Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Oman
Exposed population	280 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)
Landfall	between 03 Oct 2021 12:00 - 03 Oct 2021 18:00 in Oman

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	1.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	130 km/h	1.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 125.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	102	18.8 million	No people	India
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	83	20 million	No people	India
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	83	8.3 million	No people	India
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	83	4.8 million	No people	India
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	83	17.5 million	No people	India
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	93	13 million	No people	India
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	65	12.5 million	No people	India
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	74	8.3 million	No people	India
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	74	19.4 million	No people	India
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	74	27.4 million	No people	India
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	56	13 million	No people	India
12	30 Sep 2021 18:00	111	126.1 million	No people	Pakistan, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia
13	01 Oct 2021 00:00	120	127.1 million	No people	Pakistan, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
14	01 Oct 2021 06:00	120	126.4 million	No people	Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, India, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
15	01 Oct 2021 12:00	120	127.4 million	No people	Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
16	01 Oct 2021 18:00	120	127.5 million	No people	Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
17	02 Oct 2021 00:00	120	127.7 million	No people	Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
18	02 Oct 2021 06:00	130	126.7 million	150 thousand	Oman
19	02 Oct 2021 12:00	157	126.3 million	280 thousand	Oman, United Arab Emirates
20	02 Oct 2021 18:00	148	126.6 million	190 thousand	Oman
21	03 Oct 2021 00:00	139	127.2 million	200 thousand	Oman, United Arab Emirates
22	03 Oct 2021 06:00	139	126.4 million	470 thousand	Oman
23	03 Oct 2021 12:00	120	126.2 million	390 thousand	Oman
24	03 Oct 2021 18:00	102	125.8 million	280 thousand	Oman

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.8, 92.1
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.6, 90.8
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.2, 90.2
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.2, 89.2
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.2, 89.1
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.3, 88.4
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.2, 88.3
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1600 people	18.3, 87.4
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	13.5 million people	18.5, 86
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	18.7 million people	18.5, 84.5	India
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.3, 83.5	India
12	30 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	22.7, 65.5
13	01 Oct 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	22.8, 64.7
14	01 Oct 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	67000 people	23, 64.3
15	01 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	170000 people	23.3, 63.6
16	01 Oct 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	470000 people	23.7, 63.2
17	02 Oct 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	580000 people	23.9, 62.5
18	02 Oct 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	500000 people	24.1, 61.6
19	02 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	450000 people	24.5, 60.7
20	02 Oct 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.6 million people	24.3, 60.1
21	03 Oct 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.8 million people	24.3, 59.4
22	03 Oct 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	330000 people	2.3 million people	24.1, 58.6
23	03 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	390000 people	2.1 million people	24, 58.1
24	03 Oct 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	540000 people	23.8, 57.4	Oman
24	04 Oct 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	23, 56.3	Oman
24	04 Oct 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22, 55.2	Saudi Arabia

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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