Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HERNAN-20
in Mexico,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.3N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 110.3W.
28AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
702 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 11 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (ISELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations
indicate that Hernan has degenerated into a broad low pressure area
near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. The
remnant low is forecast to move generally westward for the next
12-24 h until it is absorbed into the monsoon gyre that includes
Tropical Storm Iselle.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.2N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 282032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...HERNAN DEGENERATES TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 110.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 110.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 14 mph
(22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until the
system dissipates west of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula tonight or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The low pressure area is expected to dissipate tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 282032
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 110.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 108.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 108.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.1N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 109.2W.
28AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (HERNAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
731 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (ISELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 281442
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Hernan has become less organized since
the last advisory with most of the associated convection
dissipating. In addition, surface observations in the coastal
areas near the cyclone suggest the possibility that it no longer
has a closed circulation, although there are no observations over
water to confirm this. Based on decreasing satellite intensity
estimates, Hernan is downgraded to a tropical depression.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area as it moves over the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight. The system is then
expected to weaken to a trough on Saturday.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. Hernan is
moving around the northeastern side of the monsoon gyre that
contains Tropical Storm Iselle, and a general west-northwestward
motion is expected until the system dissipates on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 23.4N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 281441
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 109.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 109.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On
the forecast track, Hernan is forecast to move over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area tonight. The
remnants are expected to dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 281441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (HERNAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 106.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 106.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.6N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.2N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 107.5W.
28AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 13E (HERNAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (ISELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280809
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave
imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a
well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there
was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent
ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the
Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary
Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near
Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated
position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has
persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this
morning.

Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track
forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now
shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan
appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre
centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer
Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later
today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained
tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models
show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it
could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even
reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast
as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds
before it quickly weakens and dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280809
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...HERNAN LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...
...COULD ENTER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Hernan is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slow turn
toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. Hernan is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of California later today and could approach the southeast
coast of the Baja California peninsula by late Friday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next day or so and Hernan is
forecast to dissipate on Saturday, if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280808
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 280625
TCUEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
1230 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...HERNAN LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...
...UPDATED POSITION WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY...

Recent satellite-based wind data indicate that Hernan is located
northeast of previous estimates. The updated position will be
reflected in the next advisory, by 300 AM MDT. The satellite data
also indicated that the maximum winds remain 35 kt.

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM MDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 107.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF ISLA MARIA MADRE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of
Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains
poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the
Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if
a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming
scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west-
northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the
approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged
to the north of the previous track and lies near the various
consensus models.

A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction
with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the
next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system
weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant
low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to
degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and
several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HERNAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 107.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.0 West. Hernan is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected on
Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Friday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the
strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hernan is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and to a
remnant low pressure area on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 272034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Hernan has had a rather ragged appearance today with intermittent
convection firing around, but never really over the center. There
were no ASCAT overpasses during the day that directly sampled the
system's circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB support 35 kt and 30 kt, respectively, while the
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON numbers range from 30 to 40 kt. Based on a
blend of these values, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35
kt.

Hernan should at least maintain its current strength through
tonight as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate
easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the
forecast period. And by 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin
moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these
two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated
satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will
become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low
is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of
Iselle to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
agreement with the various intensity consensus aids.

Hernan is now moving northwest at about 5 kt. There is no change to
the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is expected to remain caught
within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the
next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise
around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone
is expected to continue to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico
through this evening and should begin to increase its forward speed
tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast Friday
through Friday night. The westward motion should continue until the
system becomes absorbed early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 272033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HERNAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.5 West. Hernan is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), an increase in
forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the
west-northwest then west is forecast to occur Friday and Friday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the
strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Hernan
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low late this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 272033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 271448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

First light visible satellite imagery reveals that Hernan remains a
sheared tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection confined
to the western semicircle. Even though convection has waned a
bit overnight, there appears to be a new cluster developing.
Therefore the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, based on
the earlier morning ASCAT overpass.

