Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GENEVIEVE-20
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 25.4N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.0N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.3N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.2N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.2N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 115.8W.
21AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
449 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212032
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Cool waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions have
continued to take a toll on Genevieve. The system has not had any
deep convection for more than 12 hours, and it is unlikely that any
organized deep convection will return. As a result, Genevieve has
become a post-tropical cyclone and this will be the final NHC
advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is set at 35 kt,
which is in agreement with recent scatterometer data. The
post-tropical cyclone should continue to gradually weaken over
cooler water during the next couple of days, and the global model
guidance indicates that the circulation will become an open trough
within 72 hours.

The cyclone continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. A
northwestward motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of
days, but the forward speed of the system is expected to slow as it
becomes increasing shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level
flow. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new
foreast is an extension of the previous advisory.

This is the final NHC advisory on Genevieve. Additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.8N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 28.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 29.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 30.2N 121.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...GENEVIEVE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Genevieve was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 115.5
West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with some reduction in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and the post-tropical cyclone is
forecast to dissipate within a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells from Genevieve that are affecting portions of
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will gradually
subside through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Genevieve. For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212030
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 115.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 115.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.3N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.2N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.2N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 115.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GENEVIEVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 114.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 114.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.1N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.6N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.5N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.3N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 115.1W.
21AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
505 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Genevieve continues to gradually weaken while it encounters cooler
waters and light to moderate southerly shear. Deep convection
associated with the system dissipated around the time of the
previous advisory, and the cyclone is now comprised of a swirl of
low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been reduced to
40 kt, which is a blend of the latest TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers.
Genevieve is expected to continue to gradually weaken today as it
moves over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius. It is unlikely that
organized deep convection will return, and Genevieve is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The cyclone's winds are
forecast to drop below tropical storm strength within 12 hours, and
the remnant low should continue to spin down over cooler waters west
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate in
about 72 hours.

Genevieve is moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should
continue on this general heading over the next couple of days as it
moves around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. The remnant low is forecast to decelerate by Sunday
as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the weaker
low-level flow.

Large swells from Genevieve that are spreading northward along
portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will
gradually subside on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.0N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 26.1N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 27.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z 28.7N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 29.5N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 30.3N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 114.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 114.8 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Genevieve is forecast to degenerate into
a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells from Genevieve that are spreading northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will gradually
subside on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211435
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.7N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211155
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 114.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico as discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 114.6 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Genevieve will move farther away
from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Genevieve is
forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are spreading northward
along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.1N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.4N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.0N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.7N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 113.3W.
21AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
575 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210840
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

The combination of moderate southerly vertical wind shear, cooler
sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 26 deg C, and dry mid-level air
has caused Genevieve to rapidly weaken over the past 24 hours. Very
little deep convection remains, and what convection there is has
been displaced well to the northeast of the low-level center. An
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass at 0428Z indicated one surface wind
vector of 43 kt in the northeastern quadrant about 40 nmi from the
center. Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The
34-kt wind radii have also been decreased in all quadrants based on
the scatterometer data.

Passive microwave imagery the scatterometer data indicate that
Genevieve's center is southwest of the previous advisory track, and
the initial motion is now 295/09 kt. The weakening cyclone and its
remnants should continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward
during the next few days, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed
as the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. The
decoupled remnant mid-level circulation and its attendant moisture
plume, however, are expected to move northward today through Sunday,
and move into the southwestern United States on Monday. On the
forecast track, Genevieve should gradually move away from the Baja
California coast throughout the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast lies very near the multi-model consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA, and is a little to the left of the previous advisory track.

Continued weakening is expected due to a combination of increasingly
southerly wind shear, dry air, and progressively cooler SSTs.
Genevieve is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight,
and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish over the
southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula later this
morning.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve will continue to affect the
coast of the southern and central Baja California peninsula through
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 24.3N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.4N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 26.9N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 28.2N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 29.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 30.0N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 31.0N 122.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.2N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.0N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 114.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210806
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...GENEVIEVE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 114.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area. Conditions will
gradually improve and the warning will likely be discontinued later
this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 114.3 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Genevieve will move farther away
from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected, and Genevieve is forecast to become
a tropical depression by tonight, and degenerate into a remnant
low by early Saturday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will gradually diminish later this
morning within the warning area across the southwestern Baja
California peninsula.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are spreading northward
along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210544
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 113.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve
was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 113.8 West.
Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve will move
farther away from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Genevieve
is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant
low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area in the southwestern Baja California peninsula
during the next few hours, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches across southern Baja California Sur.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are spreading northward
along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.1N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.4N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.0N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.7N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 113.3W.
21AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
575 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND
220400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210236
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Genevieve continues to gradually weaken. Recent microwave images
indicate that the storm has become quite asymmetric with the
low-level center located on the southern edge of the main area of
deep convection. The decay in the structure of the storm appears
to be the result of a combination of southerly wind shear and dry
air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. The
initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which is near the higher end
of the satellite intensity estimates. Surface observations from
the southwestern coast of the Baja California Sur indicate that the
storm is still producing tropical-storm-force winds there.

