Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LAURA-20
in United States, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominica

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92C ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 142.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2020 0 11.8N 142.7W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.08.2020 12 12.4N 143.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 29.08.2020 24 12.4N 144.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 29.08.2020 36 12.5N 145.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 30.08.2020 48 12.5N 146.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 30.08.2020 60 13.0N 148.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 31.08.2020 72 13.3N 151.0W 1006 29
1200UTC 31.08.2020 84 13.7N 153.1W 1007 28
0000UTC 01.09.2020 96 13.8N 155.4W 1007 30
1200UTC 01.09.2020 108 13.7N 157.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 02.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2020 0 20.7N 106.5W 1000 38
1200UTC 28.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 115.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2020 0 17.5N 115.4W 997 39
1200UTC 28.08.2020 12 18.6N 114.7W 998 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 24 19.4N 114.3W 995 43
1200UTC 29.08.2020 36 21.1N 114.1W 995 40
0000UTC 30.08.2020 48 23.3N 114.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 30.08.2020 60 24.6N 115.7W 1004 24
0000UTC 31.08.2020 72 25.1N 116.6W 1004 22
1200UTC 31.08.2020 84 25.3N 117.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 01.09.2020 96 26.0N 117.2W 1008 21
1200UTC 01.09.2020 108 26.3N 117.5W 1011 18
0000UTC 02.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2020 0 34.2N 92.3W 996 24
1200UTC 28.08.2020 12 36.2N 91.2W 1000 22
0000UTC 29.08.2020 24 37.0N 88.2W 1001 17
1200UTC 29.08.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.2N 129.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2020 84 14.2N 129.6W 1008 25
0000UTC 01.09.2020 96 15.1N 128.5W 1008 27
1200UTC 01.09.2020 108 16.0N 127.3W 1009 21
0000UTC 02.09.2020 120 16.2N 126.6W 1010 19
1200UTC 02.09.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92C ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 142.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2020 11.8N 142.7W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2020 12.4N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 12.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 12.5N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 12.5N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2020 13.0N 148.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2020 13.3N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2020 13.7N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 13.8N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 13.7N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2020 20.7N 106.5W MODERATE
12UTC 28.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 115.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2020 17.5N 115.4W MODERATE
12UTC 28.08.2020 18.6N 114.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 19.4N 114.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 21.1N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 23.3N 114.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2020 24.6N 115.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2020 25.1N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2020 25.3N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 26.0N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 26.3N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2020 34.2N 92.3W MODERATE
12UTC 28.08.2020 36.2N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 37.0N 88.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.2N 129.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.2N 129.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 16.0N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.2N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a
day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm
intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a
tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical
low within a couple of days, and then transform into an
extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The
official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to
baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period,
the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to
the east of the Canadian Maritimes.

Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt.
A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing
forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the
stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the
latest dynamical model consensus.

There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next
couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future
information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header
WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Key Messages:

1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding
along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate
river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding
potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi,
lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and
Saturday.

2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern
Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri
Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop
Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Laura Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...LAURA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER ARKANSAS...
...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 92.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Laura
was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 92.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight.
A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on
Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday, and over the western Atlantic on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Laura is expected to become a remnant low
pressure system on Saturday, and an extratropical low later this
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the
following additional rainfall totals:

Over central and northern Arkansas: Additional 3 to 6 inches.

Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches,
with isolated additional totals of 5 inches.

Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and south-central to
southeast Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5
inches.

This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the
Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern
Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across
eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the
Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to
redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the
Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header
WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 92.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER
WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect inland over portions of
southern and central Arkansas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Laura is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura
is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi
Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday, and over the
western Atlantic on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression later this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce the
following additional rainfall totals:

Over central and eastern Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches.

Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches,
with isolated additional totals of 5 inches. Isolated storm totals
of 15 to 18 inches across southwest Louisiana.

Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and southeast
Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the
Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern
Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
over portions of southeastern and eastern Arkansas for the next few
hours.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly
across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a
few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening
across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272043
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura has continued to weaken this afternoon. The satellite and
radar presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to degrade,
and the center has now moved into southern Arkansas. The initial
intensity has been reduced to 45 kt, and is based on a blend of
surface observations, Doppler radar data, and typical over land
tropical cyclone filling rates. Sustained tropical storm force
winds have been observed in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to
nearly 50 kt were reported in southern Arkansas earlier this
afternoon.

Laura will continue to rapidly weaken during the next 6-12 hours,
and it is expected to become a tropical depression either this
evening or overnight. The extratropical remnants could strengthen
over the western Atlantic early next week, and the track and
intensity forecast for that time is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The tropical storm has turned north-northeastward or 015/13 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward, and then east-
northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies on Friday. This motion will take Laura or its remnants
across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday. After that time, the system should accelerate
east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic. The
updated NHC track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory
and is close to the various consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue
near the center of Laura over portions of extreme northern Louisiana
and Arkansas this evening.

2. Flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways
will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and
urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the
middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday.

3. A few tornadoes are possible this evening across central and
eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes
should redevelop Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the
Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 33.4N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/0600Z 35.3N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 36.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 37.4N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 39.6N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z 43.1N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 48.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...FLOODING RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 92.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect inland over portions of
northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and extreme western
Mississippi.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday, and over the western Atlantic on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or
overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce the
following additional rainfall totals:

Over central and eastern Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches.

Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches,
with isolated additional totals of 5 inches. Isolated storm totals
of 15 to 18 inches across southwest Louisiana.

Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and southeast
Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the
Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern
Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will spread
into portions of southeastern and eastern Arkansas through this
evening.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly
across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a
few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening
across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272041
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 92.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 92.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.3N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.4N 85.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 43.1N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 48.8N 50.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 92.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271756
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 92.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located inland over northern Louisiana near latitude 32.9 North,
longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this motion should continue through this afternoon.
A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast
to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday,
and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or
overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust
to 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Monroe Regional
Airport in Louisiana. A wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was
recently reported at South Arkansas Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast
and will continue to subside over the next few hours.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread into
northern Louisiana and portions of Arkansas through this evening.

RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches
over Louisiana.

This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi
Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the
central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes
will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday
into Friday night.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 271653
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...

Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of
40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

This will be the last hourly position update issued on Laura. The
intermediate advisory will be issued at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 92.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2020

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2020 0 18.9N 105.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 28.08.2020 12 20.7N 106.7W 999 38
1200UTC 28.08.2020 24 23.1N 108.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 29.08.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 116.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2020 0 16.9N 116.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 28.08.2020 12 18.0N 115.4W 998 39
1200UTC 28.08.2020 24 18.8N 115.3W 996 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 36 19.4N 115.1W 995 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 48 20.8N 114.9W 993 42
0000UTC 30.08.2020 60 22.8N 114.8W 998 38
1200UTC 30.08.2020 72 24.8N 115.5W 1003 21
0000UTC 31.08.2020 84 25.9N 116.5W 1004 20
1200UTC 31.08.2020 96 26.5N 117.0W 1008 19
0000UTC 01.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2020 0 31.4N 93.0W 973 44
0000UTC 28.08.2020 12 34.4N 92.4W 987 30
1200UTC 28.08.2020 24 35.9N 91.2W 993 30
0000UTC 29.08.2020 36 36.9N 87.9W 994 23
1200UTC 29.08.2020 48 37.0N 82.1W 994 27
0000UTC 30.08.2020 60 36.9N 75.3W 992 41
1200UTC 30.08.2020 72 40.8N 67.8W 978 50
0000UTC 31.08.2020 84 48.0N 59.1W 971 49
1200UTC 31.08.2020 96 51.6N 58.4W 968 43
0000UTC 01.09.2020 108 50.6N 55.1W 980 40
1200UTC 01.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.2N 143.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2020 24 12.2N 143.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 29.08.2020 36 12.3N 144.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 29.08.2020 48 12.3N 145.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 30.08.2020 60 12.4N 147.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 30.08.2020 72 12.5N 149.6W 1006 27
0000UTC 31.08.2020 84 13.0N 151.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 31.08.2020 96 13.3N 154.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 01.09.2020 108 14.0N 156.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 01.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2020 96 14.4N 63.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 01.09.2020 108 15.1N 65.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 01.09.2020 120 15.8N 68.6W 1004 34
0000UTC 02.09.2020 132 16.3N 71.4W 998 40
1200UTC 02.09.2020 144 17.0N 74.9W 989 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.5N 127.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2020 96 15.2N 127.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 01.09.2020 108 16.4N 126.3W 1008 21
1200UTC 01.09.2020 120 16.7N 125.6W 1009 24
0000UTC 02.09.2020 132 16.7N 125.0W 1010 24
1200UTC 02.09.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2020

