Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for FILIPO-24 in Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Malawi from 03 Mar 2024 06:00 UTC to 14 Mar 2024 12:00 UTC

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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for FILIPO-24

in Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Malawi

Global Telecommunication Service

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

14/03 13:18 WTIO30FMEE141247

14/03 13:18 WTIO31FMEE141247

14/03 12:08 WTIO24FMEE141206

14/03 07:30 WTIO30FMEE140648

14/03 07:30 WTIO31FMEE140648

14/03 06:23 WTIO24FMEE140621

14/03 00:40 WTIO30FMEE140020

14/03 00:40 WTIO31FMEE140020

14/03 00:09 WTIO24FMEE140005

13/03 19:23 WTXS51PGTW132100

13/03 19:18 WTXS31PGTW132100

13/03 19:02 WTIO30FMEE131832

13/03 19:02 WTIO31FMEE131832

13/03 18:17 WTIO24FMEE131814

13/03 12:17 WTIO24FMEE131214

13/03 07:34 WTXS51PGTW130800

13/03 07:34 WTXS31PGTW130800

13/03 07:27 WTXS51PGTW130900

13/03 07:27 WTXS31PGTW130900

13/03 07:11 WTIO30FMEE130644

13/03 07:11 WTIO31FMEE130644

13/03 06:21 WTIO24FMEE130619

13/03 00:32 WTIO24FMEE130029

12/03 19:48 WTIO30FMEE121903

12/03 19:48 WTIO31FMEE121903

12/03 19:45 WTXS31PGTW122100

12/03 19:45 WTXS51PGTW122100

12/03 18:33 WTIO24FMEE121831

12/03 13:47 WTIO30FMEE121332

12/03 13:47 WTIO31FMEE121332

12/03 12:19 WTIO24FMEE121217

12/03 08:10 WTXS51PGTW120900

12/03 08:08 WTXS31PGTW120900

12/03 08:05 WTIO30FMEE120646

12/03 08:05 WTIO31FMEE120646

12/03 06:16 WTIO24FMEE120613

12/03 01:45 WTIO30FMEE120037

12/03 01:45 WTIO31FMEE120037

12/03 00:16 WTIO24FMEE120015

11/03 19:46 WTIO30FMEE111846

11/03 19:46 WTIO31FMEE111846

11/03 19:38 WTXS51PGTW112100

11/03 19:37 WTXS31PGTW112100

11/03 18:21 WTIO24FMEE111819

11/03 12:33 WTIO24FMEE111230

11/03 07:51 WTIO30FMEE110650

11/03 07:51 WTIO31FMEE110650

11/03 07:36 WTXS51PGTW110900

11/03 07:34 WTXS31PGTW110900

11/03 06:31 WTIO24FMEE110629

11/03 00:40 WTIO31FMEE110039

11/03 00:40 WTIO30FMEE110039

11/03 00:02 WTIO24FMEE110001

10/03 18:40 WTIO30FMEE101837

10/03 18:40 WTIO31FMEE101837

10/03 18:01 WTIO24FMEE101800

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.9 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 26 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 530 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 405 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 480 SW: 435 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 195 SW: 405 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 295

60H: 2024/03/17 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 360

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING AND
REMAINS LOW. A CENTER CAN BE LOCATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS WEBSITE, FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FILIPO HAS LOST ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO PHASE DIAGRAMS AND IS CURRENTLY
AT THE STAGE OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MOREOVER, AMSU
MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE DOES NOT EXCEED THE HEIGHT OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 0709Z MEASURED WINDS
OF 75KT, CONFIRMING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTEGRATION VIA THE TALWEG AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. WE THEREFORE
USE THIS VALUE AS THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE
DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO GENERATES A CYCLONIC SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AMSTERDAM COAST, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M AND UP TO 12M IN MAXIMUM
HEIGHT.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141247
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/8/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.1 S / 41.9 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 26 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SO: 530 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 405 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2024 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 480 SO: 435 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SO: 325 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 15/03/2024 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 295 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2024 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 360 SO: 415 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SO: 285 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 85

48H: 16/03/2024 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 195 SO: 405 NO: 530
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SO: 205 NO: 295

60H: 17/03/2024 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 360

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST LEGEREMENT ESSOUFLEE DEPUIS CE MATIN ET
RESTE FAIBLE. UN CENTRE EST LOCALISABLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES
VISIBLES DANS LES NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES AU NORD DE LA CONVECTION.
D'APRES LE SITE DU CIMSS FILIPO EST SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND
FORT DE SECTEUR NORD-NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. FILIPO A PERDU SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES D'APRES LES
DIAGRAMMES DE PHASE ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
POST TROPICALE. DE PLUS LES MESURES AMSU MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CHAUD
NE DEPASSE PAS LA HAUTEUR DE LA MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CEPENDANT LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 0709Z MESURE DES VENTS DE 75KT CONFIRMANT
L'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DUE A LA REPRISE DU SYSTEME PAR LE TALWEG ET
PAR L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE. ON RETIENT DONC CETTE VALEUR COMME
INTENSITE DES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. LES GUIDANCES SONT
STABLES ET PEU DIVERGENTES. LE SYSTEME FILIPO SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT
VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA PUISSANTE DORSALE
SUB-TROPICALE, ET EN BORDURE EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
QUI SE PROLONGE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'INTERACTION AVEC CE DERNIER
RESTE MAINTENANT PREPONDERANT ET LE FAIT ACCELERER RAPIDEMENT. IL
DEVRAIT S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN FIN
DE SEMAINE.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL VA CONTINUER DE S'ACCROITRE
SUBSTANTIELLEMENT D'ICI LES PROCHAINES HEURES, EN INJECTANT DE L'AIR
SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, QUI VA CONTINUER A TRANSITER SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FRAICHES. LA REPRISE PAR LE JET EN MARGE DU TALWEG DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE VONT EMMENER FILIPO A
S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE PLUS AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE MAIS AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE. A LA VEILLE DU WEEK-END, FILIPO DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UNE SECONDE VIE EN TANT QUE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, LOIN
DES TERRES HABITEES.

FILIPO GENERE UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE QUI DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LES COTES
D'AMSTERDAM AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M ET POUVANT ALLER JUSQU'A 12M EN
HAUTEUR MAXIMALE.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 141206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.9 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 26 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 190 NM, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 205
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 215 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 285 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
35.8 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 220 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
38.0 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 310 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 235 NM
34 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.3 S / 38.9 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 600 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 415 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SW: 445 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 400 SW: 445 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 110 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT, BUT
REMAINS WEAK. FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON
THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
CENTER IS STILL CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS FROM
DMSP-F18 AT 0131Z AND SSMIS FROM DMSP-F18 AT 0341Z. PHASE DIAGRAMS
AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM'S HOT CORE HAS
ADOPTED AN ASYMMETRICAL, SHALLOW STRUCTURE, CONFIRMING A BAROCLINIC
TRANSITION. FILIPO HAS THEREFORE LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND HAS JUST BECOME A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A CURVED
BAND HAS FORMED ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY, SHOWING A NEW ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM BY
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ITS INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED AND THAT ITS MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS ARE REACHING 60KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/8/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.3 S / 38.9 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 23 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SO: 600 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SO: 415 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SO: 445 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 130 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

24H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 425 SO: 415 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 85

36H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 400 SO: 445 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SO: 295 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SO: 110 NO: 85

48H: 16/03/2024 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 350 SO: 405 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST LEGEREMENT RENFORCEE DEPUIS LA NUIT
DERNIERE MAIS ELLE RESTE FAIBLE . FILIPO EST SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND FORT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PRESENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. UN CENTRE EST ENCORE BIEN
VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE DMSP-F18 DE 0131Z ET
SSMIS DE DMSP-F18 DE 0341Z. LES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASE ET LES DERNIERES
IMAGES VISIBLES NOUS INDIQUENT QUE LE CA UR CHAUD DU SYSTEME A PRIS
UNE STRUCTURE ASYMETRIQUE ET PEU PROFONDE, CONFIRMANT UNE TRANSITION
BAROCLINE. FILIPO A DONC PERDU SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET
VIENT DE PASSER AU STADE DE DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE. CEPENDANT UNE
BANDE INCURVE S'EST FORMEE SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE MONTRANT UNE
NOUVELLE ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION. DE PLUS LA REPRISE RAPIDE DU
SYSTEME PAR LE TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES NOUS INCITE A PENSER QUE
SON INTENSITE A AUGMENTE ET QUE SES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX ATTEINGENT
60KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. LES GUIDANCES SONT
STABLES ET PEU DIVERGENTES. LE SYSTEME FILIPO SE DEPLACE VERS LE
SUD-EST ENTRE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA PUISSANTE DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE,
ET EN BORDURE EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. L'INTERACTION
AVEC CE DERNIER RESTE MAINTENANT PREPONDERANT ET LE FAIT ACCELERER
RAPIDEMENT. IL DEVRAIT S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL VA CONTINUER DE S'ACCROITRE
SUBSTANTIELLEMENT D'ICI LES PROCHAINES HEURES, EN INJECTANT DE L'AIR
SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, QUI VA CONTINUER A TRANSITER SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FRAICHES. LA REPRISE PAR LE JET EN MARGE DU TALWEG DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE VONT EMMENER FILIPO A
S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE PLUS AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE MAIS AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE. A LA VEILLE DU WEEK-END, FILIPO DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UNE SECONDE VIE EN TANT QUE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, LOIN
DES TERRES HABITEES.

