Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for GEZANI-26
in Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GEZANI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2026-000015-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population 1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 211 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
10 Feb 2026 12:00 - 10 Feb 2026 18:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 106 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 211 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Level Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 06 Feb 2026 00:00 201 4.1 million 210 thousand Madagascar
Orange 2 06 Feb 2026 06:00 137 10.4 million 1.6 million Madagascar
Orange 3 06 Feb 2026 12:00 148 4.3 million 1.2 million Madagascar
Orange 4 07 Feb 2026 00:00 127 3.5 million 280 thousand Madagascar
Orange 5 07 Feb 2026 18:00 137 3.5 million 850 thousand Madagascar
Orange 6 08 Feb 2026 00:00 158 3.5 million 730 thousand Madagascar
Red 7 08 Feb 2026 06:00 127 13 million 1.3 million Madagascar
Red 8 08 Feb 2026 12:00 179 5.4 million 1.2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 9 08 Feb 2026 18:00 179 5.4 million 1.6 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 10 09 Feb 2026 00:00 211 7.8 million 2.2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 11 09 Feb 2026 06:00 211 3.9 million 1.1 million Madagascar
Red 12 09 Feb 2026 12:00 222 12 million 930 thousand Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 13 09 Feb 2026 18:00 190 12.1 million 2.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 14 10 Feb 2026 00:00 232 12.7 million 2.2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 15 10 Feb 2026 06:00 201 11.1 million 2.2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 16 10 Feb 2026 12:00 211 7.7 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 17 10 Feb 2026 18:00 201 12 million 1.8 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Orange 18 11 Feb 2026 00:00 169 5.4 million 1.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 19 11 Feb 2026 06:00 169 5.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Orange 20 11 Feb 2026 18:00 169 4.7 million 2.1 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 21 12 Feb 2026 00:00 190 4.6 million 1.8 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 22 12 Feb 2026 06:00 190 4.6 million 2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 23 12 Feb 2026 12:00 190 4.6 million 1.9 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 24 12 Feb 2026 18:00 201 4.6 million 1.7 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 25 13 Feb 2026 00:00 190 4.6 million 1.8 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Orange 26 13 Feb 2026 06:00 190 4.4 million 1.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Red 27 13 Feb 2026 12:00 190 4.5 million 1.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 28 13 Feb 2026 18:00 179 4.3 million 1.2 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Orange 29 14 Feb 2026 00:00 179 4.3 million 1.3 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 30 14 Feb 2026 06:00 179 4.4 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 31 14 Feb 2026 12:00 169 4.4 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 32 14 Feb 2026 18:00 158 4.9 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 33 15 Feb 2026 00:00 148 5.2 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 34 15 Feb 2026 06:00 137 4.5 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 35 15 Feb 2026 12:00 137 5.7 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 36 15 Feb 2026 18:00 137 4.7 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 37 16 Feb 2026 00:00 137 4.9 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 38 16 Feb 2026 06:00 116 6.6 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 39 16 Feb 2026 12:00 116 4.9 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 40 16 Feb 2026 18:00 137 4.9 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 41 17 Feb 2026 00:00 127 6.1 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 42 17 Feb 2026 06:00 116 6.1 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 43 17 Feb 2026 12:00 116 6.2 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 44 17 Feb 2026 18:00 116 5.8 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 45 18 Feb 2026 00:00 106 5.8 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 46 18 Feb 2026 06:00 106 5.8 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 47 18 Feb 2026 12:00 106 5.8 million 1.5 million Madagascar, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Level Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Category
(WMO/RSMC) **
Max winds
(km/h)
(WMO/RSMC)
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 06 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -15.2, 60.4
GREEN
2 06 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -15.9, 60
GREEN
3 06 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -16.7, 59.6
GREEN
4 07 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -17.9, 58.8
GREEN
5 07 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -18.4, 58.2
GREEN
5 07 Feb 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -18.2, 57
GREEN
6 08 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -18.1, 57.2
GREEN
7 08 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -18, 56.8
GREEN
8 08 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -18.2, 56.6
GREEN
9 08 Feb 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -17.9, 56
GREEN
10 09 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -17.8, 55.6
GREEN
11 09 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -17.9, 54.7
GREEN
12 09 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -18, 53.8
GREEN
13 09 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 1 127 no people 210000 people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -18, 52.9
GREEN
14 10 Feb 2026 00:00 Category 2 158 no people 830000 people Tropical Cyclone 139 -18.1, 52
RED
15 10 Feb 2026 06:00 Category 3 179 870000 people 1.8 million people Tropical Cyclone 157 -18, 51
RED
16 10 Feb 2026 12:00 Category 4 211 1000000 people 2.9 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -18.1, 50.1
RED
17 10 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 3 201 1.5 million people 10.2 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -18.1, 49.2 Madagascar
GREEN
18 11 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 106 no people 1.8 million people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -18, 47.9 Madagascar
GREEN
19 11 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 730000 people Overland Depression 56 -18.1, 46.1 Madagascar
GREEN
20 11 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical depression 53 no people 85000 people Overland Depression 46 -18.8, 44.5 Madagascar
GREEN
20 11 Feb 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -19, 43.3
GREEN
