Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2.3 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (22 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
22 Feb 2022 18:00 - 23 Feb 2022 06:00

in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 176 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)
Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 Feb 2022 12:00 56 No people No people
Green 2 16 Feb 2022 18:00 56 No people No people
Green 3 17 Feb 2022 00:00 65 No people No people
Green 4 17 Feb 2022 06:00 176 940 thousand No people Madagascar
Orange 5 17 Feb 2022 12:00 176 6.8 million 160 thousand Madagascar
Orange 6 17 Feb 2022 18:00 176 10.3 million 460 thousand Madagascar
Orange 7 18 Feb 2022 00:00 176 11 million 1.4 million Madagascar
Orange 8 18 Feb 2022 06:00 194 12.5 million 340 thousand Madagascar
Orange 9 18 Feb 2022 12:00 213 11.8 million 1.1 million Madagascar
Orange 10 18 Feb 2022 18:00 176 16.3 million 2.2 million Madagascar
Orange 11 19 Feb 2022 00:00 176 11.2 million 1.6 million Madagascar
Red 12 19 Feb 2022 06:00 176 15.2 million 1 million Madagascar
Red 13 19 Feb 2022 12:00 176 14.3 million 2.2 million Madagascar
Red 14 19 Feb 2022 18:00 185 16.1 million 1 million Madagascar
Red 15 20 Feb 2022 00:00 185 13.4 million 1.8 million Madagascar
Green 16 20 Feb 2022 06:00 157 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 17 20 Feb 2022 12:00 176 4.5 million No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
Red 18 20 Feb 2022 18:00 185 16.4 million 470 thousand Madagascar
Red 19 21 Feb 2022 00:00 194 12 million 1.3 million Madagascar
Red 20 21 Feb 2022 06:00 185 17 million 2.8 million Madagascar
Red 21 21 Feb 2022 12:00 176 15.6 million 2.3 million Madagascar
Red 22 21 Feb 2022 18:00 176 16.9 million 2.3 million Madagascar
Red 23 22 Feb 2022 00:00 167 16.7 million 2 million Madagascar
Red 24 22 Feb 2022 06:00 139 17.7 million 4.1 million Madagascar
Red 25 22 Feb 2022 12:00 139 17.3 million 3.2 million Madagascar
Red 26 22 Feb 2022 18:00 148 17.6 million 2.3 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
1 16 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14, 69.3
2 16 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14, 68.1
3 17 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -14, 67.3
4 17 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.9, 65.9
5 17 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.5, 64.8
6 17 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.5, 63.7
7 18 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -13.7, 63.2
8 18 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -13.8, 62.4
9 18 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -14.5, 61.7
10 18 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15, 60.8
11 19 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15.5, 59.8
12 19 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15.9, 58.7
GREEN
13 19 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -16.3, 57.9
14 19 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -16.7, 57.2
15 20 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17, 56.6
16 20 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -17.3, 55.9
17 20 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -17.7, 55.2
18 20 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -17.5, 54.5
19 21 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.6, 54
20 21 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -17.8, 53.3
21 21 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -18.1, 52.7
GREEN
22 21 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 8.1 million people -18.5, 52.1
ORANGE
23 22 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 350000 people 12.2 million people -19.2, 51.2
RED
24 22 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 139 2.6 million people 14.4 million people -19.9, 50.3
RED
25 22 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 139 3.1 million people 13.9 million people -20.7, 49.5
RED
26 22 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 1 148 1.9 million people 14.2 million people -21.5, 48.7
GREEN
26 23 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 8.4 million people -22.7, 47.1 Madagascar
GREEN
26 23 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 3.2 million people -25.1, 44.9 Madagascar
GREEN
26 24 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.2 million people -26.4, 43.1
GREEN
26 24 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -28.4, 42
GREEN
26 25 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -30.6, 41.7
GREEN
26 25 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -32.1, 42.4
GREEN
26 26 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -33, 43.2
GREEN
26 26 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -33.8, 43.4
GREEN
26 27 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -35.1, 42.6
GREEN
26 27 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -37.6, 41.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Toamasina Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
Sahasinaka Fianarantsoa Madagascar City -
Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
Farafangana Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 25000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
Farafangana RVA 8 Civ. Unpaved No 3400
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
Farafangana MGRVA Madagascar
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Savana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (196 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 25 of 22 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Feb 2022 22:00 Savana Madagascar  0.8
22 Feb 2022 22:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.8
22 Feb 2022 19:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.6
22 Feb 2022 20:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.6
22 Feb 2022 21:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.6
22 Feb 2022 20:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.5
22 Feb 2022 23:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.5
22 Feb 2022 19:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.5
22 Feb 2022 19:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.5
22 Feb 2022 20:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.5
22 Feb 2022 18:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 18:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 15:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 23:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.4
23 Feb 2022 04:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 17:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.4
23 Feb 2022 03:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.4
22 Feb 2022 15:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 05:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 02:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
22 Feb 2022 14:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 02:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.3
22 Feb 2022 23:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 20:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 20:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.3
22 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 21:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 04:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
22 Feb 2022 15:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 03:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 16:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 16:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 16:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Tanilahy Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Androka Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 05:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.3
22 Feb 2022 13:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 05:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
23 Feb 2022 04:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 06:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 19:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 21:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 06:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 04:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 23:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 20:00 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 07:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 19:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 18:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 00:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 05:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 03:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 07:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 21:00 Belefotsy Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 05:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 17:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Manombo Madagascar  0.2
24 Feb 2022 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 11:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 14:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 14:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 14:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 17:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 06:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
22 Feb 2022 02:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 06:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 07:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 07:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 06:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Belalanda Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Tulear Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 19:00 Antseranambe Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 09:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Elanja Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Besasavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 07:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 08:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 17:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 01:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Itampolo Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 03:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 03:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 03:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 13:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 06:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 04:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 14:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Ampary Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Lavavolo Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 02:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 21:00 Anakao Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 21:00 Soalara Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 09:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 09:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 09:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 02:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 12:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 10:00 Ankilihago Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Belay Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Analapetsa Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Faux-Cap Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 11:00 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 16:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 23:00 Miary Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 23:00 Anja-Belitsaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 22:00 Ankazoabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Feb 2022 02:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 08:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 13:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Feb 2022 13:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
24 Feb 2022 01:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
23 Feb 2022 13:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1