Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 21 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
10 min - 1 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	1.3 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (22 Feb 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 12:00 - 23 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (10-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	194 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	56	No people	No people
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	56	No people	No people
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	65	No people	No people
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	176	940 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	176	6.8 million	160 thousand	Madagascar
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	176	10.3 million	460 thousand	Madagascar
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	194	12.5 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	213	11.8 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	176	16.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11.2 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	176	15.2 million	1 million	Madagascar
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	176	14.3 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	185	16.1 million	1 million	Madagascar
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	185	13.4 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
16	20 Feb 2022 06:00	157	2.2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17	20 Feb 2022 12:00	176	4.5 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
18	20 Feb 2022 18:00	185	16.4 million	470 thousand	Madagascar
19	21 Feb 2022 00:00	194	12 million	1.3 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 69.3
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 68.1
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14, 67.3
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.9, 65.9
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 64.8
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 63.7
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.7, 63.2
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.8, 62.4
9	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.5, 61.7
10	18 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15, 60.8
11	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.5, 59.8
12	19 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.9, 58.7
13	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.3, 57.9
14	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.7, 57.2
15	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17, 56.6
16	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.3, 55.9
17	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.3, 55.9
18	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-17.6, 54.6
19	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-17.6, 54.1
19	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.9 million people	-18.7, 52.6
19	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	220000 people	8.2 million people	-20, 50.8
19	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	194	1.3 million people	8.5 million people	-21.3, 49
19	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	7.9 million people	-22.4, 47.4	Madagascar
19	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	4.7 million people	-24.1, 45.2	Madagascar
19	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.8 million people	-25.9, 43.3
19	24 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-28, 41.7
19	25 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-29.9, 41
19	25 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-31.4, 41.1
19	26 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-32.7, 41.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Itenina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (114 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 21 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.5
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 04:00	Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min