Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARCO-20
in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250839
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Marco has been devoid of any significant convection for at least
12 hours, and ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data around 0239Z
suggested that Marco might have degenerated in a north-to-south
elongated trough. Based on this information, Marco has been
downgraded to post-tropical remnant low. Brisk southwesterly
vertical wind shear of 30 kt is forecast to increase to near 35 kt
in 24 hours, which should prevent the redevelopment of deep
convection near the center.

Marco's remnants are expected to move generally westward along or
just south of the southern coast of Louisiana for the next 24 hours
or until dissipation occurs.

This is the last forecast/advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Marco. Additional information on this system can be found
in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 28.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250839
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco
was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next day or so. On the forecast track, Marco should continue moving
westward just offshore the coast of Louisiana until the system
dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco
is forecast to dissipate by early Wednesday, if not sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells and rip currents affecting the north-central Gulf
coast will gradually subside today. Please consult products from
your local weather service office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Marco. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250839
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 91.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 91.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 91.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS MARCO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250231
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Marco Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Visible imagery and surface observations indicated that Marco made
landfall around 6 pm CDT near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Shortly before landfall, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane indicated that Marco was still producing a small area
of tropical-storm-force winds over water to the northeast of its
center. Since then, the system has moved almost due west along the
southeast coast of Louisiana while its deep convection has become
farther displaced from the low-level center. Between the lack of
central convection and Marco's proximity to land, it is likely that
the winds have decreased since earlier this evening and the
intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.

If deep convection does not redevelop overnight, Marco will become a
remnant low as soon as Tuesday morning. Regardless of its status,
Marco should move generally westward near the coast of Louisiana
while it weakens for the next day or so and could continue to
produce heavy rain for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight. The system is then forecast to dissipate by early
Wednesday, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 29.0N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 29.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 29.0N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Marco Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Marco
was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving westward near the coast of Louisiana
for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Marco is
forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. The system is then
forecast to dissipate by early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with additional isolated totals of 5
inches across portions of the north-central Gulf coast and
Southeastern United States through Wednesday. Rain totals related
to Marco near Apalachicola, Florida reached as high as 11.81 inches
on Sunday per a CoCoRaHS report. The additional rainfall may result
in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same
area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast overnight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two remains possible overnight across
the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, far southern Alabama, and
far southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250230
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 93.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 89.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 242301
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
600 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT...

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that
Marco made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River around
600 PM CDT. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
indicate that Marco is producing a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds over water to the northeast of the
center. These winds will likely subside during the next few hours as
Marco moves along the coast of Louisiana. Heavy rain will continue
along portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through tonight.

The estimated minimum pressure at the time of landfall was 1006 mb
(29.71 inches).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 242046
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

There has been little change to the structure of Marco over the past
few hours, with the deep convection and associated heavy rainfall
being sheared well to the northeast of the exposed center of
circulation. Based on earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
scatterometer data, there was a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds in the strongest convection located about 50-75 n
mi offshore of the northern Gulf coast. Since the shower and
thunderstorm activity is persisting, it is assumed that these winds
are still occurring in that offshore area and the initial intensity
is being held at 35 kt.

The exposed vortex should continue to spin down as the center of the
cyclone reaches the southeastern Louisiana coast late this evening,
which would result in the coastal areas being spared from
experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The
official NHC forecast shows Marco weakening to a tropical
depression tonight, which is in agreement with the model guidance.
Strong vertical wind shear should strip away any remaining
convection associated with Marco at some point tonight, as indicated
by GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. When the convection
does diminish, most of the model guidance does not show any
significant new convection developing thereafter. So it is
anticipated that Marco will degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday.

Marco's initial motion is northwest at 6 kt. As the cyclone
continues to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, a turn to the
west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the
low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one, and is near the TVCN consensus track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this
evening. For information on these hazards see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of
the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been
issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 29.0N 88.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242046
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 88.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this
evening. For information on these hazards see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been issued for
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast for Tropical Storm Laura.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 88.9 West. Marco is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), a turn to the
west-northwest and a slight increase in forward speed is expected
to occur tonight. On the forecast track, Marco will move inland
over southeastern Louisiana tonight, and across southern Louisiana
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a
tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station located
on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to
38 mph (61 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the
coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through
this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with additional isolated totals of 7
inches across portions of the north-central Gulf coast and
southeastern United States through Wednesday. Rain totals related
to Marco near Apalachicola, Florida reached as high as 11.81 inches
on Sunday per a CoCoRaHS report. The additional rainfall may result
in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same
area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon
through tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, far
southern Alabama, and far southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 242046
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 88.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 241756
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Special Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Marco continues to weaken as the deep convection has been stripped
away from the center since this morning. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system has
reported peak 925 mb flight level winds of 38 kt. Although
there have been a few recent higher SFMR measurements that are due
to rain contamination, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed only
a small area of 30-35 kt winds. Based on these data the initial
intensity is being lowered to 35 kt and a special advisory has been
issued to update the short-term intensity forecast and discontinue
warnings for the Gulf coast.