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2020 18.9N 105.9W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2020 20.7N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 23.1N 108.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 116.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2020 16.9N 116.1W MODERATE
00UTC 28.08.2020 18.0N 115.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 18.8N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 19.4N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 20.8N 114.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 22.8N 114.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2020 24.8N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2020 25.9N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2020 26.5N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2020 31.4N 93.0W STRONG
00UTC 28.08.2020 34.4N 92.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.08.2020 35.9N 91.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2020 36.9N 87.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 37.0N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 36.9N 75.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2020 40.8N 67.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2020 48.0N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2020 51.6N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 50.6N 55.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.2N 143.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2020 12.2N 143.9W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2020 12.3N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 12.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 12.4N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2020 12.5N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2020 13.0N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2020 13.3N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 14.0N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.4N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.3N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2020 17.0N 74.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.5N 127.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 15.2N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 16.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 16.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.7N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 271553
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...

Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 92.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271448
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura has continued to move inland over west-central Louisiana this
morning. Satellite and radar imagery has shown a gradual filling of
the eye, and a reduction in Doppler velocities in the northeastern
eyewall. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt, based on a reduction
of the Doppler velocities and the typical filling rate of inland
hurricanes. The highest wind gusts at official observing sites
within the past few hours has been at Alexandria, Louisiana, where a
gust to 75 kt has been reported.

The hurricane is moving slightly east of due north or 005/14 kt. A
general northward motion should continue through this evening as the
hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over
the southeastern United States. Laura should turn northeastward
overnight while it moves across Arkansas and becomes embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies. A faster east-northeastward motion is
forecast by late Friday, which will bring Laura or its remnants
across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday. After that time, the system is expected to accelerate
east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Laura will continue to rapidly weaken today while it moves farther
inland. The cyclone will become a tropical storm this afternoon and
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or early
Friday. Although Laura is weakening, strong wind gusts are likely
to spread over northern Louisiana and Arkansas into this evening.
The UKMET and ECMWF models continue show the extratropical remnants
of Laura strengthening somewhat over the western Atlantic, and the
NHC forecast continues to depict the system as a gale-force low at
days 3-5. An alternate scenario is for the system to be absorbed
by a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic before the end of
the forecast period. The extratropical portion of the forecast is
based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge will result in elevated water levels for
the next few hours along the Gulf Coast from Sabine Pass, Texas, to
Port Fourchon, Louisiana. In some areas where surge penetrated far
inland, flood waters will not fully recede for several days.

2. Damaging winds will continue near the center of Laura over
portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas today and this evening.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to
moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and
flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 31.9N 93.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271448
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 93.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Sabine Pass,
Texas and east of Port Fourchon, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
inland over northwestern Louisiana near latitude 31.9 North,
longitude 93.1 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 16 mph
(26 km/h) and this motion should continue through today. A
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and
Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move northward across
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast
to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday,
and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to
become a tropical storm withing the next few hours, and weaken
to a tropical depression tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast
and will continue to subside over the next few hours.

WIND: Damaging wind gusts and tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread into portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas
through this evening.

RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches
over Louisiana.

This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi
Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the
central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes
will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday
into Friday night.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf
coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271447
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS...
TEXAS AND EAST OF PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TEXAS TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 93.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 271356
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
900 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

Alexandria International Airport, Louisiana, recently reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (128
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 271254
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

Alexandria International Airport, Louisiana, recently reported a
sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 93.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271158
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 93.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from High Island to Intracoastal City has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should
continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward
motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will move northward across western and northern Louisiana
through this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move
over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and
the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). An observing site in Alexandria, Louisiana,
recently reported a wind gust to 74 mph (119 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...4-8 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Life-threatening storm surge with large and destructive waves will
continue within the Storm Surge Warning area this morning. This
surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also
expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and
western Louisiana this morning. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12
inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi
Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the
central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 271059
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

Fort Polk, Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 93.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270953
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

Beauregard Regional Airport in De Ridder, Louisiana recently
reported a wind gust of 82 mph (132 km/h).

An NWS RAWS site at Lacassine, Louisiana recently reported a wind
gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

Acadiana Regional Airport reported a wind gust of 76 mph within the
past 30 minutes.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 93.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...LAURA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning west of High Island, Texas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from east of Intracoastal City to west of
Morgan City Louisiana has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.4 West. Laura is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should
continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward
motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will move across southwestern Louisiana this morning, and then
continue northward across the state through this afternoon. The
center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is
expected to become a tropical storm later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). An observation in Chennault, Louisiana, recently
reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 93
mph (150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
An unofficial observation of 948 mb (28.00 inches) was recently
measured in the eye of Laura.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...4-8 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12
inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi
Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the
central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270842
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 0600 UTC (1 am
CDT) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt, which is near the high
end of category 4 status. At the time of landfall, Laura was
a ferocious looking hurricane with a clear circular eye, an intense
eyewall, and tightly-coiled surrounding spiral bands. Since the
powerful hurricane has been inland for a few hours, there has been
some decrease in winds, and the estimated initial wind speed based
on Doppler radar data, surface observations, and guidance from an
inland decay model is 105 kt.

The hurricane is now moving northward with the initial motion
estimated to be 355/13 kt. Laura is expected to continue moving
northward through tonight, which should take the core of the system
across Louisiana and Arkansas. After that, Laura will likely
become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the much
weaker cyclone is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward
across the southeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday and
Saturday. By late in the weekend and early next week, Laura,
or its extratropical remnants, should accelerate northeastward
across the western Atlantic.

Now that Laura is inland, rapid weakening is forecast and it
will likely become a tropical storm later today and a tropical
depression on Friday. It should be noted that strong hurricanes
like Laura are not just coastal events. Even though Laura's
highest winds will decrease quickly as it treks inland, significant
impacts from heavy rains and strong wind gusts are likely through
at least tonight across portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. Some
strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected when the
storm moves over the Atlantic waters late this weekend and early
next week.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds will continue this morning in portions of
the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
near Laura's eyewall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging
wind gusts will continue to spread well inland into portions of
extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana through the day.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding
potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi,
lower Ohio, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270840
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH
ISLAND...TEXAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270755
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
300 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EYEWALL OF LAURA PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
ONGOING...

The eyewall of Laura will continue to move inland across
southwestern Louisiana during the next several hours. TAKE COVER
NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was
approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter.
Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

A National Ocean Service tide station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
observed a water level rise of 9.19 ft Mean Higher High Water
at 100 CDT.

In Lake Charles, Louisiana, the airport reported a sustained wind of
98 mph (158 km/h) with a gust to 132 mph (212 km/h) and a University
of Florida observing tower reported sustained winds of 95 mph (153
km/h) and a gust to 132 mph (2012 km/h) within the past couple of
hours.

A Weatherflow site in Cameron, Louisiana reported sustained wind of
92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 117 mph (188 km/h) in the southern
eyewall of Laura after the eye has passed overhead.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 93.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270655
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EYEWALL OF LAURA PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
ONGOING...

The eyewall of Laura will continue to move inland across
southwestern Louisiana during the next several hours. TAKE COVER
NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was
approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter.
Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

A National Ocean Service tide station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
observed a water level rise of 9.19 ft Mean Higher High Water
at 100 CDT.

The Lake Charles, Louisiana airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206 km/h).