FILIPO NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140621
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.3 S / 38.9 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 210 NM, EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 155 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 225 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 195
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 265 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
35.0 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 235 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
37.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 240 NM
34 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 415 SW: 425 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 205

60H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 215 SW: 350 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACTIVITY REMAINS
WEAK AND UNMARKED, SUBJECT TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF FILIPO. THIS CONTEXT IS BEGINNING TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSE
TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX. THE 1953Z
ASCAT-C CONFIRMS AN ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LAYER PATTERN, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS SPEED OF 40KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTORS.
THE COMPLETE MICROWAVE SWATHS OF METOP-A AND B SUPERIMPOSED ON THE
LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. SUPPORTED BY THIS SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, OBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA (SATCON / DPRINT / DMINT) ARGUE IN
FAVOR OF MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A BAROCLINIC CONTEXT
INCREASINGLY MARKED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD,
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS, FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH
INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRICAL SURFACE WINDS AND AN
INCREASINGLY THIN UPPER-AIR WARM CORE. FILIPO COULD REACH THE STAGE
OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT
FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT
THE SAME TIME. IN FACT, FILIPO'S TRANSIT OVER LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND A SHARPLY RISING SHEAR CONTEXT SHOULD RAPIDLY CAUSE IT TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY. ON THE EVE OF THE
WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.8 S / 36.5 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2024 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 415 SO: 425 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 55

24H: 15/03/2024 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

36H: 15/03/2024 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 445 SO: 325 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 16/03/2024 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 205

60H: 16/03/2024 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 215 SO: 350 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

ON NOTE ASSEZ PEU D'A VOLUTION SUR LE SYSTEME AU COURS DE LA NUIT.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTION RESTE FAIBLE ET PEU MARQUA E, SOUMISE A UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST EN MARGE DU TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PRESENT AU SUD-EST DE FILIPO. CE CONTEXTE
COMMENCE A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DE LA PERIPHERIE NORD
ET OUEST DU VORTEX. L'ASCAT-C DE 1953Z CONFIRME UNE CONFIGURATION DE
BASSES COUCHES ALLONGEE DANS LE SENS NORD/SUD AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS
MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE 40KT DANS LES SECTEURS NORD-EST ET SUD-OUEST. LES
PASSES COMPLETES EN MICRO-ONDE DES METOP-A ET B SUPERPOSEES AUX
FAUCHEES DES DERNIERES ASCAT MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES EST SITUE BIEN AU NORD DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. ADOSSEES
A CETTE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE, LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES
(SATCON / DPRINT / DMINT) PLAIDENT POUR UN MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE A
40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. LES GUIDANCES SONT
STABLES ET PEU DIVERGENTES. LE SYSTEME FILIPO SE DEPLACE VERS LE
SUD-EST ENTRE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE, ET EN
BORDURE EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. L'INTERACTION AVEC
CE DERNIER RESTE MAINTENANT PREPONDERANT ET LE FAIT ACCELERER
RAPIDEMENT. IL DEVRAIT S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

FILIPO DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS UN CONTEXTE
BAROCLINE DE PLUS EN PLUS MARQUE EN MARGE EST DU TALWEG SUB-TROPICAL.
EN EFFET LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL VA S'ACCROITRE SUBSTANTIELLEMENT
D'ICI LES PROCHAINES HEURES, EN INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU
SYSTEME. SELON TOUTE VRAISEMBLANCE, SELON LES DERNIERES RUNS D'IFS ET
DE GFS, FILIPO DEVRAIT DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES PERDRE
GRADUELLEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES, AVEC UNE
ASYMETRIE DES VENTS DE SURFACE DE PLUS EN PLUS PRONONCEE ET UN COEUR
CHAUD D'ALTITUDE DE MOINS EN MOINS EPAIS. FILIPO POURRAIT ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CE JEUDI APRES-MIDI MAIS LES
GUIDANCES ACTUELLES TENDENT VERS UN DEBUT DE PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE AU MEME MOMENT. EN EFFET SON TRANSIT SUR DES EAUX
FAIBLEMENT ENERGETIQUES ET UN CONTEXTE CISAILLE EN NETTE HAUSSE
DEVRAIENT FAIRE PERDRE RAPIDEMENT A FILIPO SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES EN JOURNEE. A LA VEILLE DU WEEK-END, FILIPO DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UNE SECONDE VIE EN TANT QUE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, LOIN
DES TERRES HABITEES.

FILIPO NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 80 NM, EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 145
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
32.6 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 255 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
35.9 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 220 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240313182940
2024031318 17S FILIPO 007 02 145 20 SATL SYNP 015
T000 282S 0356E 040 R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 309S 0394E 050 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 340S 0448E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 28.2S 35.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 35.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 36.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS IT APPROACHED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
UNDER THE STRONG JET WINDS. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM
POLEWARD. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031212 230S 342E 45
1724031218 242S 338E 35
1724031300 250S 335E 35
1724031306 260S 331E 35
1724031312 266S 343E 45
1724031318 282S 356E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 28.2S 35.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 35.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 36.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS IT APPROACHED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
UNDER THE STRONG JET WINDS. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM
POLEWARD. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 35.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SW: 360 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.3 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85

60H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION INITIALLY CONTAINED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BY THE EFFECT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES HAS
GRADUALLY FADED AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
NOCTURNAL CYCLE, HOWEVER, IT SEEMS TO HAVE GRADUALLY RESUMED. THE
SUCCESSION OF THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR-2 FROM 1118Z,
SSMIS-F18 FROM 1416Z AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 1615Z) SHOW A VERY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCALIZED IN THE
SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, NO DOUBT DUE TO A NORTHERLY SHEAR GIVEN FOR
20KT BY CIMSS. INDEED, IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES THAT FILIPO IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE DVORAK METHOD IS LIMITED; IT IS
THEREFORE BASED ON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF SATCON AND DMINT/DPRINT AS
WELL AS MODEL ANALYSES, SUGGESTING MEAN WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT.

SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, FILIPO HAS BEEN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARDS,
ACCELERATING ITS COURSE AND MOVING AWAY FROM INHABITED LAND. THAT
SAID, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS
STABLE AND NOT VERY DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY, AND IT SHOULD EVACUATE
DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING ON THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ABOUT THE EFFECT OF
SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, BUT
FILIPO'S RAPID MOVEMENT COULD ENABLE IT TO ESCAPE. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 12UTC, CLOSE TO
60-65KT, BUT CURRENT FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT THE SAME TIME (THE SCENARIO OF
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY AT 12UTC
IS NO LONGER FORECAST, BUT IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT). IN FACT,
FILIPO'S MOVE INTO COLDER WATERS AND SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
CAUSE IT TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING
ONWARDS. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE
AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA :
- RAIN: 50-100MM STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, THEN IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.2 S / 35.6 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 21 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SO: 360 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 405 SO: 295 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.3 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 85

60H: 16/03/2024 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 215 SO: 315 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 205

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION INITIALEMENT CONTENUE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE CONVERGENCES DE BASSES COUCHES,
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ESTOMPEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
RECHAUFFES. SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE NOCTURNE, ELLE SEMBLE TOUTEFOIS
AVOIR TIMIDEMENT REPRIS. LA SUCCESSION DES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (AMSR-2 DE 1118Z, SSMIS-F18 DE 1416Z ET SSMIS-F16 DE
1615Z) MONTRENT UNE TRES LARGE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES AVEC UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST, A METTRE
SANS DOUTE SUR LE COMPTE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD DONNA E
POUR 20KT SELON LE CIMSS. EN EFFET, IL SEMBLERAIT SELON LES DERNIERES
IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU QUE FILIPO COMMENCE DEJA A INTERAGIR AVEC UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE LOCALISE AU SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. DANS CE CONTEXTE
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE BASEE SUR LA METHODE DVORAK EST LIMITEE ;
AUSSI, CELLE-CI EST BASEE SUR LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU SATCON ET
DU DMINT/DPRINT AINSI QUE DES ANALYSES MODELES, SUGGERANT DES VENTS
MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT.

