Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22
in Madagascar
18 Feb 2022 00 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 1.4 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
22 Feb 2022 12:00 - 23 Feb 2022 00:00
in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 176 km/h n.a. n.a. 1.5
Overall 185 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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Wind

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Tropical Storm or higher		 Population in
Cat 1. or higher		 Countries
Green 1 16 Feb 2022 12:00 56 No people No people
Green 2 16 Feb 2022 18:00 56 No people No people
Green 3 17 Feb 2022 00:00 65 No people No people
Green 4 17 Feb 2022 06:00 176 940 thousand No people Madagascar
Orange 5 17 Feb 2022 12:00 176 6.8 million 160 thousand Madagascar
Orange 6 17 Feb 2022 18:00 176 10.3 million 460 thousand Madagascar
Orange 7 18 Feb 2022 00:00 176 11 million 1.4 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS) 		Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher 		Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher 		Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 16 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14, 69.3
GREEN
 2 16 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14, 68.1
GREEN
 3 17 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -14, 67.3
GREEN
 4 17 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.9, 65.9
GREEN
 5 17 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.5, 64.8
GREEN
 6 17 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.5, 63.7
GREEN
 7 18 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -13.7, 63.2
GREEN
 7 18 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.6, 61.8
GREEN
 7 19 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -15.7, 60.1
GREEN
 7 19 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.7, 58.6
GREEN
 7 20 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.4, 57.3
GREEN
 7 20 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -17.9, 56
GREEN
 7 21 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -18.1, 54.7
GREEN
 7 21 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people 850000 people -18.3, 53.2
ORANGE
 7 22 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 200000 people 8 million people -18.7, 51.4
ORANGE
 7 22 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 1.4 million people 10.9 million people -19.2, 49.4
GREEN
 7 23 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -19.8, 47.7 Madagascar
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toamasina Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Andevoranto Madagascar
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 16 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)