Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MOCHA-23 in Myanmar from 11 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 14 May 2023 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MOCHA-23

in Myanmar

14 May 2023 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MOCHA-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000071-BGD
Exposed countries	Myanmar
Exposed population	3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	High (Myanmar)
Landfall	between 14 May 2023 06:00 - 14 May 2023 12:00 in Myanmar

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	2.2 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	2.2 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	11 May 2023 00:00	167	26.7 million	2 million	Myanmar
2	11 May 2023 06:00	176	39.9 million	3 million	Myanmar
3	11 May 2023 12:00	176	36.8 million	4.1 million	Myanmar
4	11 May 2023 18:00	204	45.7 million	3.6 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh, India
5	12 May 2023 00:00	222	33.2 million	2.7 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh, India
6	12 May 2023 06:00	204	38.3 million	2.6 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh, India
7	12 May 2023 12:00	194	38.1 million	2.9 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
8	12 May 2023 18:00	185	33 million	1.4 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh, India
9	13 May 2023 00:00	222	24.1 million	1.1 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
10	13 May 2023 06:00	231	44 million	2.3 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
11	13 May 2023 12:00	241	45.3 million	2.5 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
12	13 May 2023 18:00	241	44.4 million	2.8 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
13	14 May 2023 00:00	259	49.2 million	3.1 million	Myanmar, Bangladesh
14	14 May 2023 06:00	250	36.6 million	2 million	Myanmar
15	14 May 2023 12:00	194	37.6 million	3 million	Myanmar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	11 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	11.1, 88.2
2	11 May 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.4, 88.1
3	11 May 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12, 88.1
4	11 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	12.8, 88.1
5	12 May 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	13.4, 88.2
6	12 May 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14, 88.3
7	12 May 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.6, 88.7
8	12 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15, 88.7
9	13 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15.3, 89.1
10	13 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	1.2 million people	16, 90
11	13 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	5.3 million people	16.9, 90.8
12	13 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	241	500000 people	21.2 million people	17.8, 91.1
13	14 May 2023 00:00	Category 5	259	1.5 million people	38.9 million people	18.7, 91.8
14	14 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	1.6 million people	33.5 million people	19.8, 92.5
15	14 May 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	1.8 million people	34.1 million people	20.8, 93.1	Myanmar
15	15 May 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	980000 people	9.8 million people	23.1, 94.7	Myanmar
15	15 May 2023 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	25.3, 96.8	Myanmar

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Category 1 or higher strength
2.7 million people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Category 1 or higher strength
950000 people
220000 people
200000 people
1 million people
330000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.