Genevieve has moved a little to the left recently, but a longer
term motion is northwestward at 9 kt. The weakening storm should
continue to move generally northwestward during the next few days
at roughly the same forward speed as it remains steered by a low-
to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States.
This track should take the storm gradually away from the Baja
California coast. The NHC track forecast lies very near the
multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected due to a combination of
increasingly southerly wind shear, dry air, and progressively
cooler SSTs. Genevieve is likely to weaken to a tropical
depression in a day or so, and it is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for a few
more hours over the southwestern coast of the Baja California
peninsula.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve will continue to affect the
coast of the southern and central Baja California peninsula through
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 24.2N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 26.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 27.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.0N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 29.7N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 30.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT STILL
PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 113.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 113.2 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to gradually
move away from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Genevieve
is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night and a
remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An automated observing site near Puerto Cortes
recently reported a wind gust of 42 mph (68 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area in the southwestern Baja California peninsula
during the next few hours, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches across southern Baja California Sur.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are spreading northward
along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 113.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 113.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.0N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 113.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202341
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 112.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 112.8 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to gradually
move away from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Genevieve is expected to
become a remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An automated observing site near Puerto Cortes
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area in the southwestern Baja California peninsula
during the next several hours, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches across southern Baja California Sur, with
isolated storm totals of 12 inches across far southern Baja
California Sur. While rainfall will generally continue to decrease
in intensity, some instances of flash flooding and mudslides remain
possible through this evening.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are spreading northward
along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 112.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 112.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.8N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.1N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.4N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.6N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.4N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.3N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 112.6W.
20AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
609 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202042
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Dry and stable air continues to be drawn into Genevieve's
circulation. This is noted by a slow erosion of convection over
the southwestern semicircle, and warming cloud tops over
the past several hours, indicating weakening. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon
measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 71 kt, which reduce to
64 kt at the surface, with peak SFMR winds of 57 kt. A blend of
these values supports lowering the initial intensity to 60 kt.

Genevieve should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over
progressively lower oceanic temperatures. By Friday, the cyclone is
expected to cross the 26 C SST isotherm, and it will reach waters
cooler than 24 C by early Saturday. These much cooler waters should
cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by late Saturday.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Genevieve continues to move northwestward at 10 kt, paralleling the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula. This general motion
is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates later in the
forecast period. On this track, Genevieve will begin to move away
from the peninsula tonight. The NHC forecast track is very little
changed from the previous one and is in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula through this evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected to continue over portions of this area during
this time.

2. Rainfall from Genevieve will continue to decrease in intensity
over southern Baja California Sur, although some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides remain possible through this evening.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 23.9N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 26.1N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 27.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 28.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 29.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 30.3N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202042
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 112.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Southern Baja California
peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula from Los Barriles to La Paz has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions continue to spread northward over the Southern Baja
California peninsula, especially over higher terrain.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 112.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to pass just
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
through this evening, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Genevieve is expected to
become a remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An automated observing site near Puerto Cortes
recently reported a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula through
this evening, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches across southern Baja California Sur, with
isolated storm totals of 12 inches across far southern Baja
California Sur. While rainfall will generally continue to decrease
in intensity, some instances of flash flooding and mudslides remain
possible through this evening.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202041
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 112.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 112.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 26.1N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.4N 117.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.3N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 112.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201732
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 111.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions have already been occurring along the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula since last night, and these
conditions continue to spread northward over the Southern Baja
California peninsula, especially over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve
was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 111.9 West.
Genevieve is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to
the southwest and west of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula today, and move away from the peninsula on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (115 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further gradual weakening is expected today and
through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula
today and may linger into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area through the early afternoon,
especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches across southern Baja California Sur, with
isolated storm totals of 12 inches across far southern Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 111.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.1N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.3N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.6N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.8N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.8N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.1N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 111.5W.
20AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 666 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 201440
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Genevieve's overall satellite appearance continues to slowly
degrade, with a shrinking central dense overcast and dry, stable air
being drawn into the eastern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak
data-T numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased
to 3.5. However, since the CI numbers from these respective analyses
are 4.5, the initial intensity of 65 kt will be based off a blend of
those two values.

Genevieve is forecast to move over gradually cooler waters during
the next 24 h, so a slow weakening trend is expected to continue
through that time. Beyond 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26C SST
isotherm and reach temperatures below 24C after 48 h. This should
result in a faster rate of weakening, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near
the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Genevieve has made its anticipated turn toward the northwest and has
accelerated slightly to 10 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue until the cyclone dissipates later in the forecast
period. On this track, Genevieve will move parallel to the coast of
the southern Baja California peninsula today and then begin to move
away from the peninsula late tonight. The NHC forecast track is
very little changed from the previous one, with the only notable
difference being a slightly faster forward speed. This forecast is
very near the tightly clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula today. Tropical storm conditions will continue
over southern Baja California Sur through today, and possibly linger
into tonight.

2. Continued heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur through today.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 23.3N 111.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 24.1N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 25.3N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 26.6N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 27.8N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 28.8N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 29.7N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 31.1N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE PARALLELING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 111.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Southern Baja California peninsula
from Los Barriles to Todos Santos has been replaced with a Tropical
Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions have already been occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula since last
night, and these conditions continue to spread northward over the
Southern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 111.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today,
and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further gradual weakening is expected today and through the
weekend. However, Genevieve is expected to remain a hurricane
through much of today while it passes just to the southwest and
west of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An automated observing site near the Cabo San Lucas
Marina recently reported a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula through today
and may linger into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area through the early afternoon, especially over
higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches across southern Baja California Sur, with
isolated storm totals of 12 inches across far southern Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 201439
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE LAST
NIGHT...AND THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 111.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 111.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.1N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.7N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 31.1N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 111.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201159
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE TURNS NORTHWEST...
...HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 111.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, especially
over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today,
and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further gradual weakening is expected today and through the
weekend. However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane
through today while it passes just to the southwest and
west of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). An automated observing site near the Cabo San Lucas
Marina recently reported a wind gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few hours in
the warning area. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward
within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula
through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area later this morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4
to 8 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 110.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.3N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.4N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.5N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.7N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.9N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.8N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 30.4N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 110.6W.
20AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200840
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Recent microwave overpasses and conventional enhanced infrared
satellite imagery indicate that just a fragment of Genevieve's
eyewall remains in the northeast quadrant. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates have once again decreased as well as an earlier
SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS. Consequently, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of these data.

Genevieve will continue traversing gradually cooler oceanic
temperatures today and Friday which will aid in additional spin
down of the cyclone. Afterward, Genevieve is forecast to move
over much cooler SSTs, less than 25 degrees Celsius, which should
induce a swifter weakening trend, and ultimately, cause the cyclone
to degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours. The new NHC
intensity forecast is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected
Consensus Intensity model through 48 hours, then is adjusted
to agree more with the global model guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or
330/6 kt, but a turn toward the northwest is forecast today. This
general motion should continue through the remainder of the
forecast period. On this track, the center of Genevieve will pass
just to the southwest or west of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today. The updated forecast is near the
middle of the large-scale and regional model envelope, and just to
the right of the previous advisory track.