The showers and thunderstorms generating the tropical storm force
winds to the northeast of Marco's center are forecast by most
models to gradually dissipate through this evening. Based on how
quickly the vortex has been spinning down and the anticipated
decrease of convection, it is reasonable to assume that sustained
tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf
coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast
associated with Marco have been discontinued. Shortly after the
cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast later tonight it should degenerate to
a remnant low, with this low dissipating inland within a couple of
days. The latest intensity forecast was adjusted downward through 12
h, but remains the same as the previous NHC forecast thereafter.

Marco has been moving slowly all day, and an initial motion
estimate is now 320/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track
reasoning. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerates to a
remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system
becomes steered in the low level flow. The latest forecast track
was adjusted slightly northward through 12 h, but remains the same
as the previous one until the system dissipates.

This special advisory package replaces the 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC)
intermediate public advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this
evening. For information on these hazards see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches
and warnings could be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf
Coast later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 28.7N 88.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Special Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO WEAKENS...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning for the U.S.
Gulf Coast have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this
evening. For information on these hazards see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches or warnings are likely to
be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today for
Tropical Storm Laura.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 88.6 West. Marco is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this motion
should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days.

Aircraft and satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a
tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the northeast of the center over water. A National Ocean
Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi
recently reported a wind gust to 35 mph (58 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by aircraft
reconnaissance is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the
coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through
this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the same area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight
across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama,
and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 241754
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST LATER TODAY FOR
TROPICAL STORM LAURA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 88.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 241445
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Strong southwesterly shear is taking its toll on Marco, with the
edge of the nearest deep convection now displaced 50 n mi northeast
of the exposed circulation center. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the system this morning
measured 45-kt surface winds with the onboard SFMR instrument in
that convection, but winds of only 20 to 30 kt were measured
between this thunderstorm activity and the cyclone's center.
Sampling by the aircraft has also revealed that winds of tropical
storm force are likely no longer occurring in any portion of the
circulation except in that convection. Based on the SFMR data, the
initial intensity is initialized at 45 kt.

The shear is not forecast to abate in the foreseeable future, and
the simulated satellite imagery in the GFS and ECMWF suggests that
Marco will degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The latest NHC
forecast is near the various consensus aids, which shows the cyclone
weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Based on the
updated intensity forecast, tropical storm conditions are no longer
expected to be produced by Marco over the central portions of the
Louisiana coast, and the Tropical Storm Warnings for those
locations have been discontinued.

Marco has slowed down and has moved a little to the right of the
forecast track over the past few hours, with an initial motion of
NNW/7 kt. The track guidance for the entire forecast period has
shifted back northward, and is just south of where it was this time
yesterday. The official forecast track was adjusted eastward in the
near term to accommodate the recent right-of-track bias. After 12
h, the track forecast lies between the previous one and most of the
consensus track guidance. On this track, Marco is expected to move
inland tonight, and remain inland when the system turns
west-northwestward in the low-level flow by Tuesday morning.


Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning
later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given
by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 28.5N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 88.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 88.5 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to
the west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this
motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Marco is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression tonight, and degenerate to a remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this
afternoon in portions of the warning area.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the same area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight
across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama,
and southern Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 241441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY...LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 88.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...MARCO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Marco is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is
forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then
turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through
Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is
forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and
dissipate on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this
afternoon in portions of the warning area.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from
southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240858
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Marco is clearly weakening tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission showed that flight-level and SFMR had
decreased along with a substantial rise in central pressure. In
addition, GOES-16 1-min satellite data show the surface center well
displaced from the deep convection, and it appears that Marco is
decoupling from its mid-level circulation to the northeast. The
initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, and that could be generous.

Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering
the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant
chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane
warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings.
Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the
intensity forecast has been decreased as well, and is fairly
consistent with the model consensus and almost every model.

Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The
storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern
Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge.
Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the
Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has
come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or
just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged
southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest
rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so
users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone.


Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning
later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given
by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and
from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida
border have been discontinued.

All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.2 West. Marco is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is
forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and
then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana
through Tuesday night.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to
become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this
afternoon in portions of the warning area.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from
southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL STORM SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.2W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.2W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240549
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...A WEAKER MARCO CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 87.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude
27.2 North, longitude 87.9 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
is expected later this morning. Marco is forecast to approach the
coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move
near or over the coast through Tuesday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24
hours, but Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, primarily in gusts, are still possible
within the hurricane warning area by midday, with tropical
storm conditions likely by midday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area by the afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas
late today.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240304 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Corrected Rainfall statement in Hazards section.

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude
26.8 North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
north-northwestward motion is possible tonight, but a turn toward
the northwest is expected by Monday morning. Marco is forecast to
approach the coast of Louisiana by Monday afternoon, and then turn
westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but
Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
likely by midday Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle Monday and Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240256
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The
center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective
canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has
moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane
indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds
were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt.
Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is
probably generous.

The intensity guidance remains maddeningly inconsistent. The most
recent runs of the HWRF and HMON show that there is still a chance
that Marco could reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, despite the
shear. While this seems unlikely given the current structure of the
cyclone, it also seems slightly premature to rule it out entirely.
After all, the shear lessened enough to allow Marco to briefly
strengthen after it was strongly sheared for a time last night. The
rest of the guidance shows Marco weakening further as it approaches
the coast, and this seems like a more likely solution. The NHC
forecast just holds Marco at 60 kt for the next 24 h, but its
certainly possible it could already be weaker than that. Rapid
weakening is likely by 36 h if it hasn't happened sooner and Marco
is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday.

