Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21 in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe from 30 Jun 2021 21:00 UTC to 09 Jul 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21

in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

09 Jul 2021 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000072-HTI
Exposed countries	Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
Exposed population	90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.1 m (09 Jul 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)
Landfall	between 09 Jul 2021 21:00 - 10 Jul 2021 06:00 in Canada

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	2.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 106.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 21:00	93	23.5 million	No people	Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
2	01 Jul 2021 03:00	93	29.8 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
3	01 Jul 2021 09:00	93	24.9 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
4	01 Jul 2021 15:00	93	28.5 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
5	01 Jul 2021 21:00	93	28.5 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
6	02 Jul 2021 03:00	102	40 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
7	02 Jul 2021 09:00	111	46.7 million	No people	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Grenada, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica
8	02 Jul 2021 12:30	120	46.7 million	980 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti
9	02 Jul 2021 15:00	130	46.1 million	880 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti, Cuba
10	02 Jul 2021 21:00	139	44 million	1.7 million	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti, Cuba
11	03 Jul 2021 03:00	139	44.8 million	800 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti, Cuba
12	03 Jul 2021 09:00	120	42.6 million	1.8 million	Haiti, Cuba, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
13	03 Jul 2021 15:00	111	42.3 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
14	03 Jul 2021 21:00	111	46.2 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
15	04 Jul 2021 03:00	111	44.6 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
16	04 Jul 2021 09:00	111	40.5 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
17	04 Jul 2021 15:00	111	33.6 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
18	04 Jul 2021 21:00	102	27.5 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
19	05 Jul 2021 03:00	111	35.5 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
20	05 Jul 2021 09:00	102	34.9 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
21	05 Jul 2021 15:00	102	24.4 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
22	05 Jul 2021 21:00	102	25.4 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
23	06 Jul 2021 03:00	102	27.9 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
24	06 Jul 2021 09:00	111	70.7 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
25	06 Jul 2021 15:00	111	82.1 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
26	06 Jul 2021 18:00	120	82 million	1.7 million	United States, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
27	06 Jul 2021 21:00	120	No people	1.2 million	United States, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
28	07 Jul 2021 03:00	120	95.6 million	180 thousand	United States, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
29	07 Jul 2021 09:00	102	99.1 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
30	07 Jul 2021 15:00	102	82.7 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
31	07 Jul 2021 21:00	74	105.1 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
32	08 Jul 2021 03:00	74	105.3 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
33	08 Jul 2021 09:00	83	106 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
34	08 Jul 2021 15:00	83	105.1 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
35	08 Jul 2021 21:00	83	106.5 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
36	09 Jul 2021 03:00	83	106.3 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
37	09 Jul 2021 09:00	83	106.2 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
38	09 Jul 2021 15:00	83	106.3 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
39	09 Jul 2021 21:00	83	106.2 million	90 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.6, -43.7
2	01 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.6, -46.3
3	01 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.4, -48.8
4	01 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.1, -51.4
5	01 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	11.2, -53.8
6	02 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	11.8, -55.9
7	02 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.2 million people	12.7, -58.6
8	02 Jul 2021 12:30	Category 1	120	94000 people	1.2 million people	13.1, -60.1
9	02 Jul 2021 15:00	Category 1	120	94000 people	1.1 million people	13.4, -61.2	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
10	02 Jul 2021 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, -63.7
11	03 Jul 2021 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	1200 people	14.8, -66.3
12	03 Jul 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	12 million people	16.2, -69
13	03 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	9.1 million people	17, -71.6
14	03 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	8.5 million people	17.5, -73.9
15	04 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	6.5 million people	17.9, -75.3
16	04 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	6.1 million people	18.1, -75.5
17	04 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5.3 million people	18.7, -76.8
18	04 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.7 million people	19.8, -77.9	Cuba
19	05 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.1 million people	20.6, -79.2
20	05 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.9 million people	21, -79.9
21	05 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.9 million people	21.5, -81.2
22	05 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3.6 million people	22.7, -81.9	Cuba
23	06 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	3.1 million people	23.5, -82.3
24	06 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.9 million people	24.1, -82.4
25	06 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.8 million people	24.9, -82.8
26	06 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.2 million people	25.4, -83
27	06 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	111	1300 people	5.5 million people	25.8, -83
28	07 Jul 2021 03:00	Category 1	120	93000 people	5.4 million people	27.3, -83.2
29	07 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	28.5, -83.5
30	07 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	4 million people	29.9, -83.6	United States
31	07 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	5.1 million people	30.8, -83.4	United States
32	08 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	10.2 million people	32.1, -82.3	United States
33	08 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	16.2 million people	33.4, -81.3	United States
34	08 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	25.2 million people	35, -79.7	United States
35	08 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	51.5 million people	36.3, -78.3	United States
36	09 Jul 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	59.5 million people	37.6, -76.5	United States
37	09 Jul 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	54.1 million people	39.4, -74.3	United States
38	09 Jul 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	39.9 million people	41, -72.1	United States
39	09 Jul 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	11.3 million people	43, -69.5
39	10 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.3 million people	46.2, -64.7	Canada
39	10 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	170000 people	50.3, -56.1	Canada
39	11 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	54.7, -46

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.