Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 20 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
10 min - 1 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	1.8 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (22 Feb 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 00:00 - 22 Feb 2022 12:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (10-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	56	No people	No people
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	56	No people	No people
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	65	No people	No people
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	176	940 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	176	6.8 million	160 thousand	Madagascar
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	176	10.3 million	460 thousand	Madagascar
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	194	12.5 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	213	11.8 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	176	16.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11.2 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	176	15.2 million	1 million	Madagascar
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	176	14.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	185	16.1 million	1 million	Madagascar
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	185	13.4 million	1.8 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 69.3
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 68.1
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14, 67.3
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.9, 65.9
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 64.8
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 63.7
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.7, 63.2
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.8, 62.4
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.5, 61.7
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15, 60.8
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.5, 59.8
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.9, 58.7
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.3, 57.9
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.7, 57.2
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17, 56.6
15	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.7, 55.3
15	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.1, 53.9
15	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	2.6 million people	-18.7, 52.6
15	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	780000 people	12.7 million people	-19.5, 50.6
15	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	1.8 million people	12.1 million people	-20.3, 48.8	Madagascar
15	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.2, 47	Madagascar
15	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	700000 people	-23, 44.2	Madagascar
15	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	690000 people	-24.6, 42.3
15	24 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-26.5, 41.1
15	25 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-28.5, 40.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Ambalavontaka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (75 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 20 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.8
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.7
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.7
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankilibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Saint Augustin	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Ankilimivony	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min