Marco's track is tied entirely to its intensity and structure. Once
Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is
not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches
the coast and the system never makes landfall. However, as long as
the strong southwesterly upper-level flow contributes to the
steering, Marco will continue to move more northward to
north-northwestward. Due to the recent northward movement of Marco's
center, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction,
but it is blended to the previous forecast by about 36 h and
onward. Confidence in this forecast unfortunately remains low since
the model spread remains usually high.

It is worth noting that Marco is a small tropical cyclone. The large
area of Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches and warnings along the
northern Gulf Coast is a reflection of the unusually high
uncertainty in the forecast, and it is unlikely that all of those
regions will experience tropical-storm-force winds or
life-threatening storm surge associated with Marco. However, impacts
will likely occur in some portions of the watch/warning area
beginning on Monday, and heavy rain is likely across most of the
region during the next couple of days. Changes to the watches and
warnings are likely on Monday and users should consult products from
their local weather forecast office for more information about
potential hazards in their area.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning
on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given
by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.8N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude
26.8 North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
north-northwestward motion is possible tonight, but a turn toward
the northwest is expected by Monday morning. Marco is forecast to
approach the coast of Louisiana by Monday afternoon, and then turn
westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but
Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
likely by midday Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle Monday and Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240251
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY
HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 87.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 26.4
North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is forecast to move
generally north-northwestward to northwestward tonight and approach
the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon. It is then forecast to turn
westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Small fluctuations in strength are possible tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Marco could become a
remnant low by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across
the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast. Isolated tornadoes are possible
across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama,
and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 232054
TCDAT4

Hurricane Marco Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Shortly after the 10 AM CDT advisory was issued, the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Marco measured SFMR
winds of 65 to 69 kt for several minutes. A dropsonde around the
same time also measured winds equivalent to 64 kt at the surface.
Based on these data, it was evident that Marco had strengthened
into a hurricane. Since that time, the convective pattern has
changed little, and the final leg of the aircraft mission did
not reveal any notable changes to the cyclone's intensity.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is
also in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from
SAB.

Marco continues to move north-northwest at around 11 kt. Model
guidance is in good agreement on a north-northwest and then
northwest motion into Monday morning as Marco nears the northern
Gulf coast. However, there has been a major shift in the track
guidance beyond Monday morning, and the majority of the forecast
models now keep Marco offshore of the northern Gulf coast for the
next few days rather than moving it inland over Louisiana Monday
afternoon. Since this shift was so abrupt, I would rather split the
difference between the previous official forecast track and the
latest consensus tracks until another round of model runs can
confirm this new suggested track is higher confidence. Based on this
shift in track, tropical storm conditions are expected farther west
along the Louisiana coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana. It should be noted
that if the trend in the models are correct, some of the impacts
over portions of the north-central Gulf coast could be lessened.

The current shear analysis from UW-CIMSS shows that Marco is
experiencing about 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear, yet Marco has
been able to slowly strengthen in this environment today, likely
due to the presence of very warm waters and plenty of atmospheric
moisture. By late tonight and through Monday, the SHIPS guidance
suggests this shear will increase to over 30 kt. This should limit
any further intensification, and could cause Marco to weaken before
it nears the northern Gulf coast Monday afternoon. By Monday night,
the shear is forecast to increase to close to 40 kt, which should
strip the convection away from the center of the cyclone, causing it
to weaken. After 48 h, Marco is now expected to become a remnant low
devoid of deep convection. The official NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance
through 24 h.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 27.1N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 28.5N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1800Z 29.8N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0600Z 29.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 26/1800Z 29.7N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marco Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cameron to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Marco is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), a turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight followed by a turn to the
west-northwest by Monday night. On the forecast track, Marco will
be near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and move near or
over the coast through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change is strength is expected over the next 24 h.
Gradual weakening is expected thereafter, and Marco could become a
remnant low by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across
the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast. Isolated tornadoes are possible
across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama,
and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 232053
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON TO
WEST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.1N 88.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 89.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.8N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.9N 95.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.7N 96.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 87.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HURRICANE MARCO CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. Marco is moving
toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, Marco will cross the
central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern
Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after
Marco moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100
miles (160 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday
morning near the southeast Louisiana coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 231629
TCUAT4

Hurricane Marco Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 87.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 231457
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Deep convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 degrees C has
persisted over the center of Marco for the past several hours. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating
the cyclone measured winds equivalent to 62 kt both with the SFMR
and in a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall. However, the
aircraft reported peak 850-mb flight level winds of only 64 kt.
Based on a blend of these data it appears that Marco is on the cusp
of becoming a hurricane, but is not quite there yet. Therefore, the
initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Based on the SHIPS guidance, Marco has about a 12-24 hour window to
intensify in an environment characterized by moderate southwesterly
shear, very warm waters, and plenty of atmospheric moisture. After
that time, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and this
should begin to dominate the cyclone's environment. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, forecasting
Marco to become a hurricane later today, and maintaining hurricane
intensity up until landfall in agreement with the latest LGEM
intensity guidance. While it is possible that Marco will weaken just
prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little
difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

