Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OPHELIA-17
in Ireland, United Kingdom

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA-17 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Ireland, United Kingdom
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Oct 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability -- (Ireland)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

148 km/h Current

Up to 22000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 09 Oct 2017 09:00 93 No people No people
Green 2 09 Oct 2017 15:00 120 No people No people
Green 3 09 Oct 2017 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 4 10 Oct 2017 03:00 139 No people No people
Green 5 10 Oct 2017 09:00 139 No people No people
Green 6 10 Oct 2017 15:00 130 No people No people
Green 7 10 Oct 2017 21:00 130 No people No people
Green 8 11 Oct 2017 03:00 130 No people No people
Green 9 11 Oct 2017 09:00 139 No people No people
Green 10 11 Oct 2017 15:00 130 No people No people
Green 11 11 Oct 2017 21:00 139 790 thousand No people Portugal, Ireland
Green 12 12 Oct 2017 03:00 148 2.9 million 30 thousand Ireland
Green 13 12 Oct 2017 09:00 148 2.7 million 10 thousand Ireland, United Kingdom
Green 14 12 Oct 2017 15:00 148 4.5 million 20 thousand Ireland, United Kingdom

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Oct 2017 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 31.1, -39.9
GREEN
2 09 Oct 2017 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 31.4, -39.9
GREEN
3 09 Oct 2017 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 31.5, -39.6
GREEN
4 10 Oct 2017 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 32.3, -39
GREEN
5 10 Oct 2017 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 31.9, -38.8
GREEN
6 10 Oct 2017 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 31.5, -38.3
GREEN
7 10 Oct 2017 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 31.1, -38
GREEN
8 11 Oct 2017 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 30.7, -37.6
GREEN
9 11 Oct 2017 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 30.2, -37
GREEN
10 11 Oct 2017 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 30, -36.5
GREEN
11 11 Oct 2017 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 30, -36.1
GREEN
12 12 Oct 2017 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 30, -35.7
GREEN
13 12 Oct 2017 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 30.3, -35.6
GREEN
14 12 Oct 2017 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 30.5, -35.6
GREEN
14 13 Oct 2017 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 30.9, -34.9
GREEN
14 13 Oct 2017 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 31.6, -33.4
GREEN
14 14 Oct 2017 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 32.7, -30.8
GREEN
14 14 Oct 2017 12:00 Category 1 139 140000 people no people 34.4, -27.3 Portugal
GREEN
14 15 Oct 2017 12:00 Category 1 139 200000 people no people 40.9, -18.8 Ireland
GREEN
14 16 Oct 2017 12:00 Category 1 120 4.3 million people 23000 people 51, -12.5 United Kingdom
GREEN
14 17 Oct 2017 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 60.5, -5.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Ireland
United Kingdom

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Connacht Ireland 420000 people
Scotland United Kingdom 5.1 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Belmullet BLY unknown 0 3337 km
Benbecula BEB 6 Civ. Paved Yes 5400 3702 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Blacksod Point Ireland 3324 km
Belmullet Ireland 3337 km
Benbecula United Kingdom 3698 km
North Uist United Kingdom 3713 km
Lochmaddy GBLMA United Kingdom 3719 km
Lewis United Kingdom 3788 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Sao Lourenco, Portugal. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2017 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (2 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 12 Oct 2017 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Oct 2017 20:00 Sao Lourenco Portugal  0.1
14 Oct 2017 19:00 Vila do Porto Portugal  0.1