Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DUMAZILE-18 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar from 02 Mar 2018 12:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (04 Mar 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	194	8.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
	2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	213	8.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 54.2
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.8, 54.4
2	03 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.1 million people	-13.8, 53.9	Madagascar
2	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	2.9 million people	-15.2, 53.2	Madagascar
2	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	5.1 million people	-16.9, 52.6	Madagascar
2	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	7.6 million people	-18.7, 52.4	Madagascar
2	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	5.1 million people	-22.1, 53.3	Madagascar
2	06 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	2.1 million people	-25.1, 55.5	Mauritius
2	07 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-28.1, 58.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Maroantsetra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Mar 2018 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (104 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 02 Mar 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 10:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 14:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 17:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 13:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 15:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 15:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Mar 2018 11:00	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 04:00	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 10:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 21:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 12:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 11:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 10:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 10:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 14:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 10:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 02:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 02:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 10:00	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 01:00	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 01:00	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 08:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 14:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 14:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 02:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 02:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Le Port	Reunion	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 22:00	La Possession	Reunion	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 22:00	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 19:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 16:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 01:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 19:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 09:00	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.