Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for GEZANI-26 in Madagascar, Mozambique from 06 Feb 2026 00:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2026 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for GEZANI-26

in Madagascar, Mozambique

18 Feb 2026 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GEZANI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2026-000015-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	211 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (10 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Feb 2026 12:00 - 10 Feb 2026 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	106 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	211 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	06 Feb 2026 00:00	201	4.1 million	210 thousand	Madagascar
2	06 Feb 2026 06:00	137	10.4 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
3	06 Feb 2026 12:00	148	4.3 million	1.2 million	Madagascar
4	07 Feb 2026 00:00	127	3.5 million	280 thousand	Madagascar
5	07 Feb 2026 18:00	137	3.5 million	850 thousand	Madagascar
6	08 Feb 2026 00:00	158	3.5 million	730 thousand	Madagascar
7	08 Feb 2026 06:00	127	13 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
8	08 Feb 2026 12:00	179	5.4 million	1.2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
9	08 Feb 2026 18:00	179	5.4 million	1.6 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
10	09 Feb 2026 00:00	211	7.8 million	2.2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
11	09 Feb 2026 06:00	211	3.9 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
12	09 Feb 2026 12:00	222	12 million	930 thousand	Madagascar, Mozambique
13	09 Feb 2026 18:00	190	12.1 million	2.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
14	10 Feb 2026 00:00	232	12.7 million	2.2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
15	10 Feb 2026 06:00	201	11.1 million	2.2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
16	10 Feb 2026 12:00	211	7.7 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
17	10 Feb 2026 18:00	201	12 million	1.8 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
18	11 Feb 2026 00:00	169	5.4 million	1.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
19	11 Feb 2026 06:00	169	5.2 million	1.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
20	11 Feb 2026 18:00	169	4.7 million	2.1 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
21	12 Feb 2026 00:00	190	4.6 million	1.8 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
22	12 Feb 2026 06:00	190	4.6 million	2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
23	12 Feb 2026 12:00	190	4.6 million	1.9 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
24	12 Feb 2026 18:00	201	4.6 million	1.7 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
25	13 Feb 2026 00:00	190	4.6 million	1.8 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
26	13 Feb 2026 06:00	190	4.4 million	1.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
27	13 Feb 2026 12:00	190	4.5 million	1.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
28	13 Feb 2026 18:00	179	4.3 million	1.2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
29	14 Feb 2026 00:00	179	4.3 million	1.3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
30	14 Feb 2026 06:00	179	4.4 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
31	14 Feb 2026 12:00	169	4.4 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
32	14 Feb 2026 18:00	158	4.9 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
33	15 Feb 2026 00:00	148	5.2 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
34	15 Feb 2026 06:00	137	4.5 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
35	15 Feb 2026 12:00	137	5.7 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
36	15 Feb 2026 18:00	137	4.7 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
37	16 Feb 2026 00:00	137	4.9 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
38	16 Feb 2026 06:00	116	6.6 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
39	16 Feb 2026 12:00	116	4.9 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
40	16 Feb 2026 18:00	137	4.9 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
41	17 Feb 2026 00:00	127	6.1 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
42	17 Feb 2026 06:00	116	6.1 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
43	17 Feb 2026 12:00	116	6.2 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
44	17 Feb 2026 18:00	116	5.8 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
45	18 Feb 2026 00:00	106	5.8 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
46	18 Feb 2026 06:00	106	5.8 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
47	18 Feb 2026 12:00	106	5.8 million	1.5 million	Madagascar, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-15.2, 60.4
2	06 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-15.9, 60
3	06 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-16.7, 59.6
4	07 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-17.9, 58.8
5	07 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.4, 58.2
5	07 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-18.2, 57
6	08 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-18.1, 57.2
7	08 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18, 56.8
8	08 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.2, 56.6
9	08 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-17.9, 56
10	09 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-17.8, 55.6
11	09 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-17.9, 54.7
12	09 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-18, 53.8
13	09 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 1	127	no people	210000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-18, 52.9
14	10 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 2	158	no people	830000 people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-18.1, 52
15	10 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 3	179	870000 people	1.8 million people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-18, 51
16	10 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 4	211	1000000 people	2.9 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	185	-18.1, 50.1
17	10 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 3	201	1.5 million people	10.2 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-18.1, 49.2	Madagascar
18	11 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.8 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-18, 47.9	Madagascar
19	11 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	730000 people	Overland Depression	56	-18.1, 46.1	Madagascar
20	11 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	85000 people	Overland Depression	46	-18.8, 44.5	Madagascar
20	11 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19, 43.3
21	12 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-19.6, 42
22	12 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-19.9, 40.9
23	12 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-20.3, 40
24	12 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-20.7, 39
25	13 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 2	169	no people	51000 people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-21.4, 37.9
26	13 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 2	169	no people	640000 people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-21.8, 37
27	13 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 2	169	110000 people	1.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-22.5, 36.4
28	13 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 2	169	no people	1 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-23.2, 36.1
29	14 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 3	190	35000 people	920000 people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-24, 35.7
30	14 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 3	179	no people	280000 people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-24.9, 36
31	14 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-25.9, 36.5
32	14 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-26.4, 37.5
33	15 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-26.7, 38.2
34	15 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-26.6, 39.2
35	15 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-26.5, 40.2
36	15 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-26, 40.9
37	16 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 1	127	no people	130000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-25.4, 41.4
38	16 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	2.2 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-25, 41.9
39	16 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	510000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-24.9, 42.5
40	16 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 1	137	no people	520000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-25.3, 43.8
41	17 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-27.1, 44.4
42	17 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-28.9, 43.7
43	17 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-30.3, 42.5
44	17 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-31.5, 42
45	18 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-33.1, 41.6
46	18 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-34.4, 41.4
47	18 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-35.6, 41.6
47	19 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-38.2, 42.9
47	19 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-41.1, 46.3
47	20 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-44.6, 52.7
47	20 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-47.7, 61.2
47	21 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-50.5, 70.8

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
4.5 million people
1.2 million people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
1.4 million people
1.2 million people
550000 people
2.3 million people
220000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.