Marco is moving north-northwestward or 340/12 kt. Although the
overall guidance has not changed much since the previous advisory,
there remains considerable spread in this guidance by the time Marco
reaches the northern Gulf coast. This spread could be attributed to
the varying ways the models handle the system as it encounters the
more hostile environment near the coast. Since the track consensus
aids have changed little through 36 h, the official forecast is
essentially the same as the previous one through that time. The
model guidance has shifted a little northward beyond 36 h, so the
official forecast was nudged to the north during that time as well.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have
been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice
given by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 24.7N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 26.4N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 29.5N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0000Z 31.2N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AS IT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 87.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn
to the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, Marco will cross
the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern
Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with
a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to
become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is
expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 231457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING
MOBILE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 88.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 87.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central
Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on
Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to
become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is
expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 230858
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Thunderstorm bursts continue to fire near the center of Marco, then
weaken an hour or two later due to persistent shear. Overall, the
storm's appearance hasn't changed with nearly all of the deep
convection very near or northeast of the center. Although the
satellite presentation is somewhat lacking at the moment, the
earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found believable
SFMR values to 60 kt, so that value remains the initial wind speed.

The intensity forecast remains tricky with Marco due to its small
size and marginal environment. There are some models that briefly
relax the shear today, which will likely be enough of a change to
allow Marco to reach hurricane strength. Later on, while the
cyclone is near the coast of Louisiana, the shear is forecast to
increase, but it is unknown exactly how close to landfall this will
occur. Our best forecast at this time is that the strongest winds
will be confined to the coast, and that Marco will then weaken
faster than most hurricanes do over the swamps of Louisiana due to
the shear. No significant changes were made to the intensity
forecast, which is very close to the model consensus. The new
forecast necessitates the issuance of hurricane warnings for
portions of southeastern Louisiana.

Marco continues moving north-northwestward or 335/11 kt. This
general track and speed is likely today, with a turn to the
northwest and decrease in forward speed expected as the storm
weakens late Monday. While the track forecast is essentially
unchanged from the previous one, there is still a fair bit of
spread in the model guidance, likely tied to the intensity
forecast. The stronger guidance is near or northeast of the new
model consensus, due to the upper-level flow, and the NHC forecast
leans in that direction, close to the previous official prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have
been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice
given by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 23.7N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 27.3N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 29.0N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 29.9N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1800Z 30.5N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0600Z 31.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 230856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Morgan City Louisiana
to Ocean Springs Mississippi.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Morgan City to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Louisiana for Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

The Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the
Mississippi/Alabama border has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the province
of Pinar del Rio Cuba for Marco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central
Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on
Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to
become a hurricane today. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is
expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sabine Pass to Morgan City...2-4 ft
Morgan City to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning watch area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 230855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM
MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA FOR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA FOR MARCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR....
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* OCEAN SPRINGS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN, LAKE MAUREPAS, AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 88.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 89.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.5N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 87.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 230548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 86.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 86.6 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central
Gulf of Mexico today and will approach the northern Gulf Coast on
Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco
is forecast to become a hurricane today. Marco is expected to be at
or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area in Cuba through the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible

Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of
5 inches.

This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along
the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 141.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2020 0 11.6N 141.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 23.08.2020 12 12.8N 141.1W 1007 22
0000UTC 24.08.2020 24 13.3N 140.2W 1006 24
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 14.3N 139.7W 1004 29
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 14.4N 139.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 13.9N 139.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 13.5N 140.1W 1006 25
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 13.0N 140.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 12.8N 141.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 27.08.2020 108 12.2N 142.5W 1006 22
0000UTC 28.08.2020 120 11.9N 143.2W 1006 21
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 11.9N 143.7W 1006 22
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 12.0N 144.6W 1006 24

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2020 0 18.0N 69.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2020 12 19.5N 73.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 24.08.2020 24 20.4N 76.6W 1003 39
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 21.3N 80.5W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 22.6N 83.7W 999 41
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 24.1N 87.0W 994 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 25.3N 90.0W 986 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 26.6N 92.6W 969 70
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 28.1N 94.5W 950 82
1200UTC 27.08.2020 108 30.3N 94.9W 960 47
0000UTC 28.08.2020 120 33.1N 94.4W 972 40
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 35.6N 93.2W 981 33
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 36.6N 90.7W 984 35

TROPICAL STORM MARCO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 86.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2020 0 22.2N 86.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 23.08.2020 12 23.6N 88.1W 1007 29
0000UTC 24.08.2020 24 25.2N 88.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 26.6N 90.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.2N 116.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 14.2N 116.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 15.0N 115.4W 1003 26
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 15.8N 116.1W 1002 29
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 16.1N 116.7W 1000 29
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 16.5N 117.2W 998 31
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 17.1N 117.6W 995 40
1200UTC 27.08.2020 108 17.2N 117.9W 991 46
0000UTC 28.08.2020 120 17.4N 117.8W 988 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 17.8N 117.9W 986 48
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 18.6N 118.6W 981 59

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.2N 97.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 15.2N 97.5W 1003 31
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 16.1N 99.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 16.2N 100.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 16.3N 101.6W 1002 31
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.0N 95.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 16.0N 95.0W 1003 32
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 19.0N 102.6W 1002 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230400

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 230245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Marco has taken on distinctly sheared appearance. Reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane, microwave imagery, and
radar imagery from Cuba all indicate that deep convection is limited
to the east side of the tropical storm and that it no longer has a
nearly closed eyewall. The degradation of Marco's structure appears
to be primarily due to strong upper-level southwesterly flow.
Despite the shear, the plane still measured SFMR winds near 55 kt
and the intensity is held at that value.

