Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (21 Jan 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

65 km/h Current

Up to 4.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 65 5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
Green 6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 65 5.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
Green 7 21 Jan 2019 12:00 65 4.5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar
Green 8 21 Jan 2019 18:00 65 4.4 million No people Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.5 million people no people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 8600 people no people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
GREEN
5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 680000 people no people -20.9, 38.6 Mozambique
GREEN
6 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 1.6 million people no people -20.1, 38.1 Mozambique
GREEN
7 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.6 million people no people -19.3, 37.4 Mozambique
GREEN
8 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1.8 million people no people -19, 36.4 Mozambique
GREEN
8 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -18.1, 35.9 Mozambique
GREEN
8 22 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -17.5, 36.2 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Malawi
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Tete Mozambique 1.1 million people
Southern Malawi 5.2 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Toliara Madagascar 1.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 134 km
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people 188 km
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people 551 km
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City - 787 km
Morombe Toliara Madagascar City - 788 km
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city - 895 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 42 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 61 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 136 km
Inhaminga IMG unknown 0 162 km
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 180 km
Mutarara 48 0 231 km
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0 307 km
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 353 km
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 550 km
Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200 789 km
Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500 822 km
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500 902 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 47 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 53 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 134 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 161 km
Beira MZBEW Mozambique 188 km
Nova Mambone Mozambique 261 km
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique 271 km
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 309 km
Vilanculas Mozambique 351 km
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique 549 km
Morombe MGMXM Madagascar 788 km
Antongo Madagascar 800 km
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar 856 km
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar 895 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (112 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 21 Jan 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.9
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Amado Mozambique  0.9
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 12:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 11:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 05:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 07:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 00:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 09:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1