Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21
in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210203014114
2021020300 17P LUCAS 013 02 190 13 SATL SYNP 020
T000 219S 1671E 040 R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 230S 1668E 035 R034 030 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 167.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 167.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 167.0E.
03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020200 171S1650E 45
1721020206 184S1661E 50
1721020212 196S1668E 50
1721020218 206S1673E 50
1721020218 206S1673E 50
1721020300 219S1671E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 167.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 167.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 167.0E.
03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHWARD
PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO
SHOWS VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND LINED
UP WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 022226Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 030040Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35KTS. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC LUCAS IS QUICKLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z
IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.9S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.8S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.5S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112
NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 6-HR ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW SHEARED 20NM+ SOUTHWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON OUVEA AND LIFOU ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 021730Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 39KTS, AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS, AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (35KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 24. TC LUCAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210202191652
2021020218 17P LUCAS 012 02 155 11 SATL SYNP 015
T000 206S 1673E 040 R034 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 219S 1677E 035 R034 060 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 228S 1674E 030
T036 235S 1663E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.9S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.8S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.5S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112
NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020200 171S1650E 45
1721020206 184S1661E 50
1721020212 196S1668E 50
1721020218 206S1673E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210202132929
2021020212 17P LUCAS 011 02 150 14 SATL SYNP 060
T000 196S 1668E 050 R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 213S 1675E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 224S 1676E 040 R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 231S 1669E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 238S 1656E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 166.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.4S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.1S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.8S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 167.0E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
142 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020200 171S1650E 45
1721020206 184S1661E 50
1721020212 196S1668E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 166.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.4S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.1S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.8S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 167.0E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
142 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE VIA EXTRAPOLATION
THROUGH THE CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE DATA FROM A PARTIAL 021023Z
ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS PLACED BETWEEN
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS,
PGTW) AND T3.0 (45 KTS, KNES) AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A 021020Z
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC LUCAS
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC LUCAS WILL MAINTAIN A
50 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKEOVER STEERING FROM THE NER
AFTER TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST
THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF
170 NM AT TAU 36 THAT INCREASES SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.2S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.4S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.1S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 166.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN A TIMELY 020555Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE THAT
FURTHER REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BELOW MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS,
NFFN, KNES) AND CLOSER TO A 020218Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS BASED ON THE RECENT WARMING CLOUD TOP
TREND. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC LUCAS WILL MAINTAIN A
45 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKEOVER STEERING FROM THE NER
AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36. CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST
THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF
250 NM AT TAU 48 THAT INCREASES SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P
(ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210202080808
2021020206 17P LUCAS 010 02 140 17 SATL 060
T000 184S 1661E 045 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 202S 1673E 045 R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 216S 1677E 040 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 224S 1676E 035 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 231S 1668E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 250S 1641E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.2S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.4S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.1S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 166.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020200 171S1650E 45
1721020206 184S1661E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210202010327
2021020200 17P LUCAS 009 02 120 11 SATL 025
T000 171S 1650E 045 R034 145 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 190S 1667E 045 R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 207S 1674E 045 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 217S 1676E 040 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 226S 1672E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 243S 1651E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.7S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.7S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.6S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.3S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 165.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020200 171S1650E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.7S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.7S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.6S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.3S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 165.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 6-HR ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPACT CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED 90NM+ SOUTHEASTWARD OF A MOSTLY-
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM 012038Z ASCAT PARTIAL
PASS NEAR THE CENTER AND SUPPORTED BY A 020040Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 47KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (35KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA
AROUND TAU 48. TC LUCAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS
FURTHER INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210201195409
2021020118 17P LUCAS 008 02 125 16 SATL 045
T000 166S 1640E 060 R050 075 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 185S 1661E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 203S 1672E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 217S 1675E 045 R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 227S 1673E 040 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 243S 1652E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 259S 1629E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.3S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.7S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.3S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.9S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 164.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020118 166S1640E 60
1721020118 166S1640E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.3S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.7S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.3S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.9S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 164.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 011743Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH A PATCH OF STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS AT
011436Z FURTHER REINFORCES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY
TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SET ALONG CONSENSUS WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LIMITED TO UNDER
100NM AT TAU 72. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-55
KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AT OR
BEFORE TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210201131537
2021020112 17P LUCAS 007 02 120 19 SATL 040
T000 157S 1626E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 173S 1647E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 192S 1664E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 211S 1670E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 225S 1667E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 242S 1656E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 258S 1639E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.3S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.1S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.5S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.2S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 163.1E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020100 141S1586E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020106 148S1609E 60
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
1721020112 157S1626E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.3S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.1S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.5S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.2S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 163.1E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 011043Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM
UNREALISTICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 WHILE THE UKMET
TRACKER AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER
EAST NEAR VANUATU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE ECMWF,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS
STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-55 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P
(ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210201085036
2021020106 17P LUCAS 006 03 110 19 SATL 030
T000 148S 1609E 055 R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 162S 1631E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 181S 1653E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 201S 1665E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 220S 1664E 050 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 238S 1654E 040 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 253S 1637E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.2S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.0S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.8S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.3S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 161.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) FINAL WARNING
