Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for CHIDO-25 in Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte from 09 Dec 2024 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2024 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHIDO-25

in Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHIDO-25 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2024-000225-COM
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte
Exposed population	950 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	243 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (15 Dec 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)
Landfall	between 15 Dec 2024 00:00 - 15 Dec 2024 12:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	169 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	243 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

169 km/h Current Max.

Up to 630000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	09 Dec 2024 12:00	63	No people	No people
2	09 Dec 2024 18:00	63	No people	No people
3	10 Dec 2024 00:00	137	460 thousand	110 thousand	Madagascar
4	10 Dec 2024 06:00	148	1.6 million	370 thousand	Madagascar
5	10 Dec 2024 12:00	158	3.6 million	360 thousand	Madagascar
6	10 Dec 2024 18:00	158	2.9 million	390 thousand	Madagascar
7	11 Dec 2024 00:00	169	5.4 million	230 thousand	Madagascar
8	11 Dec 2024 06:00	137	6.3 million	1 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
9	11 Dec 2024 12:00	169	5 million	630 thousand	Madagascar, Mayotte, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	09 Dec 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-11.2, 63.2
2	09 Dec 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-11.2, 62.3
3	10 Dec 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-11, 61.5
4	10 Dec 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-10.8, 60.8
5	10 Dec 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-10.8, 60.2
6	10 Dec 2024 18:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-10.6, 59.6
7	11 Dec 2024 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	<1000 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-10.5, 59
8	11 Dec 2024 06:00	Category 2	169	<1000 people	<1000 people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-10.5, 58.3
9	11 Dec 2024 12:00	Category 3	179	<1000 people	<1000 people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-10.5, 57.5
9	12 Dec 2024 00:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-10.6, 55.5
9	12 Dec 2024 12:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-10.8, 53.7
9	13 Dec 2024 00:00	Category 3	190	no people	290000 people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-11.2, 51.7
9	13 Dec 2024 12:00	Category 2	169	120000 people	390000 people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-11.7, 49.7
9	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Category 2	158	36000 people	310000 people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-12.5, 47.6
9	14 Dec 2024 12:00	Category 1	148	40000 people	310000 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-13.3, 45.3
9	15 Dec 2024 00:00	Category 2	169	490000 people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-13.9, 42.8
9	15 Dec 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	4.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-14.4, 40.2	Mozambique
9	16 Dec 2024 00:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-14.9, 37.8	Mozambique
9	16 Dec 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.7, 35.6	Malawi

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Madagascar	59000 people
Mayotte	31000 people
Mozambique	480000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	59000 people
Mayotte	Mayotte	31000 people
Nampula	Mozambique	480000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Antseranana	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Antsiranana Andrakaka		61	Mil.	Paved	No	8200
Nacala	MNC	125	Mil.	Paved	No	8200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Agalaga Island		Mauritius
Saint James Anchorage		Mauritius
Antsiranana	MGDIE	Madagascar
Cape Amber		Madagascar
Cap Diego		Madagascar
Nacala	MZMNC	Mozambique
Memba	MZMEM	Mozambique

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Nacala Velha, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Dec 2024 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (56 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 11 Dec 2024 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.3
	13 Dec 2024 16:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.3
	13 Dec 2024 16:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Chepa	Mozambique	0.3
	13 Dec 2024 15:00	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.3
	13 Dec 2024 15:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Nangata	Mozambique	0.3
	13 Dec 2024 17:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Dec 2024 17:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Nacala	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Dec 2024 15:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Namelala	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Cani	Mayotte	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 11:00	Maaia	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 12:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Macalopa	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 10:00	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 10:00	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Dec 2024 18:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Dec 2024 15:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Dec 2024 15:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 11:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 11:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Sada	Mayotte	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Dapani	Mayotte	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Bandele	Mayotte	0.2
	15 Dec 2024 10:00	Formone	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	15 Dec 2024 10:00	Memba	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Dec 2024 10:00	Muanua	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2024 19:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 11:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 11:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2024 18:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2024 18:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 13:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 12:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Dec 2024 00:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Nampuita	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Dec 2024 09:00	Arire	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.