Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OMAR-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 052031
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep
convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of
the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just
enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression,
but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized
deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore,
this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial
intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data
that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center.

The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred
miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants
of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the
front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition.
Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 38.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/0600Z 40.2N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 43.3N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 052030
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

...OMAR IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 56.9W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar
was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 56.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17
km/h). A faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to merge with a cold front on Sunday
and dissipate Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 33.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2020 0 17.2N 33.4W 1012 26
0000UTC 06.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 103.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2020 0 16.1N 103.9W 1009 24
0000UTC 06.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 57.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2020 0 36.6N 57.4W 1014 30
0000UTC 06.09.2020 12 38.5N 56.7W 1016 28
1200UTC 06.09.2020 24 41.3N 54.7W 1015 31
0000UTC 07.09.2020 36 44.8N 49.7W 1016 29
1200UTC 07.09.2020 48 49.0N 40.9W 1015 30
0000UTC 08.09.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.6N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2020 48 17.0N 41.1W 1003 27
0000UTC 08.09.2020 60 16.8N 42.5W 1001 31
1200UTC 08.09.2020 72 17.0N 42.7W 1000 30
0000UTC 09.09.2020 84 17.7N 44.2W 998 38
1200UTC 09.09.2020 96 18.1N 45.2W 998 40
0000UTC 10.09.2020 108 18.9N 46.4W 997 42
1200UTC 10.09.2020 120 19.4N 47.3W 995 46
0000UTC 11.09.2020 132 20.3N 47.6W 992 46
1200UTC 11.09.2020 144 21.1N 47.2W 989 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.0N 26.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2020 72 16.0N 26.9W 1005 28
0000UTC 09.09.2020 84 17.0N 29.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 09.09.2020 96 18.0N 31.4W 1007 29
0000UTC 10.09.2020 108 19.7N 34.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 10.09.2020 120 21.5N 36.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 11.09.2020 132 23.7N 38.9W 1006 33
1200UTC 11.09.2020 144 25.8N 39.8W 1004 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.4N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 132 12.4N 23.6W 1008 27
1200UTC 11.09.2020 144 12.9N 26.5W 1005 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 33.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2020 17.2N 33.4W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 103.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2020 16.1N 103.9W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 57.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2020 36.6N 57.4W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2020 38.5N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2020 41.3N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2020 44.8N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2020 49.0N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.6N 40.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2020 17.0N 41.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2020 16.8N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2020 17.0N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2020 17.7N 44.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 18.1N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 18.9N 46.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 19.4N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 20.3N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 21.1N 47.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.0N 26.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2020 16.0N 26.9W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2020 17.0N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 18.0N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 19.7N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 21.5N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 23.7N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 25.8N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.4N 23.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 12.4N 23.6W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 12.9N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051559

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 051439
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed
to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar
remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it
is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to
finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become
one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep
convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold
front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is
expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to
become extratropical by Sunday afternoon.

The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more
embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold
front.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 57.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 57.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected
during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early Sunday,
and to dissipate by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 051438
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 57.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 57.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050834
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection that are being
sheared to the south of the center of circulation. However,
these busts are near enough to the center for the system to
still qualify as a tropical cyclone. Since Omar is now finally
beginning to head for cooler waters, convection will likely decrease
and Omar should become a remnant low within 24 hours.

As expected, the cyclone is now moving north-northeastward, or
020/6 kt. A continued generally north-northeast track with
acceleration is likely, under the influence of an approaching large
mid-level trough. The official track forecast is similar to the
NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 36.2N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 37.6N 56.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 40.1N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 57.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general direction of motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight
or early Sunday, and to dissipate by late Sunday or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050832
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 57.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 57.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.6N 56.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.1N 55.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 57.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050240
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of
the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical
depression despite ongoing strong shear. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a
satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. A combination of
continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay
to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday
night or Sunday.

Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the
initial motion is now 070/4. An approaching deep-layer trough
should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday
and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the
northern central Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 35.6N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

...OMAR MAINTAINS TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 57.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 57.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and
should continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Omar is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate
by Saturday night or Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050240
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 57.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 57.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 042032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 042033
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is
producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center,
enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data.
Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly
wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry
air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low
this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday
night.

The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An
approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north-
northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction
until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 35.3N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

...OMAR HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 57.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 57.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and
should continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Omar is forecast to become a remnant low tonight or early
Saturday and dissipate by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 94.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2020 14.2N 94.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 38.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2020 11.1N 38.0W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 58.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2020 35.1N 58.0W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2020 35.5N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2020 36.9N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2020 38.6N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2020 41.6N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2020 44.3N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2020 47.2N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 16.7N 42.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2020 16.7N 42.5W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2020 16.1N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2020 16.7N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2020 17.7N 43.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2020 18.1N 44.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 18.9N 45.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 19.6N 46.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 20.4N 46.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.6N 25.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2020 15.8N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2020 17.3N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 18.0N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 19.9N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 22.6N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041600

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC
yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new
burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's
center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this
convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did,
Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a
lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable
25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis.

Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An
approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak
cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today
and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of
deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause
Omar to dissipate by early Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

...OMAR COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 57.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 57.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
northeast to north-northeastward motion is expected to begin by
tonight and should continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Omar could
become a remnant low at any time today and is expected to dissipate
over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 041441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 57.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 57.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040835
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little
over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection
overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly
shear. Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation.
The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier
scatterometer measurements. If the lack of convection continues,
Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. In
any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough
within a couple of days.

After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a
rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt. The system should turn toward the
northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough
within 36-48 hours. The official forecast is somewhat faster than
the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus
predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 35.3N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040834
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Omar is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040834
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 58.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040232
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south
of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The
only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern
semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is
based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors.
If the current state of the tropical depression persists through
much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer
qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on
despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is
still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to
envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of
Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating
into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday
morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering
flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger
low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to
continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the
southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By
Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar
gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal
system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 35.2N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

...OMAR FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 59.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 59.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn to the east is expected late tonight with a slowing of
the forward speed. A turn to the northeast is expected by Friday
night, followed by an increase in forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Omar should degenerate into a
remnant low Friday morning then dissipate over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 59.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 59.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 59.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 032034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has
changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a
sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the
south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier
METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual
weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the
cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly
shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models
insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or
less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once
again, reflect this scenario.

It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred
miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to
move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary
interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an
eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system
downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the
northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high
several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over
the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the
south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the
various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 35.4N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 60.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 60.1 West. The
depression is temporarily moving toward the east-southeast near 10
mph (17 km/h), and a turn back toward the east accompanied by a
slight decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday morning.
A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast
Saturday morning and Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a
remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should
dissipate by Sunday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 032033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 031435
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was
classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless
deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the
southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and
the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the
satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the
initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale
models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show
further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as
soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar's resiliency in such a
harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast
shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours,
then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday.

The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past
24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer
westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the
central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through
Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast
is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching
mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

...OMAR STILL A DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday morning,
accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed. A turn toward
the east-northeast and northeast is expected Friday and Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a
remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should
dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030845
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center
occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective
canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent
classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30
kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been
enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because
Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea
surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions
are not expected to become less conducive for convective
development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for
Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming
increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the
next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing,
it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a
remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the
NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all
global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should
open up into a trough by then.

Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of
the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue
for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast
by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track
forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite,
and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

...OMAR REFUSES TO GIVE IN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 62.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 62.4 West. Omar is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the east-northeast and
northeast is expected Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a
remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low should
dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030233
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of
Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the
southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that
developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter
lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass
showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle.
There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind
shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to
persist near Omar's center, and the depression should degenerate to
a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement
with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant
low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching
mid-latitude frontal system.

Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a
subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast
through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn
east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching
mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very
close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 36.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

...OMAR BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 64.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar
was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn
toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast, and Omar is likely to become a
remnant low Thursday and dissipate by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022038
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is
rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has
become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer
passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of
the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no
longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30
kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective
satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global
model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant
low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than
Saturday evening.

Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt,
within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge
stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should
continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the
global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward.
Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in
forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an
approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The
NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous
one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022037
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 65.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn
toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast and Omar is likely to become a
remnant low Thursday with dissipation by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022037
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam,
the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically
affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass
is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed
surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based
on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using
the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later
tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the
convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar
dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast,
I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by
degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the
multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM.

Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and
is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced
by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar
should continue on this general course through Friday. On
Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn
toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal
boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant
changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC
forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

...BLISTERING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT OMAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 67.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 67.4 West. Omar is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening
should begin Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low
by Thursday night.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 67.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020839
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that
Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a
sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the
low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening's ASCAT
pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar's initial
intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could
maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while
the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is
over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is
close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24
hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat
content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north.
Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar
likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about
2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should
dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the
NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier.

Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge.
This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an
east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a
breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone's forward
speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the
direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF
solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 36.2N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

...OMAR TOUGHING IT OUT AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 68.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 68.7 West. Omar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the east is forecast by this evening, with a reduction
in forward speed occuring through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening
should begin by Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low
by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020839
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of
convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed
off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center.
The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination
of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as
as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds
compared to earlier today.

These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a
tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear
is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should
cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday
night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to
have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An
approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the
remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the
various intensity aids.

Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering
pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone
will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period,
once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is
expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in
the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 35.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...OMAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 70.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 70.0 West. Omar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the east
is forecast to occur Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change is strength is expected through Wednesday. A weakening
trend should begin Wednesday night, and Omar is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012048
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a
bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center,
and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of
the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and
the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since
scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt. This makes Omar the 15th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the
earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about
a week from Ophelia of 2005.

Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due
to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by
then. The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to
decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner. No
significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is
near the model consensus.

The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt. The
cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical
ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow
and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge.
The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long
range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system
no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track
prediction follows suit. The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 35.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 36.1N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 36.7N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 37.2N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 37.2N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 37.0N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 37.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012047
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 71.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 71.5 West. Omar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is forecast through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the
east by Thursday. On the forecast track, Omar will continue to
move away from North Carolina.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
overnight, following by weakening beginning on Wednesday night.
Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure
by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012047
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 71.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 71.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N 69.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.7N 66.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.2N 63.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.2N 61.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.09.2020

TROPICAL STORM 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 76.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2020 0 15.6N 76.0W 1010 25
0000UTC 02.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2020 0 34.2N 73.6W 1012 23
0000UTC 02.09.2020 12 35.6N 71.5W 1012 23
1200UTC 02.09.2020 24 36.1N 69.1W 1011 25
0000UTC 03.09.2020 36 37.0N 66.4W 1009 24
1200UTC 03.09.2020 48 37.4N 63.7W 1009 23
0000UTC 04.09.2020 60 37.9N 62.3W 1009 20
1200UTC 04.09.2020 72 38.2N 60.4W 1010 25
0000UTC 05.09.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 24.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2020 60 13.7N 24.6W 1007 25
1200UTC 04.09.2020 72 15.6N 26.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 05.09.2020 84 17.9N 30.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 05.09.2020 96 19.6N 34.8W 1009 38
0000UTC 06.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.0N 35.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2020 72 10.4N 35.3W 1008 32
0000UTC 05.09.2020 84 12.0N 34.9W 1006 36
1200UTC 05.09.2020 96 14.5N 35.1W 1005 38
0000UTC 06.09.2020 108 17.7N 36.3W 1004 44
1200UTC 06.09.2020 120 19.9N 39.4W 1002 42
0000UTC 07.09.2020 132 19.9N 42.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 07.09.2020 144 19.2N 42.7W 999 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2020

