Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for KOGUMA-21
in Viet Nam, China, Laos

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2104 KOGUMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130600UTC 19.9N 104.6E
MOVEMENT W 10KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (2104) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2104 KOGUMA (2104) 996 HPA
AT 19.6N 105.4E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.6N 104.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 21.3N 102.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 122245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (2104) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 19.7N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 20.5N 104.5E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 132100UTC 21.2N 102.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 19.7N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 21.2N 102.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 122100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 106.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 106.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 106.2E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOCAL WEATHER RADAR ANALYSIS AND THE 121730Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX INDICATES TD 05W HAS MADE LANDFALL. WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM HAIPHONG AND THAI BINH, VIETNAM SHOW A RECENT DROP
FOLLOWED BY A RISE IN AIR PRESSURE, INDICATIVE OF STORM CENTER
PASSAGE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH THE
WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TD 05W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED FORECAST DISCUSSION IN
REMARKS SECTION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (2104) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KOGUMA IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 106.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2104 KOGUMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121800UTC 20.0N 106.4E
MOVEMENT WSW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130600UTC 20.2N 104.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 19.7N 106.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 20.3N 104.9E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 131800UTC 21.0N 103.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 19.7N 106.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 21.0N 103.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2104 KOGUMA (2104) 996 HPA
AT 19.7N 106.5E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 20.3N 104.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 21.0N 103.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (2104) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 19.8N 106.8E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 20.5N 105.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131500UTC 21.5N 103.3E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 19.8N 106.8E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 21.5N 103.3E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KOGUMA (2104) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 121400
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 210612124016
2021061212 05W KOGUMA 003 01 305 17 SATL SYNP 020
T000 200N 1073E 035 R034 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 208N 1057E 030
T024 216N 1044E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 106.9E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
0521060918 170N1160E 15
0521061000 172N1156E 15
0521061006 173N1149E 15
0521061012 175N1146E 15
0521061018 178N1140E 15
0521061100 178N1134E 15
0521061106 178N1127E 20
0521061112 179N1122E 20
0521061118 180N1115E 20
0521061200 182N1100E 25
0521061206 190N1088E 25
0521061212 200N1073E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 121400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 106.9E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 210612124016
2021061212 05W KOGUMA 003 01 305 17 SATL SYNP 020
T000 200N 1073E 035 R034 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 208N 1057E 030
T024 216N 1044E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 106.9E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
0521060918 170N1160E 15
0521061000 172N1156E 15
0521061006 173N1149E 15
0521061012 175N1146E 15
0521061018 178N1140E 15
0521061100 178N1134E 15
0521061106 178N1127E 20
0521061112 179N1122E 20
0521061118 180N1115E 20
0521061200 182N1100E 25
0521061206 190N1088E 25
0521061212 200N1073E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 106.9E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KOGUMA IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 107.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2104 KOGUMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121200UTC 19.8N 107.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130000UTC 20.3N 105.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 131200UTC 21.2N 104.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 19.8N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 20.4N 105.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131200UTC 21.4N 103.7E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 19.8N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 21.4N 103.7E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2104 KOGUMA (2104) 996 HPA
AT 19.8N 107.3E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 20.4N 105.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 21.4N 103.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 19.7N 108.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 20.0N 106.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130900UTC 20.8N 104.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 19.7N 108.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 20.8N 104.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N, 109.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KOGUMA) STATUS. TS KOGUMA IS LOCATED AT 19.4N, 108.6E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2104 KOGUMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 19.4N 108.7E
MOVEMENT NW 21KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121800UTC 19.8N 106.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 130600UTC 20.5N 105.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 131800UTC 21.2N 104.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 210612065904
2021061206 05W FIVE 002 01 305 14 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 190N 1088E 025
T012 198N 1069E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 207N 1055E 030
T036 214N 1044E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.7N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 108.3E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
0521060918 170N1160E 15
0521061000 172N1156E 15
0521061006 173N1149E 15
0521061012 175N1146E 15
0521061018 178N1140E 15
0521061100 178N1134E 15
0521061106 178N1127E 20
0521061112 179N1122E 20
0521061118 180N1115E 20
0521061200 182N1100E 25
0521061206 190N1088E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.7N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 108.3E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.4N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 19.8N 106.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130600UTC 20.6N 105.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.4N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 20.6N 105.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2104 KOGUMA (2104) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 19.4N 108.6E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 19.8N 106.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 20.6N 105.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 21.6N 103.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.5N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.5N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.5E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM EAST OF SANYA, HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z,
122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 210612013236
2021061200 05W FIVE 001 01 280 14 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 182N 1100E 025
T012 188N 1079E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 195N 1064E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 205N 1049E 030
T048 213N 1044E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.5N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.5N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.5E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM EAST OF SANYA, HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z,
122100Z AND 130300Z.//
0521060918 170N1160E 15
0521061000 172N1156E 15
0521061006 173N1149E 15
0521061012 175N1146E 15
0521061018 178N1140E 15
0521061100 178N1134E 15
0521061106 178N1127E 20
0521061112 179N1122E 20
0521061118 180N1115E 20
0521061200 182N1100E 25
NNNN

>