Genevieve's wind radii were adjusted based on a 0422 UTC METOP-A/B
ASCAT overpass.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula today. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring over southern Baja California Sur and should continue
today. Hurricane conditions will continue for the next several
hours within the Hurricane Warning area.

2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through today.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 22.5N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 23.3N 111.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 24.4N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 26.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 27.9N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 30.4N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 110.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, especially
over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 110.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later this morning, with that
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today,
and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further gradual weakening is expected today and
through the weekend. However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a
hurricane through today while it passes just to the southwest
and west of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A gust to 90 mph (145 km/h) was recently reported in
Cabo San Lucas Marina, Baja California Sur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue for the next several
hours in the warning area. Tropical storm conditions will spread
northward within the warning area in the southern Baja California
peninsula through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area later this morning, especially over higher
terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to
8 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200835
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF
TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 110.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 110.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.3N 111.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.7N 116.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.9N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 110.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200547
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...GENEVIEVE INCHING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 110.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, especially
over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 110.2 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later this morning, with that
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today,
and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today and through the weekend.
However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane through this
morning while it passes just to the southwest and west of the
southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a gust to
84 mph (135 km/h) was recently reported in Cabo San Lucas Marina,
Baja California Sur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula through today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later
this morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.8N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.6N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.7N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 29.5N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.1N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 110.3W.
20AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200232
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Genevieve's infrared satellite presentation has continued to become
less defined since the previous advisory, with microwave imagery
indicating that the eyewall has completely eroded in the southern
semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased as a
result, with TAFB and SAB now assessing intensity estimates of
T4.5/77 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75
kt.

Genevieve has made a slight right-of-track jog, and the initial
motion estimate is now 345/06 kt. The recent north-northwestward
motion is expected to be temporary and is likely due to the outer
circulation interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja
California Sur. However, the global and regional models remain in
good agreement that the deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of
the hurricane is expected to turn Genevieve back toward the
northwest by early Thursday. That motion is then forecast to
continue through the end of the 5-day forecast period. On this
track, the center of Genevieve will pass just to the southwest or
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
overnight and on Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to
the right or east of the previous advisory track through 24 hours to
account for the recent northward jog. Thereafter, the new forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the eastern
edge of the model guidance suite.

Genevieve will continue to move over gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) and shallower warm waters over the next
day or so, which will produce cold upwelling, resulting in slow
weakening during the next 24-36 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone will
be moving over sub-25 deg C SSTs, which will induce a faster rate
of weakening, with Genevieve forest to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the IVCN simple consensus aid, due to the low
vertical shear conditions that are expected to persist through 36-48
hours, and is above the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across southern Baja California
Sur through Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight and continuing into Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through Thursday.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 22.0N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 22.8N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.6N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 25.7N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 26.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 28.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z 31.1N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...GENEVIEVE JOGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring
along the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, especially
over higher terrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this short-term
motion will continue for the next few hours. However, a turn toward
the northwest is expected by early Thursday morning, with that
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and
west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
tonight and Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected Thursday through Friday.
However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane tonight
and early Thursday while it passes just to the southwest and west
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported in
Los Cabos, Baja California Sur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja
California peninsula through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area later tonight or Thursday
morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF
TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 110.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 110.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.8N 110.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 110.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192356
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to pass just to the southwest and west of the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and
move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight,
with gradual weakening anticipated Thursday through Friday.
Genevieve is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes just to
the southwest and west of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to
48 mph (77 km/h) were recently reported in Los Cabos, Baja
California Sur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja
California peninsula through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area later tonight or Thursday
morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 109.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 109.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.2N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.1N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.9N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.8N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.0N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.1N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 29.1N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 110.1W.
19AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 192056
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Genevieve's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this
afternoon with the eye becoming less distinct in visible imagery and
a warming of the cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection.
Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have continued to fall,
and the reduction in wind speed has been confirmed by recent data
from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided
a couple of center fixes during its mission this afternoon.
Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only reported peak flight-level
winds of 82 kt and SFMR winds of 69 kt. The latest minimum pressure
reported by the aircraft was 974 mb. Since the aircraft only flew a
single alpha pattern, it is possible that the strongest winds were
not captured. Therefore the initial intensity has been
conservatively adjusted to 80 kt.

The hurricane will be moving over gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures over the next day or so, but only gradual
weakening expected during this time. Once Genevieve begins to move
away from the Baja California peninsula, it will be moving over
much cooler waters, and a slightly faster rate of weakening is
expected, with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 96
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
SHIPS statistical guidance for the first day or two, and then
trends closer the intensity consensus aids thereafter.

Genevieve is moving north-northwestward or 330/7 kt. Mid-level
ridging to the north of the system is expected to cause the
hurricane to turn northwestward tonight, and a northwestward motion
should then continue over the next several days. On this track, the
center of Genevieve will pass near or just southwest of the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula overnight and on
Thursday. The recent eastward shift in the guidance did not continue
in the 1200 UTC models, so little overall change was required from
the previous NHC track foreast. The updated forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope not far form the multi-model
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass near or just west of
the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across southern Baja California
Sur through Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight and continuing into
Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through Thursday.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affecting portions of
the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.2N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 23.1N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 23.9N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 24.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 26.0N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 27.1N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 30.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192055
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 110.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 110.1 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and move away from the
peninsula on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently completed
its investigation of the hurricane. Data from this mission
indicate that Genevieve was weaker than previously estimated and
now has maximum winds near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight, with gradual
weakening anticipated Thursday through Friday. Genevieve is
expected to remain a hurricane while it passes just west of the
southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja
California peninsula through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area later tonight or Thursday
morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along
the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 192055
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
2100 UTC WED AUG 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF
TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 110.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 110.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.1N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 110.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191752
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...RAIN BANDS FROM GENEVIEVE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 109.8 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this afternoon or tonight, with
this motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Genevieve is expected to move near but just southwest
of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and
Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, but Genevieve is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it passes near or just west of the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in the southern Baja California
peninsula by this afternoon, especially over higher terrain.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
tonight or Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern and west-central coasts of Mexico and are spreading
northward along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.6N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.3N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.6N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.9N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 109.7W.
19AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 832 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 191459
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Genevieve continues to have a fairly well-defined eye in
geostationary satellite imagery, however a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass shows that the eyewall is open to the southwest and that
deep convection is generally lacking over the southwestern portion
of the circulation. The various satellite intensity estimates range
from about 80-96 kt, which SATCON being at the higher end. The
cloud tops over the northeastern portion of the circulation have
cooled within the past few hours, so the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 100 kt. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Genevieve this
afternoon, and should provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity and size.