Marco is a small tropical storm and will be susceptible to rapid
changes in structure and intensity until it reaches the northern
Gulf Coast. Such systems are often not very resilient in a
high-shear environment, however even a brief relaxation of the shear
could result in quick strengthening. It would not be surprising if
Marco's intensity evolves in step-wise fashion consisting of periods
of arrested development followed by fast strengthening if/when the
shear relaxes. While the statistical models still show Marco
becoming a hurricane within 24 h, the run-to-run consistency of the
dynamical guidance remains poor. The latest HWRF, HMON and GFS
forecasts show Marco weakening as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast, and this remains a distinct possibility if the shear remains
consistently high. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed
substantially, in large part due to the low confidence of the
forecast, and is consequently above all of the guidance at 36 and 48
h when Marco is forecast to be near the northern Gulf Coast.
Additional adjustments to the forecast are likely on Sunday.

In sharp contrast to earlier today, no large changes were made to
the track forecast, though that should not be interpreted as an
increase in forecast confidence. Marco is forecast to move
north-northwestward and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
As it moves inland and weakens, a turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is anticipated. This turn could occur before or after
Marco moves inland, and will be tied in part to exactly when Marco
begins to weaken since a stronger, deeper storm should continue to
feel the affects of the upper-level southwesterly flow and move
farther north while a weaker system will be steered westward by a
low- to mid-level ridge extending over the southeastern US. The NHC
forecast is nearly on top of the multi-model consensus, but the
spread in the guidance is still higher than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme
western Cuba for a few more hours. Heavy rainfall is also expected
overnight in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana
Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in
flash flooding.

2. Marco is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on
Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued.
Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local
government officials.

3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 22.8N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 24.3N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 28.3N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 29.6N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0000Z 30.9N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 230244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 86.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 86.3 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and will approach the northern Gulf Coast
on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is
forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Marco is expected to be at
or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area in Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible

Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of
5 inches.

This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along
the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 230243
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 86.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 86.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 87.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 88.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.6N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.9N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 222347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.0 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is expected to continue
moving toward the north-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday and is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast on
Monday. After moving inland, Marco is expected to slow down and turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday,
moving across southern Louisiana and east Texas.

Maximum sustained winds based on preliminary data from the
reconnaissance aircraft are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Marco is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday.
Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast to
occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunter plane was 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area in Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
1 to 3 inches.

Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of
5 inches.

This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along
the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 222055
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the
model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this
afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data
collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment
around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key
role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z
models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual
track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some
of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast
anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the
volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being
said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly
eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern
Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by
the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN
multi-model consensus. After Marco reaches the coast, the western
Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward and should cause the
cyclone to move more slowly toward the west-northwest across
southern portions of Louisiana.

As far as the intensity is concerned, the last fix made by this
morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had
leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was
measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban
radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held
at 55 kt. Marco is beginning to move into a zone of moderate
southwesterly shear, but otherwise favorable conditions of warm
ocean water and some upper-level divergence are expected to foster
strengthening during the next day or so. With the exception of the
HWRF, the other intensity models show Marco reaching hurricane
strength, and the NHC foreast continues to show that possibility
while Marco moves over the central Gulf. The shear is still
expected to strengthen in 36-48 hours when the system is approaching
the northern Gulf Coast, but with the shift in the forecast track,
now there may not be enough time for Marco to weaken below
hurricane intensity before it reaches land. The new NHC intensity
forecast is near or just above the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble models and holds Marco as a hurricane until it reaches
the coast.

The forecast track changes now bring tropical storm force winds to
the coast in 36-48 hours, which necessitates the issuance of
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for a portion of the northern
Gulf Coast. These watches will likely need to be upgraded to
warnings later tonight.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme
western Cuba through this evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected
in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and
Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash
flooding.

2. Marco is expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a
hurricane on Monday. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf
Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches
have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice
given by local government officials.

3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that could be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 21.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON THE COAST
60H 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 222054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...BIG CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST FOR MARCO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass eastward to
the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Intracoastal City Louisiana
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Alabama/Florida border.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the northeastern Yucatan coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the
central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the
northern Gulf coast on Monday. After moving inland, Marco is
expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and
west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern
Louisiana into east Texas.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Marco is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Sunday.
Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast
to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area in Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
1 to 3 inches.

Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of
5 inches.

This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along
the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 222054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS EASTWARD TO
THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 85.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221736
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO'S CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 ENE OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6-12 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas should monitor
the progress of Marco. Watches will likely be required for a
portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A
gradual turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected to
begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, Marco's center will move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico by this evening. Marco will then move across the central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and approach the central and northwestern
Gulf coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Marco is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
also still possible today within the warning area along the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible, across the eastern
portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and
across far western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 221454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Reconnaissance data, geostationary and microwave satellite imagery,
and radar data from Cuba all indicate that Marco is strengthening
quickly this morning. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 69 kt, and there were
several SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt to the northeast of the
center. These data support raising Marco's initial intensity to 55
kt, and the central pressure based on dropsonde data has fallen to
992 mb. The crew on the plane reported the formation of a partial
eyewall, which agrees with what we've seen on recent microwave and
radar images.

