Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 22 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
10 min - 1 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (22 Feb 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 12:00 - 23 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (10-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	56	No people	No people
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	56	No people	No people
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	65	No people	No people
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	176	940 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	176	6.8 million	160 thousand	Madagascar
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	176	10.3 million	460 thousand	Madagascar
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	194	12.5 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	213	11.8 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	176	16.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11.2 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	176	15.2 million	1 million	Madagascar
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	176	14.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	185	16.1 million	1 million	Madagascar
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	185	13.4 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
16	20 Feb 2022 06:00	157	2.2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17	20 Feb 2022 12:00	176	4.5 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
18	20 Feb 2022 18:00	185	16.4 million	470 thousand	Madagascar
19	21 Feb 2022 00:00	194	12 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
20	21 Feb 2022 06:00	185	17 million	2.8 million	Madagascar
21	21 Feb 2022 12:00	176	15.6 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
22	21 Feb 2022 18:00	176	16.9 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
23	22 Feb 2022 00:00	167	16.7 million	2 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14.1, 69.2
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 68.3
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14, 67.3
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.9, 65.9
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.6, 64.8
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.7, 63.7
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 63.1
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14, 62.6
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.5, 61.8
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.4, 60.9
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.7, 59.8
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.9, 58.9
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.9, 57.2
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17, 56.6
16	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.3, 55.9
17	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-17.7, 55.2
18	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-17.6, 54.6
19	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-17.6, 54.1
20	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.9, 53.5
21	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-18.2, 52.8
22	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	8.1 million people	-18.4, 52
23	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	350000 people	12.2 million people	-19.2, 51.3
23	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	2 million people	13.5 million people	-20.8, 49.3
23	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	10.9 million people	-22.1, 47.7	Madagascar
23	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	6.1 million people	-23.7, 45.7	Madagascar
23	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	2.3 million people	-25.6, 43.6
23	24 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-27.8, 42.4
23	25 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-29.8, 41.9
23	25 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-31.5, 42.4
23	26 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-32.8, 43.4
23	26 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-33.4, 43.8
23	27 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-34.6, 43.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Anakitaina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (150 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 21 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 05:00	Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 14:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min