A University of Florida observing tower near Lake Charles recently
reported a sustained wind of 86 mph (138 km/h) with a gust to 112
mph (180 km/h)

A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network site at Sabine Pass on the
Texas/Louisiana border recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph
(119 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (145 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 93.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270558
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from High Island westward to San Luis Pass,
Texas has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning southwest of San Luis Pass has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to High Island Texas
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), Doppler radar images indicate that the eye
of Hurricane Laura has made landfall at the coast near Cameron,
Louisiana, near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
should continue through the day. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the
forecast track, Laura will move inland across southwestern Louisiana
this morning, and then continue northward across the state through
this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over
Arkansas tonight, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and
the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Air Force reconnaissance and Doppler radar data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a
sustained wind of 101 mph (163 km/h) with a gust to 116 mph (187
km/h). A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a
sustained wind of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a wind gust of 127 mph (204
km/h) within the last hour. A wind gust of 104 mph (167 km/h) was
recently reported at Lake Charles, Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated the from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...3-6 ft
Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected overnight over Louisiana,
far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for
tornadoes will continue through the day across Louisiana, Arkansas,
and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270456
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF LAURA MOVING OVER CAMERON PARISH...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

The eyewall of Laura is moving onshore over southwestern Louisiana.
TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a sustained
wind of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 110 mph (177 km/h).

A HurrNet Station in Cameron recently reported a sustained wind of
74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h).

A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a wind
gust of 89 mph (132 km/h) within the last hour.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270354
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...EYEWALL OF LAURA NEARING COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...

A Weatherflow site at Cameron, Louisiana recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

Calcasieu Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80
km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 93.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270256 CCA
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

CORRECTED STATUS AT 12 HOURS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270255
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane
on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the
upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the
cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.
Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the
evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.
Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water,
no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center
crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins
to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland,
more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period,
the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some
baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the
U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western
side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is
about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a
weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day
or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the
east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official
track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from
far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 93.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270253
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Laura is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by early Thursday, and a northward
motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, Laura will make landfall along the southwest
Louisiana coast within the next few hours and move inland within
that area early Thursday. The center of Laura is forecast to move
over northwestern Louisiana on Thursday, across Arkansas Thursday
night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (80 km/h) were recently reported by a National Ocean Service
station at Texas Point, Texas, at Sabine Pass. A wind gust to 58
mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Cameron, Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter observations is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northward
within the warning areas overnight.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected tonight over Louisiana,
far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for
tornadoes will continue on Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and
western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270252
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270152
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
900 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at
Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270054
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...POSSIBLE TORNADOES OCCURRING IN LAURA'S OUTER BANDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...WINDS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM
AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 92.9 West. Laura is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a northward motion should continue
on Thursday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will approach the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this
evening and move inland within that area tonight. The center of
Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow,
across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Friday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches
the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is expected
after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently
reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread
northwestward within the warning areas this evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this evening through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 262253
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
600 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...600 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND STEADY HEAVY RAINS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...

Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) were recently reported at
Caillou Lake, Louisiana, and at Cypremort Point on Vermilion Bay,
Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 92.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 262156
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Low tide occurred along the northwestern Gulf coast within the past
hour, and water levels are expected to rise quickly through the
evening and overnight due to storm surge and the tide.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262051
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Laura has continued to rapidly strengthen today with recent
visible satellite imagery revealing a very distinct 25 nautical-
mile-wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast. The
upper-level outflow has also become well established in all
quadrants. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that
is still investigating the hurricane has reported peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 136 kt and SFMR winds of 121 kt in the
northeast eyewall. These data support an initial intensity of
125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The
minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye
is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and
will continue through landfall and beyond overnight.

Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the
northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear
around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall
replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this
evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid
weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the
hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or
its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the
weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will
re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States
east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast
period.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Laura is moving
northwestward at about 13 kt. Laura is nearing the western extent
of a mid-level ridge that is located over the southeastern United
States. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward this evening
and northward on Thursday between the ridge and a weak trough over
the south-central United States. By Friday the cyclone should turn
northeastward and then east-northeastward as it becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance continues to
be in good agreement through 72, but there are some forward speed
differences thereafter. The new NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 92.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...WIND AND WATER LEVELS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected tonight, and a northward
motion should continue on Thursday. A northeastward to east-
northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper Texas and southwest
Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within that area
tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern
Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible this evening before Laura
reaches the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is
expected after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread
northwestward within the warning areas this evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected late this afternoon
through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and
southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue
into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued between Public
advisories. These can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCUAT3.


$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262049
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 92.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 92.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 92.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 261954
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...300 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THIS EVENING...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...

Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Texas. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Sabine Pass, Texas,
recently reported about 2.3 feet of inundation above ground level.

The Eugene Island, Louisiana, NOS station recently measured
sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 261857
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...

Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, recently reported about 3.2 feet of inundation above
ground level.

The Eugene Island NOS station also recently measured sustained winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261515 CCA
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Corrected 24-h status in forecast table to inland.

Laura has become a very powerful hurricane this morning. The
satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye
becoming better defined, and cloud tops colder than -70C in the
surrounding ring of deep convection. Both NOAA and Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft have provided valuable data this morning.
The NOAA P-3 aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 125 kt at
8000 ft, and a peak SFMR wind of 104 kt, while the Air Force crew
has observed peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 121 kt and peak SFMR
winds of 104 kt. The lastest minimum pressure estimated from
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over
the past 12 hours. Based on the aircraft data, the initial wind
speed was increased to 100 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory,
and is now set at 110 kt based on the latest flight-level and SFMR
winds.

Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low. Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast, but given the
uncertainties at that time range the forecast continues to show it
as a post-tropical cyclone at days 4 and 5.

Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north are expected within the next 12-18
hours as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-
level ridge that extends from the western Atlantic into the
southeastern United States. This motion will bring the center of
Laura onshore in southwestern Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas
tonight. By Thursday night, Laura is forecast to turn northeastward,
and then east-northeastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical track models are in good
agreement, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast track
was required.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan
City, Louisiana, with catastrophic wind damage expected where
Laura's eyewall makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 27.0N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261515 CCA
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

CORRRECTED TO DENOTE INLAND AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 92.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion
should continue today, followed by a north-northwestward motion
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue
strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid
weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located
just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74
mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave
height of 37 feet (11 meters).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260858
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Satellite images indicate that Laura has become a formidable
hurricane since yesterday evening. Deep convection has intensified
and become more symmetric, with an eye now trying to clear out. An
earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found flight-level winds
of 104 kt, along with peak SFMR values of 86 kt, which supported the
90-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory. Since that time,
however, the cloud pattern has only continued to improve, so the
initial wind speed is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Notably, the
aircraft also recorded that the extent of the hurricane-force winds
have increased substantially northeast of the center. A pair of
Hurricane Hunter planes should be in the area within a couple of
hours.

The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24
hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear
remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central
Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the
new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are
even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly
weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps
the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will
weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring
hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and
eastern Texas. In the extended range, there is some chance that
Laura re-intensifies as a tropical cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, instead of becoming part of a frontal system, but for now
the forecast will stay extratropical at 96 hours and beyond.

Recent satellite shows that Laura has turned northwestward, now
estimated at 13 kt. There are no substantial changes to the track
forecast to report. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the
northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the
western periphery of a mid-level high. The models are in very good
agreement on the center of Laura moving into extreme southwestern
Louisiana or southeastern Texas in about 24 hours, so no changes
were made to the previous NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period
the weakened cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move
with increasing forward speed while embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted southward at
longer range, not too far from the latest consensus track model
predictions.

It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards,
it is just for the center uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is
expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas
inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge
could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline
in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Actions to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion as water levels
will begin to rise later today.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in the warning area
from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.1N 90.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260857
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Freeport to San Luis
Pass Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today, and a north-northwestward motion is
forecast tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the
Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on this evening and move
inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane today, and is expected to be a major
hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura
makes landfall.

