Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for XAVIER-18
in Mexico
05 Nov 2018 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone XAVIER-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 93 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 93 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 02 Nov 2018 21:00 83 No people No people
Green 2 03 Nov 2018 03:00 83 No people No people
Green 3 03 Nov 2018 09:00 83 No people No people
Green 4 03 Nov 2018 15:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 03 Nov 2018 21:00 93 No people No people
Green 6 04 Nov 2018 03:00 93 No people No people
Green 7 04 Nov 2018 09:00 93 No people No people
Green 8 04 Nov 2018 15:00 83 No people No people
Green 9 04 Nov 2018 21:00 83 980 thousand No people Mexico
Green 10 05 Nov 2018 03:00 83 1 million No people Mexico
Green 11 05 Nov 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Mexico
Green 12 05 Nov 2018 15:00 93 1 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 02 Nov 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.4, -109
GREEN
 2 03 Nov 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -108.2
GREEN
 3 03 Nov 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.7, -107.7
GREEN
 4 03 Nov 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.3, -107
GREEN
 5 03 Nov 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.6, -106.1
GREEN
 6 04 Nov 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.1, -105.7
GREEN
 7 04 Nov 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.6, -105.9
GREEN
 8 04 Nov 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 17.6, -105.3
GREEN
 9 04 Nov 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 980000 people no people 18.1, -105.5 Mexico
GREEN
 10 05 Nov 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 700000 people no people 18.5, -105.7 Mexico
GREEN
 11 05 Nov 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 200000 people no people 18.4, -105.9 Mexico
GREEN
 12 05 Nov 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 55000 people no people 18.5, -106.2 Mexico
GREEN
 12 06 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 18.7, -107
GREEN
 12 06 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 18.9, -108.3
GREEN
 12 07 Nov 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.9, -109.7
GREEN
 12 07 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 18.8, -111 Mexico
GREEN
 12 08 Nov 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 18.5, -113.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 100000 people 207 km
Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 39000 people 240 km
Armería Colima Mexico City 15000 people 242 km
Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people 249 km
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people 273 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
La Gloria 34 0 184 km
Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 187 km
Autlan 884 0 240 km
Coahuayana 61 0 267 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Chamela Mexico 163 km
El Tabaco Mexico 171 km
Ipala Mexico 202 km
Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico 206 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976 201 km
Trigomil Ayuquila 1993 253 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 05 Nov 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)