Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-12 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2012 09:00 UTC to 21:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-12

in Mexico

14 Jun 2012 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-12 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2012-000104-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	175 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (16 Jun 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	175 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 110000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	14 Jun 2012 03:00	121	No people	No people	Mexico
2	14 Jun 2012 09:00	130	No people	No people	Mexico
3	14 Jun 2012 15:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
4	14 Jun 2012 21:00	148	No people	110 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	6/14/2012 3:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.4, -92.4
2	6/14/2012 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	10.3, -93.3
3	6/14/2012 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.9, -93.6
4	6/14/2012 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	11.8, -94.2
4	6/15/2012 6:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	12.9, -95
4	6/15/2012 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	no people	780000 people	14.2, -96.2	Mexico
4	6/16/2012 6:00:00 AM	Category 1	148	110000 people	1.8 million people	15.3, -97.3	Mexico
4	6/16/2012 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	148	710000 people	2.9 million people	16.1, -98.4	Mexico
4	6/17/2012 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	111	530000 people	1.4 million people	16.5, -100	Mexico
4	6/18/2012 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	980000 people	16, -100	Mexico
4	6/19/2012 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	15.5, -99.5

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Oaxaca
Mexico	Guerrero

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Huanacastle	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Cuajinicuilapa	Guerrero	Mexico	Village	9300 people
Las Conchitas	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Pinotepa	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Santiago	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Armenta	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Yegüey	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Achiotes	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Chico Ometepec	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Ciruelo	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
El Platanillo	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
La Tuza	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Lo de Liborio	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
Pie Cerro	Oaxaca	Mexico	Village	-
San Nicolás	Guerrero	Mexico	Village	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ta lo de Soto		149
Pinotepa Nacional	PNO	unknown

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Puerto Escondido, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Jun 2012 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 16 Jun 2012 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Puerto Escondido	Mexico	0.6
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Chagues	Mexico	0.5
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	La Redonda	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Tlachicon	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Paso Hondo	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 05:00	Bajos de Chila	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 07:00	La Tuza	Mexico	0.3
	16 Jun 2012 08:00	Pie Cerro	Mexico	0.3
	15 Jun 2012 22:00	Lagarto	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Bajo de Arenal	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 01:00	Loma Larga	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 01:00	Puerto Angel	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 10:00	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 13:00	Marquelia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 13:00	Copala	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Chicapa		0.2
	15 Jun 2012 22:00	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Ayutla	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Mirador	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Tangolunda	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 15:00	Mauricio Gutierrez	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Laja	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	Santa Maria Xandani	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 19:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 19:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 23:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2012 02:00	El Marques	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.