Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (21 Jan 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 5.6 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 2.2 million people no people -21.3, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
2 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 3.6 million people no people -19.6, 38.3 Mozambique
GREEN
2 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 4.7 million people no people -18.3, 37.6 Mozambique
GREEN
2 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.4, 36.9 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Malawi

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Nampula Mozambique 3.2 million people
Tete Mozambique 1.1 million people
Southern Malawi 5.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people 369 km
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 591 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 363 km
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 372 km
Chinde INE unknown 0 536 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 559 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 594 km
Pebane PEB unknown 0 629 km
Inhaminga IMG unknown 0 636 km
Bajone BJN unknown 0 639 km
Moma MMW unknown 0 682 km
Mutarara 48 0 727 km
Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 759 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique 366 km
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 367 km
Vilanculas Mozambique 372 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 537 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 540 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 590 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 592 km
Pebane MZPEB Mozambique 628 km
Rio Moebase Mozambique 644 km
Moma MZMMW Mozambique 681 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Chamba, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (105 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 20 Jan 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Beira Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 15:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 15:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 02:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 03:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 16:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 04:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 00:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 04:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1