The track forecast has been complicated by the fact that the plane
has fixed Marco's center to the east of the previous forecast
track, and that makes the current motion north-northwestward, or
340/10 kt. The subtropical ridge currently located over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to build westward along the
northern Gulf Coast during the next few days, and this expanding
ridge is expected to push Marco northwestward and then eventually
westward while the cyclone moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This
general thinking has not changed, but the adjusted initial position
ended up shifting the track guidance to the north and east on this
cycle. In response, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
eastward and northward during the first 3 days and is generally
between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Marco has finally tapped into the favorable conditions over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone's overall small size and
small radius of maximum winds makes it susceptible to quick changes
in intensity. The tropical storm is just beginning to move into a
higher zone of shear to its north, but conditions should remain
conducive enough for Marco to intensity to a hurricane during the
next 24 hours. After that time, southwesterly shear is expected to
increase over 20 kt by day 2 and then over 30 kt by day 3, and those
conditions, along with the cyclone's small size, should cause
weakening as Marco gets closer to the central and northwestern Gulf
coast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased during
the first 2 days and lies above the HCCA/Florida State
Superensemble solutions but below the SHIPS/LGEM scenarios. The
intensity forecast comes back in line with the previous forecast by
day 3 during the expected weakening phase, and Marco is ultimately
expected to dissipate over Texas by the end of the forecast period.

The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required
for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today.

Key Messages:

1. Marco is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, and tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in extreme western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also
expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana
Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in
flash flooding.

2. Marco is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane Sunday and approach the central Gulf Coast on Monday.
There is an increasing risk of impacts from storm surge, winds, and
heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana early next
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Marco, as
storm surge, tropical storm, and/or hurricane watches could be
issued later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Yucatan coast south of
Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12-24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas should monitor
the progress of Marco. Watches will likely be required for a
portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.3 West. Marco is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A gradual turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected to begin Sunday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. On the forecast
track, Marco's center will move through the Yucatan Channel into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by this evening. Marco will then
move across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and approach the
central and northwestern Gulf coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane later
today. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are also still
possible today within the warning area along the northeastern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible, across the eastern
portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and
across far western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 221454
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
* CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARCO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARCO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the eastern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach
the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and
move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on
Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf
coast Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula,
and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Marco's center moved just to the west of NOAA buoy
42056, which recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)
and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western
Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 220850
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

SFMR data from the last leg of the 53rd Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicated a couple of 48-50 kt winds, but
were associated with a significant spike in the rainfall rate.
Additionally, the flight-level winds were only 36 kt in that area
and the central pressure has increased a little to 1005 mb. The
cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours with deep
convection developing near the center and spiral bands forming over
the eastern portion of cyclone. Based on a blend the hurricane
hunter data and current subjective satellite intensity estimates,
the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt.

Although the UW-CIMSS shear product and global models indicate a
favorable upper wind pattern, GOES-16 sounder analysis data show a
higher than normal vertically stable environment in the western
Caribbean. This negative contribution maybe what's hampering
significant development. Consequently, as shown in the previous
advisory, only modest strengthening is indicated in the NHC
forecast through 48 hours. Only the Decay SHIPS and LGEM intensity
models indicate that Marco will become a hurricane in a couple of
days. Both the HMON and HWRF have backed off of showing a
hurricane in the Gulf. Afterward, increasing west-southwesterly
shear should lead to weakening as the cyclone turns toward the
northwestern Gulf coast. The NHC forecast lies between the higher
LGEM/Decay SHIPS solution and the lower NOAA HCCA intensity model
which indicates a peak intensity of 55 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 335/10
kt. Marco is being steered toward the northwest by a mid- to
upper-level cut-off low and associated trough extending into the
southwestern Gulf from the Mississippi Valley. By Sunday, the
aforementioned feature is forecast to lift northeastward allowing
the subtropical ridge to build back over the central gulf. This
should cause Marco to turn northwestward and west-northwestward
early next week toward the the northwestern Gulf coast.
Large-scale guidance generally agree that any binary direct or
indirect interaction, while both systems are in the gulf and at
near equal latitude, is unlikely at this point. The official track
forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous advisory
and lies just to the left of the various multi-model consensus aids.

The 34 kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the aircraft
reconnaissance data and a 0224 UTC scatterometer pass.



Key Messages:

1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning
are in effect for portions of that region.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening
is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system
approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too
soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the
system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast,
and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress
of this system over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 19.6N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 22.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 25.7N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 27.3N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 28.3N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 29.1N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/0600Z 29.6N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the
northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and
move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf
on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern
Gulf coast Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be
near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western
Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 220849
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 87.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 88.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 89.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 91.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.3N 93.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 29.1N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220604 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

CORRECTED LATITUDE IN DISCUSSION

...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly
slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so,
followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will then cross
the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and move over
the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco
could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by 53rd Air Force Reserve
reconnaissane aircraft observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220558
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly
slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so,
followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will then cross
the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and move over
the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco
could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by 53rd Air Force Reserve
reconnaissane aircraft observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by this evening.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 220254
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the
system over the northwest Caribbean during the past few hours. The
plane reported a number of unflagged SFMR winds between 35 and 40 kt
and max flight level winds of 41 kt. A blend of these data supports
an intensity of 35 kt, and therefore, this system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Marco. Deep convection has increased
near and to the east of Marco's center during the past few hours.
Although there still isn't much evidence of inner-core banding, the
data from the plane does indicate that the center of Marco has
become better defined since the afternoon and that the minimum
pressure has dropped.