Hernan should at least maintain its current strength for the next
12-24 h as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate
easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the
forecast period. And after 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin
moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these
two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated
satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will
become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low
is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of
Hernan to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to
the IVCN/ICON intensity consensus.

Hernan has turned to the north-northwest and is moving at about 4
kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is
expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North
Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in
Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern
periphery of the gyre. The cyclone will continue to parallel the
coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening, followed by a
northwestward then westward turn tonight and Friday. The westward
motion should continue until the system becomes absorbed early next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.1N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 271447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HERNAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 106.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.2 West. Hernan is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
northwest along with an increase in forward speed is expected to
occur by tonight. A turn to the west is forecast this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest
winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Iselle is expected to begin weakening on Friday, and the system is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and be
absorbed by the circulation of Hernan to its west on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 271447
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Although Hernan is a sheared tropical cyclone, another strong burst
of deep convection with cloud tops of -83C to -86C has developed
near and south through west of the center. An 0401Z ASCAT-A
scatterometer pass revealed several 38-40 kt surface wind vectors of
south through southwest of the center, so the initial intensity has
been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate of 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimate is 355/04 kt. Hernan is expected to
remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic
gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving
counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the
gyre. The cyclone will continue to move slowly northward this
morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by Thursday
afternoon, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Friday. By
Saturday, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system, and possibly even dissipate and merge with Tropical
Storm Iselle when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja
California. The new NHC track is a very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple track
consensus models TVCE and GFEX, and the NOAA-HCCA
corrected-consensus model.

Hernan will remain in a moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind
shear regime for the next three days, which is expected to prevent
any significant strengthening from occurring despite the cyclone
being over warm waters and within a moist mid-level environment.
By 60 hours, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low,
and possibly merge with Tropical Storm Iselle in 72-96 hours. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...HERNAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Hernan is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by this afternoon, followed by a west-northwestward motion
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with
the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin by early
Friday, and Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly to the south and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270842
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Hernan remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a new burst of deep
convection, characterized by cloud tops of -75C to -85C, having
developed near and southwest of the well-defined low-level
circulation center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a
TAFB Dvorak satellite classification of T2.5/35 kt using a shear
pattern.

Up until a few hours ago, Hernan had been moving slowly
north-northeastward, but the motion is now estimated to be northward
or 360/05 kt. Hernan is forecast to remain trapped within and move
around the northeastern periphery of a large-scale, eastern North
Pacific monsoon gyre during the next few days. This is expected to
result in a slow northward motion tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Thursday, and a west-northwestward motion on
Friday. By Saturday, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low pressure system and be steered generally westward by the
low-level easterly flow on the north side of the gyre. On the
forecast track, Hernan and most of its significant winds and
convection should remain just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico tonight and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The new
NHC track is a very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the simple track consensus models TVCE and GFEX, and lies
to the left of the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model.

Hernan is expected to remain a sheared tropical cyclone throughout
its lifetime due to moderate to strong east to northeasterly
vertical wind shear. However, the cyclone will also be over warm
waters and within a moist mid-level environment for the next 48
hours or so. Although the official intensity forecast calls for no
change in strength, some slight intensification to 40 kt can't be
ruled out, especially tonight during the approaching convective
maximum period. By 60 hours and beyond, Hernan is forecast to move
over marginal sea-surface temperatures and be affected by strong
easterly shear of at least 20 kt, which should cause the cyclone to
weaken into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.3N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.0N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 22.0N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 22.5N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z 22.4N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270241
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...HERNAN MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.8 West. Hernan is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast on Thursday, followed by a west-northwestward motion on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with
the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so. A weakening trend is expected to begin late Thursday night, and
Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the south and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270241
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 262045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Despite the rather poor presentation in satellite imagery, a recent
ASCAT overpass showed that tropical-storm-force winds partially
associated with a broader scale monsoon gyre are occurring over the
southern portion of the circulation about 50-90 n mi from the
center. Based on the wind data, the initial intensity has been
raised to 35 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
Storm Hernan.