DEPUIS LA FIN DE CET APRES-MIDI, FILIPO A PLONGA EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT SA COURSE, TOUT EN S'ELOIGNANT DES TERRES
HABITEES. CELA DIT, IL Y A PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE
TRAJECTOIRE. LES GUIDANCES SONT STABLES ET PEU DIVERGENTES. LE
SYSTEME FILIPO SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE LA BORDURE OUEST DE
LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE, ET SUR LA BORDURE EST D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. L'INTERACTION AVEC DE DERNIER, LE FAIT ACCELERER
RAPIDEMENT ET IL DEVRAIT S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

DE RETOUR SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, FILIPO DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE DE FORTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN THALWEG SUB-TROPICAL. IL EXISTE
ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSIFICATION EN FONCTION DE
L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AINSI QUE
SUR L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LE SYSTEME. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT
VA PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER MAIS AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE, FILIPO
POURRAIT S'EN AFFRANCHIR. IL DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE DE STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UN PIC D'INTENSITE EST
PREVU POUR JEUDI 12UTC PROCHE DE 60-65KT MAIS LES GUIDANCES ACTUELLES
TENDENT VERS UN DEBUT DE PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE AU MEME
MOMENT (LE SCENARIO D'UNE INTENSITE MAXIMALE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL JEUDI A 12UTC N'EST PLUS PREVILEGIE MAIS N'EST TOUTEFOIS PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLU). EN EFFET SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FROIDES ET UN CONTEXTE CISAILLE DEVRAIENT FAIRE PERDRE RAPIDEMENT A
FILIPO SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR. A LA
VEILLE DU WEEK-END, FILIPO DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE SECONDE VIE EN TANT
QUE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES:

NORD-EST AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- PLUIES : 50-100MM ENCORE POSSIBLES EN SOIREE PUIS AMELIORATION AU
COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 131814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 35.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALL WEATHER EXTENDING TO 280 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM
THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
30.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
34.3 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 131214
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 100NM, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 95
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
29.6 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
32.6 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 130800
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240313071750
2024031306 17S FILIPO 006 02 200 11 SATL 060
T000 260S 0331E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 282S 0349E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 309S 0386E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 339S 0439E 060 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 365S 0497E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 403S 0621E 040 R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 33.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 33.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.9S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.3S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 33.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031212 230S 342E 45
1724031218 242S 338E 35
1724031300 250S 335E 35
1724031306 260S 331E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 130800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 33.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 33.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.9S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.3S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 33.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240313071750
2024031306 17S FILIPO 006 02 200 11 SATL 060
T000 260S 0331E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 282S 0349E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 309S 0386E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 339S 0439E 060 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 365S 0497E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 403S 0621E 040 R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 33.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 33.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.9S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.3S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 33.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031212 230S 342E 45
1724031218 242S 338E 35
1724031300 250S 335E 35
1724031306 260S 331E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 33.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 33.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.9S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 33.9S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.3S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 33.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 33.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 130

24H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 270

72H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, FILIPO HAS RE-EMERGED OVER SEA JUST EAST OF
MAPUTO. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A CENTER A FEW NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF THE
ISLAND OF INHACA AT 06UTC. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY RESUMED, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ALLOWING A DVORAK ESTIMATE WITH A CURVED
BAND CONFIGURATION AT 2.0. FILIPO IS NOW A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS OF 35KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE
DIVERGENT. FILIPO IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THEN ACCELERATING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NOW BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A CONTEXT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE BANGS OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.WIND SHEAR IS
SET TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT FILIPO'S RAPID DISPLACEMENT MEANS
IT COULD BE OVERTAKEN BY WIND SHEAR.IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE
STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A PEAK AROUND
THURSDAY 12UTC, WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED.IFS
SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING, WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE SOFTER.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
GUIDELINES.
THEN, FROM THURSDAY EVENING, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN ITS POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER COLDER WATERS IN A CISIAL CONTEXT, GRADUALLY LOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE (MAPUTO PROVINCE):
- RAIN: 50 TO 100MM TODAY, THEN IMPROVING.
- SEA: WAVES OF 4 TO 5M IN THE MORNING, THEN CLEARLY IMPROVING DURING
THE DAY.

EAST ESWATINI :
- RAINS: 50 TO 100MM TODAY THEN IMPROVING.

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA (NORTH OF KWAZULU-NATAL):
- RAINS: AROUND 100MM TODAY THEN IMPROVING.
- SEA: WAVES OF 4 TO 5M, THEN CLEARLY IMPROVING IN THE EVENING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.0 S / 33.1 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 130

24H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 270

72H: 16/03/2024 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 185

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, FILIPO EST RESSORTI EN MER JUSTE A
L'EST DE MAPUTO. LES IMAGES VISIBLES PERMETTENT DE LOCALISER UN
CENTRE A QUELQUES MILLES NAUTIQUES A L'EST DE L'ILE DE INHACA A
06UTC. LA CONVECTION A PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS, ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PERMETTANT UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK AVEC UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE A 2.0. FILIPO EST DONC MAINTENANT AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 35KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRES. LES GUIDANCES SONT
STABLES ET PEU DIVERGENTES. LE SYSTEME FILIPO SE DEPLACE VERS LE
SUD-EST EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE, PUIS IL CIRCULE
EN S'ACCELERANT SUR LA BORDURE EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MAINTENANT DE NOUVEAU SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, FILIPO DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS UN
CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN THALWEG
SUB-TROPICAL. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSIFIACTION
EN FONCTION DE L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES AINSI QUE SUR L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT EN VENT SUR LE SYSTEME.
EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER MAIS AVEC
SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE FILIPO POURRAIT S'EN AFFRANCHIR. IL DEVRAIT
DONC ATTEINDRE DE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H AVEC UN PIC AUTOUR DE JEUDI 12UTC OU LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT. IFS PROPOSE UN CREUSEMENT
PLUS IMPORTANT ALORS QUE GFS EST UN PEU PLUS MOU. LA PREVISION DU
CMRS EST UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.
ENSUITE, A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, FILIPO DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
POST-TROPICAL SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES DANS UN CONTEXTE CISIALLE ET
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES:

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE MAPUTO):
- PLUIES : 50 A 100MM AUJOURD'HUI PUIS AMELIORATION.
- MER : VAGUES DE 4 A 5M EN MATINEE, PUIS NETTE AMELIORATION EN
JOURNEE.

EST ESWATINI :
- PLUIES : 50 A 100MM AUJOURD'HUI PUIS AMELIORATION.

NORD-EST AFRIQUE DU SUD (NORD KWAZULU-NATAL) :
- PLUIES : AUTOUR DE 100MM AUJOURD'HUI PUIS AMELIORATION.
- MER : VAGUES DE 4 A 5M, PUIS NETTE AMELIORATION EN SOIREE.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 130619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 33.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 100NM, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 75
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 145 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
28.5 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
31.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 130029
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 33.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 100NM, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 95
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
27.5 S / 34.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
30.0 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121903
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20232024
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 33.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 280 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/16 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

ON TUESDAY, FILIPO CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER MOZAMBIQUE. DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RARE NEAR THE CENTER, WITH
SUMMITS WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF THIS,
FILIPO IS STILL GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARITIME FRINGE
OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE. IN VIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD
STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND MODEL ANALYSES, FILIPO'S
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 35KT.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FORECAST FOR FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE
THAT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE
IT INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE
DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

OVER AFRICA, FILIPO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE COUNTRY'S LOW
RELIEF. AS FILIPO EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY OFF THE COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION
COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND
ON THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE
EFFECT OF SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER AIR PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH COULD
REACH 65KT ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY SHEAR CONTEXT, AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS,
FILIPO SHOULD DEFINITIVELY ADOPT AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE
CONFIGURATION.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MOZAMBIQUE :
- WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE
PROVINCE, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND
INHAMBANE PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAINFALL: 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (GAZA,
INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H NEAR THE CITY OF MAPUTO.
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF AROUND 4 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY, AT GAZA PROVINCE LEVEL.

SOUTH AFRICA:
-HEAVY RAIN OF 100 TO 150 MM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHEASTERN
KWAZULU-NATAL.
-DANGEROUS SEAS OVER NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL.