Unfortunately the intensity forecast has not become any clearer and
confidence in that aspect of the forecast is quite low. Marco is
embedded within an environment that could support a fast rate of
strengthening. However, recent microwave data does not indicate that
the system has developed an inner-core, and only gradual
strengthening is likely until it does. The intensity guidance spread
is quite high, with the GFS and ECMWF global models both showing
little further strengthening, while the HMON regional model rapidly
makes Marco a hurricane before it reaches the northeast tip of the
Yucatan peninsula. That possibility can not be ruled out, but a
majority of the intensity guidance favors the weaker solution of the
global models. Even with the HMON outlier included, the NHC
intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Once Marco moves
over the central Gulf of Mexico, a rapid increase in wind shear
associated with an upper-level trough should limit the potential for
further strengthening, and weakening is still anticipated before
Marco nears the northern Gulf Coast, as shown in the previous
official forecast.

Confidence in the track forecast is also lower than normal, as the
models spread remains quite high. Only small adjustments were made
to the NHC forecast which heavily favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions
on the left side of the track guidance. It is worth noting that the
NHC track forecast is near middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles.
Marco is currently forecast to move northwestward toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico for the
next day or two, before the ridge builds and turns the tropical
cyclone farther west. Near the end of the period, Marco's track and
intensity could be also influenced by Tropical Storm Laura which is
also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of
that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Given the high
uncertainty in the forecast, larger than normal changes could be
required to future advisories.


Key Messages:

1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning
are in effect for portions of that region.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening
is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system
approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too
soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the
system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast,
and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress
of this system over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 18.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 84.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.9 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly
slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so,
followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then
cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night
and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern
Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula
and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter plane.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 220250
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 84.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 212354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an
increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the
northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight
or early Saturday. The system could be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional
strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over
the central Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter plane is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 212041
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 84.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 84.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 85.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 85.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.9N 88.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 84.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 212041
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Since this morning's advisory, the low-level swirl on which the Air
Force reconnaissance plane made its last fix has apparently become
the new center of circulation of the depression. A little bit of
deep convection has developed over this new center during the past
few hours, but on the whole there is very little convective activity
in the central region of the circulation. The strongest and most
persistent convection is located within a band that extends across
the Cayman Islands toward western Cuba. An ASCAT pass from this
morning showed winds of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the new center,
so 30 kt remains the initial intensity on this advisory.

It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to
develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear
environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected
to continue for the next few days, intensification is still
indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of
strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches
the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the
center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show
the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including
the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the
NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official
forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to
mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4.

Now that there is more confidence in the initial position, the new
motion estimate is a little to the right from before, but still
toward the northwest, or 325/11 kt. A deep-layer trough over the
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to be shoved aside by the Atlantic
subtropical ridge building westward over the next 2 days. Even
with this pattern change, the cyclone is expected to move generally
northwestward for the entire 5-day forecast period. However, there
has been a notable westward bend in some of the track models,
(particularly the GFS and ECMWF) from days 3-5, which is likely
due those models having a weaker cyclone steered more by the
low-level ridge at that time. Since the NHC intensity forecast is
mirroring this particular model trend, the track forecast has been
shifted westward from the previous prediction on days 4 and 5
toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The track forecast is still of
rather low confidence, with the spread among the model guidance
being larger than normal at every forecast time period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be
near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch
and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that
region.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening
is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the
system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is
still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts
the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf
Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the
progress of this system over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.6N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 22.9N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 24.6N 90.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 28.5N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 30.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 212041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
north of Cancun to Dzilam to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center
will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the
northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is
forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf
of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM THE HONDURAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move
away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center
will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the
northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some
weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as
it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday
night and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands
of Honduras today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 211456
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the
depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes
that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely
multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A
well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become
apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the
aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can
be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center.
Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate
that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still
lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the
north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast.

The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the
southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward
a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward
motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period,
with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone
approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a
bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast
is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After
that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC
forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to
the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios.

The structure of the depression aside, the environment still
appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently
less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48
hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official
forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the
upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF
solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After
some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification
is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2
and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone
could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA,
HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of
30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and
the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity
guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the
southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This
forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to
continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple
of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to
diminish today.

2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to
be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch
and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that
region.

3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will
produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system
over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 84.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula north and west of Cancun to
Dzilam.

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua
border westward to Punta Castilla.

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 84.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The
center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf
of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some
weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday
as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday
night and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands
of Honduras today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 211455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO
DZILAM.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning.
A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at
least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will
move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to
cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some
weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday
night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves
offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 210844
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft
reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is
not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple
swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent
strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest
sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this
advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of
the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A
53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this
morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the
depression's location.

Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours,
especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual
strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east
side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time,
some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the
peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the
southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen
through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are
indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone
enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from
reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the
forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar
to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a
compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally
northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the
atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida
and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general
motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern
Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that
both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing
some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems
are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression
Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.

