Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 04 Jan 2024 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

04 Jan 2024 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	111 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 01 Jan 2024 12:00 - 02 Jan 2024 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	111 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 12:00	83	8.2 million	No people	Madagascar
2	01 Jan 2024 00:00	65	2.7 million	No people	Madagascar
3	01 Jan 2024 12:00	111	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar
4	02 Jan 2024 00:00	83	3.3 million	No people	Madagascar
5	02 Jan 2024 12:00	74	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar
6	03 Jan 2024 00:00	83	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar
7	03 Jan 2024 12:00	65	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar
8	04 Jan 2024 00:00	65	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-20.4, 39
2	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	41000 people	-20.7, 40.8
3	01 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	520000 people	-21.5, 42.7
4	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.5 million people	-21.4, 44.9	Madagascar
5	02 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	1.7 million people	-22.1, 47.5	Madagascar
6	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-22.7, 49.8
7	03 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-24.2, 51.7
8	04 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-26.3, 54.2
8	04 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-28.4, 57.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	3.2 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	2.7 million people
Toliara	Madagascar	500000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Farafangana	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	25000 people
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Farafangana	RVA	8	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3400
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farafangana	MGRVA	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer		Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Antongo		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 04 Jan 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.