Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 03 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

03 Feb 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)
Landfall	between 02 Feb 2021 12:00 - 02 Feb 2021 18:00 in New Caledonia

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 370000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	130	400 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	111	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	120	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
7	01 Feb 2021 12:00	120	440 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
8	01 Feb 2021 18:00	111	450 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
9	02 Feb 2021 00:00	83	390 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
10	02 Feb 2021 06:00	83	380 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu
11	02 Feb 2021 12:00	93	380 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu
12	02 Feb 2021 18:00	74	380 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu
13	03 Feb 2021 00:00	74	370 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2600 people	-13.1, 155.2
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 157.2
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.1, 158.5
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.8, 160.9
7	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	110000 people	-15.7, 162.6
8	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	190000 people	-16.6, 164
9	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	120000 people	-17.1, 165
10	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	360000 people	-18.4, 166.1
11	02 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	310000 people	-19.6, 166.8
12	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	280000 people	-20.6, 167.3	New Caledonia
13	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	230000 people	-21.9, 167.1
13	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-23, 166.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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