Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FELLENG-13
in Madagascar
03 Feb 2013 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • JRC
Impact Single TC
    Impact based on all weather systems in the area

    Impact

      Tropical Cyclone FELLENG-13 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

      Meteorological source GDACS
      Exposed countries Madagascar
      Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
      Maximum wind speed 232 km/h
      Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (30 Jan 14:00 UTC)
      Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

      GDACS Score

      GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
      For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
        Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
      Current 74 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
      Overall 232 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

      Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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      Wind

        74 km/h Current Max.

        Up to 1.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

        Impact Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
          Tropical Storm or higher          		 Population in
          Cat 1. or higher          		 Countries
          Green 1 26 Jan 2013 12:00 121 No people No people
          Green 2 27 Jan 2013 00:00 130 No people No people
          Green 3 27 Jan 2013 12:00 130 No people No people
          Green 4 28 Jan 2013 00:00 138 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 5 28 Jan 2013 12:00 138 No people No people
          Green 6 29 Jan 2013 00:00 195 No people No people
          Green 7 29 Jan 2013 12:00 212 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 8 30 Jan 2013 00:00 212 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 9 30 Jan 2013 12:00 232 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 10 30 Jan 2013 18:00 195 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 11 31 Jan 2013 06:00 158 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 12 31 Jan 2013 18:00 130 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 13 01 Feb 2013 06:00 111 No people No people
          Green 14 01 Feb 2013 18:00 130 No people No people
          Green 15 02 Feb 2013 06:00 121 No people No people
          Green 16 02 Feb 2013 18:00 93 No people No people
          Green 17 03 Feb 2013 06:00 74 No people No people
          Green 18 03 Feb 2013 18:00 74 No people No people

          Bulletin Timeline

            Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
            (SSHS)             		Max winds
            (km/h)             		Population in
            Cat.1 or higher             		Population in
            Tropical Storm
            or higher             		Location (lat, lon) Countries
            green
            		 1 1/26/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -12.9, 65.5
            green
            		 2 1/27/2013 Tropical storm 64 no people no people -13.6, 63.9
            green
            		 3 1/27/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -13.6, 62.3
            green
            		 4 1/28/2013 Tropical storm 64 no people no people -13.2, 59.9
            green
            		 5 1/28/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 no people no people -13.3, 58.4
            green
            		 6 1/29/2013 Category 1 121 no people no people -13.5, 56.5
            green
            		 7 1/29/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 2 167 no people no people -14.1, 54.9
            green
            		 8 1/30/2013 Category 3 195 no people 35000 people -14.7, 53.8 Madagascar
            green
            		 9 1/30/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 4 212 no people 49000 people -16.2, 52.6 Madagascar
            green
            		 10 1/30/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 3 195 no people 1.2 million people -17, 52.2 Madagascar
            green
            		 11 1/31/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 2 158 no people 1.8 million people -18.2, 51.1 Madagascar
            green
            		 12 1/31/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 130 no people 1 million people -20, 50.5 Madagascar
            green
            		 13 2/1/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 no people no people -21.3, 50.7
            green
            		 14 2/1/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 130 no people no people -23.7, 51.5
            green
            		 15 2/2/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 1 121 no people no people -25.9, 51.2
            green
            		 16 2/2/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 93 no people no people -27.9, 51.4
            green
            		 17 2/3/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people -31.1, 52.8
            green
            		 18 2/3/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people -33.4, 54.3
            green
            		 18 2/4/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -36.2, 56.3
            **
            Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
            Actual track of the current bulletin
            The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
            Download:



            Exposed population - AoIs

            Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

            Provinces

            Country Region Province
            Madagascar Antsiranana
            Madagascar Fianarantsoa
            Madagascar Toamasina

            Populated places

            Name Region Province Country City class Population
            Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
            Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -

            Critical infrastructure

            Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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            Rainfall

            Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

            ...

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            StormSurge

            0.2 m

            The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 30 Jan 2013 14:00 UTC .

            The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

            Locations affected by Storm surge (131 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 03 Feb 2013 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

            Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
            31 Jan 2013 02:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 14:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 15:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 15:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 21:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
            30 Jan 2013 22:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 01:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 04:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 10:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 10:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 10:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 10:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 11:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 11:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 11:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 13:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 13:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 15:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 16:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 16:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 16:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 16:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 16:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 17:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 18:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 19:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 20:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 20:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 20:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 23:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 23:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 23:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 23:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
            31 Jan 2013 23:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 01:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 01:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 01:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 01:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 01:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 02:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 02:00 Esama Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 02:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 07:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 07:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 07:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 07:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 07:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 10:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
            02 Feb 2013 16:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1