Laura is becoming a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260856
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS
PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 90.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260554
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 90.2 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast later today, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana
coasts on Wednesday evening and move inland near those areas
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph
(165 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Laura is expected to be a
major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after
Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 55 miles (90 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico
recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to
78 mph (126 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-14 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible starting Wednesday evening
over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.
The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260250
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite
images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the
circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops
of -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming better
established over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to
near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane is
expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast,
with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in
strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the
official forecast. This is also between the simple and corrected
intensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidly
after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well
inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward
track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should gradually
turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a
weakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period
the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with
increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model
predictions.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h
is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and
dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including
areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,
as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across
far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to
minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260250
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 89.5 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas
and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday evening and move inland
near those areas Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph
(86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-14 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected
to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and
southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should
continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western
Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260249
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 89.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252349
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.0
North, longitude 89.0 West. Laura is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should
continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should
approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday
night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the
next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite imagery shows some changes in the convective pattern of
Laura since the last advisory. The ragged central dense overcast
seen earlier has been replaced by a curved convective band that
wraps almost all the way around a cloud-filled banding-type eve. One
possible reason for this change is that the imagery also suggests a
tongue of dry air is trying to entrain into the cyclone just west of
the central convection. Aircraft data received after the last
advisory did not show any fall in the central pressure, but did have
high enough flight-level and SFMR winds to justify nudging the
initial intensity up to 70 kt.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/15 kt. There is
no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The
hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge
over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break
in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and
the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic
pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward this evening, followed
by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane
making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper
Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new
forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h,
but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the
previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast
track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still
possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later
advisories. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the
westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the
mid-Atlantic States before reaching the Atlantic in about 120 h.

All indications are that the hurricane should steadily to rapidly
intensify during the next 24 h, with the only negative factor being
the possibility of more dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast
will go with the scenario that the dry air will not significantly
hinder strengthening. The global models are in good agreement that
Laura will encounter increasing southwesterly shear in the last 6-12
h before landfall, so the intensity forecast shows slower
strengthening during that time. With all that said, the landfall
intensity of 100 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. After
landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point, followed by
re-intensification through baroclinic energy as the cyclone becomes
extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h
is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and
dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including
areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion
this evening, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with
small streams overflowing their banks will increase due to heavy
rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas,
across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also result in minor to
isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will
spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 24.7N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...ON COAST
48H 27/1800Z 32.2N 93.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0600Z 34.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 38.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest
Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those
areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252039
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.8W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.2N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.7N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 38.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 88.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251741
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and
move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf
Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into
portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio
Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread
flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 91.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 28.6N 91.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 116.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 15.2N 116.7W 1005 23
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 15.2N 117.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.08.2020 24 15.9N 116.9W 1003 29
0000UTC 27.08.2020 36 16.2N 116.5W 1000 31
1200UTC 27.08.2020 48 16.6N 116.2W 999 34
0000UTC 28.08.2020 60 17.2N 116.0W 995 41
1200UTC 28.08.2020 72 17.8N 115.6W 992 43
0000UTC 29.08.2020 84 19.1N 116.4W 987 51
1200UTC 29.08.2020 96 20.0N 117.7W 983 53
0000UTC 30.08.2020 108 21.1N 119.5W 983 51
1200UTC 30.08.2020 120 21.6N 120.8W 985 48
0000UTC 31.08.2020 132 22.2N 121.2W 988 44
1200UTC 31.08.2020 144 22.9N 120.9W 992 43

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 106.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 17.4N 106.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 96.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 15.2N 96.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 85.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 23.3N 85.9W 993 52
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 24.6N 89.1W 986 50
1200UTC 26.08.2020 24 26.0N 91.9W 978 60
0000UTC 27.08.2020 36 27.8N 94.0W 969 69
1200UTC 27.08.2020 48 30.3N 94.6W 961 46
0000UTC 28.08.2020 60 33.4N 94.2W 977 36
1200UTC 28.08.2020 72 35.8N 92.8W 986 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 84 37.4N 90.0W 985 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 96 37.7N 84.4W 982 35
0000UTC 30.08.2020 108 37.2N 76.9W 988 36
1200UTC 30.08.2020 120 37.7N 70.1W 981 50
0000UTC 31.08.2020 132 39.7N 63.3W 967 63
1200UTC 31.08.2020 144 43.6N 54.1W 944 82


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251559

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251505
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better
organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central
dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high
as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data,
Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of
65 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The
hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge
over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break
in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and
the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic
pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a
turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday
night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making
landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas
coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast
track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the
previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance.
However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the
time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into
the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and
the mid-Atlantic States.

The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no
convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern
quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and
some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable
for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity
forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this
time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane
should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall,
although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are
unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h
point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the
storm becomes extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or
near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the
details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in
NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the
Gulf Coast.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied
by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth
of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur
Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in
effect and residents should follow any advice given by local
officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with
small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday
night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251457
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port
Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis
Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Freeport Texas to San Luis
Pass.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and
move inland near those area on Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf
Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into
portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio
Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread
flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251456
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING AREAS INSIDE THE PORT
ARTHUR HURRICANE FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS
PASS AND FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS
PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 100SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 87.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 251216
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
715 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT LAURA HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...

NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Laura has become
a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with
higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 715 AM CDT...1215 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250858
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite images show that Laura is becoming better organized. Now
that the center is clear from Cuba, very deep convection has
developed into a ragged, pulsing central dense overcast, with a
large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The
intensity is kept at 55 kt, matching the satellite estimates and a
blend of the earlier flight-level and SFMR reconnaissance data.
Hurricane Hunter missions from both the Air Force and NOAA should be
in the storm within a couple hours to help obtain a new estimate.

After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.

Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a
portion of that area later today.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with
small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday
night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250856
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from San Luis Pass to
Freeport Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile
Bridge to Key West has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane Warnings will likely to issued later this morning or
afternoon for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This
general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts
on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Laura is now expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Rainfall will be coming to an end across western Cuba Tuesday
morning with additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches possible.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected for the Dry Tortugas for
a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and
tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250856
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS
PASS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO
FREEPORT TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO KEY WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TO FREEPORT TEXAS
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY TO ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 85.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250557
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 85.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 765 MI...1165 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.0 West. While Laura
has recently taken a jog to the west, it is expected to move toward
the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) today with some decrease in
forward speed likely by this evening. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, and approach the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a
hurricane later today. Additional strengthening is forecast on
Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas for a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and
tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250245
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in
western Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt.
Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.
Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is now
coming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that
the storm has become better organized with deep convection
beginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstorms
on the south side. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and that
the winds are around 55 kt.

Laura continues to move fairly steadily to the west-northwest with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 290/17 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is generally unchanged from previous discussions.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward at about the same
forward speed through Tuesday as it remains in the flow on the
southwest side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S. This motion should cause
the system to make landfall in either southwestern Louisiana or the
Upper Texas coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. After
landfall, Laura is forecast to continue moving northward before
turning eastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. Although the global models are in
relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble
members, especially in the ECMWF. Therefore, confidence in the
track forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus aids.

The storm is starting to pull away from the western portion of Cuba,
and it should be over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for about 2
days. Since Laura will have a notable amount of time over waters
with high oceanic heat while moving through a low wind shear and
high moisture air mass, significant strengthening seems quite likely
until the storm makes landfall. The intensity models all show Laura
making landfall as a hurricane, but there are differences on exactly
how strong it will be. The NHC intensity forecast continues to
stay near the consensus aids, which usually perform best, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strengthen when it reaches the
coast.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains could
cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle Florida Keys has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is foreast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on
Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
LAURA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 82.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Ciego De Avila and Sancti Spiritus provinces.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 82.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf
of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late
Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center. A wind gust of
65 mph (105 km/h) was recently reported in Havana, Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches,
with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this
heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across
the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242045
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved
somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an
increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however,
indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and
the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown
the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east
and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks
an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been
able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The
aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003
mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous
advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low
vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The
latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models
continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the
Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once
an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is
again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope
while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane
strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these
solutions and is close to the consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over
the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next
day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over
the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western
portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward
and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After
landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S.
on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again
reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or
intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is
around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph.
In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and
hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause
mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH....
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Port Bolivar to
San Luis Pass Texas and from Morgan City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and
Las Tunas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 82.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will cross western Cuba this evening and move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night
and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches,
with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this
heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across
the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242044
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO
OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS AND LAKE BORGNE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO
SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS AND FROM MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND
LAS TUNAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 82.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241744
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR CAYO LARGO CUBA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 81.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana,
Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the
southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but
strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico. Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with
additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center. An elevated
observing site at Sand Key located south of Key West, Florida, has
recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). A wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h) has been observed at Santa Clara, Cuba, within the
past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through today:

Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells
are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of
Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 241440
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Laura's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since
yesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convection
near the center, and a large band over the southern periphery of
the circulation. It appears that the combination of land
interaction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air has
caused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50
kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt.

Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme
northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today,
and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves
over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then
forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight
where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable
upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady
strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite
bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate
significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The
statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is
in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie
between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance.

Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over the
past day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The
deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading through
Tuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the
south-central United States should produce a break in the ridge over
the western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestward
Tuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the storm
is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night.
The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve to
the northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period.
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and
these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry
Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.

2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north-
central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches
will likely be issued later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 21.2N 80.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA, THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 80.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, and
Granma.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana,
Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 80.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continued through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of
the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is
expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and
Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional
strengthening forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through today:

Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern and central Cuba, and the Bahamas. These swells
are expected to spread across western Cuba and the Florida Keys
today. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 241439
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND
GRANMA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. NORTHWEST GULF COAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 80.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241155
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND LAURA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA....


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 79.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the
possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240857
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Satellite data indicate that Laura has moved back over the warm
waters of the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. Modest northerly vertical
wind shear has kept the bulk of the deep convection displaced into
the southern semicircle of Laura's circulation. Earlier ASCAT-B/-C
scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small
circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature
is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in
response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over
Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura.
The initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt based on 43-46 kt
wind vectors located just offshore southeastern Cuba that were
present in the aforementioned ASCAT data, and allowing for some
undersampling by the scatterometer instrument.

The initial motion estimate is 290/18 kt. The deep-layer
Bermuda-Azores ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by all
of the models to build and expand westward across the Bahamas,
Florida, and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the
new few days. This dominant steering flow pattern is expected to
keep Laura moving west-northwestward just offshore the southern
coast of Cuba today, followed by the cyclone emerging over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. By late Tuesday and early
Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough located over the
south-central U.S. is forecast to pinch off and dig southwestward
and merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Marco over the western
Gulf of Mexico, eroding the western extent of the ridge in the
process. This is expected to cause Laura to slow down and gradually
turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf
coast by late Wednesday and early Thursday. The latest NHC model
guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing synoptic
pattern, and the official forecast is similar to but slightly left
or south of the previous advisory track to account for the expected
northerly to northeasterly wind shear keeping the convection and
low-level center displaced to the south for the next 24 hours or so.
On the forecast track, Laura is expected to remain just offshore the
southern Cuba today, move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday
morning, and approach the U..S northwest Gulf coast area Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

Since Laura's center is expected to remain over water just south of
Cuba, there is the possibility that some slight strengthening could
occur today or tonight before the cyclone reaches the Gulf of Mexico
in 24 hours. After that, Laura will be moving over the very warm
and deep waters of Gulf Stream and Loop Current located over the
southeastern Gulf, which could trigger a brief period of rapid
intensification. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the
statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the
cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. In contrast, the HRWF and
HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours.
Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near
31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36
hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more
toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity
forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global
model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the
intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and
these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry
Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.

2. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 20.8N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the middle and lower
Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to Key West.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S.
northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the
possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within
the warning area in the Florida middle and Lower Keys and the Dry
Tortugas this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
NORTHWEST GULF COAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 78.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 78.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 78.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA MOVING BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 78.0 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Tuesday. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their
banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this
region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
westward within the warning area in Cuba through today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman
Brac, and the Dry Tortugas today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240254 CCA
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE DRY TORTUGAS FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...
FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas,
Florida.

The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for all of Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura
is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura
is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1
to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their
banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this
region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman
Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240245
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that Laura
continues to gradually become better organized. Convection is
quite deep on the south side of the circulation, and rainfall is
likely very heavy over portions of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A
surface observation from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, measured sustained
winds of 52 kt with a wind gust to 63 kt a few hours ago. Based on
this observation and the system's improved structure, the initial
intensity is nudged up to 55 kt.

Laura continues to move swiftly to the west-northwest on the south
side of a strong subtropical ridge, with the initial motion
estimated to be 285/18 kt.  The subtropical high is expected to
expand westward during the next couple of days, and that should keep
Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba
through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday.  The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is
likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of
the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that. The details
of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to
figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall.
However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models
and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear
exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur. The NHC
track forecast is little changed from earlier and near the
consensus aids. This forecast shows landfall along the northern
Gulf coast in about 3 days.

The tropical storm is expected to move very near or over the entire
island of Cuba through Monday, and the interaction with the island
should limit strengthening during that time. However, significant
intensification is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico due to a combination of favorable conditions of low wind
shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope. Although not explicitly forecast, Laura
could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane
strength.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica
through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and
life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas on Monday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower
Florida Keys on Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.1N 76.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
12H 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas,
Florida.

The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for all of Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura
is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura
is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1
to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their
banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this
region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman
Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240244
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...
FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232351
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA, HAITI, AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 75.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Inagua and the Ragged Islands in the southeastern
Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 75.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over the southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura
is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday. However,
strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An observation in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently
measured sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust to 44
mph (71 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000
mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and
Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232113 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Corrected rainfall statement

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and
Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 232055
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Satellite imagery and radar data from eastern Cuba show that the
center of Laura has been moving over water between Haiti and eastern
Cuba this afternoon. There has been a recent uptick in convection
near the center and the radar imagery has shown an increase in
banding. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Laura
this afternoon has reported a minimum pressure that has fallen to
around 1000 mb, and winds to support an intensity of 50 kt. The
plane very recently found a small area of stronger flight-level
winds, but these winds may be associated with mesocyclone, and not
representative of the large scale circulation.

Laura continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. The
track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a
deep-layer ridge that is forecast to build westward across Florida
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The track
guidance has continued to edge southward for the portion of the
forecast near Cuba, and the NHC forecast has again been moved in
that direction. Laura should continue moving west-northwestward
over the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday, but a turn toward the
northwest is expected Tuesday night as the cyclone nears the western
portion of the ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion
should then continue around the western portion of the ridge until
the cyclone reaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The latest run of
the ECMWF has shifted significantly eastward, however its ensemble
mean and many of the stronger ensemble members remain farther west
as a stronger cyclone is likely to be steered more westward by the
deep-layer ridge. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF remain close to the
previous NHC track, so little change was made to the official
forecast was made after 48 hours.

The intensity forecast during the next 24 hours is highly dependent
on the track and the amount of interaction Laura has with Cuba. If
the storm stays along the southern coast or just offshore, the
environment of warm water and low vertical wind shear could allow
for some slight strengthening, but little overall change in
intensity is indicated during the next 24 hours. After the center
clears western Cuba, the upper-level wind pattern is predicted to
quite favorable while the storm traverses the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all
indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura
could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane
strength.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecast at the longer range as winds, storm
surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy
rainfall is likely across Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica through Monday
and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower
Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas on Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232055
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232054
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG
KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE HAITI
* INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...
ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W...NEAR CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W...NEAR CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231740
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican
Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of
the Dominican Republic east of Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to
the border with Haiti
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over
the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch
area tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 140.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 13.0N 140.4W 1008 20
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 13.3N 140.3W 1008 22
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 14.2N 139.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 14.4N 138.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 14.2N 138.3W 1005 29
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 13.7N 138.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 13.3N 139.4W 1007 23
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 12.9N 140.2W 1007 22
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 15.4N 109.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 14.3N 95.6W 1008 21
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 24.5N 87.0W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 25.5N 88.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 27.3N 89.6W 1006 27
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 28.1N 91.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 28.3N 93.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.2N 115.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 15.2N 115.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 15.3N 114.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 16.6N 113.2W 1001 34
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 18.1N 112.3W 998 33
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 18.9N 113.4W 997 30
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 19.8N 114.6W 995 33
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 20.5N 116.3W 993 41
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 21.1N 118.3W 992 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 21.6N 120.5W 992 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 231601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 140.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 13.0N 140.4W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2020 13.3N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 14.2N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 14.4N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 14.2N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 13.7N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 13.3N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2020 12.9N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 15.4N 109.3W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 14.3N 95.6W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 24.5N 87.0W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2020 25.5N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 27.3N 89.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 28.1N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.3N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 19.4N 72.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2020 19.9N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 21.3N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 22.8N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 24.1N 87.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.08.2020 25.6N 90.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2020 27.5N 92.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.08.2020 29.7N 93.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.08.2020 32.4N 93.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.08.2020 34.7N 93.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2020 36.5N 91.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 37.6N 88.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2020 38.3N 82.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.2N 115.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2020 15.2N 115.3W WEAK
00UTC 26.08.2020 15.3N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 16.6N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2020 18.1N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2020 18.9N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2020 19.8N 114.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 20.5N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 21.1N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2020 21.6N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231601

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 231524
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1125 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020

The Tropical Storm Warning along the northern coast of Haiti has
been extended southward and eastward to include the entire coast
of Haiti.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 231454
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the
south and southeast of the estimated center location. The center
has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions
seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface
observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast
of Haiti. Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a
tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of
Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the
initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. Little change in strength
is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over
Cuba. When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be
conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from
its trek over land, deepening is anticipated. Warm water and a very
favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady
intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and
with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the
system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below.
The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP
corrected consensus models.

Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it
passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward
at about 18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western
Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the
next couple of days. The track guidance has continued to nudge
southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast
has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the
southern coast of Cuba. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern
should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it
approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is
expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery of
the ridge. The dynamical models have trended toward stronger
ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in
the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at
72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are
reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast
at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required,
and storm hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern
Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across
these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas
and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on
Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and
wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of
the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous
weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in
the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress
of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the
northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast
while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the
storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 231453
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W...NEAR CUBA
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 73.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 72.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola this morning,
be near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 36 to
48 hours while Laura moves over or near Hispaniola and Cuba.
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Laura has maintained an impressive convective pattern despite the
center being located over extreme south-central Dominican Republic.
Numerous cloud tops of -85C to -90C have been noted over the
Barahona peninsula, an indication that extremely heavy rainfall has
been occurring there. The center of Laura passed over or very near
Santo Domingo around 0430Z based on a noticeable wind shift that
was measured at the international airport. Laura's outflow pattern
has also continue to improve in all quadrants. The initial intensity
of 40 kt is based on earlier scatterometer and aircraft data, along
with surface observations along the north coast of the Dominican
Republic.

Laura has continued to move west-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 285/16 kt. There has been a significant
westward shift in the latest NHC model guidance, which appears to be
due to most of the global models taking the center of Laura farther
south over central or southern Hispaniola rather than emerging it
off the north coast of Haiti like the GFS is and has been
forecasting. Given that the most intense convection has persisted
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, that is where the most
likely area that a low-level and/or mid-level circulation is most
probable to develop or persist. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution
similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the
new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the
consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the
north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based
observed satellite trends since the previous advisory.

Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to
Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba
during the the next 36 hours, with the strongest wind likely
remaining over water in the northeast quadrant where the pressure
gradient will be the tightest between the cyclone and the Bermuda
High. By 48 hours and continuing until landfall, Laura is forecast
to remain in a low shear and very favorable upper-level outflow
environment while passing of extremely warm SSTs near 31C. This
should allow for significant strengthening to occur once the cyclone
regains a decent inner core after exiting Cuba. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the intensity forecasts by the GFS
and ECMWF global models and the corrected consensus models HCCA and
FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is
likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible the central Bahamas and
Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on
Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.8N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230858
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND
ARTEMISA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W...OVER WATER WINDWARD PASSAGE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W...INLAND WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W...OVER WATER SE GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 70.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230618 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020

Corrected location in summary section

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 70.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located by surface observations over southern Dominican Republic
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 70.1 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be near or
over Cuba Sunday night and Monday, and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and
Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding
is still possible in Puerto Rico today.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas
and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230610 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020

Corrected location in summary section

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 70.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located by surface observations over southern Dominican Republic
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 70.1 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be near or
over Cuba Sunday night and Monday, and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and
Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding
is still possible in Puerto Rico today.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas
and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 70.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located by surface observations over southern Dominican Republic
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 70.1 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be near or
over Cuba Sunday night and Monday, and over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and
Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding
is still possible in Puerto Rico today.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas
and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is now located near the eastern portion of the Dominican
Republic, and it is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over much of Hispaniola and adjacent areas. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying in the tropical storm this
evening and have found winds to support maintaining the initial
intensity of 45 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggests that
the pressure has fallen a little to 1003 mb, and that the center is
still quite elongated.

Laura is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is generally unchanged from earlier. A subtropical high
pressure system is expected to build westward during the next few
days, which should continue to steer Laura generally
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace. This track should take
the storm across Hispaniola tonight and early Sunday and then across
Cuba late Sunday and Monday. Laura is then expected to emerge over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will likely turn northwestward
and slow down some as it reaches the western side of the ridge. The
models are in fair agreement that Laura will generally follow a
similar path to Marco when it nears the northern Gulf coast in 3 to
4 days. There has been little change in the guidance this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
This forecast is near the typically reliable TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids.

Since the tropical storm is expected to track across the
mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 36
to 48 hours, little change in intensity seems like a good bet during
that time period. However, after the storm pulls away from the
islands and moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters while being
in low wind shear and high moisture conditions, strengthening seems
very likely. Most of the better-performing intensity models show
Laura making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast as a
hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
higher than the previous one, and it lies roughly near the middle
of the guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
central and western Cuba, the central Bahamas and Andros Island
Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a
this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola
tonight and early Sunday, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday,
and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and
Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Puerto Rico: An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 8 inches, is possible before
the rain diminishes overnight.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230242
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA
HABANA...ARTEMISA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO IS
STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 69.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 69.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 69.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222347
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
following provinces: Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola
tonight and early Sunday, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba.
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern
slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These
swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and
the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222052
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of
Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These
winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within
the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity
of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler
velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the
center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no
additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when
the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm
waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow
aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the
possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf,
this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem
likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the
north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should
have much of an influence on the latter system.

Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions,
and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about
280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern
side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the
southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of
the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the
track guidance suite.

Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas and Andros Island Sunday night and Monday, and in
the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf
Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged
period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be
affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to
the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA HEADED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...CONTINUES TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Andros Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.
Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed there
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or
over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48
hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some
strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico
recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind
gust to 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern
slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night and
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba,
much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222051
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA.
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221754
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS NEAR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de
Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor
the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional
watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern
Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the
Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this afternoon, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and
tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. A Weatherflow observing site at Las Mareas, on
the south coast of Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h), but these winds appear
to be associated with a small-scale circulation and are not
representative of the larger-scale wind field. Some additional
strengthening is possible until the center moves over Hispaniola
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221601
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45
mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly
in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 142.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 0 10.6N 142.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 12 11.7N 141.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 23.08.2020 24 12.5N 141.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.08.2020 36 13.0N 140.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 24.08.2020 48 13.8N 139.9W 1004 29
0000UTC 25.08.2020 60 14.0N 139.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 25.08.2020 72 13.5N 139.2W 1005 30
0000UTC 26.08.2020 84 13.2N 139.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 26.08.2020 96 13.1N 139.4W 1006 23
0000UTC 27.08.2020 108 13.3N 139.7W 1006 22
1200UTC 27.08.2020 120 13.0N 140.4W 1006 21
0000UTC 28.08.2020 132 13.0N 141.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.08.2020 144 12.8N 142.4W 1007 23

TROPICAL STORM MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 0 19.9N 85.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 23.08.2020 12 21.9N 86.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 23.08.2020 24 23.3N 87.8W 1005 28
0000UTC 24.08.2020 36 25.0N 88.4W 1005 28
1200UTC 24.08.2020 48 27.2N 89.5W 1006 30
0000UTC 25.08.2020 60 28.7N 90.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 25.08.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 0 18.7N 65.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 23.08.2020 12 18.0N 69.4W 1007 31
1200UTC 23.08.2020 24 19.7N 73.4W 1005 35
0000UTC 24.08.2020 36 19.7N 76.8W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 48 21.1N 80.9W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 60 22.5N 84.2W 998 41
1200UTC 25.08.2020 72 23.9N 87.4W 993 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 84 25.3N 90.2W 986 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 96 26.7N 92.4W 977 63
0000UTC 27.08.2020 108 28.3N 93.7W 963 73
1200UTC 27.08.2020 120 30.6N 93.7W 963 50
0000UTC 28.08.2020 132 33.7N 92.6W 970 38
1200UTC 28.08.2020 144 36.3N 90.8W 972 51