The hurricane has continued to move slightly right of track, and
the initial motion estimate is 335/8 kt. A north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest tonight as mid-level ridging builds over northwestern
Mexico. The new NHC forecast track has again been shifted slightly
east of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but it is essentially
unchanged thereafter. This track adjustment brings the center a
little closer to the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula tonight and early Thursday. Only a slight deviation to
the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds onshore,
and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the southern coast of Baja California.

Genevieve is forecast to move over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures over the next couple of days, which should result in
slow weakening during that time. After 48 hours, the cyclone will
encounter much cooler waters and a more stable air mass. Therefore,
a more rapid rate of weakening is expected after that time, with
the system becoming a remnant low by 96 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the statistical and dynamic model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass near or just west of
the Baja California peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across southern Baja California Sur this
afternoon and continuing through Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight and
continuing into Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through Thursday.

3. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.9N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.6N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 23.4N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 24.3N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 25.5N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 26.6N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191457
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to
Todos Santos.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to
Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this afternoon or tonight, with
this motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move near but just
southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
tonight and Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, but Genevieve is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it passes west of the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in the southern Baja California
peninsula by this afternoon, especially over higher terrain.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
tonight or Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 191457
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC WED AUG 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO
TODOS SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF
TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 270SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.4N 112.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.9N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191153
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...GENEVIEVE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 109.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required later today for portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 109.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this afternoon or tonight, with
this motion continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Genevieve is expected to move near but just southwest of
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and
Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today,
followed by weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula
by this afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions
of Baja California Sur.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.1N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.9N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.7N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 30.0N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 109.4W.
19AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190849
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Genevieve continues to have a well-defined eye embedded in a
central dense overcast with cloud tops temperatures to about -65C.
The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
have trended down since the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. Infrared
imagery hints that the hurricane may be undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, there are no recent microwave data to
confirm this.

Genevieve continues to move a little more northward than previously
expected, with the initial motion now north-northwest or 335/9 kt.
Mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane
should cause a turn toward the northwest during the next 12-24 h,
with this motion continuing through the balance of the forecast
period. The guidance has shifted a little to the east since the
last advisory, and the new NHC forecast track has been shifted to
the east of the previous track through 72 h. The new track keeps
the center offshore of the Baja California peninsula by 50-60 n mi.

The forecast track takes the center of Genevieve over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures, especially after 12 h. This
should cause rapid weakening to begin later today or tonight. The
new NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during
the first 12 h due to the chance the hurricane may undergoing an
eyewall replacement. After that time, the forecast follows the
rapid weakening trend of the previous forecast, with Genevieve
likely to become post-tropical by 96 h and a remnant low by 120 h.
The new forecast continues to lie above the intensity consensus.

The current forecast track requires a hurricane watch for portions
of the southern Baja California peninsula at this time. A
hurricane warning may be needed if succeeding forecast tracks
trend closer to the peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula. However, the forecast track is now close
enough to southern Baja California Sur that a Hurricane Watch has
been issued. Tropical storm conditions should spread across
southern Baja California Sur beginning this afternoon and
continuing through Thursday,

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 21.1N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 22.1N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 22.9N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 25.8N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0600Z 30.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190849
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...GENEVIEVE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required later today for portions of
southern Baja California peninsula.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this afternoon or tonight, with
this motion continuing through Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Genevieve is expected to move near but southwest of
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and
Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today,
followed by weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula
by this afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions
of Baja California Sur.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190848
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0900 UTC WED AUG 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO PUERTO
CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO
CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 240SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 30.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 109.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190534
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...GENEVIEVE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move near but southwest of the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and move away from
the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so, followed by weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by this afternoon,
especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by tonight or Thursday morning,
especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur
and portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2020 0 11.2N 41.1W 1011 20
1200UTC 19.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 68.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2020 0 13.5N 68.5W 1009 23
1200UTC 19.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 109.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2020 0 19.4N 109.1W 934 86
1200UTC 19.08.2020 12 20.7N 110.3W 948 81
0000UTC 20.08.2020 24 21.7N 110.7W 951 75
1200UTC 20.08.2020 36 22.9N 111.5W 941 81
0000UTC 21.08.2020 48 24.0N 112.9W 952 74
1200UTC 21.08.2020 60 25.3N 114.6W 969 59
0000UTC 22.08.2020 72 26.6N 117.1W 981 49
1200UTC 22.08.2020 84 27.2N 119.5W 990 39
0000UTC 23.08.2020 96 28.4N 121.3W 996 32
1200UTC 23.08.2020 108 28.8N 122.6W 1000 27
0000UTC 24.08.2020 120 29.5N 122.1W 1005 20
1200UTC 24.08.2020 132 30.6N 120.9W 1008 16
0000UTC 25.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 141.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2020 60 11.7N 141.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 22.08.2020 72 11.9N 140.7W 1005 23
1200UTC 22.08.2020 84 12.3N 141.1W 1004 28
0000UTC 23.08.2020 96 12.5N 142.0W 1003 30
1200UTC 23.08.2020 108 13.1N 142.4W 1002 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 120 14.1N 143.2W 1000 37
1200UTC 24.08.2020 132 14.7N 144.2W 997 40
0000UTC 25.08.2020 144 15.3N 145.3W 995 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 179.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2020 60 13.3N 179.0W 1008 26
0000UTC 22.08.2020 72 14.8N 179.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 22.08.2020 84 15.4N 178.4E 1008 24
0000UTC 23.08.2020 96 16.2N 176.8E 1008 26
1200UTC 23.08.2020 108 17.1N 175.1E 1010 25
0000UTC 24.08.2020 120 18.0N 173.5E 1011 21
1200UTC 24.08.2020 132 18.5N 171.8E 1012 20
0000UTC 25.08.2020 144 18.7N 170.6E 1011 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.9N 69.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 108 21.4N 71.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.7N 75.0W 1005 38
1200UTC 24.08.2020 132 24.2N 79.0W 1003 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.2N 82.2W 1001 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190406