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 142S1590E 50
1721020100 142S1590E 50
1721020106 148S1609E 55
1721020106 148S1609E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.2S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.0S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.8S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.3S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 161.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 010516Z
SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). OTHER AGENCY ESTIMATES VARY FROM T4.0 (ABRF) TO T4.5 (KNES)
BASED ON THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE. THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE PEAK INTENSITY
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 48, WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS. NAVGEM
TRACKS THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72
WHILE THE UKMET TRACKER AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS INDICATE A
TRACK FURTHER EAST NEAR VANUATU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS A TIGHT GROUPING OF
THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS AND SST
VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210201013408
2021020100 17P LUCAS 005 03 110 13 SATL 035
T000 141S 1585E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 025 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 154S 1618E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 173S 1645E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 193S 1661E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 211S 1666E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 232S 1662E 040 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 250S 1641E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 158.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 158.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.3S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.3S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.1S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.2S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 159.3E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721013118 137S1572E 55
1721020100 141S1585E 50
1721020100 141S1585E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 158.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 158.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.3S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.3S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.1S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.2S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 159.3E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES AND SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND
A 312315Z GMI MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED
JUST ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 49 KNOTS AND JUST BELOW AN EARLIER 312041Z CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 312306Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS GIVES FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND
SHOWS A SWATH OF 40KT BARBS SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIMINISHING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODERATE SHEAR, BUT TC LUCAS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM, RESULTING IN 60 KTS BY TAU 24.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24) WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALONG A GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC LUCAS WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. HIGH (>30 KTS) VWS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO HIGH
(>40 KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (25-26 DEGREES CELSIUS) WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE TO A MAXIMUM 325 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 96. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER TC LUCAS, GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF ITS DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210131192318
2021013118 17P LUCAS 004 03 095 20 SATL 040
T000 134S 1572E 055 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 144S 1607E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 160S 1638E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 179S 1661E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 199S 1673E 060 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 225S 1676E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 243S 1663E 035 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 258S 1642E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.4S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.9S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 158.1E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z,
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013112 132S1552E 55
1721013118 134S1572E 55
1721013118 134S1572E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.4S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.9S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 158.1E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z,
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210131131059
2021013112 17P LUCAS 003 03 070 15 SATL 060
T000 131S 1552E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 135S 1583E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 146S 1616E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 161S 1644E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 178S 1663E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 208S 1679E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 228S 1676E 040 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 246S 1661E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.5S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.8S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.8S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.8S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 156.0E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 136S1538E 50
1721013112 131S1552E 55
1721013112 131S1552E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.5S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.8S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.8S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.8S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 156.0E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
806 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES AND SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND
VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN THE WINDFIELD FROM 310951Z ASCAT-A DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND
A 311103Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS.
TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR
TERM AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUCAS
WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS. HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING
THIS TIME. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST WHICH WILL LEAD
TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL
TRACKS DIVERGE TO A MAXIMUM 335 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THE
GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE TRACKS THAT BRING THE
VORTEX OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE THE UKMET AND GALWEM GUIDANCE LIES TO
THE EAST, RESULTING IN A TRACK THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER
OVER LAND. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210131074017
2021013106 17P LUCAS 002 03 090 09 SATL 060
T000 139S 1532E 050 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 140S 1560E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 148S 1594E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 162S 1627E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 180S 1653E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 213S 1674E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 233S 1675E 045 R034 050 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 251S 1659E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.2S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.3S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 153.9E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
1721013106 139S1532E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.2S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.3S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 153.9E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
901 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES
IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PRESENT IN A
310622Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED
HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS)
BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.3 (51 KTS) AND A 310348Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
48 KTS FROM CIMSS. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING VWS WILL STIFLE THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BUILDING TO THE EAST. CONTINUED WARM SST AND
ROBUST OUTFLOW, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SST AND UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING STR BETWEEN TAU
72 AND 96, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 96 AT WHICH TIME
IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO 30 KTS AND DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL
TRACKS PROVIDE A MAXIMUM 500 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THE GFS,
ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX
OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE THE UKMET AND GALWEM GUIDANCE LIES TO THE
EAST, RESULTING IN A TRACK THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER
OVER LAND. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210131021614
2021013100 17P SEVENTEEN 001 03 090 08 SATL 040
T000 139S 1523E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 138S 1548E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 143S 1579E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 154S 1612E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 169S 1642E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 205S 1674E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 227S 1680E 045 R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 243S 1668E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.8S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.3S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.5S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.3S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 152.9E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1721012700 150S1415E 20
1721012706 149S1418E 20
1721012712 148S1421E 20
1721012718 148S1423E 20
1721012800 147S1425E 20
1721012806 147S1427E 20
1721012812 147S1429E 20
1721012818 145S1432E 20
1721012900 142S1439E 20
1721012906 137S1449E 20
1721012912 133S1463E 20
1721012918 132S1475E 25
1721013000 133S1482E 25
1721013006 135S1492E 30
1721013012 139S1503E 30
1721013018 139S1515E 30
1721013100 139S1523E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.8S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.3S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.5S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.3S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 152.9E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A 310005Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE, GIVING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INTIAL POSITION OF TC 17P. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40KTS, HEDGED BETWEEN CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES. A PARTIAL 312230Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A PASS OF 30KT BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL SUPPORTIVE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, DRIVING TC 17P SOUTHEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 25KTS AS A TROUGH PASSES ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INCREASED SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TC 17P DOWN TO 30 KNOTS AS IT ROUNDS NEW CALEDONIA. NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF APPROXIMATELY 300NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE PASSING TROUGH, DISSIPATION TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>