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.5N 119.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 36 14.5N 119.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 24.08.2020 48 14.4N 117.7W 1004 29
0000UTC 25.08.2020 60 15.0N 117.0W 1003 25
1200UTC 25.08.2020 72 15.6N 117.4W 1003 26
0000UTC 26.08.2020 84 15.7N 118.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 26.08.2020 96 16.1N 118.1W 1001 28
0000UTC 27.08.2020 108 16.7N 117.7W 1000 29
1200UTC 27.08.2020 120 17.2N 117.2W 1000 29
0000UTC 28.08.2020 132 18.0N 117.2W 998 34
1200UTC 28.08.2020 144 18.6N 118.3W 996 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.4N 94.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2020 144 15.4N 94.9W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221600

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 142.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 10.6N 142.2W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 11.7N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 12.5N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 13.0N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 13.8N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 14.0N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 13.5N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 13.2N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 13.1N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2020 13.3N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2020 13.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2020 13.0N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 12.8N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 19.9N 85.5W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.9N 86.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 23.3N 87.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 25.0N 88.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 27.2N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 28.7N 90.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 18.7N 65.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 18.0N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 19.7N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 19.7N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 21.1N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 22.5N 84.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 23.9N 87.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.08.2020 25.3N 90.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2020 26.7N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2020 28.3N 93.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.08.2020 30.6N 93.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2020 33.7N 92.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2020 36.3N 90.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.5N 119.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2020 14.5N 119.0W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2020 14.4N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 15.0N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 15.6N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 15.7N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 16.1N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2020 16.7N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2020 17.2N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2020 18.0N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 18.6N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.4N 94.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2020 15.4N 94.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221600

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221452
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud
pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that
the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar
shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar
also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial
intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in
previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent
on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one,
moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the
next couple of days which should limit intensification at least
through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico,
warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to
become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast
is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of
small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the
northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected
to be significant. This could change in the coming days however.

The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near
280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official
track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally
west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high
pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should
turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the
high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the
dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as
the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are
significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and
beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range
track of Laura.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is
likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and
urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding
possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern
and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to
the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and
Granma.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for St. Maarten, St.
Martin, St. Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de
Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor
the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional
watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern
Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the
Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico
this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight,
and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station located at Isla Culebrita
recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Another
Weatherflow station at Sandy Point on the Island of St. Croix
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221441
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GRANMA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GRANMA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 66.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221147
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 66.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of
central and eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico
this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight,
and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220926 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Corrected status at 96 and 120 h

Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico
indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin
Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters.
Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the
center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined
circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite
large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating
around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data
suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge
over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand
westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the
next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward
toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast.
While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general
scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The
track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end
of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models
have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the
Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating
factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco,
although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will
stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then
it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track
lies near the various consensus models.

Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined
with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm
should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center
over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at
least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new
intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should
allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much
of the guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern
and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220923 CCA
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CORRECTED STATUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220906
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico
indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin
Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters.
Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the
center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined
circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite
large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating
around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data
suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge
over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand
westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the
next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward
toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast.
While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general
scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The
track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end
of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models
have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the
Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating
factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco,
although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will
stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then
it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track
lies near the various consensus models.

Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined
with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm
should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center
over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at
least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new
intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should
allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much
of the guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern
and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220855
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED LAURA OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 65.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of
central and eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning,
near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over
eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220558
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED LAURA APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
central Bahamas.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and
Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.4 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a
generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Virgin
Islands during the next several hours, near or over Puerto Rico
later today, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and
and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220254
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Laura remains quite disorganized this evening. Although satellite
and radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and to
the east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-level
center is located well to the west of the main area of deep
convection. This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is still
not vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear. The
initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most of
the strongest winds are well north and east of the center.

The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established.
A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is
expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days.
This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near
Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and
Monday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western end
of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn
toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are
still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but
important track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more
southern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the
period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm
Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico,
however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain
at this time.

Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, some
of the models do show Laura becoming better organized this
weekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear and
very warm waters. However, there is significant uncertainty on how
much the circulation will interact with the rugged islands of
Hispaniola and Cuba. If the storm is able to stay north of those
islands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by the
HWRF and HMON models. However, if the storm moves over the
islands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes through
that area. The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very
track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal. Given
that the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast shows
less strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged at
the longer forecast times.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220252
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LAURA QUITE DISORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
central Bahamas.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and
Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a
generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and
near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220252
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 63.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212355
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 62.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...415 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands
tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the
northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and
early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212125 CCB
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected formatting and initial intensity

A poorly-defined convective band has become evident over the
southeastern portion of the circulation. However, there is little
or no deep convection near the estimated center. Overall, the
system's cloud pattern still has a ragged appearance. Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and the current
intensity is held at 40 knots based on continuity from Hurricane
Hunter observations from earlier today. There is a fairly
well-defined upper-level outflow pattern at this time, but an
upper-level trough to the west of Laura could be an impediment to
future strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus mainly due to the influences of the
land masses of the Greater Antilles. At days 4-5, the intensity
forecast is also a bit below the consensus due to uncertainties at
these longer forecast ranges.

The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar
images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed much from the previous
advisory package. Laura should move generally west-northwestward
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge for about the
next 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward as it begins to move around the
western side of the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward
at days 4-5 and so has the official forecast, which is mostly close
to the model consensus, but not quite as far west as that guidance
in the latter part of the forecast period.

Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Laura shortly.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
through Saturday, Tropical Storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from
Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas
beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban
flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over Portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212123 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected formatting and initial intensity

A poorly-defined convective band has become evident over the
southeastern portion of the circulation. However, there is little
or no deep convection near the estimated center. Overall, the
system's cloud pattern still has a ragged appearance. Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and the current
intensity is held at 40 knots based on continuity from Hurricane
Hunter observations from earlier today. There is a fairly
well-defined upper-level outflow pattern at this time, but an
upper-level trough to the west of Laura could be an impediment to
future strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus mainly due to the influences of the
land masses of the Greater Antilles. At days 4-5, the intensity
forecast is also a bit below the consensus due to uncertainties at
these longer forecast ranges.

The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar
images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed much from the previous
advisory package. Laura should move generally west-northwestward
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge for about the
next 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward as it begins to move around the
western side of the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward
at days 4-5 and so has the official forecast, which is mostly close
to the model consensus, but not quite as far west as that guidance
in the latter part of the forecast period.

Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Laura shortly.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
through Saturday, Tropical Storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from
Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas
beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban
flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over Portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 61.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border
with the Dominican republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 61.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today,
near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern
coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 212050
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER
WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211736
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today,
near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern
coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211515 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected to include Montserrat in the Tropical Storm Warning

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat, and the
British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Cabron to the border with Haiti.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with
the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later
today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the
northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211514 CCA
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MONTSERRAT IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT AND
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER
WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA AND MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211456
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system
this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near
40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane
Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat
to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized
than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding
features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the
southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls
for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the
intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much
interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the
northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the
system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The
official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus
except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these
uncertainties.

With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain
but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly
west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure
system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period,
the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves
around the western periphery of the high. The official track
forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is
on the northern side of the guidance suite.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy
rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical
Storm Watches are in effect.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and the British
Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Cabron to the border with Haiti.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with
the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later
today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the
northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211454
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER
WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211147 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen
Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected latitude in summary block

...DEPRESSION NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of those areas
later today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas
should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as
well as an increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may
overflow their banks.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211137
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...DEPRESSION NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9 59.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of those areas
later today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas
should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as
well as an increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may
overflow their banks.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210849
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Tropical Depression Thirteen remains very disorganized this morning.
The associated convection is elongated from northwest to southeast,
and the low-level center is located near the northwestern end of the
convective area. Additionally, satellite imagery and model analyses
indicate that the mid-level center is located several hundred miles
to the southeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft and
scatterometer data suggested the possibility that the system was an
open wave. However, the currently available data is ambiguous on
whether the system still has a closed circulation, so it will be
maintained as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains
30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast philosophy through about 96 h.
A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain
north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After that, the ridge
weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical
Depression Thirteen may interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen,
which is also forecast to be in the Gulf by that time, with the
result of these things being a turn toward the northwest or
north-northwest. The track guidance has shifted southward since the
last advisory, with the UKMET shifting far enough to the south that
it takes the system over the Caribbean south of Cuba. The new
forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous
track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the
various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF model
from 24-72 h.

