Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NICOLE-16 in Bermuda from 04 Oct 2016 15:00 UTC to 08 Oct 2016 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-16

in Bermuda

08 Oct 2016 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-16 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Bermuda
Exposed population	50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (13 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Bermuda)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 69000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Oct 2016 15:00	83	---	No people
2	04 Oct 2016 21:00	83	---	No people
3	05 Oct 2016 03:00	83	---	No people
4	05 Oct 2016 09:00	83	---	No people
5	05 Oct 2016 15:00	83	---	No people
6	05 Oct 2016 21:00	111	---	No people
7	06 Oct 2016 03:00	111	---	No people
8	06 Oct 2016 09:00	111	---	No people
9	06 Oct 2016 15:00	111	---	No people
10	06 Oct 2016 18:00	148	---	No people
11	06 Oct 2016 21:00	157	---	No people
12	07 Oct 2016 03:00	167	---	No people
13	07 Oct 2016 09:00	157	---	No people
14	07 Oct 2016 15:00	111	---	No people	Bermuda
15	07 Oct 2016 21:00	111	---	No people
16	08 Oct 2016 03:00	111	---	No people	Bermuda

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Oct 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	23.8, -60.4
2	04 Oct 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.1, -61.1
3	05 Oct 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.2, -61.3
4	05 Oct 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.3, -61.8
5	05 Oct 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	25, -62.8
6	05 Oct 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	25.3, -63.5
7	06 Oct 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	26, -64.1
8	06 Oct 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	26.5, -64.7
9	06 Oct 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	26.8, -64.8
10	06 Oct 2016 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	27.3, -65
11	06 Oct 2016 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	27.5, -65.1
12	07 Oct 2016 03:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	27.4, -65.2
13	07 Oct 2016 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	27.3, -65.2
14	07 Oct 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	27.5, -65.3
15	07 Oct 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	27, -65.2
16	08 Oct 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	26.3, -65.3
16	08 Oct 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	25.5, -65.1
16	09 Oct 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.7, -64.9
16	09 Oct 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.8, -65.2
16	10 Oct 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	25.5, -65.5
16	11 Oct 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	54000 people	27.7, -65.8	Bermuda
16	12 Oct 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	69000 people	30.5, -66	Bermuda
16	13 Oct 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	33.5, -65.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Bermuda

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Bermuda	Bermuda

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Hamilton		Bermuda	Capital	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bermuda International	BDA	4	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Bermuda		Bermuda
Hamilton	BMBDA	Bermuda
Somerset		Bermuda
Saint George	BMSGE	Bermuda

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Hamilton, Bermuda. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2016 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 57 of 18 Oct 2016 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Oct 2016 14:00	Hamilton	Bermuda	0.6

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.