Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21 in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu from 01 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC to 07 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21

in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000069-NCL
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
Exposed population	240 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (01 Mar 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 510000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	130	220 thousand	No people	Australia
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	130	240 thousand	No people	Australia
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	130	230 thousand	No people	Australia
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	130	480 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	130	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Norfolk Island
8	02 Mar 2021 18:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
9	03 Mar 2021 00:00	167	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
10	03 Mar 2021 06:00	167	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
11	03 Mar 2021 12:00	194	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
12	03 Mar 2021 18:00	213	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	222	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
14	04 Mar 2021 06:00	222	510 thousand	Few people	Australia, New Caledonia
15	04 Mar 2021 12:00	194	510 thousand	110 thousand	New Caledonia
16	04 Mar 2021 18:00	185	510 thousand	180 thousand	New Caledonia
17	05 Mar 2021 00:00	204	510 thousand	210 thousand	New Caledonia
18	05 Mar 2021 06:00	222	510 thousand	170 thousand	New Caledonia
19	05 Mar 2021 12:00	250	510 thousand	230 thousand	New Caledonia
20	05 Mar 2021 18:00	241	540 thousand	230 thousand	New Caledonia
21	06 Mar 2021 00:00	204	510 thousand	240 thousand	New Caledonia
22	06 Mar 2021 06:00	185	510 thousand	240 thousand	New Caledonia
23	06 Mar 2021 12:00	167	510 thousand	240 thousand	New Caledonia
24	06 Mar 2021 18:00	120	510 thousand	240 thousand	New Caledonia
25	07 Mar 2021 00:00	93	510 thousand	240 thousand	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	190000 people	-17.2, 147.2
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	230000 people	-16.7, 146.8
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	6100 people	-16.1, 146.9
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-15.3, 147.4
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-15.1, 147.7
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.8, 148
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.8, 148.2
8	02 Mar 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.9, 148.6
9	03 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.7, 148.3
10	03 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	2100 people	-14.8, 147.9
11	03 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	32000 people	-14.8, 148.3
12	03 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.3, 148.2
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	78000 people	-15.2, 148.7
14	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.5, 149.5
15	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.4, 150.4
16	04 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.9, 152.5
17	05 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-16.7, 154.6
18	05 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	40000 people	-17.8, 156.8
19	05 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	270000 people	-18.8, 159.1
20	05 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 4	241	230000 people	290000 people	-19.9, 161.4
21	06 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 3	204	240000 people	280000 people	-21.2, 163.7
22	06 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 3	185	170000 people	270000 people	-22.7, 166.6
23	06 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	170000 people	-24.3, 169.5
24	06 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-26.7, 173.5
25	07 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-27.3, 175.7
25	07 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-29.5, -177.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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