The intensity forecast remains low confidence. The separation
between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly
shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant
strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so. The dynamical
models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned
around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish. However, the
system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near
Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track.
The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally
favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The possibilities range from the
system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to
a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it
lies a little below the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands later today
through Saturday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 17.8N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 58.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, as well as
for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later
today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should
also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph
(33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an
increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may overflow their
banks.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210848
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER
TODAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 58.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 57.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 57.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall associated with the depression may cause mudslides
on sensitive slopes and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.
Over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic, and
Haiti, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5
inches are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210249
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the
circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable
information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are
primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface
circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the
plane couldn't locate a definite center, there's enough uncertainty
and curvature in the plane's wind field data to hold onto the
system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should
be in the area around 1200 UTC. A late-arriving scatterometer pass
confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum
winds.

The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain
north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend,
the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to
depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance
has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by
the GFS and HWRF models. I'm not inclined to make significant
changes since the models are about to ingest the information from
the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the
center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south
and west, north of much of the guidance.

The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the
next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that
there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in
nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax
late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor
agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event.
In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially
mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity
forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the
previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both
the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 56.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 56.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near
or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and
near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall associated with the depression may cause mudslides
on sensitive slopes and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.
Over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic, and
Haiti, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5
inches are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210248
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 56.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 56.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 56.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202345
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...INITIAL REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 55.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical
Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude
55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the
next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to
move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday,
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and
near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 202053
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence
of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area
of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of
circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation.
The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the
earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite
imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The
cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to
build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week.
This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next
several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be
agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast
is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP
corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should
be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization,
there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts
in the track forecast.

Although the depression has changed little in strength since it
formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system
favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain
over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind
shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable
upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater
Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land
interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty.
The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of
strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the
latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and
intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202052
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 53.9W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 202052
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 53.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201806
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 175.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP902020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 0 9.9N 175.1W 1010 19
0000UTC 21.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 79.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 0 16.1N 79.8W 1009 27
0000UTC 21.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 0 22.8N 111.2W 978 61
0000UTC 21.08.2020 12 23.9N 113.0W 986 49
1200UTC 21.08.2020 24 24.8N 114.6W 991 44
0000UTC 22.08.2020 36 26.6N 116.3W 999 31
1200UTC 22.08.2020 48 27.8N 118.9W 1003 24
0000UTC 23.08.2020 60 29.0N 121.1W 1006 23
1200UTC 23.08.2020 72 29.2N 122.7W 1007 22
0000UTC 24.08.2020 84 29.5N 123.3W 1008 20
1200UTC 24.08.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 51.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 0 16.0N 51.5W 1012 26
0000UTC 21.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.2N 142.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2020 36 11.2N 142.3W 1007 21
1200UTC 22.08.2020 48 11.9N 142.1W 1006 22
0000UTC 23.08.2020 60 12.5N 143.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 23.08.2020 72 13.0N 144.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 24.08.2020 84 13.9N 144.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 24.08.2020 96 14.7N 145.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 25.08.2020 108 15.3N 146.0W 1002 38
1200UTC 25.08.2020 120 15.7N 147.4W 999 38
0000UTC 26.08.2020 132 15.8N 148.8W 999 41
1200UTC 26.08.2020 144 15.5N 150.3W 1003 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.0N 65.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 48 18.0N 65.5W 1009 28
0000UTC 23.08.2020 60 19.2N 68.6W 1008 30
1200UTC 23.08.2020 72 20.6N 72.7W 1007 32
0000UTC 24.08.2020 84 21.6N 76.6W 1005 34
1200UTC 24.08.2020 96 23.3N 80.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 25.08.2020 108 25.1N 83.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 25.08.2020 120 28.1N 86.0W 1002 41
0000UTC 26.08.2020 132 31.1N 87.0W 998 29
1200UTC 26.08.2020 144 32.6N 86.6W 1000 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.5N 86.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 48 19.5N 86.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 23.08.2020 60 20.5N 87.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 23.08.2020 72 22.2N 88.6W 1005 30
0000UTC 24.08.2020 84 23.8N 89.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 24.08.2020 96 26.1N 90.2W 1003 31
0000UTC 25.08.2020 108 27.7N 91.5W 1003 35
1200UTC 25.08.2020 120 28.0N 92.6W 1004 27
0000UTC 26.08.2020 132 28.1N 92.4W 1004 21
1200UTC 26.08.2020 144 28.2N 92.0W 1005 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.5N 116.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 84 14.5N 116.2W 1004 32
1200UTC 24.08.2020 96 16.2N 114.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 25.08.2020 108 17.2N 115.8W 1001 27
1200UTC 25.08.2020 120 17.2N 116.3W 1000 29
0000UTC 26.08.2020 132 17.8N 117.5W 998 32
1200UTC 26.08.2020 144 18.2N 119.0W 997 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 175.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP902020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2020 9.9N 175.1W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 79.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2020 16.1N 79.8W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2020 22.8N 111.2W STRONG
00UTC 21.08.2020 23.9N 113.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2020 24.8N 114.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2020 26.6N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2020 27.8N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2020 29.0N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 29.2N 122.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 29.5N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 51.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2020 16.0N 51.5W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.2N 142.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2020 11.2N 142.3W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2020 11.9N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 12.5N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 13.0N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 13.9N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 14.7N 145.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 15.3N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 15.7N 147.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 15.8N 148.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 15.5N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.0N 65.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 18.0N 65.5W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 19.2N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 20.6N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 21.6N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 23.3N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 25.1N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.1N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 31.1N 87.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 32.6N 86.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.5N 86.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 19.5N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 20.5N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.2N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 23.8N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 26.1N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 27.7N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.0N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 28.1N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 28.2N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.5N 116.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2020 14.5N 116.2W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2020 16.2N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 17.2N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 17.2N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 17.8N 117.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 18.2N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201601

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 201452
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

The organization of the depression has not changed much overnight
or this morning. An area of convection has persisted near the
estimated center, with some banding noted over the northwestern
portion of the circulation. An earlier SSMIS overpass was very
helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small
circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a
small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with
winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center. The
ASCAT data along with subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and
SAB support maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity.

The depression continues to move briskly west-northwestward or
290/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from
before. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast
to build westward and strengthen over the next several days. This
pattern is expected to keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward
heading throughout the forecast period. The dynamical models
continue to agree on this overall scenario, but there some
differences in both forward speed and how close it gets to the
Greater Antilles. In general, the models that indicate a stronger
cyclone favor a more northern track, while those which depicted a
weaker system are along the southern and faster side of the
envelope. The latest consensus aids are little north of the
previous track, and the new NHC forecast lies between the HFIP
corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is
slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS
ensemble mean.

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern
Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 201450
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 52.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 52.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 52.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 50.9W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten as issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 50.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200924
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 49.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200901
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Tropical
Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of
ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated
center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern
semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have
changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity
remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to
the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and
this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through
the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between
the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the
Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted
a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new
forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus
models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the
cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or
over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h.

Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to
moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian
models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the
cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola,
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week.
Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.2N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200900
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200548
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 49.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas
on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 49.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm by later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200437 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

Corrected date in rainfall statement

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas
on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200252
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of
circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be
classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the
2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some
banding features on its north and west sides as evident in
geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a
T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB.

The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest,
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should
be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that
the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently
over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the
next several days and should be the primary steering feature for
the depression through the forecast period. This pattern should
keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during
the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern
Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles
and southeastern Bahamas this weekend. The models are in fairly
good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS
being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle
of the guidance suite.

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the
depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain
relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in
a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual
strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a
tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how
much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the
depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope,
further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction.
Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of
these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for
more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which
is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands tomorrow.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola,
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week.
Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas
on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Friday night
over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200250
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE
AREAS ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 47.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>