Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19 in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar from 20 Jan 2019 00:00 UTC to 21 Jan 2019 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19

in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar

21 Jan 2019 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (21 Jan 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 Jan 2019 00:00	102	7.5 million	No people	Mozambique, Malawi
2	20 Jan 2019 06:00	93	5.6 million	No people	Mozambique, Malawi
3	20 Jan 2019 12:00	93	10.3 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
4	20 Jan 2019 18:00	93	7.9 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
5	21 Jan 2019 00:00	65	5 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar
6	21 Jan 2019 06:00	65	5.3 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar
7	21 Jan 2019 12:00	65	4.5 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar
8	21 Jan 2019 18:00	65	4.4 million	No people	Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-23.7, 38.4
2	20 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	880000 people	-22.9, 38.8	Mozambique
3	20 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	3.6 million people	-22.2, 38.9	Mozambique
4	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	8700 people	-21.7, 39.1	Mozambique
5	21 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	690000 people	-20.9, 38.6	Mozambique
6	21 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.7 million people	-20.1, 38.1	Mozambique
7	21 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.7 million people	-19.3, 37.4	Mozambique
8	21 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.9 million people	-19, 36.4	Mozambique
8	22 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-18.1, 35.9	Mozambique
8	22 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-17.5, 36.2	Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Malawi
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Zambezia	Mozambique
Sofala	Mozambique
Tete	Mozambique
Southern	Malawi
Manica	Mozambique
Inhambane	Mozambique
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Quelimane	Zambezia	Mozambique	City	190000 people
Beira	Sofala	Mozambique	Major city	520000 people
Maxixe		Mozambique	City	120000 people
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Tulear	Toliara	Madagascar	Major city	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Chinde	INE	unknown				0
Luabo	LBM	unknown				0
Quelimane	UEL	11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Inhaminga	IMG	unknown				0
Beira	BEW	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Mutarara		48				0
Vila Franca Do Save		30				0
Vilanculos	VNX	14	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Inhambane	INH	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Toliara	TLE	8	Civ.	Paved	No	6500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Chinde	MZINE	Mozambique
Vila Do Chinde		Mozambique
Porto de Quelimane	MZUEL	Mozambique
Porto Belo	MZPBE	Mozambique
Beira	MZBEW	Mozambique
Nova Mambone		Mozambique
Bartolomeo Diaz		Mozambique
Bazaruto Island		Mozambique
Vilanculas		Mozambique
Inhambane	MZINH	Mozambique
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Antongo		Madagascar
Manombo	MGMOB	Madagascar
Toliara	MGTLE	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (112 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 21 Jan 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.9
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.9
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.7
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.6
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.6
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.6
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.6
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 21:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 20:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.5
	21 Jan 2019 21:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.4
	21 Jan 2019 22:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2019 12:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 18:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 12:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 20:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 06:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 05:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 05:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Jo	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2019 05:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 06:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 06:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 13:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 06:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Guiducua	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 01:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Afo	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 05:00	Induna	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 17:00	Siane	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 11:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 02:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 14:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Mabsil	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 18:00	Caulino	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 08:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 05:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 02:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 19:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 19:00	Laisse	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 02:00	Gafaria	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 02:00	Nangalete	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 05:00	Mahupe	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 07:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 20:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 03:00	Linchica	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 00:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 01:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2019 04:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 09:00	Bambe	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2019 13:00	Maguemba	Mozambique	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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