ESWATINI AND NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL):
- HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE BUT STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121903
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 33.7 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2024 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 280 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 305 SO: 350 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2024 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 350 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 215

2.C COMMENTAIRES:

AU COURS DE CE MARDI, FILIPO A CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR SUR LES TERRES
MOZAMBICAINES. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE TEND A TENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS
RARE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES
AU COURS DE L'APRES-MIDI ET DE LA SOIREE. MALGRE TOUT, FILIPO GENERE
ENCORE DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DE LA
PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION DE LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ET DES ANALYSES MODELES, L'INTENSITE
DE FILIPO EST PORTEE A 35KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR DE PREVISION CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
FILIPO. LE SYSTEME VA SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD SUR LA
BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DECALE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA LE FERA TRAVERSER
LES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. MERCREDI MATIN,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT PAR INTERACTION AVEC LA
BORDURE EST D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT AINSI
S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN DEUXIEME
PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

SUR LES TERRES AFRICAINES, FILIPO VA PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT DE SON
INTENSITE MAIS LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT
BIEN RESISTER GRACE AU RELIEF PEU MARQUE DU PAYS. A SA RESSORTIE AU
SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI MATIN, PROBABLEMENT AU LARGE DE LA
PROVINCE DE GAZA, LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE ASSEZ
RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN
TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX CA TIERES CHAUDES AU NORD DE 30S.
TOUTEFOIS, LE TAUX D'INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA DE LA QUALITE DE
L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES LORS DE CETTE RESSORTIE EN MER,
AINSI QUE L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME. CETTE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST VA S'ACCROITRE RAPIDEMENT
DES MERCREDI SOIR TOUT EN ACCOMPAGNANT LE SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST, CE QUI POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER SON EFFET.
CELA VA S'ACCOMPAGNER D'UNE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAITDONC COMMENCER A PERDRE RAPIDEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. SELON LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE,
LA FORCE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DU SYSTEME POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 65KT EN
JOURNA E DE JEUDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE ASSEZ CISAILLE, AU MOMENT DE LA
TRANSITION DU SYSTEME, PUIS GARDER UNE INTENSITE SOUTENUE JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME AURA ENTAME SA PHASE
POST-TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, FILIPO DEVRAIT ADOPTER
DEFINITIVEMENT UNE CONFIGURATION DE DA PRESSION EXTRATROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES:
MOZAMBIQUE :
- VENTS : PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT LE LONG DU LITTORAL
DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, GLISSANT PLUS AU SUD MERCREDI, LE LONG
DES PROVINCES DE GAZA ET D'INHAMBANE, AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
SUR LES TERRES. AMELIORATION ATTENDUE MERCREDI APRA S-MIDI.
- PLUIES : 50-100 MM EN 24 HEURES SUR LES PROVINCES DU SUD (GAZA,
INHAMBANE ET MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H PROCHE DE LA VILLE DE MAPUTO.
AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4 M AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE
GLISSANT AU SUD MERCREDI, AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE GAZA.

AFRIQUE DU SUD:
-FORTES PLUIE DE 100 A 150 MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H SUR LE NORD-EST
DU KWAZULU-NATAL.
-MER DANGEREUSE SUR LE NORD-EST DU KWAZULU-NATAL.

ESWATINI ET NORD-EST DU KWAZULU-NATAL):
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME. LES CUMULS DE PLUIES RESTERAIENT
INFERIEURS A 100 MM.=

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.5S 33.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 33.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.1S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.7S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.6S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 39.2S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 33.8E.
12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z
IS 1002 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240312192346
2024031218 17S FILIPO 005 02 195 15 SATL 060
T000 245S 0338E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 266S 0339E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 291S 0357E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 317S 0397E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 346S 0449E 060 R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 392S 0570E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.5S 33.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 33.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.1S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.7S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.6S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 39.2S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 33.8E.
12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 1002 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031200 207S 356E 55
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031212 230S 342E 45
1724031218 245S 338E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 121831
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 33.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
26.1 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121332
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 34.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100

36H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 405 SW: 250 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

SINCE THE LANDFALL THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
FILIPO HAS NATURALLY WEAKENED OVER THE MOZAMBICAN INLANDS, BUT
WITHOUT LOSING ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE. THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER
REMAINS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, WHOSE TOPS WARMED UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS, FILIPO IS STILL GENERATING
GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARITIME BORDER OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND
MODEL ANALYSES, FILIPO'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 40KT.

NO CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY REGARDING FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL
HEAD A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF A RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE ON TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERLAND FILIPO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S SHALLOW RELIEF.
AS FILIPO EXITS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY OFF THE
COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY,
IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFRT ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH AND OVER COASTAL WATERS PARTICULARLY WARM NORTH OF 30AOS.
HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYER DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE
EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.THIS
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL STRESS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WHILE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION,
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. HOWEVER, AS THE OCEAN
HEAT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS
RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST, FILIPO COULD PUNCTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY HEAVILY SHEARED CONTEXT, AS
IT TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FILIPO
SHOULD ADOPT AN INCREASINGLY ASSYMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE,
ASSOCIATED WITH A THINNER WARM CORE, AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES. FROM SATURDAY, FILIPO IS SET TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

MOZAMBIQUE:
- WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE
PROVINCE, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND
INHAMBANE PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAINFALL: 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (GAZA,
INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H NEAR THE CITY OF MAPUTO.
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF AROUND 4 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY, AT GAZA PROVINCE LEVEL.
- RESIDUAL SURGE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 CM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL
AREA BETWEEN INHASSORO AND VILANCULOS.
ESWATINI AND EXTREME EAST SOUTH AFRICA:
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRAJECTORY. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST, RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121332
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 34.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2024 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 110 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2024 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 100

36H: 14/03/2024 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2024 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 15/03/2024 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 15/03/2024 12 UTC: 37.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 405 SO: 250 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

DEPUIS SON ATTERRISSAGE CE MATIN, SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, FILIPO S'EST NATURELLEMENT AFFAIBLI SUR LES TERRES
MOZAMBICAINES, MAIS SANS PERDRE POUR AUTANT SA STRUCTURE TROPICALE.
LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE LOCALISE PROCHE DU CLUSTER
CONVECTIF, DONT LES SOMMETS SE SONT RECHAUFFES AU COURS DE
L'APRES-MIDI. MALGRE TOUT FILIPO GENERE ENCORE DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE. AU VU
DE L'EVOLUTION DE LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES, ET DES ANALYSES MODELES, L'INTENSITE DE FILIPO EST PORTEE A
40KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FILIPO.
LE SYSTEME VA SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS
LE SUD SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA LE
FERA TRAVERSER LES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE CE MARDI ET LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT
PAR INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE EST D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

SUR LES TERRES AFRICAINES, FILIPO VA PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT DE SON
INTENSITE MAIS LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT
BIEN RESISTER GRACE AU RELIEF PEU MARQUE DU PAYS. A SA RESSORTIE AU
SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI MATIN, PROBABLEMENT AU LARGE DE LA
PROVINCE DE GAZA, LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE ASSEZ
RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN
TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX CA TIERES PARTICULIA REMENT
CHAUDES AU NORD DE 30AOS. TOUTEFOIS, LE TAUX D'INTENSIFICATION
DEPENDRA DE LA QUALITE DE L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES LORS DE
CETTE RESSORTIE EN MER, AINSI QUE L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LA
STRUCTURE VERTICALE DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST VA S'ACCROITRE RAPIDEMENT DES MERCREDI SOIR TOUT
EN ACCOMPAGNANT LE SYSTA ME EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, CE QUI POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER SON EFFET. TOUTEFOIS AVEC LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PLUS OU MOINS PERDRE
RAPIDEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. SELON LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE, FILIPO POURRAIT ATTEINDRE PONCTUELLEMENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN JOURNA E DE JEUDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE
ASSEZ CISAILLE, AU MOMENT DE SA TRANSITION, PUIS GARDER UNE INTENSITE
SOUTENUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME AURA ENTAME SA
PHASE POST-TROPICALE. FILIPO DEVRAIT EN FIN DE SEMAINE ADOPTER UNE
STRUCTURE DE BASSEES COUCHES DE PLUS EN PLUS ASYMETRIQUE, ASSOCIEE A
UN COEUR CHAUD MOINS EPAIS, A MESURE DE SON ENFONCEMENT VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, FILIPO DEVRAIT ADOPTER
DEFINITIVEMENT UNE CONFIGURATION DE DA PRESSION EXTRATROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES:
MOZAMBIQUE :
- VENTS : PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT LE LONG DU LITTORAL
DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, GLISSANT PLUS AU SUD MERCREDI, LE LONG
DES PROVINCES DE GAZA ET D'INHAMBANE, AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
SUR LES TERRES. AMELIORATION ATTENDUE MERCREDI APRA S-MIDI.
- PLUIES : 50-100 MM EN 24 HEURES SUR LES PROVINCES DU SUD (GAZA,
INHAMBANE ET MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H PROCHE DE LA VILLE DE MAPUTO.
AMELIORATION EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4 M AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE
GLISSANT AU SUD MERCREDI, AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE GAZA.
- SURCOTE RESIDUELLE DE L'ORDRE DE 30 A 50 CM AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE INHASSORO ET VILANCULOS.
ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT
PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 121217
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 34.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 350 NMIN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 135 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
24.6 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
26.7 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240312073331
2024031206 17S FILIPO 004 02 225 11 SATL 060
T000 215S 0349E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 233S 0343E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 255S 0344E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 280S 0360E 060 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 307S 0397E 065 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 361S 0512E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 394S 0640E 035 R034 070 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 34.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 34.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.3S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.5S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.7S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 39.4S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 34.7E.
12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298
NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031118 206S 360E 50
1724031200 207S 357E 55
1724031200 207S 357E 55
1724031206 215S 349E 50
1724031206 215S 349E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 34.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 34.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.3S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.5S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.7S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 39.4S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 34.7E.
12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298
NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 35.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.3 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

