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the
southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end
of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds
become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in
excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly
high.

All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models
forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h.
Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet,
only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed
by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still
highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later
this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090840
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 104.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.1 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Elida
is expected to become a hurricane within the next two days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well
offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to
become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090233
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that
we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for
more than 12 hours. Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B
scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed
circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is
increasing near the estimated center while banding features are
becoming better defined. The system has sufficient convective
organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical
depression, and advisories are being initiated. Based on a ship
report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is
estimated to be near 30 kt. Upper-level outflow from the tropical
cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving
over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next
week. With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone
is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane
within a couple of days. The official forecast is similar to the
model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be
conservative. By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to
weakening.

Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate
of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt. The
steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several
days. A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the
southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a
generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.
Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower
circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow. The
official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and
corrected multi-model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

..NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well
offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to
become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090232
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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