Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 111 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (26 Apr 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
26 Apr 2022 16:00 - 26 Apr 2022 22:00

in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
Overall 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)
Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Tropical Cyclone or higher
Countries
Green 1 23 Apr 2022 04:00 93 2.1 million No people Mozambique
Green 2 23 Apr 2022 10:00 111 1.3 million No people Mozambique
Green 3 23 Apr 2022 16:00 111 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 4 23 Apr 2022 22:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 24 Apr 2022 04:00 93 Few people No people Mozambique
Green 6 24 Apr 2022 10:00 83 Few people No people Mozambique
Green 7 24 Apr 2022 16:00 83 Few people No people Mozambique
Green 8 24 Apr 2022 22:00 111 320 thousand No people Mozambique
Green 9 25 Apr 2022 04:00 120 690 thousand No people Mozambique, Madagascar
Green 10 25 Apr 2022 10:00 120 640 thousand No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 11 25 Apr 2022 16:00 102 530 thousand No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 12 25 Apr 2022 22:00 111 1.5 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 13 26 Apr 2022 04:00 102 1.3 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 14 26 Apr 2022 10:00 102 1.2 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 15 26 Apr 2022 16:00 93 1.5 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 16 26 Apr 2022 22:00 65 1.3 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique
Green 17 27 Apr 2022 04:00 56 1.1 million No people Madagascar, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 23 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 1.3 million people -14.5, 41.2
GREEN
2 23 Apr 2022 10:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 1.3 million people -15.2, 40.5 Mozambique
GREEN
3 23 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 1.7 million people -16.1, 40 Mozambique
GREEN
4 23 Apr 2022 22:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.6, 39.9
GREEN
5 24 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical storm 65 no people <1000 people -17, 39.6
GREEN
6 24 Apr 2022 10:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -17.9, 39.4
GREEN
7 24 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.4, 39.5
GREEN
8 24 Apr 2022 22:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.8, 39.7
GREEN
9 25 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -19.8, 39.9
GREEN
10 25 Apr 2022 10:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -20.3, 40.3
GREEN
11 25 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -21.3, 40.9
GREEN
12 25 Apr 2022 22:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -22.1, 41.2
GREEN
13 26 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 280000 people -22.7, 41.6
GREEN
14 26 Apr 2022 10:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 690000 people -23.1, 42.3
GREEN
15 26 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1 million people -23.4, 43.2
GREEN
16 26 Apr 2022 22:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 450000 people -23.6, 44.2 Madagascar
GREEN
17 27 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -23.8, 46.1 Madagascar
GREEN
17 27 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.3, 49
GREEN
17 28 Apr 2022 04:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.7, 51.5
GREEN
17 28 Apr 2022 16:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -20.3, 52.8
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toliara Madagascar
Nampula Mozambique
Zambezia Mozambique

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Betioky BKU unknown 0
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500
Moma MMW unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
Moma MZMMW Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 26 Apr 2022 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (161 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 23 Apr 2022 04:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Amado Mozambique  0.5
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
23 Apr 2022 18:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.4
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Mocambique Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Cabaceira Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Lumbo Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 17:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 20:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 20:00 Metula Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 09:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 09:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 09:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 09:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Sanhute Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Mossuril Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 19:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 18:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
23 Apr 2022 12:00 Matibane Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 20:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 11:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 10:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
23 Apr 2022 16:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.3
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Namacoto Mozambique  0.3
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
26 Apr 2022 10:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 21:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Larde Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2022 01:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 21:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2022 01:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 21:00 Momade Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2022 02:00 Angoche Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 12:00 Alimperia Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 12:00 Messonta Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2022 00:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2022 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
24 Apr 2022 00:00 Aube Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 17:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 23:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2022 12:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2022 22:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2022 11:00 Miaola Mozambique  0.1
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Lunga Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 06:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 13:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 16:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 08:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 17:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 14:00 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 15:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2022 15:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
26 Apr 2022 05:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 15:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
26 Apr 2022 15:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2022 15:00 Formone Mozambique  0.1
26 Apr 2022 16:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1