THE FILIPO LANDED SHORTLY AFTER 03UTC, OVER THE NORTH OF INHAMBANE
PROVINCE, AND MORE PRECISELY NORTH OF THE TOWN OF INHASSORO, AT THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE SYSTEM'S INTERACTION WITH
MOZAMBIQUE'S INLAND AREA TEMPORARILY DELAMINATED THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD
PATTERN, AS SHOWN BY THE ANIMATIONS OF CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES
AND THE SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE PASS AT 0409Z. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS, CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STRENGTHENED OVERLAND CLOSE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON THE QUALITY OF THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, AS WELL AS
ON ANALYSES OF THE MAIN GUIDANCES. THE 45KT INTENSITY IS ALSO IN LINE
WITH OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS LANDED,
STRONG AND POSSIBLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS REMAIN CHANNELED ALONG THE
PROVINCE OF INHAMBANE.

NO CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY REGARDING FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL
HEAD A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF A RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE ON TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

FILIPO, WHICH HAS ONLY RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN AFRICA, WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S SHALLOW RELIEF.
AS FILIPO EXITS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY OFF THE
COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY,
IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFRT ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH AND OVER COASTAL WATERS PARTICULARLY WARM NORTH OF 30AOS.
HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYER DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE
EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM.THIS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL STRESS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHILE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT.
HOWEVER, AS THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY EVENING,
THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, FILIPO
COULD PUNCTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY,
IN A FAIRLY HEAVILY SHEARED CONTEXT, AS IT TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN
SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS
POST-TROPICAL PHASE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FILIPO SHOULD ADOPT AN
INCREASINGLY ASSYMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A
THINNER WARM CORE, AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED INLAND AREA IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE :
- WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE
PROVINCE TODAY, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND
MAPUTO PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY.
- RAINFALL: 100-150 MM IN 48 HOURS OVER THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE,
GAZA AND MAPUTO.
- WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH, UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- PROBABLE SURGE BETWEEN 100 AND 150 CM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA
BETWEEN INHASSORO AND VILANCULOS, POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE
SUBMERSION, SOUTH OF VILANCULOS.
ESWATINI AND EXTREME EAST OF SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRAJECTORY. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST, RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 35.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2024 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2024 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 36.3 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2024 06 UTC: 40.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

T=CI=/ (SUR TERRE)

LE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE FILIPO A ATTERRI PEU APRES 03UTC, SUR LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, ET PLUS PRA CISA MENT AU NORD DE LA
VILLE D'INHASSORO, AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
L'INTERACTION DU SYSTEME AVEC LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE A
TEMPORAIREMENT DELITE LA CONFIGUARATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME COMME EN
TEMOIGNENT LES ANIMATIONS DES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES AINSI
QUE LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS-F17 DE 0409Z. TOUTEFOIS AU COURS DES
DEUX DERNIERES HEURES LA CONVECTION S'EST LOCALEMENT RENFORCEE SUR
LES TERRES A PROXIMITE NORD-OUEST DU CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LA QUALITA DES
DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS SATELLITAIRES, AINSI QUE SUR LES ANALYSES DES
PRINCIPALES GUIDANCES. L'INTENSITE DE 45KT EST EGALEMENT CONFORMES
AUX ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES. BIEN QUE LE SYSTEME AIT
ATTERRI, DES VENTS FORTS VOIRE DESTRUCTEURS RESTENT CANALISES LE LONG
DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FILIPO.
LE SYSTEME VA SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS
LE SUD SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA LE
FERA TRAVERSER LES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE CE MARDI ET LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT
PAR INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE EST D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

ATTERRI DEPUIS PEU DE TEMPS SUR LES TERRES AFRICAINES, FILIPO VA
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT DE SON INTENSITE MAIS LA CIRCULATION
CYCLONIQUE DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT BIEN RESISTER GRACE AU RELIEF
PEU MARQUE DE LA ZONE. A SA RESSORTIE AU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI,
PROBABLEMENT AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE GAZA, LA REPRISE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE
FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR
DES EAUX CA TIERES PARTICULIA REMENT CHAUDES AU NORD DE 30AOS.
TOUTEFOIS, LE TAUX D'INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA DE LA QUALITE DE
L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES LORS DE CETTE RESSORTIE EN MER,
AINSI QUE L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LA STRUCTURE VERTICALE DU
SYSTEME. CETTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST VA
S'ACCROITRE RAPIDEMENT DES MERCREDI SOIR TOUT EN ACCOMPAGNANT LE
SYSTA ME EN DIRECTION DU DU SUD-EST, CE QUI POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT
DIMINUER SON EFFET. TOUTEFOIS AVEC LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
JEUDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. SELON LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE,
FILIPO POURRAIT ATTEINDRE PONCTUELLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
EN JOURNA E DE JEUDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE ASSEZ FORTEMENT CISAILLE, AU
MOMENT DE SA TRANSITION, PUIS GARDER UNE INTENSITE SOUTENUE JUSQU'A
VENDREDI ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME AURA ENTAME SA PHASE POST-TROPICALE.
FILIPO DEVRAIT EN FIN DE SEMAINE ADOPTER UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSEES
COUCHES DE PLUS EN PLUS ASSYMETRIQUE, ASSOCIEE A UN COEUR CHAUD MOINS
EPAIS, A MESURE DE SON ENFONCEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :
MOZAMBIQUE :
- VENTS : PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT LE LONG DU LITTORAL
DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE AUJOURD'HUI, GLISSANT PLUS AU SUD
MERCREDI, LE LONG DES PROVINCES DE GAZA ET DE MAPUTO, AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES. AMELIORATION ATTENDUE MERCREDI
EN FIN D'APRA S-MIDI OU EN SOIRA E.
- PLUIES : 100-150 MM EN 48 HEURES SUR LES PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE,
GAZA, ET MAPUTO.
- VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 6 M AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE GLISSANT
AU SUD, JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
- SURCOTE PROBABLE ENTRE 100 ET 150 CM AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE INHASSORO ET VILANCULOS, ASSOCIA
POTENTIELLEMENT A DE LA SUBMERSION MARINE, AU SUD DE VILANCULOS
ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT
PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 120613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 35.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
23.2 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
25.6 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 35.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100

48H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 315 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 405 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE WESTERN EDGE OF FILIPO'S LARGE INTENSE CORE IS NOW OVER THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHILE ITS ESTIMATED BAROMETRIC CENTER IS LESS THAN 50
KM OFFSHORE. ASCAT PASSES AT 1857Z AND 1945Z HAVE ENABLED TO LOCATE
THE 18UTC POINT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED,
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT, WHICH SLIGHTLY DELAYS
LANDFALL. IN ADDITION, THESE ASCAT WIND MEASUREMENTS ARE COMPATIBLE
WITH THE ASSESSED SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FINALLY, THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 18UTC WAS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, CLOSER
TO 35 NM THAN 30 NM. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN
HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS DEFINED AS THE PERIPHERAL BANDS
INTERACT WITH MOZAMBIQUE'S INLAND AREA. NEVERTHELESS, INTENSE
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER, TENDING TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH PART OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 00UTC, POSSIBLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF
MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED BY INERTIA AT 55KT, BUT STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S
ASYMMETRY. THESE VIOLENT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTH OF
INHAMBANE PROVINCE, CLOSE TO BAZARUTO ISLAND AND INHASSORO DISTRICT.

