Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NARELLE-26
in Australia, Papua New Guinea
19 Mar 2026 00 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NARELLE-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
    Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge n.a.
    Vulnerability Low (Australia)
    Landfall between
    21 Mar 2026 00:00 - 22 Mar 2026 00:00
    in Australia

    GDACS Score

    GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
    For more info on GDACS core click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 222 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      222 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 10000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Level N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 17 Mar 2026 00:00 176 70 thousand 5 thousand Papua New Guinea, Australia
        Green 2 17 Mar 2026 12:00 213 60 thousand 10 thousand Papua New Guinea, Australia
        Green 3 18 Mar 2026 00:00 213 70 thousand Few people Papua New Guinea, Australia
        Green 4 18 Mar 2026 12:00 213 240 thousand 3 thousand Papua New Guinea, Australia
        Green 5 19 Mar 2026 00:00 222 240 thousand 10 thousand Australia, Papua New Guinea

        Bulletin Timeline

          Level N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 17 Mar 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 6200 people -12.3, 156.6
          GREEN
          		 2 17 Mar 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 21000 people -12.4, 155.3
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Mar 2026 00:00 Category 1 120 no people 5200 people -12.4, 153.3
          GREEN
          		 4 18 Mar 2026 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -13, 150.6
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Mar 2026 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 1300 people -13.6, 147.8
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Mar 2026 12:00 Category 4 222 <1000 people 2400 people -13.7, 145.3
          GREEN
          		 5 20 Mar 2026 00:00 Category 2 176 1600 people 9800 people -13.6, 143.4 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 20 Mar 2026 12:00 Category 1 130 <1000 people 8500 people -13.6, 141.3
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Mar 2026 00:00 Category 1 139 3700 people 29000 people -13.6, 139
          GREEN
          		 5 22 Mar 2026 00:00 Category 1 139 5300 people 200000 people -13.8, 134.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 23 Mar 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 17000 people -14.3, 129.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 24 Mar 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.1, 124.5 Australia
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
          Australia 8900 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
          Queensland Australia 1600 people
          Northern Territory Australia 7300 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Coen CUQ 162 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900
          Rokeby RKY unknown 0
          Aurukun AUU 9 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Groote Eylandt GTE 16 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
          Mountain Valley MNV unknown 0
          Peppimenarti PEP unknown 0
          Port Keats PKT 28 Civ. Unpaved No 4600

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Milner Bay AUMIB Coral Sea Islands
          Groote Eylandt AUGTE Coral Sea Islands
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.