Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SARAI-19 in Fiji, Tonga, Niue from 26 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC to 31 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SARAI-19

in Fiji, Tonga, Niue

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SARAI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Fiji, Tonga, Niue
Exposed population	10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (27 Dec 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Fiji)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	130 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 910000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Dec 2019 06:00	120	1 million	90 thousand	Fiji
2	26 Dec 2019 12:00	120	1 million	10 thousand	Fiji
3	26 Dec 2019 18:00	120	1 million	2 thousand	Fiji
4	27 Dec 2019 00:00	120	1 million	6 thousand	Fiji
5	27 Dec 2019 06:00	120	950 thousand	Few people	Fiji, Tonga, Niue
6	27 Dec 2019 12:00	120	950 thousand	No people	Fiji, Tonga, Niue
7	27 Dec 2019 18:00	120	920 thousand	No people	Fiji, Tonga
8	28 Dec 2019 00:00	130	940 thousand	2 thousand	Fiji
9	28 Dec 2019 06:00	120	910 thousand	Few people	Fiji
10	28 Dec 2019 12:00	130	910 thousand	9 thousand	Fiji
11	28 Dec 2019 18:00	130	840 thousand	9 thousand	Fiji
12	29 Dec 2019 00:00	130	900 thousand	9 thousand	Fiji
13	29 Dec 2019 06:00	120	920 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
14	29 Dec 2019 12:00	120	920 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
15	29 Dec 2019 18:00	111	920 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
16	30 Dec 2019 00:00	102	920 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
17	30 Dec 2019 06:00	93	910 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
18	30 Dec 2019 12:00	83	900 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
19	30 Dec 2019 18:00	83	910 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
20	31 Dec 2019 00:00	74	920 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji
21	31 Dec 2019 06:00	56	910 thousand	10 thousand	Fiji

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	26 Dec 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	6900 people	-13.2, 176.2
2	26 Dec 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	370000 people	-14.4, 175.8	Fiji
3	26 Dec 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	790000 people	-15.7, 175.5	Fiji
4	27 Dec 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	740000 people	-16.6, 175.4	Fiji
5	27 Dec 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	750000 people	-18, 175.5	Fiji
6	27 Dec 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	750000 people	-18.7, 176.1	Fiji
7	27 Dec 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	760000 people	-19.2, 176.8	Fiji
8	28 Dec 2019 00:00	Category 1	120	1700 people	770000 people	-19.6, 177.5	Fiji
9	28 Dec 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	750000 people	-20.2, 177.7	Fiji
10	28 Dec 2019 12:00	Category 1	130	8800 people	760000 people	-19.8, 178.3	Fiji
11	28 Dec 2019 18:00	Category 1	130	7900 people	760000 people	-19.9, 178.3	Fiji
12	29 Dec 2019 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	770000 people	-19.9, 178.9	Fiji
13	29 Dec 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	<1000 people	350000 people	-20.5, 179.8	Fiji
14	29 Dec 2019 12:00	Category 1	120	<1000 people	340000 people	-20.4, -179.6	Fiji
15	29 Dec 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	100000 people	-20.5, -178.8	Tonga
16	30 Dec 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	94000 people	-20.7, -178.6	Fiji
17	30 Dec 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	95000 people	-21.1, -177.4	Tonga
18	30 Dec 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	92000 people	-21.2, -176.7	Tonga
19	30 Dec 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	93000 people	-21.1, -175.9	Tonga
20	31 Dec 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	110000 people	-20.7, -175.3	Tonga
21	31 Dec 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-20.3, -174.3
21	31 Dec 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-19.8, -172.3
21	01 Jan 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-19.2, -169.9	Niue

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.