FILIPO WILL KEEP TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE LANDS THIS TUESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A LANDFALL EXPECTED AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, FILIPO WILL
TYPICALLY LOSE INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE INLAND AREA, BUT ITS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP FAIRLY WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S
LOW TERRAIN. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY,
INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER
WARM WATERS NORTH OF 32S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND
ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. WITH RAPIDLY INCREASNG
WIND SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS
RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS FAVOR A QUITE LATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ENABLED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. IT COULD THUS REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY AND THEN KEEP A VERY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY DESPITE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY AROUND 03UTC OVER THE EXTREME NORTH
OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SOUTH OF SAVE RIVER'S MOUTH AND NORTH OF
VILANCULOS, PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF THE TOWN OF INHASSORO.
- WINDS: GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL AFTER LANDFALL, ALONG THE
ENTIRE SOUTHERN COASTLINE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT.
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL
AREA.
- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER 48 HOURS OVER THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE
AND GAZA, THEN MAPUTO. LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL
AREA (INHAMBANE PROVINCE).
- WAVES NEAR 6 M UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
- STORM SURGE FROM 50CM TO 1M IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE
LANDFALL AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM INHASSORO TO VILANKULO.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 35.5 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2024 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2024 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2024 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100

48H: 14/03/2024 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2024 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 315 SO: 325 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 15/03/2024 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 405 SO: 360 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2024 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

LA BORDURE OUEST DU LARGE COEUR INTENSE DE FILIPO CONCERNE A PRESENT
LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE, ALORS QUE SON CENTRE BAROMETRIQUE ESTIME EST
ENCORE AU LARGE A MOINS DE 50 KM DES TERRES. DES PASSES ASCAT A 1857Z
ET 1945Z ONT PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE POINT DE 18UTC UN PEU PLUS AU
NORD-EST QUE L'ESTIMATION PRECEDENTE, TEMOIGNANT D'UN DEPLACEMENT UN
PEU PLUS LENT, CE QUI RETARDE UN PEU L'ATTERRISSAGE. DE PLUS, CES
MESURES DE VENT ASCAT SONT COMPATIBLES AVEC LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. ENFIN, LE RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX A 18UTC ETAIT PLUS
GRAND QU'ESTIME PRECEDEMMENT, PLUS PROCHE DE 35 MN QUE DE 30 MN. AU
COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU EN DEFINITION EN LIEN AVEC
L'INTERACTION DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES AVEC LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.
NEANMOINS, UNE CONVECTION CENTRALE INTENSE A PERSISTE, AYANT TENDANCE
A SE DEPORTER VERS LE SUD DU SYSTEME VERS 00UTC, POSSIBLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-NORD-OUEST. EN L'ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE PAR INERTIE A 55KT MAIS
LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SONT PROBABLEMENT PRESENTS SEULEMENT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ETANT DONNEE L'ASYMETRIE DU SYSTEME. CES VENTS
VIOLENTS CONCERNENT ACTUELLEMENT LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE,
A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE BAZARUTO ET DU DISTRICT D'INHASSORO.

FILIPO VA SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS LE SUD
SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA LE FERA
TRAVERSER LES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE CE MARDI ET LA NUIT
SUIVANTE. MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL
DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES
EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

APRES UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
FILIPO VA CLASSIQUEMENT PERDRE EN INTENSITE EN TRAVERSANT LES TERRES
MAIS LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT ASSEZ BIEN RESISTER GRACE AU
RELIEF PEU MARQUE DE LA ZONE. A LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME AU SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI, LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE
ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN
MARGE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX QUI RESTENT CHAUDES AU
NORD DE 32S. TOUTEFOIS, CETTE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA DE SON
ORGANISATION LORS DE SA RESSORTIE SUR MER. AVEC L'AUGMENTATION RAPIDE
DU CISAILLEMENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR ET LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE JEUDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. NEANMOINS, LES
DERNIERS RUNS DE MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN FAVEUR D'UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE ASSEZ TARDIVE ET D'UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE
FAVORISEE PAR UN SYSTEME SE DEPLACANT RAPIDEMENT DANS LA DIRECTION DU
CISAILLEMENT. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
JEUDI AU MOMENT DE LA TRANSITION, PUIS GARDER UNE INTENSITE SOUTENUE
JUSQU'A VENDREDI ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SERA POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU CE MARDI AUTOUR DE 03UTC SUR L'EXTREME NORD DE
LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, AU SUD DE L'EMBOUCHURE DU FLEUVE SAVE ET AU
NORD DE VILANCULOS, PROBABLEMENT AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA VILLE
D'INHASSORO.
- VENTS : COUP DE VENT POUVANT PERDURER BIEN APRES L'ATTERRISSAGE, LE
LONG DE L'ENSEMBLE DU LITTORAL PLUS AU SUD JUSQU'A MERCREDI ET LA
RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME. PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE CE MARDI MATIN
AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- PLUIES : 100-200 MM EN 48 HEURES SUR LES PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE ET
GAZA, PUIS MAPUTO. LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MM AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE (PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE).
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 6 M JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR.
- SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M A PROXIMITE SUD DE L'ATTERISSAGE,
EN PARTICULIER ENTRE INHASSORO ET VILANCULOS.

ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT PREVUE PAR
LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100 MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 120015
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 35.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 35.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

120H: 2024/03/16 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

FILIPO HAS INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND ITS CENTER
IS NOW LOCATED LESS THAN 100 KM OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEGREE OF CURVATURE OF THE CURVED BAND HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, EXCEEDING ONE COMPLETE TURN. AT THE HEAD OF THE
CURVED BAND, A CONVECTIVE CORE HAS FORMED, AS DEPICTED BY RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, BASED ON BOTH MET AND
CURVED-BAND DT, IS ESTIMATED AT 4.0-. SATCON ESTIMATES FROM 14UTC ARE
AROUND 60KT AND DPRINT VARIES BETWEEN 55 AND 66KT (WINDS 1MIN). THESE
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE AN INTENSITY OF 55KT (10MIN
WINDS). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS FAIRLY
LARGE (ESTIMATED AT 30 NM), MEANING THAT THE AREA AFFECTED BY VIOLENT
WINDS IS SIGNIFICANT (STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND TO AROUND 80 KM FROM
THE CENTER). THE CENTER IS LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER SAVE, DELIMITING THE PROVINCES OF SOFALA TO THE NORTH AND
INHAMBANE TO THE SOUTH, SO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE
COASTAL FRINGE AND THE ONSET OF STORM FORCE WINDS IS IMMINENT.

FILIPO WILL KEEP TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE LANDS AROUND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND
ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
FAIRLY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO IS THUS STILL
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. AS THE
SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION
COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS
NORTH OF 32S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. INDEED, WITH RAPIDLY INCREASNG
WIND SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS
RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS FAVOR A QUITE LATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ENABLED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. IT COULD THUS REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY AND THEN KEEP A VERY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY DESPITE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT (NEAR 00UTC) OVER THE EXTREME NORTH
OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SOUTH OF SAVE RIVER'S MOUTH AND NORTH OF
VILANCULOS.
- WINDS: GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL AFTER LANDFALL, ALONG THE
ENTIRE SOUTHERN COASTLINE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT.
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA.
- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM AND LOCALLY 300 MM OVER 48 HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE AND GAZA, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN
NEIGHBOURING PROVINCES.
- WAVES NEAR 6 M ONGOING AND UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
- EXPECTED SURGE OF AROUND 50CM TO 1M IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE
LANDFALL AREA.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 35.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2024 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2024 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2024 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SO: 335 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 480 SO: 360 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

120H: 16/03/2024 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 335 SO: 185 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

FILIPO A ATTEINT LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ET SON CENTRE SE
SITUE A MOINS DE 100 KM DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE DEGRE D'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE
INCURVEE A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER, DEPASSANT UN TOUR COMPLET. A LA
TETE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE, UN COEUR CONVECTIF S'EST CONSTITUE, MIS EN
EVIDENCE PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE, A LA FOIS BASEE SUR LE MET ET SUR UN DT EN BANDE
INCURVEE, MONTE A 4.0-. LES ESTIMATIONS SATCON DE 14UTC AVOISINENT
60KT ET LE DPRINT VARIE ENTRE 55 ET 66KT (VENTS 1MIN). CES DIFFERENTS
ELEMENTS PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER UNE INTENSITE A 55KT (VENTS 10MIN). A
NOTER QUE LE RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX EST ASSEZ GRAND (ESTIME A 30
MN), SIGNIFIANT QUE L'ETENDUE CONCERNEE PAR LES VENTS VIOLENTS EST
IMPORTANTE (LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE S'ETENDENT A ENVIRON 80 KM DU
CENTRE). LE CENTRE SE SITUE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE L'EMBOUCHURE DU
FLEUVE SAVE, DELIMITANT LES PROVINCES DE SOFALA AU NORD ET
D'INHAMBANE AU SUD, DONC LES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT CONCERNENT
DEJA LA FRANGE LITTORALE ET L'ARRIVEE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EST
IMMINENTE.