Hernan is a sheared tropical cyclone, with only a small area of deep
convection just to the south of the center. The SHIPS guidance
indicates that this shear will continue throughout the forecast
period. While the cyclone remains over very warm waters of about 29
degrees C for the next 24-36 h, there should be sufficient
convection to maintain Hernan's current intensity. However, after 36
h the cyclone will move over relatively cooler waters of about 26
C. These very marginal water temperatures combined with the ongoing
shear should cause Hernan to weaken, and the system is expected to
degenerate to a remnant low by 60 h, as indicated by the GFS
simulated satellite. The NHC intensity is a blend of the various
corrected consensus aids and the SHIPS intensity guidance.

Hernan appears to have made its anticipated turn to the northeast
and the initial motion is 040/5 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn
north then northwest over the next 24 h as it pivots around inside a
cyclonic gyre that includes Tropical Depression Fourteen-E to its
west. After that time, Hernan should be steered west-northwestward
to westward by a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the
southwestern U.S.. On this forecast track, Hernan and most of its
winds and convection should remain just offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of
the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The
official NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one, and
is near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.7N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.4N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 21.7N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 22.5N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.4N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 262042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HERNAN...
...FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 105.8 West. Hernan is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Thursday. The system is then expected to turn toward the
west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the
tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains,
is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A
weakening trend is expected to begin late Thursday night, and Hernan
is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 262041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 108.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2020 0 15.5N 117.7W 1003 34
0000UTC 27.08.2020 12 16.1N 116.5W 1000 35
1200UTC 27.08.2020 24 17.2N 116.0W 998 36
0000UTC 28.08.2020 36 17.5N 116.0W 995 38
1200UTC 28.08.2020 48 18.1N 115.8W 992 44
0000UTC 29.08.2020 60 19.0N 116.4W 986 56
1200UTC 29.08.2020 72 20.5N 117.4W 986 52
0000UTC 30.08.2020 84 21.9N 118.4W 988 45
1200UTC 30.08.2020 96 23.1N 119.3W 991 43
0000UTC 31.08.2020 108 23.5N 119.6W 996 36
1200UTC 31.08.2020 120 23.6N 119.1W 1001 30
0000UTC 01.09.2020 132 23.6N 118.6W 1003 25
1200UTC 01.09.2020 144 23.6N 118.4W 1006 22

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 91.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2020 0 26.7N 91.4W 968 72
0000UTC 27.08.2020 12 28.7N 93.3W 959 75
1200UTC 27.08.2020 24 31.4N 93.5W 969 41
0000UTC 28.08.2020 36 34.2N 92.7W 982 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 48 36.1N 91.0W 984 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 60 37.2N 87.4W 979 39
1200UTC 29.08.2020 72 37.5N 80.9W 986 25
0000UTC 30.08.2020 84 39.4N 73.3W 979 49
1200UTC 30.08.2020 96 45.2N 66.0W 966 52
0000UTC 31.08.2020 108 49.2N 62.8W 954 57
1200UTC 31.08.2020 120 50.6N 59.7W 970 47
0000UTC 01.09.2020 132 51.9N 54.2W 978 40
1200UTC 01.09.2020 144 52.6N 49.5W 983 33

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 106.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2020 0 17.6N 106.4W 1004 29
0000UTC 27.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.0N 106.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2020 24 19.0N 106.5W 1002 29
0000UTC 28.08.2020 36 20.0N 107.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.08.2020 48 22.5N 108.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 29.08.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.7N 145.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2020 60 11.7N 145.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 29.08.2020 72 11.8N 146.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 30.08.2020 84 12.1N 147.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 30.08.2020 96 12.5N 149.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 31.08.2020 108 13.3N 152.0W 1006 27
1200UTC 31.08.2020 120 14.1N 154.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 01.09.2020 132 14.7N 156.3W 1004 36
1200UTC 01.09.2020 144 15.3N 158.5W 1004 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261600