TROPICAL STORM 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 76.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.6N 76.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2020 34.2N 73.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2020 35.6N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2020 36.1N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2020 37.0N 66.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2020 37.4N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2020 37.9N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2020 38.2N 60.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 24.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2020 13.7N 24.6W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2020 15.6N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2020 17.9N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2020 19.6N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.0N 35.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2020 10.4N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2020 12.0N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2020 14.5N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2020 17.7N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2020 19.9N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2020 19.9N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2020 19.2N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011601

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011441
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

The depression has become better organized this morning with the
center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep
convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds
of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression
is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30
kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon.
Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening,
although it does seem more likely than not that this system will
barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is
forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is
anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to
cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours.
While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the
last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity
prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm
threshold.

The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12
kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this
motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward
during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the
last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather
than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the
faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation
is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as
days 2-3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 73.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h)
This general motion is forecast today, followed by a turn toward
the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast
today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. Gradual weakening is anticipated by late Wednesday. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening,
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 73.1W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010835
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Deep convection remains displaced to the east and southeast of the
depression's low-level center due to increasing west-northwesterly
shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, with no
appreciable structural changes having occurred since last evening's
ASCAT pass, which showed 25-30 kt winds.

The initial motion is toward the northeast, or 050/11 kt, with the
depression becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies north
of the subtropical ridge. Forecast guidance agrees that the
cyclone will turn east-northeastward and then eastward during the
next 2-3 days, moving farther out into the Atlantic, although there
is greater-than-normal spread among the track models mainly due to
speed differences. In particular, the ECMWF is one of the fastest
models, while the GFS and UKMET hang the cyclone back to the west a
little longer. Since many of the consensus aids, including HCCA,
are closer to the faster model solutions, the NHC track forecast
leans toward the quicker side of things.

UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the shear has increased to 20-25
kt, and it's only expected to get stronger from here. Some slight
strengthening of the depression can't be ruled out during the next
12-24 hours while the shear vector is aligned with the storm motion,
but by this time tomorrow the shear is likely to be as strong as
35-45 kt out of the northwest. Therefore, little change in
strength is now indicated in the official forecast for the next day
or two. The shear magnitude is expected to peak in about 48 hours,
and the depression is forecast to be a remnant low at that point,
if it hasn't become one already. The GFS dissipates the low in
about 48 hours, but since the other models hang onto it a little
bit longer, the NHC forecast shows dissipation by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 34.1N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...
...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 74.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although the depression still has a small chance to become a
tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength
are expected during the next couple of days. The system could
degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to
affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this
evening, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010834
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 74.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 73.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2020 0 14.2N 73.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 01.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2020 0 32.6N 76.1W 1011 21
1200UTC 01.09.2020 12 34.3N 73.9W 1012 22
0000UTC 02.09.2020 24 35.6N 72.2W 1012 23
1200UTC 02.09.2020 36 36.4N 70.1W 1011 23
0000UTC 03.09.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N 24.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2020 72 13.8N 24.8W 1007 25
1200UTC 04.09.2020 84 15.5N 26.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 05.09.2020 96 17.7N 29.5W 1010 29
1200UTC 05.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.8N 33.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2020 84 10.8N 33.7W 1008 31
0000UTC 05.09.2020 96 11.9N 33.5W 1006 37
1200UTC 05.09.2020 108 14.5N 33.8W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.09.2020 120 17.7N 35.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 06.09.2020 132 19.2N 39.8W 1003 40
0000UTC 07.09.2020 144 19.5N 42.7W 1001 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010405

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 73.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2020 14.2N 73.4W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2020 32.6N 76.1W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2020 34.3N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 35.6N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2020 36.4N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N 24.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2020 13.8N 24.8W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2020 15.5N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2020 17.7N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.8N 33.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2020 10.8N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2020 11.9N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2020 14.5N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2020 17.7N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2020 19.2N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2020 19.5N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010405

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010239
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Tropical Depression Fifteen is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the
edge of the deep convection displaced nearly 30 n mi to the east of
the exposed low-level center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission earlier this evening provided SFMR instrument measurements
of nearly 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. And, a recent ASCAT
overpass showed several wind vectors in that same general area
between 25-30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at
30 kt.