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2020 11.2N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 68.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2020 13.5N 68.5W WEAK
12UTC 19.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 109.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2020 19.4N 109.1W INTENSE
12UTC 19.08.2020 20.7N 110.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.08.2020 21.7N 110.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2020 22.9N 111.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2020 24.0N 112.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2020 25.3N 114.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2020 26.6N 117.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.08.2020 27.2N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2020 28.4N 121.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2020 28.8N 122.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.08.2020 29.5N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2020 30.6N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 141.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2020 11.7N 141.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2020 11.9N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 12.3N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 12.5N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 13.1N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 14.1N 143.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 14.7N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 15.3N 145.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 179.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2020 13.3N 179.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2020 14.8N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 15.4N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 16.2N 176.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 17.1N 175.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 18.0N 173.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 18.5N 171.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 18.7N 170.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.9N 69.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 21.4N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 22.7N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 24.2N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 26.2N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190406

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.5N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.1N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.0N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.5N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 29.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 109.1W.
19AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

While Genevieve continues to have a distinct eye on satellite
images, the inner-core convection has weakened during the past
several hours, although there is little evidence of any eyewall
replacement cycle starting. The majority of the satellite estimates
range from 100 to 110 kt, and a blend of these values gives an
initial wind speed of 105 kt.

My strong suspicion is that the hurricane has weakened today due to
it encountering cooler SSTs from the wake of Hurricane Elida (from
last week), and these waters will likely help limit any near-term
chance of strengthening. While Genevieve should move north of the
wake tomorrow, its slow movement and fairly large size could help
to maintain upwelling and cooler waters near the core. In a couple
of days, quickly falling SSTs should cause rapid weakening, and
Genevieve is forecast to be a non-convective low in 4 days over
waters near 23C. The new forecast is lower than the previous one,
but it is still above the model consensus at most times before 48
hours.

The hurricane has turned to the right tonight, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 325/9 kt. A slightly slower
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so due to steering from a distant ridge over central
Mexico, taking the core of the hurricane near but just west of the
southern Baja California peninsula during that time. Similar to the
previous cycle, the models have shifted closer to the Baja
California Sur coast but still about 60 n mi offshore, and the NHC
forecast is adjusted in that direction. Thereafter, a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States should cause Genevieve to
turn more toward the west-northwest or northwest, away from the Baja
coast. A small eastward trend is noted at long range as well, and
the official forecast follows that lead.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.5N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.5N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.4N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 23.1N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 25.1N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 27.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...GENEVIEVE GRADUALLY APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 109.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.0 West. Genevieve
is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move near but southwest of the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday, and move
away from the peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so, followed by weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur
and portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0300 UTC WED AUG 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO PUERTO
CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO
CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.5N 110.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 112.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.1N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 118.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182355
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 108.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 108.8 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is forecast
to move near but southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Genevieve should hold its intensity or
strengthen a little through Wednesday, but steady weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur
and portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.7N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.8N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.7N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.4N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.4N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.6N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 28.9N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 108.8W.
18AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 983 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 182019
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Genevieve remains an impressive hurricane. Geostationary satellite
and microwave images show a well organized inner core with a nearly
circular eye and pronounced outer bands in most quadrants.
However, just recently, there has been evidence of a few dry slots
forming between the inner core and outer bands. An average of the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
supports holding the initial intensity steady at 115 kt.

The hurricane still has another day or so over warm SSTs and in
favorable atmospheric conditions, so Genevieve should maintain its
intensity or perhaps strengthen a little during that time period.
After that time, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air,
and an increase in wind shear should cause a rapid decay of the
cyclone. Genevieve will likely become post-tropical in 4 to 5 days
when it is expected to be over SSTs of 22-23 C. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance for the first day
or so, and then falls in line with the various consensus aids after
that.

Genevieve is moving a little slower to the northwest, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. A slightly slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, taking
the core of the hurricane just west of the southern Baja California
peninsula during that time. The models have shifted to the right
this cycle, closer to the Baja coast, and the NHC forecast follows
this trend. Thereafter, a building mid-level ridge should cause
Genevieve to turn slightly to the left, away from the Baja coast.
Due to the eastward shift in the track forecast, the government of
Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning and Watch northward
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 108.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 109.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.9N 110.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 21.8N 111.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 22.7N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 24.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 26.6N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 28.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182016
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
from Todos Santos to Puerto Cortes and has extended the Tropical
Storm Watch northward from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Puerto
Cortes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto
Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.7 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico today. The center of the hurricane is
then forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Genevieve should hold its intensity or
strengthen a little through Wednesday, but steady weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur and
portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 182016
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE AUG 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM TODOS SANTOS TO PUERTO CORTES AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH NORTHWARD FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO PUERTO
CORTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO
CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.8N 111.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 26.6N 118.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.9N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...EYE OF GENEVIEVE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE PASSES TO
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos
to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico today. The center of the hurricane is
then forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today and
tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and should
continue through the end of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur and
portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 107.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 107.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.0N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.2N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.2N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.2N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.1N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.3N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 108.2W.
18AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 181458
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Since the issuance of the last advisory, Genevieve has continued to
rapidly intensify. The major hurricane has a very well-defined and
clear eye and microwave imagery as recent as 12Z did not show any
indication of a secondary eyewall. Objective intensity estimates
from the UW-CIMSS SATCON were as high as 124 kt earlier this
morning, but subjective Dvorak estimates at 12Z were a little lower
due to the formation of a small break in the cold cloud tops
surrounding Genevieve's eye. Even then, a blend of all available
intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 115 kt for this
advisory.