The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of
the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA
consensus solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane
strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late
Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in
effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will
produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system
over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 210843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 83.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning.
A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or
just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is
then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some
weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday
as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 210843
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 83.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 210543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning.
A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or
just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is
then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 210258
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed
near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level
circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of
the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the
cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the
very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the
north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at
4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed,
which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical
storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection
becomes more persistent.

The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also
slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has
required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the
next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no
longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or
Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC
forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track
due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida
and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is
expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward
direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern
Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track
lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the
middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the
NOAA-HCCA corrected model.

Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center
and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as
much as previously expected, which has significant implications in
the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach
hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side
of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast
in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan,
followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures
along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C
and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt
through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive
outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By
120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical
wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which
would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those
models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt
well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has
resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to
but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land
interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near
or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm
Warning are in effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it
will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of
this system over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 210253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through
Friday morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through
at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system
will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and
northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and
approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on
Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan
Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The
system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on
Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 210253
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO CANCUN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 82.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 202345
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (29 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion
continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the system will move near or over extreme northern
Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on
Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.
The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area
during the day on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 202057
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
system found an area of lighter winds--likely where the center would
be--farther south than previous estimates. The highest flight-level
wind measured by the aircraft was 30 kt at an altitude of 2500 feet,
and although there were some SFMR measurements over 40 kt, these
looked coincident with some heavy rain rates and thus are probably
not reliable. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
Structurally, the depression has a large cloud envelope with
sporadic convective cells located in loose bands.

The updated initial position derived from the aircraft data
indicates that the current motion is still westward, or 270/16 kt.
This southward adjustment really only affected the first 36 hours
or so of the forecast, with NHC's official track forecast being
shifted southward during that period. This ends up taking the
cyclone's center over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras in 12-24 hours. After 36 hours, model guidance remains in
good agreement that the system should turn northwestward due to a
deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The new set of model
guidance has not shifted much from the previous cycle, and the NHC
track forecast is very close to the morning forecast despite the
initial position adjustment, with perhaps a slight eastward shift
on days 4 and 5. In general, the NHC forecast is closest to the
GFS and HCCA model solutions.

The depression's farther-south position makes the intensity
forecast more complicated with potentially more land interaction
with parts of Central America. Slight strengthening to tropical
storm strength is expected before the center reaches Honduras and
Nicaragua, with little change thereafter until the center
re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras. Low shear and warm sea
surface temperatures should then support further intensification up
until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Since there is significant
uncertainty in how land interaction will affect the cyclone's
intensity, the forecast intensity has been flat-lined between day 2
and day 4, with the understanding that the the winds could increase
or decrease from the value shown. Vertical shear is expected to
increase by day 5, and some weakening is shown at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at
hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that
area tonight.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it
will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of
this system over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 202057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border
westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion
continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the system will move near or over extreme northern
Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on
Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread
westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on
Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 202056
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 80.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 81.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 201732
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 80.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 80.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
westward motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast tonight and Friday, with a general
northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just
north of the northeastern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands on
Friday and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area tonight and on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches
of rain across Jamaica and northern Nicaragua, and 2 to 4 inches
over portions of Honduras through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 201456
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Visible satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed
weather moving across the central Caribbean Sea has developed a
closed surface circulation, with the center embedded beneath
cellular convective cells and a large cirrus canopy. Also,
convection has increased in organization, and TAFB and SAB have
given the system classification of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt,
respectively. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen with maximum winds of 30 kt. An
expected ASCAT pass later today and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon should give us a better
handle on both the depression's center location and its maximum
winds.

The depression continues to move westward at a pretty good clip,
currently estimated to be on a heading of 280 degrees at 18 kt.
This motion is being driven by the western extent of the Bermuda
high, which currently noses into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
However, a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
become the main driver in the coming days, causing the cyclone to
slow down and turn rather suddenly toward the west-northwest and
northwest in the next 24-36 hours. A general northwestward motion
should then continue until the end of the 5-day forecast period,
bringing the system across the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and
into the central and western Gulf of Mexico early next week. Most
of the reliable track models are clustered close to one another,
and the official NHC track forecast is therefore very close to the
multi-model consensus aids, including the HCCA model.

Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours,
environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The
magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for
at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the
deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where sea
surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these
conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more
muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to
closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper
end of the guidance envelope. It is possible that the depression
could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days. Some weakening is
anticipated when the center moves over land, and then
re-strengthening is likely after it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
There will be an increase in shear over the Gulf in 4-5 days, and
right now there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in how this will
affect the cyclone's intensity at that point. For now, the
official forecast on days 4 and 5 shows a flat-lined intensity, and
this scenario lies a little above the ICON intensity consensus and
the HCCA model solution.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could produce
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the
coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands beginning tonight through
Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches
could be required for a portion of that area later today.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it
will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of
this system over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.1N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 201456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward
to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 79.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
a westward motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast tonight and Friday, with a general
northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just
north of the northeastern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands on
Friday and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area tonight and on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches
of rain across Jamaica and northern Nicaragua, and 2 to 4 inches
over portions of Honduras through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 201455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>