Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Sep 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.8, -55.7
GREEN
19 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 1 million people no people 15, -58.6 Dominica
GREEN
19 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 970000 people no people 15.2, -61.5 Saint Lucia
GREEN
19 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.4, -64.8
GREEN
19 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.3, -70.6
GREEN
19 16 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.2, -75
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 809 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 817 km
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 853 km
Moule Guadeloupe City - 866 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 883 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 883 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 897 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 899 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 808 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 810 km
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0 832 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 847 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 849 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 854 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 854 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 858 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 881 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 883 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 887 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 905 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Le Marin Martinique 795 km
Le Robert Martinique 801 km
La Trinite Martinique 805 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 812 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 814 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 815 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 828 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 854 km
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 854 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 855 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 865 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 881 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 884 km
Port Louis Guadeloupe 887 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 899 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 801 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Cujizal, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (47 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 12 Sep 2018 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Cujizal Venezuela  0.2
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Palencia Venezuela  0.2
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Jagueicito Venezuela  0.2
14 Sep 2018 22:00 Caduto Venezuela  0.2
13 Sep 2018 17:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 Punto Miranda Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 El Aceituno Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 Altagracia Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 Las Playitas Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Ocorote Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Rio Seco Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Algodones Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Puerto Zazarida Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 Haticos del Sur Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 El Cucharal Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 23:00 Jaguecito Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 El Canito Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Punta de Leiva Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Punta Igauna Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Palmarejo Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Cuajaracume Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Cauca Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 El Guere Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Cabimas Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 El Mene Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Las Mucuras Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 19:00 Santa Rita Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 14:00 Junain Colombia  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Sainte Pierre Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Lero Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Codore Adentro Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Arajo Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 18:00 Pedregalito Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 18:00 La Pica Roja Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 18:00 Agua Clara Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 18:00 San Antonio Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Matacan Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 21:00 Cayude Venezuela  0.1