Additional rapid strengthening is possible for at least the next
12 h given the current structure of the hurricane and the extremely
favorable environment it is moving through. The NHC forecast is well
above the guidance for the next 24 h out of respect for that
possibility. It is worth noting that eyewall replacement cycles are
generally poorly forecast and the onset of one could bring an
abrupt halt to Genevieve's intensification. By the time Genevieve
nears the Baja California peninsula on late Wednesday, rapid
weakening is expected as the system moves over cooler waters and
encounters an increase in southwesterly shear associated with an
upper-level trough to the northwest. Upwelling from the hurricane's
own wind field and decreasing forward speed could also bring about
weakening. By the end of the weak Genevieve will likely weaken to a
tropical storm and then become a remnant low.

The hurricane is moving slightly slower toward the northwest and a
further decrease in forward speed is anticipated for the next day
or two. There was no substantial change made to the NHC track
forecast, and Genevieve is still predicted to be steered just west
of the Baja California peninsula by a deep-layer ridge centered over
the southwestern U.S. The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
so confidence in the forecast remains fairly high.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 108.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.0N 109.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.2N 110.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.3N 111.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 23.2N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.1N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 26.3N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 28.7N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181458
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...GENEVIEVE BRINGING HIGH SURF AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE PASSES TO
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos
to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico today. The center of the hurricane is
then forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and should
continue through the end of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur and
portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181456 CCA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2020

CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS
TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 26.3N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.7N 121.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181454
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS
TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 26.3N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.7N 121.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181141
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
600 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN GENEVIEVE PASSES TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos
to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 107.6 West. Genevieve is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center of the
hurricane is forecast to move to the southwest of the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h)
with higher gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening
is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid weakening is
forecast to begin by late Wednesday and should continue through the
end of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.7N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.9N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.9N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.5N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 107.3W.
18AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180851
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify this morning. A recent
GMI microwave overpass shows a well-defined eye and eyewall
present, and the eye is becoming much better defined in conventional
infrared imagery. Various objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates were averaging about 90 kt at 06Z, and recent
objective raw T-numbers from the CIMSS ADT technique have increased
to between 100-115 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity
is raised to 100 kt, making Genevieve a major category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 310/15 kt. The
hurricane is on the southwest side of a deep-layer ridge, and the
global models forecast this feature to persist for the next several
days. This should cause Genevieve to continue a northwestward
motion during the forecast period with some decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane should
move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula. The track model guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is a little
to the east of, and slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued rapid
intensification during the next 24 h or so, with the only alternate
possibility being that the intensification is interrupted by an
eyewall replacement cycle. By 36-48 h, the center will be over
decreasing sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content, and
during that time, Genevieve should start weakening. By the end of
the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to be over sea surface
temperatures of 21-22C, which should cause rapid weakening. The
new intensity forecast goes above the guidance in calling for a
peak intensity of 125 kt in 24 h, and it would not be a surprise if
Genevieve became stronger than that. After the peak, the new
forecast shows steady to rapid weakening, and by 120 hours the
system is expected to degenerate into a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone.

The forecast track and wind radii require a Tropical Storm
Warning for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula
at this time.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds over
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula beginning
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday as Genevieve passes
near or southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of this area.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.4N 107.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.7N 110.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.9N 111.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 21.9N 111.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 23.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 23.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...GENEVIEVE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz, and for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
from Todos Santos to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
* The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos
to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center
of the hurricane is forecast to move to the southwest of the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180850
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0900 UTC TUE AUG 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES
TO LA PAZ
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS
TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180534
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1200 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...CATEGORY 2 GENEVIEVE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.5 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn
to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to
occur by this afternoon and continue through at least early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center of the
hurricane is forecast to move to the southwest of the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours, and Genevieve is expected to become a major hurricane later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday afternoon,
especially over higher terrain.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 137.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2020 0 15.0N 137.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 18.08.2020 12 15.2N 138.6W 1010 24
0000UTC 19.08.2020 24 15.1N 139.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 19.08.2020 36 14.4N 140.6W 1009 25
0000UTC 20.08.2020 48 13.9N 140.9W 1008 23
1200UTC 20.08.2020 60 13.3N 141.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.08.2020 72 13.1N 140.9W 1005 23
1200UTC 21.08.2020 84 13.3N 140.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 22.08.2020 96 13.8N 142.2W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.08.2020 108 13.6N 144.3W 997 40
0000UTC 23.08.2020 120 13.6N 145.9W 1000 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 132 13.8N 147.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 144 14.2N 149.7W 999 42

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 63.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2020 0 11.2N 63.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 18.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2020 0 12.1N 34.8W 1011 22
1200UTC 18.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 162.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP902020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2020 0 10.2N 162.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.08.2020 12 10.0N 165.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 19.08.2020 24 10.1N 167.8W 1007 26
1200UTC 19.08.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 105.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2020 0 16.0N 105.8W 971 63
1200UTC 18.08.2020 12 17.3N 108.5W 966 65
0000UTC 19.08.2020 24 18.6N 110.2W 966 66
1200UTC 19.08.2020 36 20.0N 111.3W 962 67
0000UTC 20.08.2020 48 21.3N 112.4W 958 73
1200UTC 20.08.2020 60 22.5N 113.5W 963 69
0000UTC 21.08.2020 72 23.6N 115.3W 966 61
1200UTC 21.08.2020 84 24.6N 117.1W 977 51
0000UTC 22.08.2020 96 26.1N 119.0W 986 44
1200UTC 22.08.2020 108 27.0N 121.2W 992 36
0000UTC 23.08.2020 120 28.3N 123.1W 997 31
1200UTC 23.08.2020 132 29.4N 124.3W 1001 26
0000UTC 24.08.2020 144 30.4N 124.7W 1004 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.5N 179.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2020 84 13.2N 180.0E 1008 23
0000UTC 22.08.2020 96 14.8N 178.9E 1007 23
1200UTC 22.08.2020 108 15.7N 177.4E 1007 24
0000UTC 23.08.2020 120 17.0N 175.1E 1006 28
1200UTC 23.08.2020 132 18.1N 172.8E 1007 30
0000UTC 24.08.2020 144 18.9N 170.8E 1009 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 19.0N 57.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2020 84 19.0N 57.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.08.2020 96 20.1N 60.3W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.08.2020 108 20.7N 63.5W 1006 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 120 21.5N 66.6W 1004 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 132 22.4N 70.1W 1001 43
0000UTC 24.08.2020 144 23.5N 73.5W 996 49


