Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22 in Guatemala, Belize from 30 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22

in Guatemala, Belize

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000357-BLZ
Exposed countries	Guatemala, Belize
Exposed population	110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (03 Nov 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Guatemala)
Landfall	between 02 Nov 2022 15:00 - 02 Nov 2022 21:00 in Belize

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 650000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 21:00	130	2.2 million	No people	Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala
2	31 Oct 2022 03:00	130	2.4 million	No people	Jamaica, Honduras, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala
3	31 Oct 2022 09:00	130	3.5 million	No people	Jamaica, Honduras, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala
4	31 Oct 2022 15:00	120	1.6 million	No people	Honduras, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
5	31 Oct 2022 21:00	120	2.6 million	60 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
6	01 Nov 2022 03:00	120	3.8 million	130 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
7	01 Nov 2022 09:00	130	3.7 million	20 thousand	Belize
8	01 Nov 2022 15:00	148	2.8 million	80 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
9	01 Nov 2022 21:00	148	1.2 million	50 thousand	Belize
10	02 Nov 2022 03:00	139	3.9 million	150 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
11	02 Nov 2022 09:00	139	3.4 million	150 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
12	02 Nov 2022 15:00	130	2.8 million	100 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
13	02 Nov 2022 21:00	139	900 thousand	110 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
14	03 Nov 2022 03:00	93	810 thousand	110 thousand	Belize, Guatemala
15	03 Nov 2022 09:00	74	730 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
16	03 Nov 2022 15:00	56	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
17	03 Nov 2022 21:00	46	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
18	04 Nov 2022 03:00	56	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
19	04 Nov 2022 09:00	56	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
20	04 Nov 2022 15:00	65	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
21	04 Nov 2022 21:00	46	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
22	05 Nov 2022 03:00	46	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
23	05 Nov 2022 09:00	46	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize
24	05 Nov 2022 15:00	37	650 thousand	110 thousand	Guatemala, Belize

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.7, -73.6
2	31 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, -74.9
3	31 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	15.8, -76.1
4	31 Oct 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	15.5, -77.3
5	31 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -78.4
6	01 Nov 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -79.1
7	01 Nov 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	3400 people	16, -80.5
8	01 Nov 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	7000 people	16.3, -81.8
9	01 Nov 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	27000 people	16.7, -83.3
10	02 Nov 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	120000 people	16.8, -84.7
11	02 Nov 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	300000 people	17.1, -86
12	02 Nov 2022 15:00	Category 1	130	50000 people	390000 people	17.2, -87.4
13	02 Nov 2022 21:00	Category 1	139	110000 people	410000 people	17.4, -88.2	Belize
14	03 Nov 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	650000 people	17.6, -89.1	Belize, Guatemala
15	03 Nov 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	170000 people	17.8, -90.1	Guatemala, Mexico
16	03 Nov 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18, -91	Mexico, Guatemala
17	03 Nov 2022 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18.1, -92.2	Mexico
18	04 Nov 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18.1, -93.1	Mexico
19	04 Nov 2022 09:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18.7, -94
20	04 Nov 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.1, -94.6
21	04 Nov 2022 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	19.3, -95.3
22	05 Nov 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	19.5, -95.5
23	05 Nov 2022 09:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	19.8, -95.5
24	05 Nov 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	21.2, -95.2

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
130000 people
100000 people
320000 people
40000 people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
23000 people
55000 people
100000 people
51000 people
43000 people
46000 people
86000 people
100000 people
16000 people
29000 people
24000 people
2900 people
12000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.