The depression is moving northeast at 12 kt around the northwestern
periphery of the subtropical ridge. A turn to the east-northeast is
expected to occur on Tuesday as the cyclone moves along the
northern periphery of the ridge. Late in the forecast period, what
is left of the cyclone is forecast to get caught in the flow
between building high pressure to its northeast, and an approaching
trough to its northwest, which should induce a more northerly
component of motion. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from
the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

The cyclone has moved into an environment with moderate westerly
shear of about 20 kt, as indicated by the latest UW-CIMSS deep-layer
shear analysis product. The SHIPS guidance by both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate that the shear magnitude will more than double between 18 h
and 36 h from now. So it is anticipated that the only window of
time for the depression to strengthen will be tonight through
tomorrow, while the system is over warm waters and in a moist
atmospheric environment. After 48 h, when the vertical wind shear is
forecast to be between 40 and 50 kt, the cyclone is forecast to
weaken, and by 96 h the NHC forecast now shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low. Exactly what transpires with the
cyclone later in the forecast period remains uncertain, as some of
the global models suggest that the cyclone will open into a trough
in a few days, while others indicate that the system could be
absorbed by a larger mid-latitude trough around day 5. Regardless of
what occurs by those time frames, the models all suggest that the
system should not gain much more strength than it currently has. The
official NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
various intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 33.2N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 34.2N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 35.1N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 36.0N 68.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 36.9N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 37.7N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 38.1N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 38.7N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 41.6N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH WHILE IT
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 75.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
turn to the east-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and
this general motion should continue for a few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is not forecast to strengthen much, but it could
become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Little, if any, additional
strengthening is forecast thereafter, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin on Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of North Carolina, especially along the Outer Banks. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through tomorrow evening. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010238
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 75.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 75.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.1N 71.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 68.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.9N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 63.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.7N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 41.6N 50.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312044
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure offshore of
the Carolinas has had convection organized in bands since before
dawn, and scatterometer plus an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission data confirm that the circulation is closed. Thus,
this is now a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is
set to 30 kt in accordance with 25-30 kt ASCAT-A data plus buoy
42001 readings which earlier had an adjusted 10-m peak of 30 kt.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system
should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by Wednesday due to
it moving around the northwest side of the subtropical ridge, then
move eastward in a few days around the flat ridge. By late week,
the cyclone could slow and eventually turn back toward the northeast
around a rather strong mid-latitude high pressure system over the
northeast Atlantic. There is considerable spread in the guidance,
which really seems to depend upon whether the system stays coherent,
like the official forecast, or would become a shallow low-level
swirl by 120h and end up slower and south of forecast track. This
forecast is near the corrected-consensus guidance, leaning toward
the ECMWF-based models, and it should be considered of low
confidence.

Gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so while the
depression remains in a low-to-moderate shear environment. Although
the depression is expected to be traversing the warm Gulf Stream for
the next several days, wind shear is expected to greatly increase by
Wednesday, which should limit intensification. In fact there's
some chance the system could decay and lose any deep convection in
rather strong shear in a few days. However, since it likely will be
moving near the Gulf Stream, I suspect it will continue to pulse
thunderstorm activity and stay alive throughout the period. The NHC
intensity forecast is near or just above the model consensus on
that reasoning, closest to the HWRF model. The cyclone could
become extratropical (or a remnant low) by the end of the forecast,
but this is very uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 32.6N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. The depression is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a motion toward the
northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday,
but little, if any, additional strengthening is forecast Tuesday
night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of North Carolina, especially along the Outer Banks.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through tomorrow. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020
2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>