Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 74 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

74 km/h Current

Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 93 1000 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 93 1.2 million No people Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Jamaica
Green 22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 83 1.2 million No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
Green 23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 74 1.5 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis
Green 24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 74 1.5 million No people Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
GREEN
20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15, -54.7
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 <1000 people no people 15.4, -56.6
GREEN
22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 1.1 million people no people 15.3, -58 Antigua and Barbuda
GREEN
23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 1.4 million people no people 15.4, -59.7 Montserrat
GREEN
24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 74 1.2 million people no people 14.9, -61.8 Montserrat
GREEN
24 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -64.2
GREEN
24 14 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -67
GREEN
24 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -69.8
GREEN
24 15 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15, -72.3
GREEN
24 16 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.5, -76.5
GREEN
24 17 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 17, -80.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Dominica
Martinique
Guadeloupe
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Montserrat
Antigua & Barbuda
Barbados

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 110000 people
Montserrat Montserrat -
Antigua & Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda 65000 people
Barbados Barbados 260000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 62 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 85 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 122 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 125 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 129 km
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 133 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 151 km
Moule Guadeloupe City - 166 km
Kingstown Saint George St. Vincent and the Grenadines Capital 17000 people 196 km
Plymouth Saint Anthony Montserrat Capital no people 202 km
Saint John's Antigua and Barbuda Capital 21000 people 245 km
Bridgetown Saint Michael Barbados Capital 96000 people 310 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 65 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 65 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 89 km
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 93 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 107 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 109 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 121 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 131 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 140 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 154 km
Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000 158 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 159 km
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0 179 km
E T Joshua SVD 20 Civ. Paved Yes 4600 204 km
W H Bramble (Abandoned) 12 0 209 km
Montserrat Blackburne MNI unknown 0 213 km
J F Mitchell 4 Civ. Paved No 3600 219 km
V C Bird International ANU 19 Civ. Paved Yes 9000 248 km
Canouan 5 Civ. Paved No 3600 248 km
Union Island UNI unknown 0 256 km
Grantley Adams International BGI 52 Civ. Paved Yes 11000 321 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 61 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 68 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 82 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 86 km
La Trinite Martinique 91 km
Le Robert Martinique 97 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 110 km
Le Marin Martinique 111 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 121 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 121 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 127 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 130 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 132 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 152 km
Vieux Fort Saint Lucia 159 km
Port Louis Guadeloupe 170 km
Kingstown VCKTN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 203 km
Plymouth Montserrat 204 km
Admiralty Bay Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 219 km
Saint Johns AGSJO Antigua and Barbuda 246 km
Parham Harbour Antigua and Barbuda 249 km
Speightstown Barbados 297 km
Bridgetown BBBGI Barbados 308 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 99 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1