Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 810000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.6, -54.7
GREEN
18 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 650000 people no people 14.7, -57.4 Dominica
GREEN
18 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 840000 people no people 14.9, -60.4 Saint Lucia
GREEN
18 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.1, -63.7
GREEN
18 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.2, -69.7
GREEN
18 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15, -74.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 939 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 946 km
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 982 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 1009 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 1010 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 1023 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 1026 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 937 km
Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000 938 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 940 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 975 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 976 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 983 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 983 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 1009 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 1014 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 1031 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Le Marin Martinique 924 km
Le Robert Martinique 930 km
La Trinite Martinique 934 km
Vieux Fort Saint Lucia 939 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 941 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 943 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 944 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 958 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 981 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 982 km
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 983 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 993 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 1009 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 1026 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 931 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Cujizal, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (19 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 12 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cujizal Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Palencia Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Caduto Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Hyacinthe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 19:00 Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Lero Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Sainte Pierre Martinique  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Jagueicito Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Puerto Zazarida Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Ocorote Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Rio Seco Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Algodones Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cauca Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cuajaracume Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 12:00 Junain Colombia  0.1