Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GEZANI-26
in Madagascar, Mozambique

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone GEZANI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001256
Name GEZANI-26
From - To 06 Feb - 13 Feb
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 211 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
WMO-RSMC La Réunion 211 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS JTWC 204 km/h n.a. n.a. 2.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 216 km/h 0.7 m 537 mm 2.5
GFS 169 km/h 0.6 m 475 mm 0.5
ECMWF 180 km/h 0.7 m 544 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone 10-20252026 (ECHO 11 Feb 2026)Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:08

  • A tropical storm formed over the South West Indian Ocean, north-east of the coast of eastern Madagascar. On 6 February at 00:00 UTC, its centre was located offshore, approximately 600 km northeast of Mauritius and 1 000 km northeast of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 63 km/h.
  • On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to continue moving south-west and then east over the Ocean, passing north of Reunion and Mauritius between 8 and 9 February, strengthening to a Category 3 tropical cyclone, and making landfall over eastern Madagascar on 11 February with maximum sustained winds of 106 km/h.
  • Madagascar was affected by the tropical cyclone FYTIA between 29 January and 4 February, which caused 12 fatalities and 31 480 displaced people.
  • Over the next 72 hours, showers are forecast over Madagascar.
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone GEZANI, update (ECHO 13 Feb 2026)Mon, 09 Feb 2026 11:48

  • The tropical storm GEZANI, which formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean on 6 February, passed north of Mauritius and Réunion on 7-8 February, and it has been approaching Madagascar. On 9 February, at 00:00 UTC, its centre was located offshore, approximately 630 east of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 84 km/h.
  • On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to continue moving west, strengthening to a Category 4 tropical cyclone, and making landfall between Mananara Avaratra and Vatomandry, in the province of Tomasina, Atsinanana region, eastern Madagascar on 10 February with maximum sustained winds of 211 km/h.
  • Madagascar was affected by Tropical Cyclone Fytia between 29 January and 4 February, which caused 14 fatalities and affected 85 642 people.
  • Over the next 72 hours, strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast over north-western Madagascar.
GEZANI-26 - EC/ECHO daily mapMon, 09 Feb 2026 18:33

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone GEZANI, update (ECHO 13 Feb 2026)Wed, 11 Feb 2026 10:55

  • Tropical Cyclone?GEZANI made landfall near the city of Toamasina on the east coast of Madagascar on?10?February at?16:00?UTC, with maximum sustained winds of approximately?175?km?/h. After landfall, it began to weaken while moving inland, downgrading to a tropical storm intensity.
  • As of?11?February?00:00?UTC, the centre of GEZANI was located inland, about?91?km northeast of the capital, Antananarivo, with maximum sustained winds of up to?95?km?/h (tropical storm).
  • GEZANI is expected to continue crossing the island from east to west on?11?February, weakening further. Later that night, it will emerge over the Mozambique Channel and may re-intensify while moving southwestward. Between?13?and?14?February, the system could approach the southeastern coast of Mozambique.
  • On 11 February, moderate to very heavy rain is expected across the central and western regions of Madagascar. On 12 February, no relevant rain is expected across the country.
  • The Meteorological Institute of Madagascar has issued red warnings for river-flood risk on several rivers in both eastern and western Madagascar.

Madagascar - Tropical cyclone GEZANI, update (ECHO 13 Feb 2026)Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:54

  • On 10 February at 16:00 UTC, Tropical Cyclone GEZANI made landfall near the city of Toamasina on the eastern coast of Madagascar as a Category 4. On 11 February, it moved inland across the northern part of the country as a tropical storm. On 12 February 00:00 UTC, GEZANI centre was located in the Mozambique Channel, about 235 km west of the west coast, with maximum sustained winds up to 95km/h.
  • The passage of GEZANI, as of 12 February, caused 31 fatalities, 29 in Toamasina and two in Ambatondrazaka cities, four missing people, 356 people seriously injured, and it affected 250 406 people, 36 807 houses damaged and 17 628 houses totally destroyed, with 6 874 who have been displaced across 28 accomodation centres distributed in four regions.
  • The Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR867) was activated on  11 February to monitor the situation.
  • GEZANI is forecast to continue moving west-southwest over the Mozambique Channel, intensifing to category 3 and passing by the Mozambique coast on 14 February with maxumum sustained wind up to 190 km/h.
  • On 12 February, more rainfall and strong winds are still expected in central-western Madagascar. A red alert for strong winds and flooding has been issued.
GEZANI-26 - EC/ECHO daily mapThu, 12 Feb 2026 18:08