FILIPO VA SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS LE SUD
SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA LE FERA
TRAVERSER LES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE AUTOUR DE LA JOURNEE DE
MARDI. MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL
DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES
EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT BONNES A COURTE ECHEANCE
AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISEE PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. FILIPO
DEVRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'A UN ATTERISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. A LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME AU SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI, LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE
ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN
MARGE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX QUI RESTENT CHAUDES AU
NORD DE 32S. TOUTEFOIS, CETTE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA DE SON
ORGANISATION LORS DE SA RESSORTIE SUR MER. EN EFFET AVEC
L'AUGMENTATION RAPIDE DU CISAILLEMENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR ET LA
BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE JEUDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERS RUNS DE MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN
FAVEUR D'UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE ASSEZ TARDIVE ET D'UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE FAVORISEE PAR UN SYSTEME SE DEPLACANT
RAPIDEMENT DANS LA DIRECTION DU CISAILLEMENT. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL JEUDI AU MOMENT DE LA TRANSITION, PUIS
AVEC UNE INTENSITE RESTANT SOUTENUE JUSQU'A VENDREDI ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME SERA POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE ENTRE SUR L'EXTREME
NORD DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, AU SUD DE L'EMBOUCHURE DU FLEUVE
SAVE ET AU NORD DE VILANCULOS.
- VENTS : COUP DE VENT POUVANT PERDURER BIEN APRES L'ATTERRISSAGE, LE
LONG DE L'ENSEMBLE DU LITTORAL PLUS AU SUD JUSQU'A MERCREDI ET LA
RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME. PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE CETTE NUIT ET
DEMAIN MATIN PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- PLUIES : 100-200 MM ET LOCALEMENT 300 MM EN 48 HEURES, NOTAMMENT
SUR LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE ET GAZA ET DANS UNE MOINDRE MESURE LES
PROVINCES VOISINES
- VAGUES DE 6 M EN COURS ET JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR.
- SURCOTE ATTENDUE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M A PROXIMITE SUD DE
L'ATTERISSAGE.

ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT PREVUE PAR
LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES SUR 72H RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240311192308
2024031118 17S FILIPO 003 02 260 06 SATL 060
T000 206S 0358E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 216S 0346E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 231S 0340E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 251S 0340E 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 275S 0355E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 329S 0442E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 370S 0554E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 35.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 35.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.6S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.1S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.5S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 35.5E.
11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 204S 370E 45
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031112 205S 364E 50
1724031118 206S 358E 60
1724031118 206S 358E 60
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 35.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 35.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.6S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.1S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.5S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 35.5E.
11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS
993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111819
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 35.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111230
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
21.3 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 34.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100

120H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 305 SW: 370 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS IMPROVED,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS
EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE START OF A DECREASE OF THE DEEP
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING IN THE LATEST
IMAGES. INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 40KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, LATE SMAP DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
INTENSITY COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER (45KT).

LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST, WITH FILIPO TRACKING
WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD
SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE, WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, WITH A LANDFALL
EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND
ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A
WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO SHOULD THEREFORE
INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AND REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH
OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY
QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF
A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THIS
INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER
SEA. INDEED, WITH THE RAPID INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM COULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (AND THEREFORE
INTENSIFY LESS) IF IT EMERGES AT A WEAKER STAGE. THESE TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST RUNS BY GFS (RAPID
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH WEAKER INTENSITY) AND IFS (LATER
TRANSITION WITH STRONGER INTENSITY). THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE, NORTH OF
VILANCULOS.
- WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON , AND
MAY LAST WELL AFTER THE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST UP TO
WEDNESDAY AND THE EVACUATION OVER SEA. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS
TONGIHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM AND LOCALLY 300MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, OVER
INHAMBANE AND GAZA PROVINCE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE NEARBY
PROVINCES.
- WAVES OF 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
- STORM SURGE UP TO 50 CM TO 1M CLOSE TO THE LANDING.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 37.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2024 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 12/03/2024 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 75 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2024 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2024 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 14/03/2024 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2024 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100

120H: 16/03/2024 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 305 SO: 370 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 230 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
GAGNANT LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. CETTE EVOLUTION EST PROBABLEMENT LIEE A
UN DEBUT DE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST.
TOUTEFOIS, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TENDENT A SE RECHAUFFER SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES. L'INTENSITE A ETE MAINTENUE A 40KT EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DVORAK. TOUTEFOIS DES DONNEES SMAP
ARRIVEES TARDIVEMENT SUGGERENT QUE L'INTENSITE POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU
PLUS FORTE (45KT).

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES,
FILIPO SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE, QUI FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT. UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
PUIS SUD DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI EN BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DECALE AU SUD
PUIS SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA DEVRAIT FAIRE PASSER LE SYSTEME SUR
LE SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN FIN DE NUIT DE
LUNDI A MARDI. MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REGAGNER LE SUD DU CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL
DEVRAIT AINSI S'EVACUER DEFINITIVEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES
EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES S'AMELIORENT A COURTE ECHEANCE AVEC
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT, UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISEE NOTAMMENT PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
FILIPO DEVRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE ET ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE
N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A EXCLURE MAIS DEPENDRA DE LA VITESSE DE
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR CONVECTIF. A LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME AU SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI, LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE
ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN
MARGE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX QUI RESTENT CHAUDES AU
NORD DE 30S. TOUTEFOIS, CETTE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA DE SON
ORGANISATION LORS DE SA RESSORTIE SUR MER. EN EFFET AVEC
L'AUGMENTATION RAPIDE DU CISAILLEMENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR, ET
LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES (ET DONC MOINS
S'INTENSIFIER) EN CAS DE RESSORTIE A UN STADE FAIBLE. CES DEUX
SCENARIOS POSSIBLES SONT REFLETES PAR LES DERNIERS RUNS DE GFS
(TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE RAPIDE AVEC UNE INTENSITE PLUS FAIBLE) ET
IFS (TRANSITION PLUS TARDIVE AVEC UNE INTENSITE PLUS FORTE). LA
PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN SCENARIO PLUS PROCHE DU MODELE
EUROPEEN.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU ENTRE FIN NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ENTRE L'EXTREME
SUD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA ET LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE, AU NORD DE
VILANCULOS.
- VENTS : ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE
ET POUVANT PERDURER BIEN APRES L'ATTERRISSAGE, LE LONG DE L'ENSEMBLE
DU LITTORAL PLUS AU SUD JUSQU'A MERCREDI ET LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME.
POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN MATIN.
- PLUIES : 100-200 MM ET LOCALEMENT 300M SUR 72H NOTAMMENT SUR LA
PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE ET GAZA ET DANS UNE MOINDRE MESURE LES PROVINCES
VOISINES
- VAGUES DE 6 M ENTRE LUNDI MIDI ET MARDI SOIR.
- SURCOTE ATTENDUE DE L'ORDRE DE 50 CM A 1M A PROXIMITE DE
L'ATTERISSAGE

ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT PREVUE PAR
LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES SUR 72H RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 240311071738
2024031106 17S FILIPO 002 01 250 06 SATL 040
T000 203S 0373E 045 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 208S 0361E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 217S 0349E 045 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 232S 0342E 035
T048 251S 0342E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 296S 0387E 055 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 349S 0486E 055 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 37.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 37.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.8S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.7S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.2S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.6S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.9S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 37.0E.
11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198
NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1724030418 173S 426E 25
1724030500 181S 423E 25
1724030506 194S 419E 25
1724030512 207S 418E 25
1724030518 213S 415E 25
1724030600 219S 414E 25
1724030606 224S 412E 25
1724030612 228S 415E 25
1724030618 228S 417E 25
1724030700 229S 419E 25
1724030706 231S 417E 20
1724030712 230S 420E 20
1724030718 231S 420E 20
1724030800 234S 418E 20
1724030806 237S 411E 20
1724030812 234S 413E 20
1724030818 231S 415E 20
1724030900 228S 413E 20
1724030906 225S 410E 25
1724030912 219S 404E 25
1724030918 213S 401E 25
1724031000 208S 397E 25
1724031006 204S 392E 30
1724031012 200S 390E 30
1724031018 200S 385E 35
1724031100 201S 379E 40
1724031106 203S 373E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 37.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 37.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.8S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.7S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.2S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1S 34.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.6S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.9S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 37.0E.
11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198
NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
20.8 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
21.5 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 37.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2024 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95

