Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KOTO-25
in Viet Nam, Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone KOTO-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001236
Name KOTO-25
From - To 24 Nov - 02 Dec
Exposed countries Viet Nam, Philippines
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (01 Dec 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 148 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 187 km/h 0.8 m 1210 mm 0.5
GFS 133 km/h 0.9 m 997 mm 0.5
ECMWF 72 km/h 0.7 m 1111 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Philippines - Tropical cyclone THIRTYTHREE (ECHO 30 Nov 2025)Tue, 25 Nov 2025 10:07

  • Tropical cyclone THIRTYTHREE - defined VERBENA by the Philippine authorities - formed over the Philippine Sea on 22 November. It moved northwestward, crossing northern Mindanao and the Visayas on 24–25 November as a tropical depression. On 25 November at 6:00 (UTC), its centre was located near the coastal areas of Cuyo island, Palawan province, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gusts up to 77 km/h.
  • Following its influence over the southern Philippines, combined with the effects of the Shear Line, 2,471 people have been preventively evacuated in five regions, and almost 47,000 have been affected across three provinces of the CARAGA region, northern Mindanao.
  • THIRTYTHREE is expected to continue northwestward, passing near Culion Island in northern Palawan before entering the South China Sea, where it may intensify.
  • For the next three days, moderate to locally heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast across much of the Philippines. A tropical depression warning remains in effect for the western and southern Philippines.

Philippines, Viet Nam - Tropical cyclone KOTO, update (ECHO 01 Dec 2025)Wed, 26 Nov 2025 11:44

  • On 25 November, tropical cyclone KOTO (named "Verbena" in the Philippines) passed over the northern Palawan islands, western Philippines, with maximum sustained winds up to 93 km/h (tropical storm). On 26 November at 0:00 UTC, its centre was located offshore over the eastern South China Sea, approximately 880 km east of the coast of southern Viet Nam, with maximum sustained winds of 102 km/h.
  • According to NDRRMC, the passage of KOTO across northern Mindanao, southern Visayas and northern Palawan resulted in two still missing persons, more than 82,800 displaced people and a total of nearly 275,500 affected people.
  • KOTO is expected to continue north-west over the South China Sea from 26 November to 1 December, strengthening. It is forecast to not reach the coast of central Viet Nam before 1 December.
  • Over the next 96 hours, more heavy rainfall with locally very heavy rainfall is still forecast over most of the Philippines.  Heavy rainfall is also forecast over central-southern Viet Nam starting from 29 November.
KOTO-25 - EC/ECHO daily mapWed, 26 Nov 2025 18:42

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Viet Nam - Tropical cyclone KOTO, update (ECHO 06 Dec 2025)Mon, 01 Dec 2025 10:59

  • Tropical Cyclone Koto is moving southwestward over the western South China Sea. As of 1 December at 00:00 UTC, its center was located approximately 280 km east of Hoai Tan City, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm strength).
  • Following its influence over the coastal areas of western Vietnam, media reports indicate three fatalities and one missing person.
  • Koto is expected to continue southwestward while weakening and could approach the southwestern coast of Vietnam on 4 December as a tropical depression.
  • From 1 to 4 December, moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast across most of the country, particularly in the western and southwestern regions.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2025. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Verbena intensifies into severe tropical storm 11/26/2025 2:26:00 AM.

Tropical Cyclone Verbena has intensified into a severe tropical storm, according to state weather bureau PAGASA on Wednesday morning. “As of 8:00 a.m. today, Tropical Storm ‘Verbena’ (11b) (international name ‘KOTO’) has intensified into a
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),