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Madagascar, Mozambique - Tropical cyclone GEZANI, update (ECHO 13 Feb 2026)Fri, 13 Feb 2026 10:52

  • On 12 February, tropical cyclone GEZANI continued moving south-west over the Mozambique Channel toward southern Mozambique and far off the coast of western Madagascar as a tropical storm, further strengthening. On 13 February at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea, approximately 260 km northeast of the city of Inhambane (far southern Mozambique), with maximum sustained winds of 171 km/h (tropical cyclone).
  • As of 13 of February, according to the BNGRC, its passage over central Madagascar on 10-11 February caused 40 fatalities, six missing persons, 427 injured people, 16 318 displaced people (of whom a large part are across 48 shelters), a total of 269 407 affected people, 18 797 destroyed houses and 51 760 damaged houses.
  • On the forecast track, GEZANI is expected to pass very close (without making landfall) to the Inhambane city area on 13 February very late in the evening (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 190 km/h.
  • The Copernicus EMS was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 11 February.
  • On 12 February, Madagascar requested assistance through the UCPM in the form of expertise and technical support, in-kind assistance (including shelter, WASH, NFIs, and medical supplies), modules, and transport and logistics support.
  • Over the next 96 hours, heavy rainfall with locally very heavy rainfall is still forecast over most of Madagascar (except the eastern area), while heavy rainfall is forecast over southern Mozambique starting for the next 72 hours.
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone GEZANI, update (ECHO 13 Feb 2026)Tue, 10 Feb 2026 11:24

  • On 9 February, tropical cyclone GEZANI continued moving west over the southern Indian Ocean toward eastern Madagascar as a tropical storm, strengthening. On 10 February at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean, approximately 175 km east of the Toamasina city area (central-eastern Madagascar), with maximum sustained winds of 177 km/h (tropical cyclone).
  • On the forecast track, GEZANI is expected to make landfall over the Toamasina city area on 10 February during the mid-afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 232 km/h. After that, it is forecast to continue moving westward inland over central Madagascar on 11 February, weakening into a tropical storm.
  • Moreover, the previous passage of the tropical cyclone FYTIA over the same area from 31 January to 1 February caused more casualties and damage. The BNGRC reports, as of 10 February, 15 fatalities, seven injured people, 26 959 displaced people, 85 642 affected people and 19 866 affected houses.
  • Over the next 72 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over eastern, central and northern Madagascar.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

MADAGASCAR, CICLONE GEZANI: MEDICI DEL MONDO SI MOBILITA PER AIUTARE L.. 2/13/2026 11:16:00 AM.

13 febbraio – Il ciclone Gezani, che ha colpito il Madagascar nella serata di martedì, ha causato, secondo i primi bilanci ufficiali, almeno 20 morti, 33 feriti e 15 dispersi oltre a ingenti danni materiali Le squadre di Medici del Mondo pr
...(more)
MADAGASCAR, CICLONE GEZANI: MEDICI DEL MONDO SI MOBILITA PER AIUTARE L.. 2/13/2026 9:53:00 AM.

Roma 13 feb - Il ciclone Gezani, che ha colpito il Madagascar nella serata di martedì, ha causato, secondo i primi bilanci ufficiali, almeno 20 morti, 33 feriti e 15 dispersi, oltre a ingenti danni materiali. Le squadre di Medici del Mondo
...(more)
Cyclone Gezani : au moins 31 morts à Madagascar, la ville de Tamatave .. 2/12/2026 3:05:00 AM.

Le phénomène a frappé mardi soir la côte est de la Grande Île touchant directement Tamatave (Toamasina) la deuxième ville du pays. Des rafales atteignant 250 km/h ont provoqué d’importantes destructions. D’après le Bureau national de gestio
...(more)
11 feb 2026, 11:50 Lorenzo Badellino Cronaca meteo: Ciclone tropicale .. 2/11/2026 11:54:00 AM.

Il ciclone Gezani visto dal satellite. Il ciclone tropicale Gezani ha colpito il Madagascar nella serata del 10 febbraio 2026 come tempesta equivalente ad un uragano di categoria 3 , causando almeno nove morti e 19 feriti, principalmente pe
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), WMO (1), INFORM (2), (1),