Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
10 min - 1 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	340 thousand in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 06:00 - 22 Feb 2022 18:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (10-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	1.5
Overall	194 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	56	No people	No people
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	56	No people	No people
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	65	No people	No people
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	176	940 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	176	6.8 million	160 thousand	Madagascar
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	176	10.3 million	460 thousand	Madagascar
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	176	11 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	194	12.5 million	340 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 69.3
2	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14, 68.1
3	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14, 67.3
4	17 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.9, 65.9
5	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 64.8
6	17 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.5, 63.7
7	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.7, 63.2
8	18 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.8, 62.4
8	18 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 60.7
8	19 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.3, 59.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.1, 57.8
8	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-17.8, 56.5
8	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-18.2, 55.2
8	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-18.3, 53.9
8	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.6 million people	-18.6, 52.4
8	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	340000 people	11.9 million people	-19.2, 50.5
8	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	12.1 million people	-19.9, 48.6	Madagascar
8	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-20.9, 46.3	Madagascar

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 16 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min