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180408

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 180408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 137.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2020 15.0N 137.1W WEAK
12UTC 18.08.2020 15.2N 138.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2020 15.1N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2020 14.4N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2020 13.9N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2020 13.3N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2020 13.1N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2020 13.3N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 13.8N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 13.6N 144.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 13.6N 145.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 13.8N 147.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 14.2N 149.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 63.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2020 11.2N 63.2W WEAK
12UTC 18.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2020 12.1N 34.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 162.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP902020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2020 10.2N 162.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.08.2020 10.0N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2020 10.1N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 105.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2020 16.0N 105.8W STRONG
12UTC 18.08.2020 17.3N 108.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2020 18.6N 110.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2020 20.0N 111.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2020 21.3N 112.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2020 22.5N 113.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2020 23.6N 115.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2020 24.6N 117.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2020 26.1N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2020 27.0N 121.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2020 28.3N 123.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2020 29.4N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 30.4N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.5N 179.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2020 13.2N 180.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 14.8N 178.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 15.7N 177.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 17.0N 175.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 18.1N 172.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 18.9N 170.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 19.0N 57.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2020 19.0N 57.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.08.2020 20.1N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.7N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.5N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.4N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 23.5N 73.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180408

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 105.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 105.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.5N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.9N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.1N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.2N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.3N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.4N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.9N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 106.0W.
18AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Genevieve's rapid intensification phase continues, having
strengthened 40 kt over the past 24 hours. The upper-level outflow
pattern has continued to expand, and outflow channels to the north
and south have become evident in water vapor imagery and UW-CIMSS
upper-level wind analyses. A 20-nmi-wide, cloud-filled eye has
appeared in infrared and visible satellite imagery during the past
few hours, indicating that Genevieve's wind field and vertical
structure has improved significantly since the previous advisory.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates are T5.0/90 kt from TAFB
and T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while objective estimates are T4.7/82 kt
from UW-CIMSS ADT and T5.1/92 kt from the NHC. An average of these
estimates supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Genevieve has remained a well-behaved hurricane and lies on the
previous advisory track, maintaining a motion of 300/15 kt. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the
next 12 hours or so while the cyclone skirts the southwestern
periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge. A slight motion shift toward
the northwest is forecast during the 24-48 hour period, bringing
Genevieve's outer wind field a little closer to Baja California Sur.
Thereafter, a motion back toward the west-northwest is forecast,
which will keep the center of the hurricane moving parallel to but
offshore the west coast of Baja California Sur. The new NHC forecast
track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory
track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple and
corrected-consensus models.

Genevieve is forecast to continue its rapid intensification phase
for the next 36 hours or so while the hurricane moves within an
extremely favorable environment characterized by low vertical wind
shear less than 5 kt, dual outflow channels, sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) of 29-30C, and a very moist middle-troposphere.
By 48 hours, the hurricane will be moving over upper-ocean heat
content values of less than 5 units due to shallow warm ocean layer,
likely resulting in significant cold upwelling occurring. This
should initiate a gradual weakening trend, followed by rapid
weakening after 60 hours when Genevieve will be moving over sub-25
deg C water. By 120 hours, the hurricane is expected to degenerate
into a convection-free post-tropical cyclone over 21 deg C SSTs. The
NHC official intensity forecast remains near the the upper end of
the intensity guidance, and is similar to the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds over
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula beginning
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday as Genevieve passes
near or southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of this area.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.5N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.9N 109.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 21.2N 111.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 22.3N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 23.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 25.4N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 27.9N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...CATEGORY 2 GENEVIEVE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 106.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 106.0 West. Genevieve
is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A
turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
to occur by Tuesday afternoon and continue through at least early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center of the
hurricane is forecast to move to the southwest of the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become
a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday afternoon,
especially over higher terrain.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0300 UTC TUE AUG 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N 109.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 111.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.4N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 27.9N 120.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 106.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180017 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Corrected distance from Baja California

...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.3 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through at least early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move
parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. The center of the hurricane is forecast
to pass near or southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become
a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along
the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja
California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.3 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through at least early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move
parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. The center of the hurricane is forecast
to pass near or southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become
a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along
the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja
California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 103.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 103.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.6N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.3N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.8N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.2N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 104.8W.
17AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1283 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 172044
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Genevieve has continued to rapidly strengthen today, and has been
undergoing RI since its formation yesterday morning. One-minute
GOES-16 satellite imagery and an earlier GMI microwave overpass has
revealed very impressive banding features, along with evidence of a
small low-level eye feature. Since the time of that microwave data,
banding has continued to increase near the center, and it appears
that a banding-type eye may be forming. The various satellite
intensity estimates range from 70-80 kt, so the initial wind speed
has been raised to 75 kt.

Genevieve remains within a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric
environment, and the intensity guidance suggests that rapid
strengthening is likely to continue for another day or so. The
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index again shows a greater than 80-
percent chance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24
hours and about a 60-percent chance of a 40 kt increase over that
time period. The NHC intensity forecast continues to call for rapid
strengthening and shows Genevieve reaching category 4 strength by
late Tuesday. This is in line with the latest SHIPS and HFIP
corrected consensus models. After 48 h, the hurricane will be
moving over slightly cooler waters and weaken should begin, with a
faster rate of weakening expected on days 4 and 5.

