Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-23 in Vanuatu from 01 Mar 2023 18:00 UTC to 05 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-23

in Vanuatu

05 Mar 2023 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KEVIN-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000030-VUT
Exposed countries	Vanuatu
Exposed population	120 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (03 Mar 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Vanuatu)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 260000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Mar 2023 18:00	148	290 thousand	30 thousand	Vanuatu
2	02 Mar 2023 00:00	167	270 thousand	30 thousand	Vanuatu
3	02 Mar 2023 06:00	167	270 thousand	30 thousand	Vanuatu
4	02 Mar 2023 12:00	157	270 thousand	30 thousand	Vanuatu
5	02 Mar 2023 18:00	167	270 thousand	30 thousand	Vanuatu
6	03 Mar 2023 00:00	176	270 thousand	110 thousand	Vanuatu
7	03 Mar 2023 06:00	176	270 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
8	03 Mar 2023 12:00	167	270 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
9	03 Mar 2023 18:00	194	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
10	04 Mar 2023 00:00	241	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
11	04 Mar 2023 06:00	250	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
12	04 Mar 2023 12:00	222	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
13	04 Mar 2023 18:00	194	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
14	05 Mar 2023 00:00	167	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
15	05 Mar 2023 06:00	139	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu
16	05 Mar 2023 12:00	111	260 thousand	120 thousand	Vanuatu

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	01 Mar 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	16000 people	-13.8, 161.9
2	02 Mar 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	92000 people	-14.4, 162.8
3	02 Mar 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	230000 people	-15.2, 164
4	02 Mar 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	260000 people	-16.1, 165.1
5	02 Mar 2023 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	270000 people	-16.4, 165.7
6	03 Mar 2023 00:00	Category 1	148	79000 people	270000 people	-16.9, 166.6
7	03 Mar 2023 06:00	Category 2	157	120000 people	260000 people	-17.8, 167.5
8	03 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	40000 people	170000 people	-18.5, 168.6
9	03 Mar 2023 18:00	Category 3	194	32000 people	120000 people	-19.6, 169.9
10	04 Mar 2023 00:00	Category 4	241	<1000 people	33000 people	-21, 171.5
11	04 Mar 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	<1000 people	-22.3, 173.3
12	04 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-23.5, 175.4
13	04 Mar 2023 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-24.5, 177.3
14	05 Mar 2023 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-25.6, 179.6
15	05 Mar 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-26.9, -176.6
16	05 Mar 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-27.2, -174.5
16	06 Mar 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-29.3, -168.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
190000 people
6700 people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
190000 people
6700 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.