24H: 12/03/2024 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 12/03/2024 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 95 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2024 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2024 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 130 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2024 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2024 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 16/03/2024 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SO: 230 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE DU SYSTEME S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS LES SOMMETS SE SONT UN PEU
RECHAUFFES. L'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE INCURVE A LEGEREMENT FAIBLI PAR
RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRECEDENT MAIS UNE ANALYSE EN T DE 3.0- RESTE
ENCORE VALABLE. FILIPO MAINTIENT DONC SON INTENSITE AVEC DES VENTS
ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT, CE QUE VALIDE LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE
1826UTC. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 2322UTC MONTRE ELLE AUSSI UNE
STRUCTURE QUI S'AMELIORE PROGRESSIVEMENT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES,
FILIPO SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24-36H, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE, QUI FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT. UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE DECALE AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA DEVRAIT FAIRE
PASSER LE SYSTEME SUR UNE PARTIE DES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE,
AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. IL
EXISTE CEPENDANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE D'ATTERRISSAGE DE
L'ORDRE DE 6H ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES. DE PLUS EN LIEN AVEC
CETTE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE, L'INCURSION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE
DANS LES TERRES RESTENT INCERTAINE, DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME DONC DE L'ALTITUDE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR (UNE PLUS FORTE
INTENSITE SERAIT PROPICE A UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE LONGEANT
DAVANTAGE LA COTE, TANDIS QU'UNE PLUS FAIBLE INTENSITE PERMETTRAIT UN
ENFONCEMENT PLUS FRANC DU SYSTEME DANS LES TERRES). PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE A ETE UN PEU RALENTIE MAIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'ACCELERANT PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES,
PERMETTANT AINSI L'EVACUATION DEFINITIVE DU SYSTEME SUR L'OCEAN
AUSTRAL.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONTINUENT DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE, UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISEE PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET UNE
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE QUI S'AMELIORE AUSSI. IL EST DONC PREVU UNE
INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H JUSQU'A SON
ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A
EXCLURE MAIS DEPENDRA DE LA VITESSE DE CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR
CONVECTIF. A LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME AU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI,
LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN
CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX QUI RESTENT CHAUDES AU NORD DE 30S. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DYNAMIQUE BAROCLINE, FILIPO POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI AVANT DE
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE
JEUDI SOIR. AINSI VENDREDI, SOUS L'INTERACTION AVEC UN JET DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES ET L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, FILIPO
DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU ENTRE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ENTRE L'EXTREME
SUD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA ET LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.
- VENTS : ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI
APRES-MIDI OU SOIR ET POUVANT PERDURER BIEN APRES L'ATTERRISSAGE LE
LONG DU LITTORAL ET JUSQU'A MERCREDI MIDI A L'EXTREME SUD DU PAYS.
POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE MARDI MATIN PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT.
- PLUIES : 150-250 MM SUR 72H SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE, AU SUD DE BEIRA ET AU NORD DE MAPUTO, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
MAXIMALE SUR LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M ENTRE LUNDI MIDI ET MARDI SOIR.

ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT PREVUE PAR
LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES SUR 72H RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 37.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95

24H: 2024/03/12 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND OF CLOUDS HAS
CONTINUED, BUT THE TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE. THE CURVED BAND HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, BUT AN
ANALYSIS IN T OF 3.0- IS STILL VALID. FILIPO THEREFORE MAINTAINS ITS
INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 40KT, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY
THE 1826UTC PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH. THE GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2322UTC
ALSO SHOWS A PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING STRUCTURE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK OVER THE SHORT TERM, FILIPO IS
TRACKING WEST THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY
THEN SOUTHERLY TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A 6-HOUR UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDFALL. MOREOVER, IN LINE
WITH THIS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING, THE EXTENT OF THE INLAND INCURSION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE THE ALTITUDE OF THE STEERING FLOW (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE TO A MERIDIAN TRACK ALONG THE COAST, WHILE A LOWER
INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INTO THE
LAND). SUBSEQUENTLY, THE TRACK WAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE, BUT FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS,
ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
SHEAR STRESS, AN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN EVACUATION
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
THAT IS ALSO IMPROVING. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE
CORE CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON
WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
AND IN WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS, FILIPO COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A MID-LATITUDE JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER WATERS,
FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE
PROVINCE.
- WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL
UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS
INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE
COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA
OF LANDFALL.
- RAINFALL: 150-250 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF
BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE
PROVINCE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110001
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 37.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
20.5 S / 36.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
21.2 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 100

24H: 2024/03/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 480 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED-BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING IN THE
LAST FEW MOMENTS AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, A
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.0- IS POSSIBLE AND ARGUES IN FAVOR OF A NAMING.
THE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER OF MADAGASCAR THUS ANNOUNCED THE NAMING IN
FILIPO OF THE SYSTEM 08-20232024 AT 16UTC THIS SUNDAY. WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40KT, FILIPO HAS REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, FILIPO IS TRACKING WEST THEN
WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY TURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS
SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE INLAND
AREA, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE INLAND INCURSION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE ALTITUDE
OF THE DIRECTING FLOW (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A
MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY ALONG THE COAST, WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INLAND). FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING IT TO
EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
SHEAR STRESS, AN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN EVACUATION
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
THAT IS ALSO IMPROVING. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE
CORE CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON
WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
AND IN WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY, INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
WATERS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOSS OF FILIPO'S TROPICAL STRUCTURE,
STARTING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE
PROVINCE.
- WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL
UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS
INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE
COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA
OF LANDFALL.
- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF
BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE
PROVINCE. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AT THE
JUNCTION OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES OVER THE NEXT 12-24H IN
CONNECTION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE CURVED BAND.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 38.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2024 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 100

24H: 11/03/2024 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 12/03/2024 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2024 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2024 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2024 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2024 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 480 SO: 345 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 15/03/2024 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE DU SYSTEME S'EST MAINTENUE ET PRESENTE AU COURS DES DERNIERS
INSTANTS UN RENFORCEMENT DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AVEC DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX PLUS FROIDS. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
A 3.0- EST POSSIBLE ET PLAIDE POUR UN BAPTEME. LE CENTRE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A AINSI ANNONCE LE NOMMAGE EN FILIPO DU
SYSTEME 08-20232024 A 16UTC CE DIMANCHE. DES VENTS ESTIMES A 40KT
PERMETTENT DONC A FILIPO D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, FILIPO SUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24-36H, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE, QUI FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT. UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
PUIS SUD DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI EN BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DECALE AU SUD
PUIS SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. CELA DEVRAIT FAIRE PASSER LE SYSTEME SUR
UNE PARTIE DES TERRES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE
PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. L'INCURSION PLUS OU MOINS
IMPORTANTE DANS LES TERRES RESTENT INCERTAINE, DEPENDANT DE
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DONC DE L'ALTITUDE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR (UNE PLUS
FORTE INTENSITE SERAIT PROPICE A UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE LONGEANT
DAVANTAGE LA COTE, TANDIS QU'UNE PLUS FAIBLE INTENSITE PERMETTRAIT UN
ENFONCEMENT PLUS FRANC DU SYSTEME DANS LES TERRES). A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN
S'ACCELERANT PAR INTERACTION AVEC LA BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES, PERMETTANT AINSI L'EVACUATION DEFINITIVE DU SYSTEME SUR
L'OCEAN AUSTRAL.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONTINUENT DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE, UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISEE PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET UNE
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE QUI S'AMELIORE AUSSI. IL EST DONC PREVU UNE
INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H JUSQU'A SON
ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A
EXCLURE MAIS DEPENDRA DE LA VITESSE DE CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR
CONVECTIF. A LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME AU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI,
LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE ASSEZ RAPIDE, DANS UN
CONTEXTE DE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
SUBTROPICAL ET SUR DES EAUX QUI RESTENT CHAUDES AU NORD DE 30S. JEUDI
SOIR ET VENDREDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UN JET DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A FAIRE
PERDRE LA STRUCTURE TROPICALE DE FILIPO, ENTAMANT AINSI UNE
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES
HEURES :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU ENTRE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ENTRE L'EXTREME
SUD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA ET LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.
- VENTS : ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI
APRES-MIDI OU SOIR ET POUVANT PERDURER BIEN APRES L'ATTERRISSAGE LE
LONG DU LITTORAL ET JUSQU'A MERCREDI MIDI A L'EXTREME SUD DU PAYS.
POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE MARDI MATIN PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT.
- PLUIES : 100-200 MM SUR 72H SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE, AU SUD DE BEIRA ET AU NORD DE MAPUTO, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
MAXIMALE SUR LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE. DES FORTES PLUIES SONT
TOUTEFOIS AUSSI ATTENDUES PLUS AU NORD A LA JONCTION DES PROVINCES DE
NAMPULA ET DE ZAMBEZIA AU COURS DE PROCHAINES 12-24H EN LIEN AVEC
L'EXTREMITE NORD DE LA BANDE INCURVEE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M ENTRE LUNDI MIDI ET MARDI SOIR.

ESWATINI ET EXTREME EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD :
- DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES MAIS FORTEMENT DEPENDANTES DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLEMENT PREVUE PAR
LE CMRS, LES CUMULS DE PLUIES SUR 72H RESTERAIENT INFERIEURS A 100
MM.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101800
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
20.8 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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