Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for HEROLD-20 in Mauritius, Madagascar from 13 Mar 2020 06:00 UTC to 19 Mar 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for HEROLD-20

in Mauritius, Madagascar

19 Mar 2020 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HEROLD-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mauritius, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (13 Mar 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 630000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Mar 2020 06:00	148	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	13 Mar 2020 18:00	194	1.3 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
3	14 Mar 2020 06:00	185	1.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
4	14 Mar 2020 18:00	185	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
5	15 Mar 2020 06:00	176	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
6	15 Mar 2020 18:00	185	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
7	16 Mar 2020 06:00	167	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius
8	16 Mar 2020 18:00	148	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
9	17 Mar 2020 06:00	185	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
10	17 Mar 2020 18:00	130	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
11	18 Mar 2020 06:00	102	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
12	18 Mar 2020 18:00	83	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
13	19 Mar 2020 06:00	74	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
14	19 Mar 2020 18:00	56	630 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Mar 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.3, 52.4
2	13 Mar 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3500 people	-14.7, 52	Madagascar
3	14 Mar 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	580000 people	-15.1, 50.9	Madagascar
4	14 Mar 2020 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	400000 people	-15, 51.1	Madagascar
5	15 Mar 2020 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-15.1, 51.8
6	15 Mar 2020 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.3, 52.7
7	16 Mar 2020 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.7, 54.2
8	16 Mar 2020 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.8, 56.8
9	17 Mar 2020 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	45000 people	-19.1, 60.4	Mauritius
10	17 Mar 2020 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	45000 people	-21, 63.5	Mauritius
11	18 Mar 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-22.7, 66.1
12	18 Mar 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-24.7, 69.2
13	19 Mar 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-25.4, 71.1
14	19 Mar 2020 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-26.6, 73
14	20 Mar 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-28.3, 74.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.