The hurricane has moved a bit right of track since yesterday, but
the longer term motion is west-northwestward at 16 kt. A strong
ridge of high pressure over the western United States should
continued to steer Genevieve west-northwestward for another 24
hours. After that time, a slower northwestward motion should
commence. There is a bit more spread in the dynamical model
guidance with the GFS, its ensemble mean, and the HWRF having
shifted slightly eastward. However, the consensus aids have not
changed much, and the NHC track is similar to the previous advisory,
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Recent ASCAT data showed that the tropical-storm-force wind field
was a little larger than previously estimated over the eastern
semicircle of the storm. The initial and forecast wind radii have
been adjusted outward accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds over
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula beginning
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday as Genevieve passes
near or southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of this area.

2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.5N 104.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.6N 106.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.3N 109.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.6N 110.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 21.6N 111.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 22.8N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 24.8N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 27.2N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern portion of the Baja peninsula from Los Barriles on the
east coast to Todos Santos on the west coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 104.6 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn
to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to
occur by Tuesday afternoon and continue through at least early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center of the
hurricane is forecast to pass near or southwest of the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become
a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon.

SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along
the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja
California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 172035
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
2100 UTC MON AUG 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES ON THE
EAST COAST TO TODOS SANTOS ON THE WEST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.6N 111.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 113.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 27.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.4N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.0N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.4N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.7N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.0N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.2N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.3N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.4N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 103.1W.
17AUG20. HURRICANE 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 171451
TCDEP2

Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Data from a recent SSMIS microwave overpass reveals that an eye is
trying to form underneath the deep convection of Genevieve, but
there is some dry air near the center that may be disrupting the
formation of a solid eyewall. Despite that dry air, large bands
continue to the southwest and northwest of the center, and the deep
convection over the center is expanding in size. The latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support raising
the initial intensity to 65 kt, making Genevieve the third hurricane
of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

Genevieve jogged a little northwest over the past few hours, but the
longer term motion has been west-northwest at 16 kt. The main
steering mechanism for the cyclone is a strong mid-level ridge which
extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into
Mexico. The model guidance varies slightly on the strength and
orientation of this ridge over the next few days, which could play a
role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula. The GFS is the farthest east, but still keeps
the center well offshore, while The UKMET is the westernmost
solution. Overall, the guidance has changed little since early this
morning, and the official forecast is very near the previous track,
which lies near the TVCX/TVCE consensus.

The small amount of dry air near the center should get worked out
of the circulation shortly, and there is high confidence that
the rapid intensification of Genevieve will continue for the next
24-36 h. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a greater
than 95 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in strength in the next
24 h, and nearly an 80 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in
the next 36 h. The global, regional, and consensus intensity aids
all agree that rapid intensification will occur in one form or
another during this time frame as well. The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus and the IVCN
consensus, and is very close to the previous forecast.

Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread
northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 14.3N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 107.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.4N 109.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 19.7N 110.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 21.0N 111.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 24.3N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 26.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 171450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Genevieve.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 103.0 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northwest and a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur on
Tuesday and continue through at least early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel
to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening if forecast to continue over the next
day or so, and Genevieve is expected to become a major hurricane on
Tuesday. A weakening trend should begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve will begin affecting
portions of the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread
northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
to the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 171450
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
1500 UTC MON AUG 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GENEVIEVE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.4N 109.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 26.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 101.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 101.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.4N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.0N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.7N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.0N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.3N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.5N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 102.0W.
17AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 12E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1480 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170856
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Genevieve's infrared satellite presentation continues to improve in
organization, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense
Overcast and strong convection occurring in two bands to the
southwest and northwest of the center. There has been a dearth of
microwave data over the cyclone during the past few hours, so it's
difficult to know how the internal structure has changed, but
subjective and objective satellite estimates all support raising
the intensity to 55 kt.

Genevieve's motion has not changed--still west-northwestward (290
degrees) at 16 kt. The cyclone will be moving along the periphery
of a strong mid-level ridge which extends from the southwestern
United States southeastward into Mexico. This ridge should steer
Genevieve toward the west-northwest or northwest for the entire
5-day forecast period, but small variations in the strength and
orientation of the ridge will play a role in how close Genevieve
gets to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The
track models are showing a slight bend to the storm's forecast path
in 2-3 days, with the most recent run of the GFS showing a much
closer approach to the Baja California peninsula. At this stage,
however, that model is a bit of an outlier compared to the other
guidance. Still, given the new set of models, the updated NHC
track forecast has been shifted north and east of the previous
track prediction, and it lies very close to the ECMWF, HWRF, and
HCCA model solutions.

Some of the intensity guidance for Genevieve is incredible. Due to
low shear, very warm water, and high atmospheric moisture, several
of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices for the
12-, 24-, and 36-hour forecast periods are between 95 and 100
percent--numbers that suggest there is little doubt that Genevieve
will go through a period of significant RI during the next couple
of days. RI is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast,
which is very near the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble
solutions and shows Genevieve peaking as a category 4 hurricane in
about 48 hours. Amazingly, the LGEM and COAMPS-TC models are even
higher than what is indicated in the official forecast, showing a
peak intensity of 125-130 kt. A combination of cooler waters and
increasing shear (especially at the end of the forecast period) is
expected to cause weakening on days 3 through 5.

Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread
northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.3N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 14.4N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.4N 108.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 20.0N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 25.5N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170852
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 101.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Genevieve.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 101.7 West. Genevieve
is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
northwestward motion with a gradual reduction in forward speed is
expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through at least early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is
expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is anticipated during the
next couple of days, and Genevieve is forecast to become a
hurricane later today and a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve will begin affecting
portions of the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread
northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
to the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170851
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122020
0900 UTC MON AUG 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 101.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 101.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 104.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 111.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 25.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 101.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>