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2020 15.5N 117.7W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2020 16.1N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2020 17.2N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2020 17.5N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 18.1N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 19.0N 116.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2020 20.5N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 21.9N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2020 23.1N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2020 23.5N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2020 23.6N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 23.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 23.6N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 91.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2020 26.7N 91.4W STRONG
00UTC 27.08.2020 28.7N 93.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2020 31.4N 93.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2020 34.2N 92.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.08.2020 36.1N 91.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 37.2N 87.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2020 37.5N 80.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2020 39.4N 73.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2020 45.2N 66.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2020 49.2N 62.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2020 50.6N 59.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 51.9N 54.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2020 52.6N 49.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 106.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2020 17.6N 106.4W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.0N 106.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2020 19.0N 106.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2020 20.0N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2020 22.5N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.7N 145.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2020 11.7N 145.4W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2020 11.8N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2020 12.1N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2020 12.5N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2020 13.3N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.1N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2020 14.7N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.3N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261600

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 261440
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020

The depression remains poorly organized this morning with the
ill-defined surface circulation decoupled well to the east of the
convective mass. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from
both TAFB and SAB support 30 kt for this advisory.

UW-CIMSS shear analysis product shows stiff 20-25 kt of
east-northeasterly shear impinging on the east portion of the
depression. Both the FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models indicate that the strong shear will persist
through the forecast period. Consequently, little strengthening is
expected during the next several days. Because of the vertical
direction and magnitude, the forecast tropical-storm-force winds
and the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast follows a
blend of the multi-model intensity guidance, and the global models
beyond the 48 hr period which indicate the depression degenerating
into a remnant low on day 3, and dissipation by day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be a drift east-northeastward,
or 065/2 kt. The cyclone is embedded within an
northeast-to-southwest oriented cyclonic gyre, similar to a reverse
monsoon trough that typically forms in the western Pacific during
the summer months. The depression is forecast to drift today in a
general east-northeast to northeast direction followed by a turn
slowly north-northeastward tonight. A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Afterward, a
mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. should
force the cyclone west-northwestward to westward on Friday and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the depression should remain just
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and
pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur
on Friday and Saturday. The official track forecast is basically
an update of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the NOAA
HFIP Corrected Consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 261440
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.1
West. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the
east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast later today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest
rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 261440
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260849
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020

The broad area of low pressure that the NHC has been tracking the
past few days has become better defined based on a 0356Z ASCAT-B
scatterometer overpass. Although the system is slightly elongated
northeast-to-southwest, the center is well defined and deep
convection has persisted west of the center despite strong easterly
vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Thus, the low has been upgraded to
Tropical Depression 13-E. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based
on scatterometer surface wind speeds of 30-32 kt, which are
consistent with T2.0/30-kt satellite classifications from TAFB-SAB.

The initial motion estimate is slowly north-northeastward or 025/04
kt. The depression is embedded within an east-to-west oriented
cyclonic gyre with a high-amplitude mid-level ridge located over
the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. These gyre will cause the
cyclone to move slowly northward today and northwestward on
Thursday, with the ridge acting as a poleward block and forcing to
system to turn west-northwestward to westward on Friday and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to remain
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday,
and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California
Sur on Friday and Saturday. The NHC official track forecast closely
follows the simple consensus model TVCE, and lies a little to
the left or west of the corrected-consensus model HCCA and the
ECMWF model tracks.

Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist through the next 24
hours, so little if any strengthening is expected during that time.
In fact, convection is likely to erode a little during the day
today, and then redevelop closer to the center tonight when the
shear begins to abate somewhat. In the 36-60 hour period, the shear
is forecast to weaken considerably from the northeast, allowing for
some slight strengthening to occur. However, the intensity is not
expected to increase to more than 35-40 kt, with the strongest
winds and heaviest rains remaining offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico. For those reason, a tropical warning has not been issued
for southwestern Mexico at this time. The official intensity
forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, HWRF, and ECMWF models
intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.5N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.7
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph
(7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A
turn toward the north is forecast by this afternoon, followed a
motion toward the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest
winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020
0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>