21 12 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -19.6, 42
GREEN
22 12 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 116 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -19.9, 40.9
GREEN
23 12 Feb 2026 12:00 Category 1 137 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 120 -20.3, 40
GREEN
24 12 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 2 169 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 148 -20.7, 39
GREEN
25 13 Feb 2026 00:00 Category 2 169 no people 51000 people Tropical Cyclone 148 -21.4, 37.9
GREEN
26 13 Feb 2026 06:00 Category 2 169 no people 640000 people Tropical Cyclone 148 -21.8, 37
ORANGE
27 13 Feb 2026 12:00 Category 2 169 110000 people 1.2 million people Tropical Cyclone 148 -22.5, 36.4
GREEN
28 13 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 2 169 no people 1 million people Tropical Cyclone 148 -23.2, 36.1
ORANGE
29 14 Feb 2026 00:00 Category 3 190 35000 people 920000 people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -24, 35.7
GREEN
30 14 Feb 2026 06:00 Category 3 179 no people 280000 people Tropical Cyclone 157 -24.9, 36
GREEN
31 14 Feb 2026 12:00 Category 2 169 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 148 -25.9, 36.5
GREEN
32 14 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -26.4, 37.5
GREEN
33 15 Feb 2026 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 130 -26.7, 38.2
GREEN
34 15 Feb 2026 06:00 Category 1 137 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 120 -26.6, 39.2
GREEN
35 15 Feb 2026 12:00 Category 1 137 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 120 -26.5, 40.2
GREEN
36 15 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 1 137 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 120 -26, 40.9
GREEN
37 16 Feb 2026 00:00 Category 1 127 no people 130000 people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -25.4, 41.4
GREEN
38 16 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 95 no people 2.2 million people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -25, 41.9
GREEN
39 16 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 106 no people 510000 people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -24.9, 42.5
GREEN
40 16 Feb 2026 18:00 Category 1 137 no people 520000 people Tropical Cyclone 120 -25.3, 43.8
GREEN
41 17 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -27.1, 44.4
GREEN
42 17 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 116 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -28.9, 43.7
GREEN
43 17 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 116 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -30.3, 42.5
GREEN
44 17 Feb 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 116 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -31.5, 42
GREEN
45 18 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -33.1, 41.6
GREEN
46 18 Feb 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -34.4, 41.4
GREEN
47 18 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -35.6, 41.6
GREEN
47 19 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -38.2, 42.9
GREEN
47 19 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -41.1, 46.3
GREEN
47 20 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -44.6, 52.7
GREEN
47 20 Feb 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -47.7, 61.2
GREEN
47 21 Feb 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -50.5, 70.8
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar 4.5 million people
Mozambique 1.2 million people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toliara Madagascar 1.4 million people
Inhambane Mozambique 1.2 million people
Antananarivo Madagascar 550000 people
Toamasina Madagascar 2.3 million people
Mahajanga Madagascar 220000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Ampanihy AMP 235 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
Betioky BKU unknown 0
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Antsalova WAQ 168 Civ. Unpaved No 3000
Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Andriamena WAD unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Faux Cap Madagascar
Androka MGADK Madagascar
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
Crozet Island French Southern and Antarctic Lands
Vilanculas Mozambique
Bazaruto Island Mozambique
Andevoranto Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
Foulpointe Madagascar
Fenerive Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Feb 2026 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (113 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 42 of 16 Feb 2026 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.6
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.5
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.5
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.4
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.4
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.4
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.3
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Baly Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2026 07:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2026 07:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Banga Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
10 Feb 2026 23:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2026 09:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2026 06:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
10 Feb 2026 22:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2026 06:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2026 06:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2026 11:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2026 03:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 05:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 00:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 10:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 13:00 Camo Mozambique  0.1
10 Feb 2026 22:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Amado Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 12:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2026 21:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
10 Feb 2026 21:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 05:00 Manica Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 05:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 12:00 Guinjala Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
11 Feb 2026 00:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2026 05:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 01:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2026 03:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
12 Feb 2026 07:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 13:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 02:00 Miary Madagascar  0.1
12 Feb 2026 14:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2026 01:00 Andavadoaka Madagascar  0.1